Baseball Postseason Chatter

[autigeremt 6,593]

[AUTigersfan89 256]

In regard to the way baseball goes, we're due to finally snap out of our funk we've been in for 7 games now. If any positivity could be made out of this, you could say we at least went through this in the regular season versus it happening in postseason play.

[AU64 10,122]

Most of the season we were getting by on some outstanding pitching by Mize and Thompson.  Now looks like the wear and tear has gotten to them despite some rests along the way.   

JMO but it is still necessary for the AU starters to hold the opposition to about 3 or 4 to have a chance.  We break loose every now and a good percent of the time we score fewer than 4 runs.     M and T have had a hard time doing that the past few weeks....so wondering if the pen is able to step up this weekend?

[ellitor 33,081]

JMO but with our low RPI, yes 43 is a low RPI for baseball, we likely have to win the Ole Miss series.

[jared52 4,354]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

JMO but with our low RPI, yes 43 is a low RPI for baseball, we likely have to win the Ole Miss series IMO.

Wow. That is one hell of a turnaround from maybe hosting. Unprecedented?

[AUTigersfan89 256]

26 minutes ago, jared52 said:

Wow. That is one hell of a turnaround from maybe hosting. Unprecedented?

Yeah, from a national seed to bubble team if we continue the slump this weekend. 

I don't know what needs to happen, but we have the talent to sweep Ole Miss and that's what needs to happen. Surely our guys are motivated to turn this around.

[AU64 10,122]

Well...my apologies to Kentucky....sorry I doubted them....they are in the process of beating the stuff out of Florida tonight....something like 11-3.  Obviously a better team than I gave them credit for being.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

3 hours ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

Yeah, from a national seed to bubble team if we continue the slump this weekend. 

I don't know what needs to happen, but we have the talent to sweep Ole Miss and that's what needs to happen. Surely our guys are motivated to turn this around.

Ole Miss is so loaded with talent...number one signing class in the current group of Freshman.  

In fact, the natives are getting restless with Mike Bianco in Oxford (and oh by the way his son signed with LSU).  They really have no business losing three to us, but I'm hoping we get red hot again and get to 17 conference wins.  

[ellitor 33,081]

5 hours ago, jared52 said:

Wow. That is one hell of a turnaround from maybe hosting. Unprecedented?

Nope but unusual.

[Mikey 16,569]

8 hours ago, AU64 said:

Most of the season we were getting by on some outstanding pitching by Mize and Thompson.  Now looks like the wear and tear has gotten to them despite some rests along the way.   

JMO but it is still necessary for the AU starters to hold the opposition to about 3 or 4 to have a chance.  We break loose every now and a good percent of the time we score fewer than 4 runs.     M and T have had a hard time doing that the past few weeks....so wondering if the pen is able to step up this weekend?

I don't buy the wear and tear. If anything they've been babied too much. Now, if they both have a chronic problem that's different but they haven't had enough work to be suffering from wear and tear.

[AU64 10,122]

8 hours ago, Mikey said:

I don't buy the wear and tear. If anything they've been babied too much. Now, if they both have a chronic problem that's different but they haven't had enough work to be suffering from wear and tear.

Actually I agree with you....to an extent

And while the prevailing sentiment and concern on this board usually leans toward the pitchers being over-worked....I'm of the school of thought that mostly they are under worked which is one reason they don't hold up well ...even for a relatively short season with lots of rest between starts.  And as a result, the wear and tear issue is probably real in my view..though it should not be.

I see Mize is probably out for the Ole Miss series now...unspecified reasons ...and after his last outing, wondering if this is a longer term issue?  Hate that for him and the team. 

[ellitor 33,081]

Well 5 postseason bubbles were burst the past couple of days by teams that were not getting in without winning their conference tourneys. The biggest shocker was Illinois St with a conference record of 2-18  beat Mizzou St who had a conference record of 19-1 for the Missouri Valley Tourney title.

Other surprises that knocked out bubble teams...

Iowa won the Big Ten Tourney
Xavier won the Big East Tourney
Okie St won the Big 12 Tourney and
Sam Houston St. won the Southland Tourney.

I'm pretty sure AU is in but sure as heck those upsets are uncomfortable.

[ellitor 33,081]

5 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Well 5 postseason bubbles were burst the past couple of days by teams that were not getting in without winning their conference tourneys. The biggest shocker was Illinois St with a conference record of 2-18  beat Mizzou St who had a conference record of 19-1 for the Missouri Valley Tourney title.

Other surprises that knocked out bubble teams...

Iowa won the Big Ten Tourney
Xavier won the Big East Tourney
Okie St won the Big 12 Tourney and
Sam Houston St. won the Southland Tourney.

I'm pretty sure AU is in but sure as heck those upsets are uncomfortable.

Make that 6. Rice won the Con. USA Tourney. 6 seems like a high number of teams to win conference tourney shrinking the bubble for other teams.

