Baseball Postseason Chatter

[ellitor 33,086]

1 minute ago, boomstick said:

What I can't get past is this. If Auburn gets left out, that means only 6 SEC teams would get in. On paper, we have a better resume and better RPI than aTm. So I don't think they get in ahead of us. And if we aren't getting in, no way OM or USCe are getting in. The only thing those two have over us is RPI. And I can't fathom only having 6 SEC teams in the NCAAT and not having two above .500 teams in. 

I think we are in. Also the committee may not do it but they would be just if they put 1 or both SC & the Rebs in over aTm. Look at their resumes. The only advantage aTm has over both of them is conference record. aTm's noncon SOS is a pathetic 200. And the Rebs won their series over aTm.

[Mikey 16,577]

This is why I wish we had managed our pitching to go deeper into the SEC tournament. 6 unexpected conference champions and suddenly, there's a potential problem.

[ellitor 33,086]

FWIW my guess on the final 10 at large teams that make regionals.

Southeastern Louisiana
Michigan
Miami
Cal State Ful
Nebraska
Auburn
Missouri St
aTm
UCLA
Maryland

Also considered South Carolina instead for the last spot.

[ellitor 33,086]

8 minutes ago, Mikey said:

This is why I wish we had managed our pitching to go deeper into the SEC tournament. 6 unexpected conference champions and suddenly, there's a potential problem.

The only way that could have been done was start Casey vs Ole Miss then Keegan vs Florida. In fairness to Butch he had no clue what he was going to get from Casey that night because of his lack of pitching the time last half of the conference season and the last time he did pitch LSU lit him up. If he was confident in Casey going that would have been the starters for the 1st 2 games of the tourney. As it was Daniel went his customary game 3 for us and the staff did good overall holding UF to 5 runs. We like Keegan's chances of bettering that on 5 full days rest but in the end we just don't know.

[Mikey 16,577]

Quote: "The only way that could have been done was start Casey vs Ole Miss then Keegan vs Florida" Why is that? Keegan did start against Ole Miss. It wouldn't have made any difference who his scheduled backup was to be.

I would have started Thompson the 1st game and Casey the 2nd game. That gives us the best chance to win two games. Knocking off top-seed UF would have cemented us into a good #2 slot somewhere. We will probably still get in, but taking games lightly when unknowns are involved is never a good idea.

[boomstick 1,315]

11 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Quote: "The only way that could have been done was start Casey vs Ole Miss then Keegan vs Florida" Why is that? Keegan did start against Ole Miss. It wouldn't have made any difference who his scheduled backup was to be.

I would have started Thompson the 1st game and Casey the 2nd game. That gives us the best chance to win two games. Knocking off top-seed UF would have cemented us into a good #2 slot somewhere. We will probably still get in, but taking games lightly when unknowns are involved is never a good idea.

Thompson would've been pitching on four or five days rest, which Butch wasn't going to do. Based on how these guys are pitched during the week and on the weekends, he wasn't in a position to pitch a long outing on Tuesday or Wednesday.

And on the flip side, if we don't throw Casey and don't beat OM, we might be less likely to get into the tournament. 

[boomstick 1,315]

D1Baseball has us as a 3 seed in Tallahassee. They also have aTm as one of their first three out, which is worrisome for us.

https://d1baseball.com/postseason/final-d1baseball-field-64-projection/

[ellitor 33,086]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

Why is that? Keegan did start against Ole Miss. It wouldn't have made any difference who his scheduled backup was to be.

I would have started Thompson the 1st game and Casey the 2nd game. That gives us the best chance to win two games. Knocking off top-seed UF would have cemented us into a good #2 slot somewhere. We will probably still get in, but taking games lightly when unknowns are involved is never a good idea.

With respect do you remember how that Ole Miss game played out? Yes Keegan started...and was struggling when he was taken out. The Rebs were seeing him well & hitting him hard, particularly is fastball. He was on 4 days rest. That's a bullpen day for our starters. If Butch tried to let him go like a typical start we likely would have lost that game to the Rebs & not get to use Casey at all in the SEC Tourney since game one for us was a single elimination. If Butch was confident in Casey the only option to use both in games 1 & 2 as stated above was Casey game 1 on a lot of rest but coming off a wrist issue & Keegan game 2 on 5 days rest which is closer to the 6 day rest program Butch has his starters on.

Also "does not make a difference to who Keegan's back up was."...Really? Either Butch keeps him in or Butch takes him out in the 4th like he did for a different reliever. In either Case we likely lose the game given how it was playing out. Keegan was being hit as noted & likely no reliever would have been as dominant as Casey was in helping us get the W.

Lastly Butch was in no way taking the Rebs game lightly. To believe that is just laughable & borderline insulting to Butch. Given Keegan was on a bullpen day for that start he felt letting Keegan go as long as he could then bringing Casey in was his best chance at winning that 1 game versus the Rebs, which he obviously strongly believed locked AU in the NCAAs. We won't know til tomorrow but the selections will probably prove him right.

[ellitor 33,086]

42 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Thompson would've been pitching on four or five days rest, which Butch wasn't going to do.

Actually he strongly thought about starting Keegan on 5 days rest versus Florida. The day & 2 before the Rebs game he said Casey starting versus the Rebs was more possible the Keegan starting against them. Apparently he wasn't completely confident in what he saw from Casey the day or so before the Rebs game so he changed his mind.

