French election

[TexasTiger 12,811]

The odds favor a centrist not tied to a political party. Hopefully a trend. Thoughts?

[I_M4_AU 7,772]

The odds were America was to have its first female president in 2017 too.  It will be interesting to see where France is in their thinking.  

[Mims44 1,864]

Last time I read up on it, some of the leading people were favoring leaving the EU. It read like a doomsday piece

It will be interesting to say the least.

[AUDub 11,131]

14 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

The odds were America was to have its first female president in 2017 too.  It will be interesting to see where France is in their thinking.

Macron, the pro-EU, free market apologist, should win this handily.Trying to draw parallels between Macron-Le Pen and Clinton-Trump (or Brexit) makes little sense. Her deficit is much higher. Macron has a something like a 20 point lead going in to the runoff. If Clinton-Trump was an upset, this would be the Hewitt Trussville High School Huskies beating the New England Patriots.

Not saying it couldn't happen, and a lot could change before the vote, but at this point Le Pen needs a miracle.

[I_M4_AU 7,772]

34 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

Macron, the pro-EU, free market apologist, should win this handily.Trying to draw parallels between Macron-Le Pen and Clinton-Trump (or Brexit) makes little sense. Her deficit is much higher. Macron has a something like a 20 point lead going in to the runoff. If Clinton-Trump was an upset, this would be the Hewitt Trussville High School Huskies beating the New England Patriots.

Not saying it couldn't happen, and a lot could change before the vote, but at this point Le Pen needs a miracle.

So, it makes little sense because the deficit is much higher?  France has had issues with terrorism lately and who knows how that will play out in the elections?  I won't hazard a guess at the outcome, but I'll be watching closely.  With Brexit and Trump's election, it will be interesting to see which trend the French will go with.  If (and its a big if) Le Pen wins and there is a Fenxite referendum, watch out.  

If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts, but if he will content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.

Francis Bacon 1561 - 1626

[AUDub 11,131]

1 hour ago, I_M4_AU said:

So, it makes little sense because the deficit is much higher?  France has had issues with terrorism lately and who knows how that will play out in the elections?  I won't hazard a guess at the outcome, but I'll be watching closely.  With Brexit and Trump's election, it will be interesting to see which trend the French will go with.  If (and its a big if) Le Pen wins and there is a Fenxite referendum, watch out.  

Correct. Thing is, their polling has been very good. It pretty much nailed this first round. As it stands, I think he'll beat her something like 60-40 even if things skew heavily her way. 

Difference between Clinton and Trump in terms of polls was 2-3% points.

Remain only led Leave by 2.4% and British polls tend to be s***.

Difference between Macron and Le Pen in terms of polls is over 20% in favor of Macron.

Obviously anything could happen and she could win but the situation isn't comparable. Brexit/Trump were slight underdogs, while Le Pen really needs a miracle.

[Strychnine 1,802]

1 hour ago, Bigbens42 said:

Macron, the pro-EU, free market apologist, should win this handily.Trying to draw parallels between Macron-Le Pen and Clinton-Trump (or Brexit) makes little sense. Her deficit is much higher. Macron has a something like a 20 point lead going in to the runoff. If Clinton-Trump was an upset, this would be the Hewitt Trussville High School Huskies beating the New England Patriots.

Not saying it couldn't happen, and a lot could change before the vote, but at this point Le Pen needs a miracle.

 

Indeed.  Given scandal, one could argue that Fillon was the closest thing they had to a HIllary Clinton-esque candidate, yet he managed 3rd place with 19.9%.  He is already urging his supporters to back Macron, as is Hamon.  The closest parallel to American politics would be a hypothetical popular independent moderate vs Trump, with the Republicans and Democrats BOTH supporting the independent moderate.

[I_M4_AU 7,772]

Well, the market is reacting positively to Marcon's showing in the elections results.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/

 

[AUDub 11,131]

37 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Well, the market is reacting positively to Marcon's showing in the elections results.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/

There was fear that the far-left euroskeptic candidate (Mélenchon) would face off against the far-right euroskeptic candidate, which would really be a lose-lose for markets. So a centrist pro-EU candidate who is way ahead in polling is about the best case scenario. She had good odds against a far-left candidate but those odds go way down against a centrist.

[autigeremt 6,569]

Gov. Kasich....come on down.

[AUDub 11,131]

Le Pen has stepped down from the leadership post of the Front National. Probably a Hail Mary. She knows the FN name is poison among mainstream voters.

[metafour 4,958]

Never trust a man who commits to a long-term reverse pedophilic relationship.  Dude got into a romantic relationship with his drama teacher at like 16/17 and they're now married...I think she's got kids from her past marriage that are older than he is.  Creepy as hell; at best you're looking at some mommy issues from Macron.

[AUDub 11,131]

4 hours ago, metafour said:

Never trust a man who commits to a long-term reverse pedophilic relationship.  Dude got into a romantic relationship with his drama teacher at like 16/17 and they're now married...I think she's got kids from her past marriage that are older than he is.  Creepy as hell; at best you're looking at some mommy issues from Macron.

