Stidham's odds of winning Heisman

[aubiefifty 16,699]

Las Vegas casino increases Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham's odds of winning Heisman Trophy

Bettors at one Las Vegas casino clearly have a favorable opinion of Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham.

As of Monday, the Westgate casino sportsbook lists Stidham with 20-to-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy. He is the only one of 42 players listed to see his odds improve since April 9, the day after Stidham was Auburn's Offensive MVP on A-Day, when he was listed at 50-to-1.

Stidham is tied with seven other players, including Alabama's Jalen Hurts and Bo Scarbrough and LSU's Derrius Guice, for the eighth-best odds.

The seven players with the best odds are all quarterbacks.

Southern Cal's Sam Darnold, who attended last month's QB Summit with Stidham and others, is the favorite at 5-to-1. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield (8-to-1), Louisville's Lamar Jackson (8-to-1), Ohio State's J.T. Barrett (10-to-1), Washington's Jake Browning (12-to-1), Florida State's Deondre Francois (12-to-1) and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph (15-to-1) are second through seventh, respectively.

There was no change in the odds for Auburn running back Kamryn Pettway, who remains listed at 30-to-1.

The Bovada online sportsbook does not list Stidham, but has Pettway at 33-to-1.

 

 

 

 

[Tiger 8,817]

Why can't I bet on him on bovada??? He's not even an option on there

[Win4AU 4,052]

If he's even close to winning then Auburn is a playoff team.  I'd imagine he'd need over 3000 yards passing and over 40 tds to sniff the heisman race

[Tigerbelle 5,299]

I hate this premature Heisman hype.....

[gr82be 14,401]

I could be wrong but if everything went by design for the offense this season and Auburn is a contender then both Stidham and Pettway would logically be Heisman contenders. That would seem to mean that they would split votes from the region and cost both of them a real shot. The other option is that if KJ stays healthy I guess Pettway's carries would be fewer anyway so it could be a moot point. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

2 hours ago, gr82be said:

I could be wrong but if everything went by design for the offense this season and Auburn is a contender then both Stidham and Pettway would logically be Heisman contenders. That would seem to mean that they would split votes from the region and cost both of them a real shot. The other option is that if KJ stays healthy I guess Pettway's carries would be fewer anyway so it could be a moot point. 

I have a feeling the change in offensive style is going to keep Kam out of the Heisman conversation.  He'll still be a beast, but he won't be getting carries like he did, last year.  It's also getting a lot harder for a running back to stay in the Heisman conversation.

[McLoofus 35,182]

4 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I have a feeling the change in offensive style is going to keep Kam out of the Heisman conversation.  He'll still be a beast, but he won't be getting carries like he did, last year.  It's also getting a lot harder for a running back to stay in the Heisman conversation.

We've been agreeing way too much lately, so allow me to retort 

No, seriously, Kam didn't record a stat in 4 regular season games last year, so if we were to very conservatively balance out his carries over a full regular season- let's say 17- he'd have 204 carries. That's actually 19 more than he had in the regular season last year and only 5 less than he had including the bowl game last year. 

Now, if we bump that up to 20 carries a game, which I think is a very realistic goal, he's looking at 240 carries in the regular season which, at his 5.9 YPC last year, would yield 1,416 yards. 

Sadly, those still probably aren't Heisman numbers for an RB even if we allowed for additional postseason stats- unless we played a full 3 additional games- so your point still stands. Henry went for 2 large in 2015. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

8 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

We've been agreeing way too much lately, so allow me to retort 

No, seriously, Kam didn't record a stat in 4 regular season games last year, so if we were to very conservatively balance out his carries over a full regular season- let's say 17- he'd have 204 carries. That's actually 19 more than he had in the regular season last year and only 5 less than he had including the bowl game last year. 

Now, if we bump that up to 20 carries a game, which I think is a very realistic goal, he's looking at 240 carries in the regular season which, at his 5.9 YPC last year, would yield 1,416 yards. 

Sadly, those still probably aren't Heisman numbers for an RB even if we allowed for additional postseason stats- unless we played a full 3 additional games- so your point still stands. Henry went for 2 large in 2015. 

Great, well thought out retort just to agree with me again... LOL

One thing you can probably include that will hurt his numbers, however, is that the balancing of his carries won't be with another back, but with a QB who is gaining large chunks of yardage with each throw, minimizing the amount of the field that Kam will have left to run on.

But as we both agree... even if he breaks 1500 yards, that will likely only have him in the "occasionally mentioned" part of the Heisman discussion. Mayfield, Jackson, Barrett, and Francois are going to get most of the love this year.

[milehighfan 1,239]

Hopefully, JS can make a better showing than JJ did a couple of years ago.

[WarEagleFromHoover 70]

Sigh can we see him play a game before we start heisman talk ?

[abw0004 10,104]

15 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

I have a feeling the change in offensive style is going to keep Kam out of the Heisman conversation.  He'll still be a beast, but he won't be getting carries like he did, last year.  It's also getting a lot harder for a running back to stay in the Heisman conversation.

