Baseball Postseason Chatter

[Harp_AU2013 221]

36 minutes ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Conference play will speak for itself when the smoke clears.  Seems like we say this every week, and we do, this weekend will be a huge challenge.  On the road in Starkville will be something these guys have not ever seen.  Playing MSU for the division lead at Dudy Noble will not be easy, even if they do still love Butch Thompson.  I assume ESPN will feature that game, and J Todd battling B Rooker for the batting title lead.  That place will be completely lathered up.

That stadium will be packed. its not super bulldog weekend crowd but it will be loud. If we can just win the series it will be HUGE. I also thought I ready that if we win 8 of our last 12 (doesn't matter which) we will host a regional.

[boomstick 1,315]

55 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Has nothing to do with computers. If you are looking at the totality of a resume it can easily be factored in by humans or just as easily forgiven by them by having the 4th best record in the nation versus RPI top 50 teams.

Either human perspective would have legitimate points.

Is the field of 64 set solely on RPI? I was thinking it was a committee-style process where RPI weighed heavily. If that's correct, the human element could help us. 

[ellitor 33,062]

14 minutes ago, Harp_AU2013 said:

That stadium will be packed. its not super bulldog weekend crowd but it will be loud. If we can just win the series it will be HUGE. I also thought I ready that if we win 8 of our last 12 (doesn't matter which) we will host a regional.

There's nothing emperically that says that. I've seen Phillip Marshall give that as opinion but I don't agree it's a given. If we sweep Bama & the Rebs & only take 1 in the series versus LSU & Miss St + go 2 & out in the SEC Tourney I think it's iffy that we host in that scenario..

[Harp_AU2013 221]

36 minutes ago, ellitor said:

There's nothing emperically that says that. I've seen Phillip Marshall give that as opinion but I don't agree it's a given. If we sweep Bama & the Rebs & only take 1 in the series versus LSU & Miss St + go 2 & out in the SEC Tourney I think it's iffy that we host in that scenario..

Thanks for the info. I was watching the game yesterday and I thought I heard Gabe say that but they also screwed up the score a few times and the rankings in the west so I guess I should have not trusted it. Regardless, 3 at MSST and 3 at LSU with UAT in the middle at home will be a tough stretch. Those are some hard parks to play in. 

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, boomstick said:

Is the field of 64 set solely on RPI? I was thinking it was a committee-style process where RPI weighed heavily. If that's correct, the human element could help us. 

No. The human element could hurt us too. Some have weighted top tier RPI success more. Others have weighted bad losses more

[ellitor 33,062]

39 minutes ago, Harp_AU2013 said:

3 at MSST and 3 at LSU with UAT in the middle at home will be a tough stretch. Those are some hard parks to play in. 

Yes it is & they are. Miss St has not lost a home series yet & LSU only home series loss is to aTm.

[boomstick 1,315]

24 minutes ago, ellitor said:

No. The human element could hurt us too. Some have weighted top tier RPI success more. Others have weighted bad losses more

Yeah, I'm hoping they see those weaker losses as early season losses and that this team is quite different now than then. I can see them hurting us in some eyes though. The RPI top 50 record is really good, and we've been a different team since the UF series, even without two of our aces for different series. 

[AU64 10,122]

I'm thinking that "bad losses" are used to eliminate / down rate  a team that someone(s) wants to eliminate... and this is just my view, but when looking at a 50+ team season and body to work, to make much if any of an issue over a few games lost early in the year is as noted, something to be used .   What should matter is what is done when playing against good teams ....

So.....as discussed above, we need play well the next few weekends....and I'm not sure we have to win the series against MSU but would be very helpful to get 4 wins against MSU and LSU  and win the OM and bama series ...and can't screw away the UAB game.  

MSU has the best record in the SEC....but they have a number of ugly OOC losses too....so now sure where they fit into the picture for hosting.

Anyway...how I see it...which comes out to 8 more conference wins. . but need to be in the right places too. 

[ellitor 33,062]

3 minutes ago, AU64 said:

MSU has the best record in the SEC....but they have a number of ugly OOC losses too....so now sure where they fit into the picture for hosting.

They only have 1 truly bad OOC loss (RPI 101 or worse: Marist 134). They are in good shape to host right now and they are favored to win their remaining series. If they hold favorite's serve or only lose 1 series to us, LSU, or @ aTm while taking a game in the series they will be hosting a regional.

10 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Anyway...how I see it...which comes out to 8 more conference wins. . but need to be in

Yup. The 8 win scenario I posted earlier is the only 1 I see happening with us maybe not hosting.

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

They only have 1 truly bad OOC loss (RPI 101 or worse: Marist 134). They are in good shape to host right now and they are favored to win their remaining series. If they hold favorite's serve or only lose 1 series to us, LSU, or @ aTm while taking a game in the series they will be hosting a regional.

Yup. The 8 win scenario I posted earlier is the only 1 I see happening with us maybe not hosting.

