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Brad_ATX

Baseball Postseason Chatter

202 posts in this topic





We aren't even halfway through the conference schedule. Too early to speculate IMO. If we win most of the next 8 road games then it becomes a different story.

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Still a long way to go for sure, but it's fun to track and talk about.  Hell, they start Bracketology for hoops around January, so why not see what the landscape is for baseball too.

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1 hour ago, ellitor said:

We aren't even halfway through the conference schedule. Too early to speculate IMO. If we win most of the next 8 road games then it becomes a different story.

True....and keep in mind that of the total of  31 games played this year, only 4 were true road games.   Gonna be hitting the road a lot for the rest of the season and things are tougher with out of town games.

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4 hours ago, boomstick said:

https://d1baseball.com/projections/2017-midseason-field-64-projections/

D1 Baseball has Auburn as a 2 seed in Norman.

That's their projections if seeding were done today cause of our RPI, they did note that as long we continue to win our RPI will rise accordingly as we play more top 100 and top 50 teams and we will probably get a host. We have 18 more games against teams currently ranked in the top 58 for RPI 12 of which are on the road.

Edited by wareagle13

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Those are interesting destinations.  We seem to always have Clemson or Florida St

 

Edited by AUBwins

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looks like it will be an ACC team,,,one way or the other.....hoping for Clemson...

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24 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Baseball America (4/19) has us visiting the Dirtbags.

For those who don't know like myself til a minute ago, Dirtbags is the actual name Long Beach St uses for their baseball team. I thought Brad was insulting them in his post but apparently not.

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13 minutes ago, AU64 said:

looks like it will be an ACC team,,,one way or the other.....hoping for Clemson...

It won't be easy but if we can finish 1st or 2nd in the SECw we will host a region. Series vs Arky, Miss St, & LSU are huge.

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9 minutes ago, ellitor said:

It won't be easy but if we can finish 1st or 2nd in the SECw we will host a region. Series vs Arky, Miss St, & LSU are huge.

That's three teams we're going to have to pitch lights out against, all three love the long ball.  Mississippi State did get poked in the eye last night, but if you get a chance take a look at Brent Rooker in the conference's offensive statistical leaders...tops in just about every category.  Wow.

http://a.espncdn.com/sec/baseball/2017/lgplyrs.htm#leagp.ldr

 

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1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

18 SEC wins is what I think we need to host.

IDK. That projects us to be in a 3 way for 4th overall in the conference per WarreNolan.com & tied for 3rd in the SECw. Of the 3 teams predicted ahead of us & the 2 we are predicted to tie with we would have the lowest RP of the 6 teams. I don't see 6 SEC teams getting to host. If we can get 2 of the series mentioned above & not swept in the other then we will have a real shot.

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http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/rpi-live following the arkansas series win nolan has us up 6 spots to 22. If we can sweep bama, take the series from ole miss, and win 1 of 2 between LSU and MSU we'll be hosting for sure, that would put us around 19-20 wins in the sec, and we could have an outside chance at a super regional if some key teams ahead of us drop a few games they should win and we make a run in the SEC tourny, but i'd rather us not tax our arms in the tourny and instead focus on NCAA play.

ETA:
As an FYI, we could sweep bama and our RPI ranking would go down, Miss State did just that, though i believe it was more due to team's passing them, than their actual score going down. But that could happen to us as well.

Edited by wareagle13

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2 hours ago, wareagle13 said:

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/rpi-live following the arkansas series win nolan has us up 6 spots to 22. If we can sweep bama, take the series from ole miss, and win 1 of 2 between LSU and MSU we'll be hosting for sure, that would put us around 19-20 wins in the sec, and we could have an outside chance at a super regional if some key teams ahead of us drop a few games they should win and we make a run in the SEC tourny, but i'd rather us not tax our arms in the tourny and instead focus on NCAA play.

We need to sweep Bama, win every other series, get deep into the SEC Tourney, & have the RPI finish in the top 12 to have any shot to host a Super Region. The top half of our resume is very strong no doubt but we also have bad losses to GW (RPI 208), Lipscomb (RPI 166), & Presbyterian (RPI 171) that are holding us back compared to other teams we are competing with to be a Super Region host.  Of those teams we are competing with 1 team has 2, a few have 1, & the rest have 0 bad losses of RPI 150 or lower.

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5 hours ago, ellitor said:

We need to sweep Bama, win every other series, get deep into the SEC Tourney, & have the RPI finish in the top 12 to have any shot to host a Super Region. The top half of our resume is very strong no doubt but we also have bad losses to GW (RPI 208), Lipscomb (RPI 166), & Presbyterian (RPI 171) that are holding us back compared to other teams we are competing with to be a Super Region host.  Of those teams we are competing with 1 team has 2, a few have 1, & the rest have 0 bad losses of RPI 150 or lower.

And that's why i stated that we would need teams in front of us to falter. and we would have to win strongly and make a run. I'm not unaware of the requirements. But it's not something outside the realm of possibility and this is a forum for chatter about the post season. Do I think auburn ends up a national seed? No, we'd need to finish around 21-22 sec wins like you said, and because unfortunately the SEC is cannibalizing itself, everyone is good and no cream is rising to the top. But if we take every series from here on out, we'd have series wins against 7 top 50 rpi teams. We'd have a resume worthy of national seed. It's entirely possible that 8 teams would have better resumes, but we could conceivably be in the discussion. And that's why i brought it up here, for discussion!

