Kayla Braud Cuts Auburn

[OlderWhiskey 953]

Dari Nowkah asked her what teams from the SEC had a chance to make it to the CWS, or words to that effect.  She listed Florida, aTm, Tennessee, uat, and LSU.  No mention of Auburn.  Maybe to be expected from a bama homer, and it's of course possible that she turns out to be right; but how can she reasonably fail to include Auburn in that list?  We've already taken the series from LSU; we took the series from Ole Miss, who swept LSU; and we took the series from Missouri, who took the series from uat.  Not to mention our #2 RPI and the fact that Clint Myers has about an 80% success rate at getting to OKC.  I guess my point is that if asked the same question, Emily Carosone would have included uat in her list.

The third game of the UT-uat series was cancelled tonight due to rain, with bama leading 3-1.   

[boomstick 1,315]

44 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Dari Nowkah asked her what teams from the SEC had a chance to make it to the CWS, or words to that effect.  She listed Florida, aTm, Tennessee, uat, and LSU.  No mention of Auburn.  Maybe to be expected from a bama homer, and it's of course possible that she turns out to be right; but how can she reasonably fail to include Auburn in that list?  We've already taken the series from LSU; we took the series from Ole Miss, who swept LSU; and we took the series from Missouri, who took the series from uat.  Not to mention our #2 RPI and the fact that Clint Myers has about an 80% success rate at getting to OKC.  I guess my point is that if asked the same question, Emily Carosone would have included uat in her list.

The third game of the UT-uat series was cancelled tonight due to rain, with bama leading 3-1.   

Based on her comments about Auburn's weakness, I'm guessing she doesn't think Auburn has enough pitching to make it to the WCWS. She might be right. Martin has been less than stellar, especially against the best competition she's faced this year. IMO Carlson can only carry us so far. And the offense hasn't shown enough consistency to rely on them to bail the team out of a bad pitching night, like Friday night against Mizzou.

This team seems to lack either more power in the lineup or that second strong pitcher. It has potential for both, but Martin hasn't been that pitcher yet and Cooper/Fagan/Veach/Shea haven't been as consistent or productive enough to this point in the season. 

[wareagle13 88]

1 hour ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Dari Nowkah asked her what teams from the SEC had a chance to make it to the CWS, or words to that effect.  She listed Florida, aTm, Tennessee, uat, and LSU.  No mention of Auburn.  Maybe to be expected from a bama homer, and it's of course possible that she turns out to be right; but how can she reasonably fail to include Auburn in that list?  We've already taken the series from LSU; we took the series from Ole Miss, who swept LSU; and we took the series from Missouri, who took the series from uat.  Not to mention our #2 RPI and the fact that Clint Myers has about an 80% success rate at getting to OKC.  I guess my point is that if asked the same question, Emily Carosone would have included uat in her list.

The third game of the UT-uat series was cancelled tonight due to rain, with bama leading 3-1.   

I think it really comes down to our bats. Makayla hasn't necessarily had a bad game, she's lost several 3-1,4-1 games. If we get matched up in a regional/super regional against a team with a pitcher like that JMU girl or Florida. Someone with a dominant rise ball, we could easily see an early exit. I genuinely believe we can take 2 out of three from any team in the nation. But we are just as capable if not more than likely to lay an egg batting-wise. Which will require stellar pitching in the other two games to give us a fighting chance.

[ellitor 33,082]

I don't think she was taking a shot at AU by not mentioning AU. As the team is right now I don't see us making the CWS either. Heck I have a bad feeling we won't win our regional the first weekend of the tournament. There's a lot more internal chemistry imbalance on this team than most people realize from the Corey sitch. It's hard to overcome chemistry imbalances like that to win in postseason play. Add to that Makayla has not been as effective this year as she was in clutch times last year. Plus hitting takes  times of being MIA. Also our best hitter from the Fall has been out all season. 2nd base defense has been a liability at inopportune times too.

I did not watch SEC Now so I don't know what Dari said but he may have said what teams had the best chance to make the CWS as Whiskey said. I would not be surprised if he actually asked something like what teams are best equipped to make it to the CWS or something similar. That's how he would normally phrase such a question & it's a bit different than what teams have a chance to make the CWS. As outlined above, AU is not best equipped to make the CWS this season though.

Here's to hoping they rise above everything & prove me wrong though.

[OlderWhiskey 953]

29 minutes ago, wareagle13 said:

I think it really comes down to our bats. Makayla hasn't necessarily had a bad game, she's lost several 3-1,4-1 games. If we get matched up in a regional/super regional against a team with a pitcher like that JMU girl or Florida. Someone with a dominant rise ball, we could easily see an early exit. I genuinely believe we can take 2 out of three from any team in the nation. But we are just as capable if not more than likely to lay an egg batting-wise. Which will require stellar pitching in the other two games to give us a fighting chance.

