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17 minutes ago, ellitor said:

I don't see them as a 3 seed because their vs. RIP Top 25 win/loss ratio is not good but they are good overall & probably worth being the tail end of the national seeds. They are 31-14  doing that against the #3 toughest schedule in the nation. They also lead the SEC East which is a tough division although not as tough as the SEC West. Those are pretty impressive things.

 I just browsed their schedule and frankly, I don't see it as that good. They have not played the best SEC teams and while they had strong out of conference opposition , they had problems also. 

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21 minutes ago, AU64 said:

 I just browsed their schedule and frankly, I don't see it as that good. They have not played the best SEC teams and while they had strong out of conference opposition , they had problems also. 

Well what you see as not good is in fact the #3 schedule in the nation. 32 of their 45 games are versus top 100 RPI teams. That's a lot. It's in the Top 5 in most games versus Top 100 teams, # of games played against Top 25 & top 50 teams is in the top 10 in the country also.

As for not having played the best teams in the SEC. That's just straight false. They have played Miss St (lost 2 of 3 on road) & aTm (Swept Aggies on the road) who are both 1/2 game from 1st in the conference & LSU (Won 2 of 3) is 1 game back from 1st in the conference. They get Florida to end the season also. The only top team they miss is AU & maybe Arky depending how they finish.

As for the noncon games they are 17-7 which is good against that schedule. For comparative Purposes AU is 18-7 versus a noncon schedule whose SOS is 90 spots worse than UKs.

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9 hours ago, ellitor said:

Well what you see as not good is in fact the #3 schedule in the nation. 32 of their 45 games are versus top 100 RPI teams. That's a lot. It's in the Top 5 in most games versus Top 100 teams, # of games played against Top 25 & top 50 teams is in the top 10 in the country also.

As for not having played the best teams in the SEC. That's just straight false. They have played Miss St (lost 2 of 3 on road) & aTm (Swept Aggies on the road) who are both 1/2 game from 1st in the conference & LSU (Won 2 of 3) is 1 game back from 1st in the conference. They get Florida to end the season also. The only top team they miss is AU & maybe Arky depending how they finish.

As for the noncon games they are 17-7 which is good against that schedule. For comparative Purposes AU is 18-7 versus a noncon schedule whose SOS is 90 spots worse than UKs.

I know that "computers don't lie" but I think they can mislead.....and sure, they got a big SOS boost from Louisville and UNC...which they lost 4 or 5 against and some other good teams.    That TAMU sweep was good but was their best performance of the year.  Just saying...that's Ive seen them play a few games and while they have great hitting and will beat your brains out when they have their hitting shoes one.....and yet.....I'm not convinced.  They lost a few to much lesser teams like Liberty and Delaware.   And...they have not played AU or Arky as you note and still have Florida and UT on their schedule.  

So for now put me in the camp that says when the season is done they will not be a top 8 team ...and the SEC tournament might be where AU and UK have  to make the case for a national seed.

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46 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I know that "computers don't lie" but I think they can mislead.....and sure, they got a big SOS boost from Louisville and UNC...which they lost 4 or 5 against and some other good teams.    That TAMU sweep was good but was their best performance of the year.  Just saying...that's Ive seen them play a few games and while they have great hitting and will beat your brains out when they have their hitting shoes one.....and yet.....I'm not convinced.  They lost a few to much lesser teams like Liberty and Delaware.   And...they have not played AU or Arky as you note and still have Florida and UT on their schedule.  

So for now put me in the camp that says when the season is done they will not be a top 8 team ...and the SEC tournament might be where AU and UK have  to make the case for a national seed.

The only series losses they have is the sweep at UNC (no shame in that at all), and 2 of 3 @ Miss St (Again no shame) and that includes mid week games they have played teams more than once this season. That's very strong against their schedule.

Liberty's RPI is #60 & the game was on the road. That's considered a quality loss my friend. Delaware is the only bad loss on their resume with an RPI of 165. By comparison AU has 6 bad losses.

And not sure what you mean by they won't be a top 8 team. If in your mind then cool, that's your opinion. But if you are referring to how the committee evaluates their resume, barring a collapse down the stretch or a home loss to UGA this weekend, then they will be a top 8 national seed.

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I was tempted to post how legit Kentucky is.  Their new coach (Mingione) has done a fantastic job, and they've got a dominant starter (Hjelle, 7-2, 3.67) and a loaded lineup (hitting .315 as a team) led by a very real conference POY candidate (Pompey).

Glad I didn't post that...they lost at home to Georgia this afternoon. Ha.

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1 hour ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

I was tempted to post how legit Kentucky is.  Their new coach (Mingione) has done a fantastic job, and they've got a dominant starter (Hjelle, 7-2, 3.67) and a loaded lineup (hitting .315 as a team) led by a very real conference POY candidate (Pompey).

Glad I didn't post that...they lost at home to Georgia this afternoon. Ha.

Nice! Making me eat some crow for @AU64.

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2 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Nice! Making me eat some crow for @AU64.

I never said a word....only one game.....now if it were to happen again, guess I would have bring up the subject...after all it's baseball and about anything can happen.:)

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4 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I never said a word....only one game.....now if it were to happen again, guess I would have bring up the subject...after all it's baseball and about anything can happen.:)

It's still a bad loss & probably hurts their national seed chances unless they go to Florida & win that series in 2 weeks.

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I guess the chances of hosting are slim now unless we have strong performances against LSU and OM. @ellitor you think series wins against LSU and OM are enough to host or do we need a couple of wins at the SECT?

