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2018 D Line Recruiting

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McLoofus    3,138

It was obviously a pro. 6 first rounders out of 32 guys when there are literally a million high school football players- which you can probably distill down to at least 100k seniors- is pretty good. Especially since several more of those 5* guys got drafted in later rounds, several of them are still in college and counted upon to be major contributors (one Tre Williams comes to mind), etc. 

Or... what E said. 

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mcgufcm    743

I think of four-star signees now as a sort of baseline. I realize threes are in the middle, but if you look at the SEC, I'm sure you could figure out what % four and five-star signees make up for the Alabamas, Auburns, and UGAs of the world. It's a heck of a lot more than 5%. Given the sheer volume of four star composite guys, you can't look at that and seriously say that recruiting services are killing it by hitting 2/3s of the first round.

I mean, in the coming class (for example), the top 321 players are four star or higher (without counting JUCO guys). Extrapolated over multiple seasons, that would give you around 400 players (draft eligible juniors and fifth-year seniors) in any particular NFL draft that were rated four star or higher. So yeah. I guess I would expect at least 66% of the first round to come from that group.

The more interesting question, to me, is:  when the sites all agree that a prospect is GREAT, what is the outcome for that guy? That's the five star analysis. If the sites are great at talent evaluation and projection, you would expect that more than four of the 32 five star players in a given class would be first rounders, right? I would.

I saw another spot that 10 former five star guys went in the first round. THAT is more like it, but it includes guys like Foster and Howard who really didn't have a major impact in their first few seasons (other than on special teams). I was making two points:  (1) you still have to be patient with five-star signees and (2) there are still a bunch of misses in the elite recruit category.

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mcgufcm    743

@McLoofus As I was saying, it's a bit of a straw man to say "they're nailing it because there are 1 bajillion high school players to chose from" when the colleges are really signalling the list by the guys they sign. It's not true that you have an equal chance of making the NFL signing with Southern Miss as signing with LSU or MSU. For major programs, four star is the norm, not the exception.

Taking Auburn as an example (for obvious reasons), in the last four years, we've signed a total of 50 high school, non-kickers rated four star or better. We've signed a total of 30 high school, non-kickers rated three star or lower. Given that as a start point for major programs, it's not interesting to me if the first round is primarily made up of guys with four or five star ratings. You'd be just as likely to hit 66% if you simply assumed that all players signing with major colleges are four or five star players. I bet 66% of all first rounders come from major programs. So I need to see more than just "they signed with a good school therefore they are good."

For guys with that consensus tag, the hit rate should be really high. An interesting question:  what would you consider a "hit" for a five star player. According to Rivals, it's a "franchise player deemed to have excellent pro potential" and something above an "all-american candidate." If that's right, you would say a five star didn't really hit his projection if he's All-SEC and picked in the third round (Monty Adams, for example). Do you agree with that? I'm not sure I do, but maybe. Is a five star only a "hit" if he's a first or second rounder and/or an All-American?

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ellitor    4,506
3 minutes ago, mcgufcm said:

For guys with that consensus tag, the hit rate should be really high.

Nothing should be considered really high when it comes to how humans will develop. That is one of the most inexact things in existence. There are just too many psychological & sociological factors involved. In the specific case of recruits psychological & sociological factors can't even be factored in by recruiting sites 99% of the time when evaluating recruits. They don't have the time needed or resources to even get that deep with a recruit.

To take a 5% pool of kids based on their physical and athletic ability & have 66% of the top 32 picks 3-4 years later come from that 5% is pretty damn good to be honest.

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McLoofus    3,138

Who said they're "nailing it"? 

Recruiting service rankings are a pretty good indicator of the overall level of talent on a football team and a pretty good predictor of which players make it to the NFL. Again, I directed my post to those who think that how a team finishes in the recruiting rankings doesn't matter. The teams who finish high win championships, period. I'm not trying to convince anyone that they're a Magic 8 Ball with 99% accuracy. As @ellitor points out again, that's impossible. 

As for what I consider a "hit", it would be all conference and getting drafted. That's a hell of a career for anyone. 1,000,000 kids in high school vs 1,700 active NFL players in any given year. I'm just glad I'm not the one out there chasing high school kids around to try to form an educated guess.

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Beaker    283

Is it me or does it seem like the DL is awfully quiet regarding recruits?  A Fox, Newkirk I read about and Tanner, but where are burly, nasty guys we are gonna need?   After last year's tremendous results and the gifted recruiters we have on that side of the ball, seems quiet.  Delete the thread if I am wrong or if I need to search harder.  

Edited by Beaker

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Mikey    1,407

"It's only June". :thumbsdown: The lack of chatter is disturbing. Maybe all of our "experts" and so enthralled with the QB recruiting that they don't have time for D-line talk. Or maybe we are whiffing, it wouldn't be the first time we have ignored a position only to suffer the consequences later.