Sorry...lose track of who is projecting what..  As for RPI, seems that at some point...say below 50 or below 75 or in that range, the differences are negligible if not meaningless.  Computers have the ability to track who wins against whom....but just wondering when 120 plays 150 whether there is really a meaningful difference there.

[ellitor 33,062]

29 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Sorry...lose track of who is projecting what..  As for RPI, seems that at some point...say below 50 or below 75 or in that range, the differences are negligible if not meaningless

If they are in the same group of 50 the difference is considered meaningless. If the difference is more than 50 then it has been considered a meaningful difference by NCAA committes in all sports quite often.

32 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Computers have the ability to track who wins against whom....but just wondering when 120 plays 150 whether there is really a meaningful difference there.

if it's 1 v 1 there isn't  but in this case as stated above we have 3 such bad losses (worse with GW). Miss St only has 1.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

8 more SEC wins would give us 20 on the year. Doesn't matter who you are, if you win 20 games in the SEC, you're probably gonna host. I could see us hosting with 18 SEC wins. Might have to win a few in Hoover, but I don't think these series are necessarily "must wins" (MSU and LSU). 

If you sweep Ole Miss and Bama, you're up to 18. Take 1 against MSU and LSU on the road each, and that's pretty much saying you are "even" as a team. The team that wins gets some brownie points. but the losing team doesn't drop off at all in the eyes of the analysis. Just look at what happened with Arkansas this weekend. We made a huge jump up to #5 and #7 in the online polls. Arky stayed where they were. It didn't hurt them, it just didn't help. 

[ellitor 33,062]

52 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

8 more SEC wins would give us 20 on the year. Doesn't matter who you are, if you win 20 games in the SEC, you're probably gonna host. I could see us hosting with 18 SEC wins. Might have to win a few in Hoover, but I don't think these series are necessarily "must wins" (MSU and LSU). 

If you sweep Ole Miss and Bama, you're up to 18. Take 1 against MSU and LSU on the road each, and that's pretty much saying you are "even" as a team. The team that wins gets some brownie points. but the losing team doesn't drop off at all in the eyes of the analysis. Just look at what happened with Arkansas this weekend. We made a huge jump up to #5 and #7 in the online polls. Arky stayed where they were. It didn't hurt them, it just didn't help. 

You are not factoring in the bad losses which may be factored in by the committee...And those online polls mean nothing and they never have for any college sport except when football used the BCS..

[PowerOfDixieland 3,225]

Just to cut through all the BS here's the way it went down for the SEC last year:

1.Miss State 40-14-1   (21-9)   [1-2]   HOSTED

2. USC 42-23   (20-9)   [0-2]   HOSTED

3. aTm 41-13   (20-10)   [4-1 tourney champs]   HOSTED

4. Florida 44-11   (19-10)   [3-2]   HOSTED

5.LSU 30-17   (19-11)   [3-1]   HOSTED

6.Vandy 41-15   (18-12)   [2-2]   HOSTED

7. Ole Miss 40-16   (18-12)   [3-1]   HOSTED

Kentucky (8) and the Updykes (9) both were 15-15  LEFT OUT

 

And since the conference expanded to 14 teams:

In 2015 5 teams had 17 or more conference wins and 4 HOSTED (Arkansas had 17 and wound up hosting the super regional Missouri State would have).

In 2014 6 teams had 17 or more conference wins and 5 HOSTED (Miss State had 18 conference wins and played in the Lafayette, LA regional).

In 2013 5 teams had 16 or more conference wins and 4 HOSTED (Arkansas had 18 conference wins and played in the Manhattan, KS regional)

I'm thinking 18 conference wins would give us an outstanding chance to host.  Only 3 of 18 teams to do it haven't hosted in the last 4 years.  Them' the facts.

[ellitor 33,062]

2 hours ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Just to cut through all the BS here's the way it went down for the SEC last year:

1.Miss State 40-14-1   (21-9)   [1-2]   HOSTED

2. USC 42-23   (20-9)   [0-2]   HOSTED

3. aTm 41-13   (20-10)   [4-1 tourney champs]   HOSTED

4. Florida 44-11   (19-10)   [3-2]   HOSTED

5.LSU 30-17   (19-11)   [3-1]   HOSTED

6.Vandy 41-15   (18-12)   [2-2]   HOSTED

7. Ole Miss 40-16   (18-12)   [3-1]   HOSTED

Kentucky (8) and the Updykes (9) both were 15-15  LEFT OUT

 

And since the conference expanded to 14 teams:

In 2015 5 teams had 17 or more conference wins and 4 HOSTED (Arkansas had 17 and wound up hosting the super regional Missouri State would have).

In 2014 6 teams had 17 or more conference wins and 5 HOSTED (Miss State had 18 conference wins and played in the Lafayette, LA regional).