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4 hours ago, boomstick said:

I guess the chances of hosting are slim now unless we have strong performances against LSU and OM. @ellitor you think series wins against LSU and OM are enough to host or do we need a couple of wins at the SECT?

At least win those series & get 3 in Hoover. May need to sweep 1 of the series.

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11 hours ago, boomstick said:

Wow. Warren Nolan still projects us as a host, which is odd because he is also predicting we finish 17-13 in conference play. I can't imagine that conference record is enough to get us a host spot.  

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/projection

Now that they lost to UAB, that puts the nail in the hosting coffin I'm sure. Just got to focus on renewing their mind for the postseason.

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5 hours ago, jared52 said:

Now that they lost to UAB, that puts the nail in the hosting coffin I'm sure. Just got to focus on renewing their mind for the postseason.

Technically no but it's on life support. They gotta take the LSU & Ole Miss series plus get 2 or 3 in Hoover. Very tall order.

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D1Baseball has us as a 2 seed playing at Southern Miss. The South Alabama draw is interesting. 

https://d1baseball.com/postseason/field-64-projection-may-10/

Baseball America has us as a 2 seed at Southern Miss also. I like this draw a little better as it avoids a game South Alabama team, and for whatever reason, we don't play in-state teams all that well.  

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-may-10/

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The way the team has been playing lately , I am not sure we can hold the number 2 seed.

This team is in a big slump....In college baseball you are supposed to beat the teams that you are supposed to beat...and there are a few excuses for being swept by what is considered to be a much inferior team.

Butch needs to really turn things around this weekend. I guess the pitching rotation will remain the same as this week .

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30 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I like this draw a little better as it avoids a game South Alabama team, and for whatever reason, we don't play in-state teams all that well.  

I actually want that game for 2 reasons. 1. Pay back for the 14-3 beat down earlier this year. 2. Beating us versus our midweek pitching is one thing. Beating us versus our #1 or #2 pitchers is an entirely different animal.

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2 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I guess the pitching rotation will remain the same as this week .

Nope. Since it's a Thursday-Saturday series it's Mitchell, Keegan, then Mize.

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40 minutes ago, AU64 said:

The way the team has been playing lately , I am not sure we can hold the number 2 seed.

This team is in a big slump....In college baseball you are supposed to beat the teams that you are supposed to beat...and there are a few excuses for being swept by what is considered to be a much inferior team.

Butch needs to really turn things around this weekend. I guess the pitching rotation will remain the same as this week .

Not sure there's much Butch can do about the at bats. We've had 47 hits in the last four games, which is pretty productive. But we've only scored 20 runs on those 47 hits and have left 54 on base. That's on the hitters. No way around it. We just have to be better situationally. Maybe a tweak in philosophy can help, but it seems a bit late in the year to start tweaking philosophies. 

And the starting rotation this weekend is going to be Mitchell Thursday, Keegan Friday, and Mize Saturday. Daniel will be available in the pen all weekend.

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1 minute ago, ellitor said:

I actually want that game for 2 reasons. 1. Pay back for the 14-3 beat down earlier this year. 2. Beating us versus our midweek pitching is one thing. Beating us versus our #1 or #2 pitchers is an entirely different animal.

Agreed about them having to beat us with Keegan or Casey. And D1 doesn't seem to think they are a lock for an at-large because of their relatively weak RPI Top 50 and don't play a top 100 team left on the schedule.

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1 hour ago, ellitor said:

Nope. Since it's a Thursday-Saturday series it's Mitchell, Keegan, then Mize.

 That's fine but seems that neither Mize nor Thompson were heavily used against Bama were they?

 Never hurts for them to have another day of rest of course.   Did Davis lose his slot because of what happened in game three? 

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20 minutes ago, AU64 said:

 That's fine but seems that neither Mize nor Thompson were heavily used against Bama were they?

Keegan yes. 104 pitches. Casey enough coming back from tenderness issues. 75 pitches.

20 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Did Davis lose his slot because of what happened in game three?

Per Butch no. Butch is already set to pitch Keegan & Casey on 5 & 6 days rest respectively on Friday & Saturday so there's nowhere to put Daniel as a starter this week. You aren't going to start him on Thursday on 3 days rest.

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33 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Keegan yes. 104 pitches. Casey enough coming back from tenderness issues. 75 pitches.

Per Butch no. Butch is already set to pitch Keegan & Casey on 5 & 6 days rest respectively on Friday & Saturday so there's nowhere to put Daniel as a starter this week. You aren't going to start him on Thursday on 3 days rest.

Mitchell had been the guy to come in to stop a rally...so guess he and Daniel will swap roles?  I see that Mitchell only faced a couple batters on Sunday so should be fresh.

Hope he can get us off to a good start.  Any advantage to him being a left against LSU?

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49 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Mitchell had been the guy to come in to stop a rally...so guess he and Daniel will swap roles?  I see that Mitchell only faced a couple batters on Sunday so should be fresh.

Hope he can get us off to a good start.  Any advantage to him being a left against LSU?

LSU has several good left-handed hitters. I think there's some matchup advantages for him against their lineup. And he had some success in a start against LSU a couple years ago in the SECT.  He's from that area. So maybe that helps him as well. 

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https://www.google.com/amp/www.baseballamerica.com/college/projected-field-64-may-17-ncaa-baseball-tournament/%3Famphtml%3D1

Projected as a 3 seed in he latest projections after being swept back to back weekends.

"Auburn will need to snap out of its funk against Mississippi to avoid sliding onto the bubble." Sounds like we are still solidly in as of now, but another disastrous weekend could put us in a must win situation in Hoover. Hope these guys get up for this series.

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