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bigbird    5,210
4 minutes ago, Mikey said:

"It's only June". :thumbsdown: The lack of chatter is disturbing. Maybe all of our "experts" and so enthralled with the QB recruiting that they don't have time for D-line talk. Or maybe we are whiffing, it wouldn't be the first time we have ignored a position only to suffer the consequences later.

Really? Which one?

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Mikey    1,407
2 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Really? Which one?

Linebacker. Five years of mediocre play. Edit: 2011 through 2015, if someone's memory fails.

Edited by Mikey
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ellitor    4,506
47 minutes ago, Beaker said:

Is it me or does it seem like the DL is awfully quiet regarding recruits?  A Fox, Newkirk I read about and Tanner, but where are burly, nasty guys we are gonna need?   After last year's tremendous results and the gifted recruiters we have on that side of the ball, seems quiet.  Delete the thread if I am wrong or if I need to search harder.  

We already have a thread on the D Line and it's merged now so you can look back for input.

To address your post we are taking 4 and maybe a 5th DL in this class if #5 is the right guy. 1 DE, 1 Buck, 2 -3 DTs. We have Newkirk who the staff sees as a 3 technique DT. All AU sources feel we lead for 4* DT Coynis Miller but with Bama hanging around it obviously is a precarious lead. At DE/Buck it appears to be 2 of 3 of Jibunor, Fox, & Tannor if we get them. Hope that helps.

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oracle79    667
53 minutes ago, Beaker said:

After last year's tremendous results

Truesdell and Jackson?  Am I missing something or possibly have dementia?:dunno:

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ellitor    4,506
1 minute ago, oracle79 said:

Truesdell and Jackson?  Am I missing something or possibly have dementia?:dunno:

He didn't specify DT. Big Cat Bryant was a great get at DE. I agree with you though. On paper at least I don't see a DL class of BCB, Truesdell, Jackson, & Manning tremendous.

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oracle79    667
5 minutes ago, ellitor said:

He didn't specify DT. Big Cat Bryant was a great get at DE. I agree with you though. On paper at least I don't see a DL class of BCB, Truesdell, Jackson, & Manning tremendous.

247 didn't list Bryant as DE and I forgot about Manning.  That makes me feel a little better.

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bigbird    5,210
50 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Linebacker. Five years of mediocre play. Edit: 2011 through 2015, if someone's memory fails.

It was sarcasm...

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ellitor    4,506
10 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

247 didn't list Bryant as DE

They have him as a WDE...Weakside Defensive End.

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ellitor    4,506
2 minutes ago, bigbird said:

It was sarcasm...

Right... because even an AU baby fresh out of the womb knew what Mikey was going to say.

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oracle79    667
2 minutes ago, ellitor said:

They have him as a WDE...Weakside Defensive End.

Doh! Missed it.  Was just looking for DE.

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bigbird    5,210
56 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Right... because even an AU baby fresh out of the womb knew what Mikey was going to say.

:laugh: Yep!

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milehighfan    368
2 hours ago, Mikey said:

"It's only June". :thumbsdown: The lack of chatter is disturbing. Maybe all of our "experts" and so enthralled with the QB recruiting that they don't have time for D-line talk. Or maybe we are whiffing, it wouldn't be the first time we have ignored a position only to suffer the consequences later.

I agree with you, Mikey. I hope we get JF and DP and some outstanding  WR's not to mention some pancake laying OL

But I remember how good we were when we had some bad a$$ DL who put the fear of GOD into you. I hope we can get those kind of defensive lineman again, you know, like right now.

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ClaytonAU    654
4 hours ago, Mikey said:

"It's only June". :thumbsdown: The lack of chatter is disturbing. Maybe all of our "experts" and so enthralled with the QB recruiting that they don't have time for D-line talk. Or maybe we are whiffing, it wouldn't be the first time we have ignored a position only to suffer the consequences later.

You've been quite the negative Nancy around here lately. 

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corchjay    1,466

Garner's recruiting and what he puts on the field speaks for itself.  DL recruiting is probably the most important on the field, in my opinion, and he's been a master at it for many years.  That's the only position grouping I never worry about.  Do we all want the 5 stars yep but there are only about 3-4 each year to get.  

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Mikey    1,407
12 hours ago, ClaytonAU said:

You've been quite the negative Nancy around here lately. 

I call it like I see it. Prospects for a successful 2017 season look great. D-line recruiting, not so great at this point in time.

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gctiger    90
1 hour ago, Mikey said:

I call it like I see it. Prospects for a successful 2017 season look great. D-line recruiting, not so great at this point in time.

With only 6 commitments, I would think you could say that about most positions at this point.  

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Mikey    1,407
12 hours ago, gctiger said:

With only 6 commitments, I would think you could say that about most positions at this point.  

The topic of this thread is D-line recruiting.

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