Tallahassee Regional: AU vs. UCF Preview

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

The Auburn Tigers (35-24, 17-16 SEC) will be the 3 seed in the Florida State regional. They will play the 2 seeded UCF Knights (40-20, 17-11 AAC) at 12 Noon Eastern Time (11am CT) on Friday, June 2nd. 

The winner of that game will play the winner of the game between the 1 seeded (and hosting team) ACC Tournament Champion Florida State Seminoles (39-20, 18-14 ACC) and the 4 seed, OVC Tournament Champion, The Tennessee Tech Tigers (40-19, 23-7 OVC). 

 

Heres how the bracket looks-

1 Florida State vs 4 Tennessee Tech

2 Central Florida vs 3 Auburn

 

Since there's not much to do but speculate before then, here's some numbers on UCF and how we match up with them. 

 

OFFENSIVE

 

1.) UCF and Auburn both have very similar On Base Percentage numbers. UCF with 0.368 and Auburn has the slight edge at 0.369. Given Auburn plays in what is most likely the strongest conference in the nation, this is even more impressive. ADVANTAGE: Auburn.

2.) UCF hits more home runs than Auburn. UCF has 49 on the year to Auburn's 28, although Auburn's home runs per game have gone up over the past few SEC series. UCF probably has a few more guys that are capable of the long ball at any time. ADVANTAGE: UCF

3.) Auburn and UCF are pretty even in the amount of doubles and triples they have hit, but UCF also has about 70 more at bats on the year than Auburn, so it is fair to say Auburn may have a slight edge in extra base hits that are not home runs per at bat. Auburn has hit more doubles with 118 to UCF's 111, and UCF has edged Auburn in triples 17-13. ADVANTAGE: Auburn 

4.) In 60 games played this season, UCF has scored 383 runs, good for 6.38 runs per game. Auburn, on the other hand has scored 344 runs in 59 games played, 5.83 runs per game. ADVANTAGE: UCF

OVERALL OFFENSIVE ADVANTAGE: Null. 

I don't see UCF being a whole lot more of an offensive threat than we are. They can certainly hit for power more but their numbers are about that of an average SEC team in their conference. They will be good enough to score, but I do not believe at will. No one has much of an advantage. 

 

DEFENSIVE

 

5.) On the other side of the ball, UCF has given up 215 runs, so opponents are averaging 3.58 runs per game. Auburn has given up 282 runs in 59 games, or 4.78 runs per game. ADVANTAGE: UCF 

6.) UCF's Top 3 pitchers in ERA have an average ERA of 2.99. Auburn's top 3 pitchers average 2.49 in ERA. Although UCF does have a lower team ERA than Auburn, both teams will have their best arms available against each other, and Auburn's best guys look to be better than UCF's on paper. ADVANTAGE: Auburn.

7.) Auburn fields at a 0.975 clip with 56 errors. UCF fields at 0.971 and has made 67 errors on the season. UCF will be more prone to errors than Auburn, giving up unearned bases and possibly runs. The Tigers only are good for 0.949 errors per game while the UCF Knights will make around 1.112 errors per game. ADVANTAGE: Auburn.

OVERALL DEFENSIVE ADVANTAGE: Auburn.  Again, with Auburn playing in the SEC, it seems much tougher to me to be able to not only score runs, but hold other teams to less runs. Therefore, since Auburn has slight leads in 2 main defensive categories anyways, I'd give us the advantage here. 

 

UCF has found a way to win 40 games, which should be highly respected. They will also have some games where they can produce runs at a high number. Their claims to fame are that they took 2 of 3 against Houston in Orlando, they tripped up Florida earlier this year in a midweek contest 11-2, they beat a very good South Florida 2 out of 6 (yes they played 6 times), beat Bethune-Cookman (team that won their conference and reached the tournament), and scored 21 runs in a game against Central Michigan this year, and scored double-digit runs in 13 games this year. To put this in perspective, Auburn has only done this 8 times. UCF can score at times, but can also be subject to some poor offensive performances, in fact, they've scored 3 runs or less in 18 of their 60 games played. Hot and Cold offenses sound pretty familiar to Auburn fans this year who have a similar line with 19 instances of this in 59 games played.

I think we will start Keegan on the hill and leave Mize alone until day 2 to either win a winners bracket game and get to the finals, or win an elimination game and live to fight another day. If Keegan can perform like we all know he can, Auburn will just need to manufacture a few runs to win the game. The key is to hold the "little bit above-average" UCF offense in check. 