ETA:
Last year the SEC had 4 national seeds, not a single one had more than 20 conference wins and number 1 overall florida had 19 conference wins. They didn't have the bad the three bad losses we had but each had 1 or 2 except for florida who had none. And who knows maybe those three teams we lost too will kick it into high gear and win out and shoot their RPI's up helping us out. There's a lotta ball to play and i look forward to cheering my tigers on and expecting the best outta them.

Edited by wareagle13
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1 hour ago, wareagle13 said:

And that's why i stated that we would need teams in front of us to falter. and we would have to win strongly and make a run. I'm not unaware of the requirements. But it's not something outside the realm of possibility and this is a forum for chatter about the post season. Do I think auburn ends up a national seed? No, we'd need to finish around 21-22 sec wins like you said, and because unfortunately the SEC is cannibalizing itself, everyone is good and no cream is rising to the top. But if we take every series from here on out, we'd have series wins against 7 top 50 rpi teams. We'd have a resume worthy of national seed. It's entirely possible that 8 teams would have better resumes, but we could conceivably be in the discussion. And that's why i brought it up here, for discussion!

ETA:
Last year the SEC had 4 national seeds, not a single one had more than 20 conference wins and number 1 overall florida had 19 conference wins. They didn't have the bad the three bad losses we had but each had 1 or 2 except for florida who had none. And who knows maybe those three teams we lost too will kick it into high gear and win out and shoot their RPI's up helping us out. There's a lotta ball to play and i look forward to cheering my tigers on and expecting the best outta them.

I was not  chastising you in anyway. My apologies if my post came across that way. I just posted with the depth I did because in your OP it came across as you dismissing the SEC Tourney's role in what we would need to be a Top 8 national seed in the NCAA Tourney plus the splitting of the LSU & Miss St series. We have no shot of getting a Top 8 national seed without getting to at least the semis in the SEC Tourney & taking both series against LSU & Miss St. Just wanted to give a clear view. Very, very tall order to get a top 8 seed no doubt but given this team's resilience it is doable.

Edit: Saw where you said we would need a run in the SEC tourney to have a shot to make a Top 8 seed but didn't want to tax arms to make a top 8 seed. My mistake. I didn't comprehend it that way earlier.

Edited by ellitor

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1 hour ago, ellitor said:

I was not  chastising you in anyway. My apologies if my post came across that way. I just posted with the depth I did because in your OP it came across as you dismissing the SEC Tourney's role in what we would need to be a Top 8 national seed in the NCAA Tourney plus the splitting of the LSU & Miss St series. We have no shot of getting a Top 8 national seed without getting to at least the semis in the SEC Tourney & taking both series against LSU & Miss St. Just wanted to give a clear view. Very, very tall order to get a top 8 seed no doubt but given this team's resilience it is doable.

I could be wrong here....

but if we beat MSU, sweep bama and split LSU/OM we could end up at #1 in the SEC overall. Seems that would do it, right?

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21 minutes ago, FoundationEagle said:

I could be wrong here....

but if we beat MSU, sweep bama and split LSU/OM we could end up at #1 in the SEC overall. Seems that would do it, right?

With the 3 bad losses dragging us down compared to the teams we are competing against for a Top 8 national seed, I don't think so. That comes out to 20 SEC wins if the other series wins in your post besides Bama are splits. As WE13 alluded to we likely need 21-22 in the SEC plus get to the SEC Tourney semis at minimum IMO.

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32 minutes ago, ellitor said:

With the 3 bad losses dragging us down compared to the teams we are competing against for a Top 8 national seed, I don't think so. That comes out to 20 SEC wins if the other series wins in your post besides Bama are splits. As WE13 alluded to we likely need 21-22 in the SEC plus get to the SEC Tourney semis at minimum IMO.

I would hope that those early season losses .....before the team had jelled, would not weigh so heavily on the decision that affects what is a different team now.. 

That is the downside of computers and their reputed "objectivity"....and why the decisions should ultimately be made by humans who are hopefully able to see the "bigger picture".

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57 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I would hope that those early season losses .....before the team had jelled, would not weigh so heavily on the decision that affects what is a different team now.. 

That is the downside of computers and their reputed "objectivity"....and why the decisions should ultimately be made by humans who are hopefully able to see the "bigger picture".

Has nothing to do with computers. If you are looking at the totality of a resume it can easily be factored in by humans or just as easily forgiven by them by having the 4th best record in the nation versus RPI top 50 teams.

Either human perspective would have legitimate points.

Edited by ellitor
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Conference play will speak for itself when the smoke clears.  Seems like we say this every week, and we do, this weekend will be a huge challenge.  On the road in Starkville will be something these guys have not ever seen.  Playing MSU for the division lead at Dudy Noble will not be easy, even if they do still love Butch Thompson.  I assume ESPN will feature that game, and J Todd battling B Rooker for the batting title lead.  That place will be completely lathered up.

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32 minutes ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Conference play will speak for itself when the smoke clears.  Seems like we say this every week, and we do, this weekend will be a huge challenge.  On the road in Starkville will be something these guys have not ever seen.  Playing MSU for the division lead at Dudy Noble will not be easy, even if they do still love Butch Thompson.  I assume ESPN will feature that game, and J Todd battling B Rooker for the batting title lead.  That place will be completely lathered up.

The series is set to be...

Fri-Streamed on SEC+
Sat-SEC Network
Sun-SEC Network

Not sure ESPN will do much tv movement for the series given the NBA Playoffs & NFL Draft going on this weekend.

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