In 2013 5 teams had 16 or more conference wins and 4 HOSTED (Arkansas had 18 conference wins and played in the Manhattan, KS regional)

I'm thinking 18 conference wins would give us an outstanding chance to host.  Only 3 of 18 teams to do it haven't hosted in the last 4 years.  Them' the facts.

Thank you for the info. There is no ill intent here. Just more facts. Yes what is posted above are facts but the associated RPI facts with those teams are left out.

Every SEC team in 2016 that hosted had an RPI in the Top 16 in the country. If we win 18 conference games this year our RPI is projected to be around 30. I highly doubt that would get us a host. If we did not have those 3 bad losses 18 wins probably would have been good enough as our RPI would have likely been in the teens. At 18 conference wins we would probably need to get to the SEC Tourney semifinal at minimum & may have to get to the tourney final.

UK & Bama didn't make the NCAA Tourney because both their RPIs ended up in the 60s.

In 2015 all 4 SEC teams that hosted Regionals had RPIs in the top 5 in the nation: UF, Vandy, LSU, & aTm. Arky won 17 but was a 2 seed in the Okie St region. Their RPI was 21. POD brings up an interesting point about Arky hosting the Super Regional. Before I did the research I thought the top 8 national seeds had to host all the way to the CWS until they were eliminated. Well Mizzou St. was the #8 national seed but the Super Region was at Arky. That was an odd situation. Arky hosted only because Mizzou St couldn't. Here is the run-down of that situation: Because Missouri State shares its ballpark with a minor-league team that played home games that weekend, the Bears couldn't host a super regional.

In 2014 all 5 SEC teams that hosted had RPIs in the top 15: UF, Vandy, SC, Rebs, & LSU(4 were in the top 11).  Miss St. at 18 conference wins as noted above had an RPI of 27 & as noted did not host. At 18 wins in 2017, AU would project a similar RPI & apparently would look to be a 2 seed without an SEC Tourney run.

In 2013 all 4 SEC teams that hosted had RPIs in the top 13 in the nation: Vandy, SC, LSU, & Miss St. Arky had 18 wins as noted & their RPI was #30. Same statement as above on AU applies.

Also in the last 5 years there have only been 5 teams host a regional & not be in the RPI top 20. That's 5 out of 96 which means based on the past 6 seasons teams not in the RPI top 20 had a 5.2% chance of hosting a region. I imagine those exceptions were to give some geographic regional host balance as 4 of those 5 teams were from the West Coast. The other was TCU. So essentially teams from the East & Southeast not in the RPI top 20 virtually have no chance of hosting a region because of the relative strength of baseball played in those areas.. That's where AU would be with 18 or 19 SEC wins with no SEC Tourney run. 19 wins for AU right now projects AU to finish 26th. 18 would obviously be lower. RPI matters to the selection committee. All data comes from WarrenNolan.com.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,225]

Okay, I give up.  There's no possible way Auburn is going to host a regional.  Where's my pistol?!

[ellitor 33,062]

16 minutes ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Okay, I give up.  There's no possible way Auburn is going to host a regional.  Where's my pistol?!

LOL! There is a way. Sweep Bama & win the other 3 series. That will likely give us the SEC West title. Winning the toughest division in the nation should make us a regional host. We can do it with 1 less win too should Miss St falter to another team along with us.or we get a win or 2 in Hoover.

[AUpreacherman22 3,876]

I don't know about anybody else, but I'm just glad we are having this conversation. I really didn't see this team being this good at the start of the season. 

[ellitor 33,062]

11 minutes ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

I don't know about anybody else, but I'm just glad we are having this conversation. I really didn't see this team being this good at the start of the season. 

If we finish 1 or 2 in the West Butch has got to be SEC Manager of the Year & get some national push for it too.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

If we finish 1 or 2 in the West Butch has got to be SEC Manager of the Year & get some national push for it too.

I was reading an article from either Perfect Game or D1 Baseball that mentioned Butch and one other as the top candidates for National COY consideration. 

[boomstick 1,315]

The first field of 64 projection is out for this week. 

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

[WDEKC 187]

I'm not sure of the source for Warren Nolan's projected seeds, but they currently have us projected as a 1 seed.

 

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/team-rank?team=Auburn

[ellitor 33,062]

11 minutes ago, WDEKC said:

I'm not sure of the source for Warren Nolan's projected seeds, but they currently have us projected as a 1 seed.

They do their own bracket projections. It's under the predictions tab. Link

Interesting to note they have us the #14 overall seed, Miss St #15 overall, Arky #11, & LSU #12.

[WeagleTheBeagle 60]

http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-04-21/college-baseball-surprise-teams-2017

So how are we not one of the surprise teams this season?  Don't get me wrong, I love it when AU doesn't get respect.  Bring it on!

[ellitor 33,062]

18 minutes ago, WeagleTheBeagle said:

So how are we not one of the surprise teams this season?

Even though we weren't in that article we are a surprise. We were picked to finish tied for last in the SEC West.