That's my best google search analysis that I can do. Hope this provides some insight to the UCF team. Definitely a winnable regional, let's go tear through it!! War Eagle, we're competing for a national championship Tiger fans! 

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks...good work on short notice.....

Looks like anybody's game.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

Damn fine preview 'brotha, very nice job.

Assuming UCF starts AAC co-pitcher of the year Robby Howell (10-0, 3.28 ERA) we will see a ton of sliders away to right handers  and change-ups down and in.  Tiger hitters have shown an ability to be patient, assume they will hang out over the plate looking for the off-speed and adjust since Howell does not have an over powering fastball (upper 80's).  

[boomstick 1,315]

UCF's presumed starter, Howell, has some impressive numbers. In his last 6 starts, he's gone at least 6 IP in each start and has 45 Ks in those starts. He can be prone to walk some hitters, but he seems to be able to limit damage, probably because of his strikeout ability. 

[augolf1716 21,101]

UCF had a great turnaround season from last place in their conference to first. They will be a tough win

[SCTiger2011 1,277]

Not going to hijack this thread and this request isn't big enough to start a new one, but anyone familiar with Tallahassee got any recommendations for bars/restaurants/things to do this weekend?  I'm headed down with three buddies and two girlfriends (all ages 24-26) who've enjoyed two national championship trips, one Sugar Bowl trip, and one WCWS trip together over the years, but we've never ventured to Tallahassee.  None of us are Florida born or bred so we're going in blind.  Any suggestions would be appreciated!  War Eagle!

[augolf1716 21,101]

17 hours ago, SCTiger2011 said:

Not going to hijack this thread and this request isn't big enough to start a new one, but anyone familiar with Tallahassee got any recommendations for bars/restaurants/things to do this weekend?  I'm headed down with three buddies and two girlfriends (all ages 24-26) who've enjoyed two national championship trips, one Sugar Bowl trip, and one WCWS trip together over the years, but we've never ventured to Tallahassee.  None of us are Florida born or bred so we're going in blind.  Any suggestions would be appreciated!  War Eagle!

I will post it as a thread so you get more exposure. Hell its so slow now I don't see a big deal. Good luck on your trip and I expect you/buddies and the two girls to bring us a regional winner.

[SCTiger2011 1,277]

2 hours ago, augolf1716 said:

I will post it as a thread so you get more exposure. Hell its so slow now I don't see a big deal. Good luck on your trip and I expect you/buddies and the two girls to bring us a regional winner.

'Preciate it, Golf! A drink (or twelve) in your honor this weekend!

[ellitor 33,077]

17 minutes ago, SCTiger2011 said:

'Preciate it, Golf! A drink (or twelve) in your honor this weekend!

Meh. That's an afternoon cool down for him.

[augolf1716 21,101]

4 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Meh. That's an afternoon cool down for him.

just depends

[boomstick 1,315]

On May 29, 2017 at 4:51 PM, PowerOfDixieland said:

Damn fine preview 'brotha, very nice job.

Assuming UCF starts AAC co-pitcher of the year Robby Howell (10-0, 3.28 ERA) we will see a ton of sliders away to right handers  and change-ups down and in.  Tiger hitters have shown an ability to be patient, assume they will hang out over the plate looking for the off-speed and adjust since Howell does not have an over powering fastball (upper 80's).  

I think Howell is the key to the game. I know that sounds obvious. I feel like we're going to get a predictable start out of Keegan, probably 6-7 innings. If Howell commands his FB well and gets ahead in counts, we're going to have a tough go of it. If he struggles with command, which he's done in the past, I think we're going to have success against him and probably run him early. 

[AU64 10,122]

On 5/30/2017 at 9:34 PM, boomstick said:

I think Howell is the key to the game. I know that sounds obvious. I feel like we're going to get a predictable start out of Keegan, probably 6-7 innings. If Howell commands his FB well and gets ahead in counts, we're going to have a tough go of it. If he struggles with command, which he's done in the past, I think we're going to have success against him and probably run him early. 

 Boy, I sure hope you are right. My recollection is that many of our batters can't lay off of a good breaking ball that is low or into the dirt. They definitely will need patience against this guy. 

[boomstick 1,315]

42 minutes ago, AU64 said:

 Boy, I sure hope you are right. My recollection is that many of our batters can't lay off of a good breaking ball that is low or into the dirt. They definitely will need patience against this guy. 

