Tallahassee Regional: AU vs Tennessee Tech Preview

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

3 seed Auburn (36-24, 16-14 SEC) beat 2 seed UCF yesterday by a score of 7-4. Keegan Thompson was dominant, giving up on 2 runs through 8 innings on 4 hits. The Tigers also swung the bats well, banging out 13 hits and 7 runs, a couple of times racking up RBIs on 2 out at-bats. Will Holland delivered the big blow with a 3 run home run to left-center field in the top of the eighth. 

4 seeded Tennessee Tech could probably be considered to be the second biggest upset of the tournament so far, beating 1 seed Florida state 3-1 last night, behind a great pitching performance by their starter and #1 reliever. The Tigers, however, did not hit any home runs, an oddity for them, as they lead the nation in this category. That sets up the winners bracket matchup between Auburn and Tennessee Tech tonight. The Tigers won the coin flip last night, so they will be the home team in today's matchup. Let's look at a few comparisons between these two teams. 

 

General Scouting Report: 

 Tennessee Tech is (41-19) on the year. They play in the Ohio Valley Conference and posted a 23-7 conference record this season. Their claims to fame actually portray TTU as a bit unproven: a win 5-2 win @ Vanderbilt; a win at Bethune-Cookman, who is in the tournament this year; and, of course, a win over 1 seed Florida State in the Tallahassee Regional last night. Certainly they have the talent to compete, but can the keep it up? Another tidbit about TTU is that they lead the country in home runs with 97!!! 

OFFENSIVE:

1.) Tennessee Tech has scored 498 runs in the 60 games they've played this year, scoring 8.3 runs per game. Auburn has scored 351 runs in 60 games played, averaging 5.8 runs per game. Auburn has played against SEC pitching all year, but 8.3 runs per game leads the country, and Tennessee Tech has quite the offense. ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE TECH.

2.) Tennessee Tech has an on base percentage of .391, while Auburn has an OBP of .371. Again, with Auburn in the SEC, I see this as a fairly even statistical category. Both teams get on base very well compared to their competition. ADVANTAGE: NULL.

3.) Tennessee Tech has banged out a whopping 251 extra base hits on the season, but has needed 2209 at-bats to do so. This means that TTU, in any given at bat, has about an 11% chance to hit an extra base hit. Auburn only has 162 extra base hits, but has only needed 2019 at-bats, meaning Tennessee Tech has almost 200 more at bats than Auburn on the season! These numbers mean Auburn is only about 8% likely to score an extra base hit. Tennessee Tech is certainly a power hitting team, but I would expect those numbers to go down against SEC pitching and defense. This is interesting since TTU is one of the best power hitting teams in the country, but looking at the numbers and the conference difference, I don't see a big difference here. ADVANTAGE: NULL.

OVERALL OFFENSIVE ADVANTAGE: Tennessee Tech. They are very good at the plate, and have the numbers to prove it. I do think, however, Auburn's offense can compete with their offense a bit more than the general conception may be. In their two games against SEC competition this year, TTU scored a total of 5 runs, only 2.5 runs per game. While that is not a respectable sample size, it makes me wonder how they would fare week in and week out in the SEC. 

 

PITCHING/DEFENSE:

1.) Most likely, Auburn and Tennessee Tech will not throw the two pitchers they used yesterday, so for this stat, we will throw out that information about the team. To use each team's starting pitcher, and their best 2 available relievers, we will compare some metrics. Auburn's top 3 available pitchers, Mize, Coker, and Klobosits, are averaging an ERA of 3.58. Tech's top 3 available pitchers include Usher, King, and Roberts who average an ERA of 3.71. ADVANTAGE: AUBURN.

2.) Auburn and Tennessee Tech both field at a 0.975 clip. Auburn has made 56 errors on the season (0.933 errors per game), while Tennessee Tech has made 55 errors (0.917 errors per game). Both teams play pretty good defense. ADVANTAGE: NULL.

3.) Tennessee Tech has given up 365 runs in their 60 games played (6.08 runs per game).  Auburn has given up 286 runs also in 60 games played (4.77 runs per game). ADVANTAGE: AUBURN.

OVERALL DEFENSIVE ADVANTAGE: Auburn. The Tigers are just as good in the field as Tennessee Tech and have statistically performed even better than TTU in the SEC, a much tougher conference than the OVC. 