I think you're wrong there.  She lost the 8-0 LSU game, the 7-0 Florida game, and the 10-4 Ole Miss game.  I'm encouraged that she had better results in her last two outings.

[wareagle13 88]

6 minutes ago, ellitor said:

I don't think she was taking a shot at AU by not mentioning AU. As the team is right now I don't see us making the CWS either. Heck I have a bad feeling we won't win our regional the first weekend of the tournament. There's a lot more internal chemistry imbalance on this team than most people realize from the Corey sitch. It's hard to overcome chemistry imbalances like that to win in postseason play. Add to that Makayla has not been as effective this year as she was in clutch times last year. Plus hitting takes  times of being MIA. Also our best hitter from the Fall has been out all season. 2nd base defense has been a liability at inopportune times too.

I did not watch SEC Now so I don't know what Dari said but he may have said what teams had the best chance to make the CWS as Whiskey said. I would not be surprised if he actually asked something like what teams are best equipped to make it to the CWS or something similar. That's how he would normally phrase such a question & it's a bit different than what teams have a chance to make the CWS. As outlined above, AU is not best equipped to make the CWS this season though.

Here's to hoping they rise above everything & prove me wrong though.

Any word on Snow? The vagueness of the condition keeping her out is concerning just from a humanistic stand point. I get keeping things with in the family i do, but at a certain point being open about the process is healthier than hiding behind speculation. I speak only from a personal perspective as a friend of my family was a cheerleader at Alabama and came down with cancer, and she and her family we're really open about the process and it made her illness easier to deal with.

[wareagle13 88]

5 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

I think you're wrong there.  She lost the 8-0 LSU game, the 7-0 Florida game, and the 10-4 Ole Miss game.  I'm encouraged that she had better results in her last two outings.

Must be selective memory then. nevermind me haha.

[ellitor 33,082]

19 minutes ago, wareagle13 said:

Any word on Snow? The vagueness of the condition keeping her out is concerning just from a humanistic stand point. I get keeping things with in the family i do, but at a certain point being open about the process is healthier than hiding behind speculation.

She has a rare medical condition that is being treated in Cali. She is recovering well. That's all we need to know.

[ellitor 33,082]

20 minutes ago, wareagle13 said:

Must be selective memory then. nevermind me haha.

Must be...

That 7 runs in her short outing versus Ole Miss was awful. There's no way of Sugar coating that. Also I don't think she had 3 bad games last year like the ones Whiskey referenced from this year. I can only remember 1 at Tennessee last year. Also, her ERA last year was 1.57. It's 1.98 this year. Even though 1.98 is very good, it's a bit misleading. Her ERA was under 1.00 before conference play began. Her ERA in SEC games is 5.96. The way our bats leave at times we can't win those games giving up runs like that. She has struggled overall in SEC play this year.

[Mikey 16,576]

7 hours ago, ellitor said:

She has a rare medical condition that is being treated in Cali. She is recovering well. That's all we need to know.

That is indeed all we "need" to know. However, as @wareagle13 said above, truth is better than speculation. If someone has come down with beri-beri, why not just say so and everyone can then move on, offer prayers or whatever they choose? As long as something simple is kept a secret there will be rumors and speculation. Rumors and speculation tend towards the dark side of the spectrum.

[ellitor 33,082]

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

That is indeed all we "need" to know. However, as @wareagle13 said above, truth is better than speculation. If someone has come down with beri-beri, why not just say so and everyone can then move on, offer prayers or whatever they choose? As long as something simple is kept a secret there will be rumors and speculation. Rumors and speculation tend towards the dark side of the spectrum.

Fair point.

[AU64 10,122]

Despite our high RPI and ranking..I think we are well less than 50:50 to get past the Regionals.  

Team has two fundamental issues....defense and hitting ...which somehow the coaches have been able to overcome.    All those double plays have seemed to offset the errors.....but the LOBs are still out there...I'm sure someone knows or can find out, but how many times have we left the bases loaded this season....and often without getting a run in ahead of that situation? 

Additionally, with the "chemistry" comments (which seem valid) and the Corey issue.....this season has been a coaching miracle in my view.  Maybe something will break for Martin and some of the batters the next few weeks....otherwise. IMO....not enough quality / depth to go far against the top pitchers.

[ellitor 33,082]

5 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Despite our high RPI and ranking..I think we are well less than 50:50 to get past the Regionals.

FTR even though I said I have a bad feeling of them not getting past regionals the first week  their chances of doing so are at minimum 50%. I would give them less than 50% of getting past Super Regionals on the 2nd weekend though to make the CWS.