IMO it's all about Howell's fastball. He's not going to overpower us with it. If he spots it and commands it all day, we're going to have a big battle. If he struggles with it, we can be more selective and force him to throw it to us. 

[AU64 10,122]

Just now, boomstick said:

IMO it's all about Howell's fastball. He's not going to overpower us with it. If he spots it and commands it all day, we're going to have a big battle. If he struggles with it, we can be more selective and force him to throw it to us. 

Agree..that's the issue...lay off the junk and work on the FB...the problem this season has been  ..we help the pitcher by going after the "balls". Would be nice if our guys can make him throw the FB when he needs a strike.   And guess it could be a factor as to how the umps define the strike zone today.   Keegan likes that low and away stuff too. 

  His 3.0+ ERA is not that sterling so looks like he can be scored on.

[Mikey 16,565]

Any news about TV coverage?

[ellitor 33,077]

23 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Any news about TV coverage?

11 AM CT on ESPN2.

[boomstick 1,315]

7 hours ago, AU64 said:

Agree..that's the issue...lay off the junk and work on the FB...the problem this season has been  ..we help the pitcher by going after the "balls". Would be nice if our guys can make him throw the FB when he needs a strike.   And guess it could be a factor as to how the umps define the strike zone today.   Keegan likes that low and away stuff too. 

  His 3.0+ ERA is not that sterling so looks like he can be scored on.

Yeah, we chase a lot of bad pitches, but many times that's when the pitcher is ahead in the count. His 10-0 record is pretty impressive. So I don't think it will be easy. One of his biggest weaknesses is his control. He's allowed 26 of this 36 walks in his last 8 outings. He averaged just over 3 BB/game against conference opponents. If his control is spotty, we're a patient enough hitting team to take those walks and make them count.

[AUTigersfan89 256]

It's gameday!

Who do you think we pitch today? We should go with out #1 guy as nothing in guaranteed, so I think Mize should take the mound.

[ellitor 33,077]

8 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

It's gameday!

Who do you think we pitch today? We should go with out #1 guy as nothing in guaranteed, so I think Mize should take the mound.

Butch said the day Regionals were announced Keegan & Casey were going games 1 & 2 respectively.

[WDEKC 187]

18 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

It's gameday!

Who do you think we pitch today? We should go with out #1 guy as nothing in guaranteed, so I think Mize should take the mound.

Yes most teams will pitch their #1 in the first game of regionals. Even though Mize has the more dominating stuff, Butch has considered Keegan the "#1" all year and that won't change this weekend.

[AUTigersfan89 256]

Wasn't Mize the #1 for a good part of the year? Why did Butch make the change? He pitched day 1 against Tennessee right?

[ellitor 33,077]

6 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

Wasn't Mize the #1 for a good part of the year? Why did Butch make the change? He pitched day 1 against Tennessee right?

1. Only because of the time Keegan had soreness in his arm. 2. Because of the subequent arm issues Casey had after Keegan. 3. Yes, because Keegan was coming off his arm soreness issues.

Personally I like it this way. If we can beat UCF with Keegan I would rather Casey pitch against likely FSU tomorrow.

[WDEKC 187]

29 minutes ago, AUTigersfan89 said:

Wasn't Mize the #1 for a good part of the year? Why did Butch make the change? He pitched day 1 against Tennessee right?

As ellitor mentioned there was a decent amount of movement in the rotation due to the arm issues and rest weeks throughout the season. When both have been healthy (and at least as close to 100% as possible) Keegan has pitched the 1st games. I can understand this because he's normally more of a command pitcher and is also normally more efficient (although Mize has had some pretty efficient games as well this year).

[mustache eagle 2,397]

Did mize and Keegan ever pitch a weekend where both had their dominant stuff?  Keegan was dominant at the beginning then tapered off (was still good) when his arm issues surfaced.  Mize was arguably better than Keegan mid-season.  He was very good at the beginning of year but ramped it up about when Keegan started suffering.

Daniel had a couple of dominant games mixed in.

[ellitor 33,077]

1 hour ago, mustache eagle said:

Did mize and Keegan ever pitch a weekend where both had their dominant stuff?

Tennessee was the closest thing I found.

Casey went 6 innings with 3 hits, no runs walks or extra base hits, 7 Ks, 82 pitches
Keegan went 6 innings giving up 7 hits, 1 run, 5 Ks, no walks, 1 double, 91 pitches.