 

OVERALL ADVANTAGE: Slight edge to Auburn. Pitching and Defense will win championships, and TTU has produced their offensive numbers in a lesser conference. Tech is going to come in with momentum out of their ears, but if Casey Mize pitches how we know he can, Auburn may have a small advantage. This would've been a tough one no matter who we were playing, so we'll have to come out like a team on a mission, but look for the Auburn Tigers to win with pitching and defense tonight! 

WAR EAGLE! Go get em boys!! 

 

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks for the analysis...TTU is an interesting team but I'm of the general view that if AU were to lose this game it would be huge upset and a huge disappointment.   The comparison of stats might indicate otherwise, but if one were to consider the level of competition there is no way that an 93RPI  TTU has an advantage over AU in any aspect of the game.   JMO.

That win over FSU was a fluke and in my view, the blame goes to the FSU coach for not having the team ready.  I'm betting that FSU will be ready to play from this point on and AU will see them over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

[Mikey 16,576]

2 hours ago, AU64 said:

Thanks for the analysis...TTU is an interesting team but I'm of the general view that if AU were to lose this game it would be huge upset and a huge disappointment.   The comparison of stats might indicate otherwise, but if one were to consider the level of competition there is no way that an 93RPI  TTU has an advantage over AU in any aspect of the game.   JMO.

That win over FSU was a fluke and in my view, the blame goes to the FSU coach for not having the team ready.  I'm betting that FSU will be ready to play from this point on and AU will see them over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

We agree on Tenn Tech. Now, from this point, we can win this tournament with two more wins, one over Tenn. Tech and let's assume one over FSU. Which team do you want your best available pitcher going against? Keep in mind, according to today's announcers, the top seed has come back from a first-game loss to win the regional 30% of the time. FSU is a long way from dead. Without knowing our scouting reports and sitting in on our coach's meetings, I'd save Mize for FSU.

I was extensively involved with baseball for over 30years. Roughly 25 of those years were at various levels where tournament play was involved. I have seen tournaments won by saving pitching back and seen games lost by saving pitching. Without exception, the games lost because of holding top pitching back were in cases of insufficient scouting. I saw someone hold back pitching in the opening round on a team that eventually won the state championship. The pitching was held back because that team came from a small school, and the decision backfired. If you don't know your opponent, pitch your best available. If you do know the other teams involved, use some common sense.

One final thought: WW2 German Field Marshall Rommel said that with normal reconnaissance he could always tell the rank of the officer he was opposing in the field. The greater % of the opponents forces that were held in reserve, the higher the rank of his opponent.

[AU64 10,122]

Playing not to lose....or playing to win....? I guess however if Mize had not been so questionable the last month I might feel better about saving him. I am still playing one game at a time and trying to win the game we are playing. 

[ellitor 33,082]

1 minute ago, AU64 said:

Playing not to lose

Means playing timidly & concerning the rest of your post, not piching Casey.

1 minute ago, AU64 said:

or playing to win....?

Means playing assertively with confidence. Concerning the rest of the post it means pitching Casey if he is good to go.

[Mikey 16,576]

Just now, ellitor said:

Means playing timidly & concerning the rest of your post, not piching Casey.

Means playing assertively with confidence. Concerning the rest of the post it means pitching Casey if he is good to go.

Playing to win the tournament means using your best pitching against your strongest opponent. Playing not to lose means using your top pitching against a team you can beat 10-2 anyway. If our mid-week starters can't win mid-week games, how are they going to beat FSU?

[ellitor 33,082]

Could be some heavy rain in the forecast tonight.

[Mikey 16,576]

Just now, ellitor said:

Could be some heavy rain in the forecast tonight.

I don't see how that helps us unless it rains until Keegan is ready to go again. Whoever we pitch tonight, he'll have plenty of rest. If we can win, tomorrow we could be running into tired opposing pitchers. I wouldn't like to see them get an extra day.

[AU64 10,122]

5 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I don't see how that helps us unless it rains until Keegan is ready to go again. Whoever we pitch tonight, he'll have plenty of rest. If we can win, tomorrow we could be running into tired opposing pitchers. I wouldn't like to see them get an extra day.

yep...bring 'em on....can't see any benefit of a delay for AU.

