Baseball Postseason Chatter

[boomstick 1,315]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

Wow! Warren Nolan has us the #5 national seed with LSU hosting the other region in our bracket. Our region would be with FSU, North Fl & Mercer.

Wow is right! I like being considered a national seed, but that's not an easy regional. I think Mercer is good enough to be a 2 seed. And FSU is always tough. I'll take the consideration though and enjoy it. I'd love to get out of that regional and host LSU in Auburn.

[ellitor 33,062]

Just now, boomstick said:

Wow is right! I like being considered a national seed, but that's not an easy regional. I think Mercer is good enough to be a 2 seed. And FSU is always tough. 

I thought so too but then I looked at their schedule & who they have beaten. Their SOS is 190, noncon SOS is 236, and they have not played 1 game versus an RPI top 50 team. I respect them though as should be done with any competitor but their resume is not a #2 seed.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 minute ago, ellitor said:

I thought so too but then I looked at their schedule & who they have beaten. Their SOS is 190, noncon SOS is 236, and they have not played 1 game versus an RPI top 50 team. I respect them though as should be done with any competitor but their resume is not a #2 seed.

They play at FSU next Wednesday. Should be an intriguing game to watch. Might try to find that one on TV or online.

[ellitor 33,062]

2 minutes ago, boomstick said:

They play at FSU next Wednesday. Should be an intriguing game to watch. Might try to find that one on TV or online.

Should be on the WatchESPN App through the agreement ESPN has with the ACC.

[HitandRun5 28]

15 hours ago, boomstick said:

College Sports Madness has released their latest projection. Not favorable to Auburn here.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/baseball/bracketology

This has to be some sort of a joke!! Did you read his season preview (click the Auburn link in bracket).?  He doesn't mention Keegan coming back in 17 or DRob. He states Blake and Daemon are going to have carry the leadership role. He states that wth Casey, Gabe Klobotsis in starting rotation and Gabe Cardenas & Daniel Sprinkle in the bullpen Auburn will have a good pitching staff.  Had us #42 and 8th in SEC.  

Definitely wont be incorporating this poor attempt at forecasting in my research.

 

[boomstick 1,315]

8 hours ago, HitandRun5 said:

This has to be some sort of a joke!! Did you read his season preview (click the Auburn link in bracket).?  He doesn't mention Keegan coming back in 17 or DRob. He states Blake and Daemon are going to have carry the leadership role. He states that wth Casey, Gabe Klobotsis in starting rotation and Gabe Cardenas & Daniel Sprinkle in the bullpen Auburn will have a good pitching staff.  Had us #42 and 8th in SEC.  

Definitely wont be incorporating this poor attempt at forecasting in my research.

 

Oh yeah. I read it. @ellitor has said they're a terrible prediction group, but it's a prediction. And there aren't too many places that do predictions. So, I post it. It's interesting to look at their prediction versus some of the other, more reputable services. I'm also interested in comparing Warren Nolan's to what Baseball America and D1Baseball put out today.

[AU64 10,122]

10 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Oh yeah. I read it. @ellitor has said they're a terrible prediction group, but it's a prediction. And there aren't too many places that do predictions. So, I post it. It's interesting to look at their prediction versus some of the other, more reputable services. I'm also interested in comparing Warren Nolan's to what Baseball America and D1Baseball put out today.

JMO but anyone predicting  AU's baseball fortunes never really had a chance.....what is it....20 new players this year?  

Guess they have to say or write something but none of the folks doing preseason predictions had near enough information to know what the team was capable of....and I submit, even after the first couple weeks of the season, who really saw this coming? 

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

JMO but anyone predicting  AU's baseball fortunes never really had a chance.....what is it....20 new players this year?  

Guess they have to say or write something but none of the folks doing preseason predictions had near enough information to know what the team was capable of....and I submit, even after the first couple weeks of the season, who really saw this coming? 

Most of the predictions we are talking about are from the resume AU has put together this season.

Upon further review I am in complete agreement with WarrenNolan's projection of AU as the #5 overall national seed right now based on resumes. I have learned that looking at a team's RPI score is a good starting point but it is not enough because no extra weight is given in the formula for games versus higher valued teams. Right now AU has a top 4 resume in the country versus RPI Top 25 teams, A top 5 resume vs. RPI Top 50 teams, & a top 10 resume vs RPI Top 100 teams.

[boomstick 1,315]

D1Baseball's latest projection

https://d1baseball.com/projections/field-64-projection-may-3/

[boomstick 1,315]

Baseball America's projection. Looks like we're close to a national seed here, although the matchup is probably more about region than seeding.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/coll...4-may-3-college-baseball/#cqpKJDC4BoP9q5Fl.97

[AU64 10,122]

4 hours ago, ellitor said:

Most of the predictions we are talking about are from the resume AU has put together this season.

Upon further review I am in complete agreement with WarrenNolan's projection of AU as the #5 overall national seed right now based on resumes. I have learned that looking at a team's RPI score is a good starting point but it is not enough because no extra weight is given in the formula for games versus higher valued teams. Right now AU has a top 4 resume in the country versus RPI Top 25 teams, A top 5 resume vs. RPI Top 50 teams, & a top 10 resume vs RPI Top 100 teams.

I was referring to the comments regarding the season preview....mentioned by "hit and run". several posts ago.....just saying that I don't hold it against any baseball expert who picked AU last in the SEC or whatever......since they had almost nothing to go on but last year's record....which was no longer relevant because of the player turnover. 

Just wondering who...back in February..had AU slotted as a top 8 seed come May? 

