Baseball Postseason Chatter

[boomstick 1,315]

Here is D1Baseball's projection from earlier today.

http://www.d1ba.se/field7bd9

[fredst 9,064]

20 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Here is D1Baseball's projection from earlier today.

http://www.d1ba.se/field7bd9

Nice. Would be cool if we play well enough to make it happen.

[boomstick 1,315]

20 minutes ago, fredst said:

Nice. Would be cool if we play well enough to make it happen.

This weekend is a big first step. Gotta handle business against a very good but beatable State team. 

[boomstick 1,315]

Baseball America has us as a host with FSU coming here.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-april-27/#fKR1KEiYpUsY3zTh.97

[AU64 10,122]

Knowing we probably need to sweep bama.....read a piece about their nightmare of a season....have lost 11 games by one run....many times in crazy ways.

Teams like that scare the crap out of me because they have the potential to shake off whatever is ailing them and play a good game or two for no particular reason.

[augolf1716 21,103]

7 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Knowing we probably need to sweep bama.....read a piece about their nightmare of a season....have lost 11 games by one run....many times in crazy ways.

Teams like that scare the crap out of me because they have the potential to shake off whatever is ailing them and play a good game or two for no particular reason.

I agree I would bet money we don't sweep them just got that feeling baseball is hard to predict which is one reason I don't bet on baseball

[AU64 10,122]

Meanwhile Ole Miss slamming Arky tonight....well 7-1 in the 9th.....Rebs are another team that seems to be on the rise.

[doc4aday 1,887]

It seems as if FSU is always in the picture. I would love nothing more than to go another route than FSU. It is is FSU, then it is time to shut them down and start a new trend.

[ellitor 33,082]

AU has the 2nd best record in the nation versus RPI Top 25 teams (7-2). Oregon St is #1 at 8-0. Nice feather in AU's cap if it continues when regional hosts are handed out. Even if we lose 1 to Bama this week I think AU should be a Region host if we win the SEC West regardless of what the RPI number may be.

[ellitor 33,082]

Cool new feature on WarrenNolan.com. for baseball & later basketball. On each team's main page there is a new section called impact games. On the impact games page there is a RPI ladder that shows the team &as well as the 9 teams above & below them in the RPI and the point difference. There is also a Direct Impact games part. If AU has a game that day it will show the game and the approximate RPI impact of the game if AU wins or loses. The Indirect Impact games hasn't shown anything yet. Here's AU's Impact Games page.

[boomstick 1,315]

11 minutes ago, ellitor said:

AU has the 2nd best record in the nation versus RPI Top 25 teams (7-2). Oregon St is #1 at 8-0. Nice feather in AU's cap if it continues when regional hosts are handed out. Even if we lose 1 to Bama this week I think AU should be a Region host if we win the SEC West regardless of what the RPI number may be.

What do you think it would take, if it's possible, to get a national seed? I have a number/idea in mind, but since you keep up with this stuff even closer than I do, I wanted to get your take.

 

[ellitor 33,082]

21 minutes ago, boomstick said:

What do you think it would take, if it's possible, to get a national seed? I have a number/idea in mind, but since you keep up with this stuff even closer than I do, I wanted to get your take.

At minimum we will need to end #12 or better in the RPI so...

A) Win every regular season game left plus 1 or 2 in Hoover

B ) Win 2 of the last 3 series including sweeping Bama & the SEC Tourney

C) Sweep Bama, win both series over LSU & the Rebs, and win at least 2 or 3 in Hoover (In other words get to the Semifinals at least)

[boomstick 1,315]

Just now, ellitor said:

At minimum we will need to end #12 or better in the RPI so...

A) Win every regular season game left plus 1 or 2 in Hoover

Win 2 of the last 3 series including sweeping Bama & the SEC Tourney

C) Sweep Bama, win both series over LSU & the Rebs, and win at least 2 or 3 in Hoover (In other words get to the Semifinals at least)

That's about what I figured. If we want to host all the way to Omaha, we have to play lights out until selection time. The four games against Bama and UAB are big for the RPI. We really need to, at minimum, win 3 of those games. 

I did some digging, and I can't find an SEC regular season champ who wasn't a national seed. But I did find a 54-16 (21-9) South Carolina team in 2010 that finished second in the SEC standings and had a 7 RPI but wasn't a national seed. It's the only oddball I've found.

[ellitor 33,082]

5 minutes ago, boomstick said:

That's about what I figured. If we want to host all the way to Omaha, we have to play lights out until selection time. The four games against Bama and UAB are big for the RPI. We really need to, at minimum, win 3 of those games. 

We have to get all 4 to have a shot at Super Regional host. Even winning those games will drop our RPI some. We just need it not be a lot with a loss.

8 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I did some digging, and I can't find an SEC regular season champ who wasn't a national seed. But I did find a 54-16 (21-9) South Carolina team in 2010 that finished second in the SEC standings and had a 7 RPI but wasn't a national seed. It's the only oddball I've found.

What were the RPI's of the SEC Regular season champs? I doubt any were outside the top 12 which is very possible to happen with AU this year.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 minute ago, ellitor said:

We have to get all 4 to have a shot at Super Regional host. Even winning those games will drop our RPI some. We just need it not be a lot with a loss.