[ellitor 33,086]

26 minutes ago, boomstick said:

D1Baseball has us as a 3 seed in Tallahassee. They also have aTm as one of their first three out, which is worrisome for us.

https://d1baseball.com/postseason/final-d1baseball-field-64-projection/

LMAO at them having UConn, ODU, & Gonzaga in when you look at totality of resumes.

Also with a SOS of 198 & NonCon SOS of 255 St John's has no business sniffing a bid or bubble for that matter without winning a conference tournament.

[AU64 10,122]

7 hours ago, ellitor said:

LMAO at them having UConn, ODU, & Gonzaga in when you look at totality of resumes.

Also with a SOS of 198 & NonCon SOS of 255 St John's has no business sniffing a bid or bubble for that matter without winning a conference tournament.

JMO....but at the end of the process I bet there is politics ...regional balance and travel that come into play when so many teams are more or less equal.

It is bad to be at the mercy of that kind of decision rationale.

[Mikey 16,577]

8 hours ago, ellitor said:

Lastly Butch was in no way taking the Rebs game lightly. To believe that is just laughable & borderline insulting to Butch.

That's the opposite of what I wrote. I said the pitching schedule we used was set up to WIN the Ole' Miss game without regard to what came next. It now turns out we might need that next game to get in.

[ellitor 33,086]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

JMO....but at the end of the process I bet there is politics ...regional balance and travel that come into play when so many teams are more or less equal.

It is bad to be at the mercy of that kind of decision rationale.

For regional hosting yes in some years. I sure hope  that does not come into play at all when looking at the resumes to determine the last best at large teams. I mean I did it last night & it wasn't that hard for me just looking at resumes. Best resumes should get in. Also I know what I predicted above but if it were me I would have Carolina & the Rebs in over aTm & Maryland strictly off of resume. Their schedules were a lot tougher. I predict the committee to take aTm & Maryland instead because of winning conference records.

[AUTigersfan89 256]

When is the announcement?

[ellitor 33,086]

Just now, AUTigersfan89 said:

When is the announcement?

11 CT on ESPN2.

[boomstick 1,315]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

That's the opposite of what I wrote. I said the pitching schedule we used was set up to WIN the Ole' Miss game without regard to what came next. It now turns out we might need that next game to get in.

But if we don't win the OM game, what's the point in saving Casey or Keegan? We pitched that game like we knew we had to win at least one. So we did everything we could to guarantee a win. If we needed to win two, we couldn't do that without winning the first game. 

[ellitor 33,086]

2 minutes ago, boomstick said:

But if we don't win the OM game, what's the point in saving Casey or Keegan? We pitched that game like we knew we had to win at least one. So we did everything we could to guarantee a win. If we needed to win two, we couldn't do that without winning the first game. 

Damn! There's a novel idea.

[AUTigersfan89 256]

So...going forward, should we rely on our 3 pitcher rotation with Thompson, Mize, and Davis? Is that even feasible in a tournament setting?

[boomstick 1,315]

12 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

So...going forward, should we rely on our 3 pitcher rotation with Thompson, Mize, and Davis? Is that even feasible in a tournament setting?

Yeah, I think that's our rotation. Due to some short rest and Casey missing a couple of starts, things got shuffled around. But those three guys will start the first three games of a regional, and I think it would be in that order. 

[ellitor 33,086]

10 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Yeah, I think that's our rotation. Due to some short rest and Casey missing a couple of starts, things got shuffled around. But those three guys will start the first three games of a regional, and I think it would be in that order. 

And given our lack of pitching depth we almost have to go 3-0 with our weekend starters to win a regional. Keegan & Casey going 2-0 feels like a must.

[AUTigersfan89 256]

37 minutes ago, ellitor said:

And given our lack of pitching depth we almost have to go 3-0 with our weekend starters to win a regional. Keegan & Casey going 2-0 feels like a must.

I didn't watch Davis's start against Arkansas. He was fresh, but was he just off? I watched him pitch an excellent game against Tennessee and again with Arky (reg. Season) and MSU.

[ellitor 33,086]

1 hour ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

I didn't watch Davis's start against Arkansas. He was fresh, but was he just off? I watched him pitch an excellent game against Tennessee and again with Arky (reg. Season) and MSU.

Ran into a red hot Spamburger. loaded with Habanero peppers.

[Tigerbelle 5,299]

2 hours ago, ellitor said:

Ran into a red hot Spamburger. loaded with Habanero peppers.

 Other pitchers had issues with that guy. He tore up the Gator ace too. 

[Mikey 16,577]

5 hours ago, boomstick said:

But if we don't win the OM game, what's the point in saving Casey or Keegan? We pitched that game like we knew we had to win at least one. So we did everything we could to guarantee a win. If we needed to win two, we couldn't do that without winning the first game. 

And that proves my point. We shot the works to win one without regard to what came next. I suppose if you're playing from a position of weakness then you have to resort to something like that. I don't think we've been so bad that we have to pull out all the stops to beat one team that we just finished taking a series from when there are more games looming on the horizon.

[boomstick 1,315]

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

And that proves my point. We shot the works to win one without regard to what came next. I suppose if you're playing from a position of weakness then you have to resort to something like that. I don't think we've been so bad that we have to pull out all the stops to beat one team that we just finished taking a series from when there are more games looming on the horizon.

I think my point is you can't worry about what happens next when the first game means so much and is a must win to get to that next game. Ideally, I'm sure Butch would've loved to pitch one and get a win and have the other ready for the next game, but he had to get to that next game. And circumstances around Keegan and Casey forced his hand. 

I wouldn't advocate doing it in the regional, even though I think game one is an absolute must win, but I certainly understand the reasons it was done last week and have no issue with it.