[boomstick 1,315]

16 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Despite our high RPI and ranking..I think we are well less than 50:50 to get past the Regionals.  

Team has two fundamental issues....defense and hitting ...which somehow the coaches have been able to overcome.    All those double plays have seemed to offset the errors.....but the LOBs are still out there...I'm sure someone knows or can find out, but how many times have we left the bases loaded this season....and often without getting a run in ahead of that situation? 

Additionally, with the "chemistry" comments (which seem valid) and the Corey issue.....this season has been a coaching miracle in my view.  Maybe something will break for Martin and some of the batters the next few weeks....otherwise. IMO....not enough quality / depth to go far against the top pitchers.

Depends on who the #2 team is in the regional. I expect us to host a regional, and we're in good shape to host a Super right now as well. If we draw a #2 with a dominant pitcher (especially someone with a great rise ball), we might be in trouble. Or if we draw a great hitting team that has a lot of power, it could be trouble. But, in general, I'm not worried as much about the regionals as I am the supers. I think that's where we're going to have problems if Martin can't find herself. I don't think Carlson is dominant enough, the defense elite enough, and the offense consistent enough to win a super right now.

The good thing is they still have time to get ready. Martin pitched better her last outing. Rivera and Greenwood seem to be making strides at the plate. And the defense, particularly Fagan and 2B (whether Crack or KK) have played better the last couple games. Maybe they can round into great form going into the postseason.

[AU64 10,122]

27 minutes ago, ellitor said:

FTR even though I said I have a bad feeling of them not getting past regionals the first week  their chances of doing so are at minimum 50%. I would give them less than 50% of getting past Super Regionals on the 2nd weekend though to make the CWS.

That seems reasonable......as noted...depends on who we get as an opponent and what their pitching looks like.  Usually it's the match-ups that matter....

[OlderWhiskey 953]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

Despite our high RPI and ranking..I think we are well less than 50:50 to get past the Regionals.  

Team has two fundamental issues....defense and hitting ...which somehow the coaches have been able to overcome.    All those double plays have seemed to offset the errors.....but the LOBs are still out there...I'm sure someone knows or can find out, but how many times have we left the bases loaded this season....and often without getting a run in ahead of that situation? 

Additionally, with the "chemistry" comments (which seem valid) and the Corey issue.....this season has been a coaching miracle in my view.  Maybe something will break for Martin and some of the batters the next few weeks....otherwise. IMO....not enough quality / depth to go far against the top pitchers.

I can't give you that exact thing . . . But our total LOBs are up slightly, maybe not as much as you think.  Last year, we had 498 LOBs in 70 games for 7.1 per game.  This year, we're at 315 LOB through 43 games for 7.33 per game.  Another little fact I turned up while wading through the stats:  Alyssa Rivera is hitting .448 in conference play.  

[AU64 10,122]

49 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

I can't give you that exact thing . . . But our total LOBs are up slightly, maybe not as much as you think.  Last year, we had 498 LOBs in 70 games for 7.1 per game.  This year, we're at 315 LOB through 43 games for 7.33 per game.  Another little fact I turned up while wading through the stats:  Alyssa Rivera is hitting .448 in conference play.  

I'm thinking that base hits and base runners are harder to come by this season.    And maybe the pure LOB numbers per game aren't telling the entire story.

I'm thinking (without doing any research) that we have fewer runners reach base per game this year and leave more of them on...   Not taking advantage of our opportunities as well?

[OlderWhiskey 953]

3 hours ago, AU64 said:

I'm thinking that base hits and base runners are harder to come by this season.    And maybe the pure LOB numbers per game aren't telling the entire story.

I'm thinking (without doing any research) that we have fewer runners reach base per game this year and leave more of them on...   Not taking advantage of our opportunities as well?

I took a quick look at that by adding hits, walks, hbp, and errors to get a total baserunners number (subtracting the homers).  Every error doesn't necessarily add a baserunner, but it's a good estimate.  In 2016, we had 14.67 baserunners/game.  Minus the 7.1 lob,  That should be 7.57 runs/gm.  This year, it came to 13.00 baserunners/gm.  Minus the 7.33, it's 5.67 runs/gm.  That isn't 100% accurate (double plays, etc.) but a good representation of the situation.  If we add back the homer numbers, the differential is greater. 

[AU64 10,122]

5 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

I took a quick look at that by adding hits, walks, hbp, and errors to get a total baserunners number (subtracting the homers).  Every error doesn't necessarily add a baserunner, but it's a good estimate.  In 2016, we had 14.67 baserunners/game.  Minus the 7.1 lob,  That should be 7.57 runs/gm.  This year, it came to 13.00 baserunners/gm.  Minus the 7.33, it's 5.67 runs/gm.  That isn't 100% accurate (double plays, etc.) but a good representation of the situation.  If we add back the homer numbers, the differential is greater. 