[ellitor 33,062]

2 hours ago, boomstick said:

Baseball America's projection. Looks like we're close to a national seed here, although the matchup is probably more about region than seeding.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/coll...4-may-3-college-baseball/#cqpKJDC4BoP9q5Fl.97

#9 overall seed there. #11 in the D1 projection.

[boomstick 1,315]

Just now, ellitor said:

#9 overall seed there. #11 in the D1 projection.

Makes me feel more confident about our national seed chances if we take care of business the rest of the regular season and don't spit the bit in the SECT.

[ellitor 33,062]

It's looking like if we can take 7 of the last 9 SEC games and 1 or 2 in Hoover then we are trending to a top 8 national seed. That's less work that I posted last week that I thought we needed to do to get a national seed.

[ellitor 33,062]

1 minute ago, boomstick said:

Makes me feel more confident about our national seed chances if we take care of business the rest of the regular season and don't spit the bit in the SECT.

The only thing I'm unsure of if how much more work we would have to do if we get a 2-1 split over Bama instead of a sweep. I would think another quality win or 2 but I'm just not sure.

[boomstick 1,315]

Just now, ellitor said:

The only thing I'm unsure of if how much more work we would have to do if we get a 2-1 split over Bama instead of a sweep. I would think another quality win or 2 but I'm just not sure.

Yeah, that's the big mystery in my mind too. If losing a game to them drops us 5 or so spots, it might get dicey. I think losing a game probably means we have to win the series in Baton Rouge whereas I don't think it's a necessity right now. I still have a hard time seeing us not getting a national seed if we finish 6-3 with 3 series wins, the SEC regular season title, and at least 1 win at the SECT. 

And like I've said before, if we're the #9-10 seed and just miss a national seed, I won't be disappointed. The closer we are to that top 8, the more friendly our regional and super matchups would be. 

[ellitor 33,062]

2 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Yeah, that's the big mystery in my mind too. If losing a game to them drops us 5 or so spots, it might get dicey. I think losing a game probably means we have to win the series in Baton Rouge whereas I don't think it's a necessity right now. I still have a hard time seeing us not getting a national seed if we finish 6-3 with 3 series wins, the SEC regular season title, and at least 1 win at the SECT. 

As of now we would drop 12 RPI spots from 18 down to 30 if we loss a game to Bama this week. Not sure 6-3 will get us the regular season title. That will give us 20 SEC wins. Florida & UK have a real shot of winning 8 & 7 SEC games respectively to get to 21. If we go 6-3 I think we have to win at least 2 in Hoover to get a national seed.

[ellitor 33,062]

10 minutes ago, boomstick said:

And like I've said before, if we're the #9-10 seed and just miss a national seed, I won't be disappointed. The closer we are to that top 8, the more friendly our regional and super matchups would be. 

Region match ups don't work that way in the baseball tourney. After the #1s are set a lot of region match ups are done by geography.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 minute ago, ellitor said:

 

4 minutes ago, ellitor said:

As of now we would drop 12 RPI spots from 18 down to 30 if we loss a game to Bama this week. Not sure 6-3 will get us the regular season title. That will give us 20 SEC wins. Florida & UK have a real shot of winning 8 & 7 SEC games respectively to get to 21. If we go 6-3 I think we have to win at least 2 in Hoover to get a national seed.

I think 20 gets us to a tie with UK at the top. But if 20 doesn't get us the SEC title, I don't think we will be a national host. I think that's our key. Without it, I think we come close but get held back by our early season weaknesses. 

By the way, how did you know about the change with a loss to Bama? I've looked everywhere for a calculator/predictor like you can find for basketball but haven't found one.

[ellitor 33,062]

23 minutes ago, boomstick said:

By the way, how did you know about the change with a loss to Bama? I've looked everywhere for a calculator/predictor like you can find for basketball but haven't found one.

In the WarrenNolan new RPI predictor I posted 2 pages back. I watched affects on similar games from last night if the higher ranked team had lost. If Ole Miss lost last night or losses tonight to ULM (RPI 234) they will drop 78 points. From that it can be extrapolated AU would drop a similar amount losing 1 to Bama (RPI 201).

[HitandRun5 28]

My main complaint is we knew Keegan was going to be back pitching Friday nights and Gordo was no longer on the team and Sprinkle  was a question mark. It's clearly evident they made out of their predictions with out doing ANY basic research. It's evident by those few pitching examples and the omission of DRob and Bo Decker providing senior leadership despite not playing in 16. Sorry for the rant, but I dislike predictions when they aren't supported by simple fact checking. Lazy. 

[AU64 10,122]

Most of those kind of predictions are pretty superficial which is why I rarely pay attention to them. People doing them are either lazy or just don't have or take time to take a serious look. 

 As for KT....until he was actually back on the mound it was difficult to know how successful his rehab would be. JMO

[AU64 10,122]

What am I missing about Kentucky....see that they are considered a #3 national seed in some quarters.  Are they really that good?

[SaltyTiger 7,764]

5 minutes ago, AU64 said:

What am I missing about Kentucky....see that they are considered a #3 national seed in some quarters.  Are they really that good?

Good question re Ky. Be interesting to see how CBT handles our pitching from here out. You know where I am going. 

[ellitor 33,062]

37 minutes ago, AU64 said:

What am I missing about Kentucky....see that they are considered a #3 national seed in some quarters.  Are they really that good?

I don't see them as a 3 seed because their vs. RIP Top 25 win/loss ratio is not good but they are good overall & probably worth being the tail end of the national seeds. They are 31-14  doing that against the #3 toughest schedule in the nation. They also lead the SEC East which is a tough division although not as tough as the SEC West. Those are pretty impressive things.