[ellitor 33,082]

Just now, Mikey said:

Playing to win the tournament means using your best pitching against your strongest opponent. Playing not to lose means using your top pitching against a team you can beat 10-2 anyway. If our mid-week starters can't win mid-week games, how are they going to beat FSU?

FSU will be using their mid week starters too if they get to us. And if the schedule doesn't change FSU will have to play & win 2 games tomorrow while we only have to play & win 1 if we win tonight. Combine that with the fact we have an 82% chance to win the Region if we win tonight means we go ahead & pich Casey tonight like Butch has planned to do all along including after last night knowing FSU lost. It's simple probability & logic. Also with Davis Daniel being hot & cold like he is no point in risking Tenn Tech's great offense bloodying him tonight like Arky did last week & putting us in the loser's bracket.

[ellitor 33,082]

7 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I don't see how that helps us unless it rains until Keegan is ready to go again. Whoever we pitch tonight, he'll have plenty of rest. If we can win, tomorrow we could be running into tired opposing pitchers. I wouldn't like to see them get an extra day.

Didn't say or imply it helps us at all tonight. I was just giving a weather update. In fact it hurts us if we can't get the game in tonight & win IMO. FSU would then be as fresh as us if we have to play 2 Monday.

[ellitor 33,082]

5 minutes ago, AU64 said:

yep...bring 'em on....can't see any benefit of a delay for AU.

Again. I didn't say nor imply there was a benefit. Not sure how y'all are getting a lot more out of a post than is actually stated in the post. If I were to use it as stating or implying a benefit I would have quoted another poster's reply to make it clear that my post was countering the other post.

[AU64 10,122]

1 minute ago, ellitor said:

Again. I didn't say nor imply there was a benefit. Not sure how y'all are getting a lot more out of a post than is actually stated in the post. If I were to use it as stating or implying a benefit I would have quoted another poster's reply to make it clear that my post was countering the other post.

I was just making an observation on Mikey's comment...that rain would not help us....don't think you or anyone implied otherwise...just some comments on what might happen if the rain did show up....and looks like everyone agrees that rain would benefit FSU but not AU.

[ellitor 33,082]

Anyway...So here's an update from AU Baseball

Good afternoon from Tallahassee - lots of rain in the last 45 minutes or so, but still on for 6 pm CT first pitch. #WarEagle pic.twitter.com/ocH6rZbe2A

— Auburn Baseball (@AuburnBaseball) June 3, 2017

[AU64 10,122]

Took a look at the weather Channel forecast and it looks like some rain about the time of the scheduled start but less probability there after . Based on what it shows now, they start might be delayed but the game should be played. 

[Mikey 16,576]

16 hours ago, ellitor said:

FSU will be using their mid week starters too if they get to us. And if the schedule doesn't change FSU will have to play & win 2 games tomorrow while we only have to play & win 1 if we win tonight. Combine that with the fact we have an 82% chance to win the Region if we win tonight means we go ahead & pich Casey tonight like Butch has planned to do all along including after last night knowing FSU lost. It's simple probability & logic. Also with Davis Daniel being hot & cold like he is no point in risking Tenn Tech's great offense bloodying him tonight like Arky did last week & putting us in the loser's bracket.

Apparently our scouting evaluations indicated to our coaches that we'd want to use Mize against Tenn Tech and that proved accurate. They are a tough out. The numbers game would have had little to nothing to do with our decision about who to start because we had scouting.

We have an 82% chance of winning this thing and FSU has a 30% chance? I wasn't a math major but we learned enough math on Ag. Hill to know that's not possible. (In case you missed it, the announcers on the early TV game yesterday stated that #1 seeds that lose their opening game still win the regional 30% of the time.)

As to mid-week starters vs. mid-week starters I know nothing about FSU's staff depth but I know our guys have been inconsistent. Their coach has been there 36 years and they have a storied program. Unless he's like me and getting to where he's losing it mentally they should be in great shape as far as backup pitching goes. I'll like our chances better if Tenn tech wins today's early game. Their depth at pitcher shouldn't be anything like FSU's.

I've seen a lot of cases when the four-team double elimination gets to this point. When the loser's bracket team wins the first game, the momentum is all with them.

Right now, I'll put our chances at 50/50. Historic percentages don't matter that much when one is evaluating a specific situation.