What were the RPI's of the SEC Regular season champs? I doubt any were outside the top 12 which is very possible to happen with AU this year.

Nevermind. I was looking at their final RPI ranking. South Carolina's was so high that year because they won the CWS. Not sure what the RPI rankings were at selection time. Auburn also was 20-10 that year and didn't get in the national seed talk. If I remember right, there was concern as to whether we were going to host or not.

[ellitor 33,082]

19 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Nevermind. I was looking at their final RPI ranking. South Carolina's was so high that year because they won the CWS. Not sure what the RPI rankings were at selection time. Auburn also was 20-10 that year and didn't get in the national seed talk. If I remember right, there was concern as to whether we were going to host or not.

Miss St was the regular season champ last year with a final RPI of 15 & the #6 National Seed in the NCAA Tourney. That means AU may not have to do as much as I thought. If we can sweep Bama & win the LSU & Rebs series then we may only need 1 in Hoover to finish in the RPI top 15 but I'd feel safer with 2. If we lose the LSU series then we likely have to make the Semis to finish in the top 15 in the RPI.

[boomstick 1,315]

Just now, ellitor said:

Not sure where you are looking but WarrenNolan stops RPIs after conference tourneys & before the NCAA Tourney. Miss St was the regular season champ last year with a final RPI of 15 & the #6 National Seed in the NCAA Tourney. That means AU may not have to do as much as I thought. If we can sweep Bama & win the LSU & Rebs series then we may only need 1 in Hoover to finish in the RPI top 15 but I'd feel safer with 2. If we lose the LSU series then we likely have to make the Semis to finish in the top 15 in the RPI.

I found an archived page from the NCAA of their final RPI rankings in 2010. 

 

[ellitor 33,082]

5 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I found an archived page from the NCAA of their final RPI rankings in 2010. 

And I was wrong on WarrenNolan. They kept going with RPIs after the conference tourneys. I could see the committee though give AU extra weight to be a National seed if they end in the RPI top 15 & win the SEC Regular season title.

[AU64 10,122]

Not to be overly distrustful of the process..but I always wonder if attempts to provide geographic balance enters into some of the decision making.

2 minutes ago, ellitor said:

And I was wrong on WarrenNolan. They kept going with RPIs after the conference tourneys. I could see the committee though give AU extra weight to be a National seed if they end in the RPI top 15 & win the SEC Regular season title.

Not sure how the conference should impact the selections...it's well known that some teams more or less coast through the tourneys and save their pitching for the NCAA regional....especially if their spot is pretty much assured.   

Just wondering if we really have to pull out all the stops in Hoover and risk having  a tired team/pitching staff when the first regional game is to be played?

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

Even with the loss to Troy last week we moved up to 4 and 5 in the Baseball America and D1 Baseball polls released today, which is awesome if the regular season ends today.  I am a believer in this team, but three games at LSU will not be easy along with three against Ole Miss who was very highly regarded coming into the season and also have a lot of firepower offensively.  Tigers have got to keep their head downs and not believe what is now starting to be written about them.  Wins take care of everything.

And as for geographic balance with regionals take a look at last year.  There wasn't a host site (out of 16) west of Texas.

[ellitor 33,082]

1 minute ago, AU64 said:

Not sure how the conference should impact the selections...it's well known that some teams more or less coast through the tourneys and save their pitching for the NCAA regional....especially if their spot is pretty much assured.   

Just wondering if we really have to pull out all the stops in Hoover and risk having  a tired team/pitching staff when the first regional game is to be played?

Conference Touneys should have little impact on tiring arms. There is 5 to 8 days rest depending on when teams are eliminated from conference tourneys to regionals. Given SEC History I don't think the coaches worry about things like that as it's typically 1 of the top 4 seeds that win the SEC Tourney. Plus our mental toughness & resilience is what has AU where it is now. I think it would be a mistake to take the gas off the mental edge.

5 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Not to be overly distrustful of the process..but I always wonder if attempts to provide geographic balance enters into some of the decision making.

It does as it was evidenced in this thread on the previous page last week.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

Just now, ellitor said:

Plus our mental toughness & resilience is what has AU where it is now. I think it would be a mistake to take the gas off the mental edge.

 

THIS X 1000

[AU64 10,122]

1 minute ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

 

THIS X 1000

Not sure I agree...we have already sat our two aces this season because of "fatigued arms" or something to that effect.   Just saying that it might be wise to nurse Mize and Thompson along from here on out...especially in the SEC tourney...JMO

[ellitor 33,082]

Just now, AU64 said:

Not sure I agree...we have already sat our two aces this season because of "fatigued arms" or something to that effect.   Just saying that it might be wise to nurse Mize and Thompson along from here on out...especially in the SEC tourney...JMO

If they show soreness as the weeks they were out then yes but if their arms are considered healthy you throw them the 1st 2 days of the SEC Tourney as you would with a normal start.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

It's looking like if we can win the Bama series and Ole Miss series, we will be a regional host, as long as we do not get swept by LSU. Might also have to take a few in Hoover. National seed would be nice, but if we are a national seed and make it through, there's always the possibility of another team coming out of the other bracket. If we don't get a national seed, we can still host a super, it's just not in our hands then.