[Tigerbelle 5,299]

On 5/19/2017 at 7:35 AM, AU64 said:

Actually I agree with you....to an extent

And while the prevailing sentiment and concern on this board usually leans toward the pitchers being over-worked....I'm of the school of thought that mostly they are under worked which is one reason they don't hold up well ...even for a relatively short season with lots of rest between starts.  And as a result, the wear and tear issue is probably real in my view..though it should not be.

I see Mize is probably out for the Ole Miss series now...unspecified reasons ...and after his last outing, wondering if this is a longer term issue?  Hate that for him and the team. 

It's the long term,cumulative wear and tear that starts in childhood while bodies are still growing. Growth continues in males until they reach their early twenties. The stress on immature bodies can be tremendous. 

http://orthoinfo.aaos.org/topic.cfm?topic=A00307 

https://www.urmc.rochester.edu/encyclopedia/content.aspx?contenttypeid=160&contentid=31

[boomstick 1,315]

 

[ellitor 33,081]

My guess is AU ends up in Hattiesburg, Clemson or Tallahassee.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

I'm hoping for Hattiesburg with our regional- that would be really fun and a lot of Orange and Blue would be in attendance for that one. Really, I think any of those regionals certainly are not impossible to win 

[boomstick 1,315]

6 minutes ago, ellitor said:

My guess is AU ends up in Hattiesburg, Clemson or Tallahassee.

Mark Etheridge of D1Baseball thinks we should be concerned about getting in based on the way these regional hosts were determined. Sounds like he thinks the RPI was weighted heavily, and that's not exactly in our favor. He said aTm should be worried too. I think the bubble buster mid major tournament winners might really affect some teams at the bottom of the heap. 

[AU64 10,122]

3 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Mark Etheridge of D1Baseball thinks we should be concerned about getting in based on the way these regional hosts were determined. Sounds like he thinks the RPI was weighted heavily, and that's not exactly in our favor. He said aTm should be worried too. I think the bubble buster mid major tournament winners might really affect some teams at the bottom of the heap. 

Having five of them go that way was not good...though I would be happy at any location other than FSU but the old adage...beggars can't be choosers....and the way we finished and the bracket busters noted up the page.....I'd just take what we can get and just make the commitment to beat whoever they put us against.  

It's hard to say one way or the other in my view about how we might "match up" with anyone.    We've proved we can beat about any good team and lose to any bad team.

[ellitor 33,081]

2 minutes ago, AU64 said:

aving five of them go that way was not good

6.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Record against Top 50 RPI is 13-12. 13 wins against Top 50 RPI is ranked 11th in the country. We gon be fine. 16 SEC Wins,  7/10 on SEC Series, 5 wins in 9 games against Regional Hosts. We gon be fine.

[ellitor 33,081]

20 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Mark Etheridge of D1Baseball thinks we should be concerned about getting in based on the way these regional hosts were determined. Sounds like he thinks the RPI was weighted heavily, and that's not exactly in our favor. He said aTm should be worried too. I think the bubble buster mid major tournament winners might really affect some teams at the bottom of the heap. 

He may be right on us not making but I don't think the RPIs from the Regional hosts tells that story. They took the 11 teams from the top 17 in RPI who won their conference, division, or conference tourney. They were logical & just picks. The only other team in the top 30 of the RPI that had done any of those things is USA at #30 winning the Sun Belt Tourney. On the other 5 hosts they did a much better job on the whole within their conference than the other available teams within the RPI top 30. The only exception was Virginia but their SOS was 30-50 spots below the 5 teams who were selected regional hosts.

[ellitor 33,081]

New Baseball America Projection out

Has us as a 2 Seed in the TCU Regional.
Of the 6 teams who got their bubble burst by upset conference tourney champs the last 2 days they think Carolina & the Rebs are 2 of them.

[ellitor 33,081]

I would be surprised if the committee puts Miss. St. & South Alabama against each other. They already played each other 3 times this year.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

He may be right on us not making but I don't think the RPIs from the Regional hosts tells that story. They took the 11 teams from the top 17 in RPI who won their conference, division, or conference tourney. They were logical & just picks. The only other team in the top 30 of the RPI that had done any of those things is USA at #30 winning the Sun Belt Tourney. On the other 5 hosts they did a much better job on the whole within their conference than the other available teams within the RPI top 30. The only exception was Virginia but their SOS was 30-50 spots below the 5 teams who were selected regional hosts.

What I can't get past is this. If Auburn gets left out, that means only 6 SEC teams would get in. On paper, we have a better resume and better RPI than aTm. So I don't think they get in ahead of us. And if we aren't getting in, no way OM or USCe are getting in. The only thing those two have over us is RPI. And I can't fathom only having 6 SEC teams in the NCAAT and not having two above .500 teams in.