Aaaand now I know you peruse r/The_Donald. What's next? Going to rage about his Rothschild connections?

Key question: When did they officialy become a couple? You said 16/17. What's the age of consent in France? 

If it was when he was above the age of consent? **** it. Who cares.

If it was when he was incapable of informed consent? Then it was inappropriate because of his age when it started. But, as he was a teen, he would not be considered the inappropriate party, but the innocent one. And he is the one running for office, not his wife.

Macron is basically a bland, inoffensive blank slate. As inoffensive as a centrist could possibly be, appeals to everyone, better than the alternative. Hell, I'm surprised anyone on the right here prefers Le Pen. She's economically leftist enough to make Bernie Sanders blush.

[I_M4_AU 7,772]

8 hours ago, Bigbens42 said:

Aaaand now I know you peruse r/The_Donald. What's next? Going to rage about his Rothschild connections?

Key question: When did they officialy become a couple? You said 16/17. What's the age of consent in France? 

If it was when he was above the age of consent? **** it. Who cares.

If it was when he was incapable of informed consent? Then it was inappropriate because of his age when it started. But, as he was a teen, he would not be considered the inappropriate party, but the innocent one. And he is the one running for office, not his wife.

Macron is basically a bland, inoffensive blank slate. As inoffensive as a centrist could possibly be, appeals to everyone, better than the alternative. Hell, I'm surprised anyone on the right here prefers Le Pen. She's economically leftist enough to make Bernie Sanders blush.

And you said the comparison to Trump/Clinton made little sense.

[AUDub 11,131]

Just now, I_M4_AU said:

And you said the comparison to Trump/Clinton made little sense.

LOL.! That's true, I guess. 

That, and a 24 year gap between couples. It's OK when the man is older though. 

[shabby 1,956]

Polls smolls. Makes no difference. Russia will pick the winner and that's who it will be. Seriously France is already reporting Russian fake news stories. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/world/europe/french-election-russia.amp.html

[AUDub 11,131]

So Macron's e-mail has been dumped on /pol/

One interesting thing is that France blacks out their media the day before the election. The media can't talk about it since it was dumped late on Friday. You can bet the Twitter shills will be working overtime this weekend. 

[TexasTiger 12,811]

55 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

So Macron's e-mail has been dumped on /pol/

One interesting thing is that France blacks out their media the day before the election. The media can't talk about it since it was dumped late on Friday. You can bet the Twitter shills will be working overtime this weekend. 

Probably means speculation is more damaging than anything in the emails.

[AUDub 11,131]

14 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

Probably means speculation is more damaging than anything in the emails.

Yeah, I imagine there's not much there. Guy's about as inoffensive our team in 2012.

But I seriously doubt the folks pouring through it read French and will misinterpret a bunch of it. French, with its many subtleties, doesn't mix well with google translate. 

[TexasTiger 12,811]

6 minutes ago, Bigbens42 said:

Yeah, I imagine there's not much there. Guy's about as inoffensive our team in 2012.

But I seriously doubt the folks pouring through it read French and will misinterpret a bunch of it. French, with its many subtleties, doesn't mix well with google translate. 

I heard there are fake emails mixed with real. Regardless, it will take a while to verify.

[AUUSN 823]

This Is the Evidence Linking Russian Hackers to the French Election

 

In the last two months, according to the cybersecurity firm Trend Micro, the Russian hacking group known as "Fancy Bear" or APT28 registered at least four different fake domains in an apparent attempt to launch a phishing campaign against Emmanuel Macron, the moderate and pro-European candidate who won the election's first round on Sunday. The company, however, only published one of those domains, and didn't reveal why it was so confident that Fancy Bear was behind the alleged phishing campaign.

Now, other researchers are finding new clues that appear to point to Fancy Bear.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/evidence-linking-russian-hackers-fancy-bear-to-macron-phishing

[AUDub 11,131]

Sanity prevails. He's crushing her. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/07/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidency-marine-le-pen

[homersapien 11,354]

High water mark of alt-right nationalism?

[homersapien 11,354]

3 hours ago, Bigbens42 said:

Sanity prevails. He's crushing her. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/07/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidency-marine-le-pen

I heard an analysis that Marine-le-pen is playing the long game.  Just making the run-off was a huge victory for her in the greater scheme.

I was about to say she is a more dangerious politician than Trump, when I remembered we've already elected Trump POTUS.  

This is the longest bad dream I have ever experienced.  

Our electoral process sucks.

[AUDub 11,131]

4 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I heard an analysis that Marine-le-pen is playing the long game.  Just making the run-off was a huge victory for her in the greater scheme.

I was about to say she is a more dangerious politician than Trump, when I remembered we've already elected Trump POTUS.  

This is the longest bad dream I have ever experienced.  

Our electoral process sucks.

Her dad made the runoff in the past and got crushed too, for pretty much the same reason. A wide field splitting the vote. Of course, he lost to Chirac.

Macron definitely needs to address the fears that lead people to support Le Pen. If nothing is done, the far-right could become a more serious contender in French politics.