Nicely done....fewer base runners per game this year with result that the LOBs make a greater impact....and about 2 fewer runs per game  So pitchers getting less run support.

Batting          2016 vs 2017 to date...     .

 AU                .317           . 285

Opponent     .225            .219

AU ERA                  is slightly better this year over all....thanks to Carlson's outstanding season.

Watching the games it looks like more of a struggle this season...team batting average down 10% makes the difference i guess....other stats are not that different.

[OlderWhiskey 953]

And if you back up to 2015, Auburn's team BA was .339 (opponents' .255); so both Auburn and its opponents are hitting worse.  

[AUBwins 10,074]

The lack of consistent power can change the perspective of the offense for sure.  Snow would have been the missing piece I think. Last year Carosone, Cooper, and Rhodes, were good for a homer a game it felt like amongst the 3 of them. AU would get singles, walks etc to load the bases. Continue to get single runs but leave the bases juiced until one of the Big 3 went yard! We have flirted with the formula a little at times this year but missing the "Put the game away" homerun. I also think the lack of a consistent 3rd pitcher every 5th game or so hurts. Rachel Walters was much more valuable than we may have realized at the time. Maybe Mak is overworked because they don't have a 3rd starter. Ashley has done some relief but not ready to start. Rachel was a senior, and Ashley a freshman. Obviously a learning curve there, but maybe Jenna should be used more. She has gotten outs when in the circle. 

[4WDE 89]

8 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

I took a quick look at that by adding hits, walks, hbp, and errors to get a total baserunners number (subtracting the homers).  Every error doesn't necessarily add a baserunner, but it's a good estimate.  In 2016, we had 14.67 baserunners/game.  Minus the 7.1 lob,  That should be 7.57 runs/gm.  This year, it came to 13.00 baserunners/gm.  Minus the 7.33, it's 5.67 runs/gm.  That isn't 100% accurate (double plays, etc.) but a good representation of the situation.  If we add back the homer numbers, the differential is greater. 

Very nice getting some numbers to reference.  Kudos my friend!

[AU64 10,122]

13 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

And if you back up to 2015, Auburn's team BA was .339 (opponents' .255); so both Auburn and its opponents are hitting worse.  

Wondering if the game has changed that quickly....or did we just have a special group of hitters that were here when Clint arrived?  

No question Tina Deese had gotten some some good talent her last season.   Lexi Davis was a nationally known pitcher....maybe not like Carlson but she was the workhorse for 3 seasons and played a big role her senior season too.

It is hard for me to evaluate our incoming talent....We have lost some really good bats the past two years....and not sure have replaced them with equal talent yet.  Rivera looking really good now...otherwise who hits for power and average  

[OlderWhiskey 953]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

Wondering if the game has changed that quickly....or did we just have a special group of hitters that were here when Clint arrived?  

No question Tina Deese had gotten some some good talent her last season.   Lexi Davis was a nationally known pitcher....maybe not like Carlson but she was the workhorse for 3 seasons and played a big role her senior season too.

It is hard for me to evaluate our incoming talent....We have lost some really good bats the past two years....and not sure have replaced them with equal talent yet.  Rivera looking really good now...otherwise who hits for power and average  

We're on the same wavelength - although I was thinking more about the pitchers.  I'm a johnny-come-lately to this sport,others may have better historical perspective; but it seems to me that interest in softball in the SEC is a relatively recent thing.  UT was the first SEC team in the CWS, 2003 I think.  Maybe we're on a steep curve of pitcher development, leading to lower batting averages in general.  I note a lot of SEC pitchers come from outside SEC country, starting with our two starters.  I know this is murky, but I think you get the idea I'm driving at. 

[AU64 10,122]

21 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

We're on the same wavelength - although I was thinking more about the pitchers.  I'm a johnny-come-lately to this sport,others may have better historical perspective; but it seems to me that interest in softball in the SEC is a relatively recent thing.  UT was the first SEC team in the CWS, 2003 I think.  Maybe we're on a steep curve of pitcher development, leading to lower batting averages in general.  I note a lot of SEC pitchers come from outside SEC country, starting with our two starters.  I know this is murky, but I think you get the idea I'm driving at. 

Maybe like you ...my history with softball started pretty much with SEC TV and Clint though I knew Lexi Davis from her HS days in NC...she was a pretty big catch for AU and signed before Clint.    But no doubt we have to go out of state for the better talent...at least for the numbers.   Interesting site shows where the better schools are nationwide. Florida and Georgia in recruiting neighborhood but lots of schools competing for those girls. 

http://www.maxpreps.com/polls/softball/xcellent25.htm