I actually think Stidham throwing more and gaining more yards for us through the air will actually increase our rushing yards this year.  With Stidham's accuracy, and our receiver corps catching the ball, defenses will have to pay more attention to the air, opening up lanes for KP.  Last year KP was a beast with defenses loading up the box and having to run through 2-3 defenders each run.  This time around he will either have a clear lane, or one defender to take care of.  This should also help keep KJ healthier.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 hour ago, abw0004 said:

I actually think Stidham throwing more and gaining more yards for us through the air will actually increase our rushing yards this year.  With Stidham's accuracy, and our receiver corps catching the ball, defenses will have to pay more attention to the air, opening up lanes for KP.  Last year KP was a beast with defenses loading up the box and having to run through 2-3 defenders each run.  This time around he will either have a clear lane, or one defender to take care of.  This should also help keep KJ healthier.

I think you are right that it will open up some lanes (not that Kam needed lanes a lot of the time last year), but there are only so many yards you can gain per game, in the allotted time. If you are picking them up in big chunks through the air, there are fewer left to pick up on the ground. Of course, we could break YPG records this year, but with a newly gelling O-Line, I don't see that happening. 

Another thing to keep in mind... last year only 5 teams had more rushing yards per game than us... and all 5 of those teams play in leagues that have FAR from the best defenses.

[Tiger 8,817]

We are discounting that our OL is probably not going to be as good as they were last season. That will affect our rush numbers IMO

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

18 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

I have a feeling the change in offensive style is going to keep Kam out of the Heisman conversation.  He'll still be a beast, but he won't be getting carries like he did, last year.  It's also getting a lot harder for a running back to stay in the Heisman conversation.

One can only hope. 

[abw0004 10,104]

35 minutes ago, Tiger said:

We are discounting that our OL is probably not going to be as good as they were last season. That will affect our rush numbers IMO

This could be true, but if you remember this time last year we were saying the same exact thing.  Everyone thought Leff would be terrible, and that we did not have a capable center.  Good thing for us this year is that our first game we can tweak things better than last year when we opened with Clemson.  I feel relatively confident with our line currently, and that is before I have seen Calvin Ashley practice with the squad.  Worst case, we bring in our RB to pass protect, or kick him out on a wheel route for a quick pass.

[Tiger 8,817]

2 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

This could be true, but if you remember this time last year we were saying the same exact thing.  Everyone thought Leff would be terrible, and that we did not have a capable center.  Good thing for us this year is that our first game we can tweak things better than last year when we opened with Clemson.  I feel relatively confident with our line currently, and that is before I have seen Calvin Ashley practice with the squad.  Worst case, we bring in our RB to pass protect, or kick him out on a wheel route for a quick pass.

I don't like the idea of an 18 year old starting at LT for us. That rarely yields good results. But you're right. Last year we felt like we had an underwhelming line but it also took an injury for us to realize our best 5. Yikes.

[SaltyTiger 7,763]

19 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

I have a feeling the change in offensive style is going to keep Kam out of the Heisman conversation.  He'll still be a beast, but he won't be getting carries like he did, last year.  It's also getting a lot harder for a running back to stay in the Heisman conversation.

I think this style of offense will allow him to average about 37 yards per carry this year. "ain't nobody wanna tackle me"

[triangletiger 1,599]

19 hours ago, McLoofus said:

We've been agreeing way too much lately, so allow me to retort 

No, seriously, Kam didn't record a stat in 4 regular season games last year, so if we were to very conservatively balance out his carries over a full regular season- let's say 17- he'd have 204 carries. That's actually 19 more than he had in the regular season last year and only 5 less than he had including the bowl game last year. 

Now, if we bump that up to 20 carries a game, which I think is a very realistic goal, he's looking at 240 carries in the regular season which, at his 5.9 YPC last year, would yield 1,416 yards. 

Sadly, those still probably aren't Heisman numbers for an RB even if we allowed for additional postseason stats- unless we played a full 3 additional games- so your point still stands. Henry went for 2 large in 2015. 

Heisman voting is finalized weekend after conference championship games, so there is only one possible additional game to add stats.

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Seems a bit early to start talking about who's the frount runner to win the Heisman.

[wdefromtx 3,159]

At this point, I just want our QB to stay healthy all season.

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

2 hours ago, auburn4ever said:

Seems a bit early to start talking about who's the frount runner to win the Heisman.

Cannot disagree w./ that one.

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

1 hour ago, wdefromtx said:

At this point, I just want our QB to stay healthy all season.

Wouldn't be a bad thing to have our QBs stay healthy all season. 

 

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

Where's the pre 2015 Jeremy Johnson thread about his Heisman odds? 

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Right now, I just want him to show the AU family he can throw the ball deep to his WR's and not to the other teams DB's.

[WFE12 9,191]

7 hours ago, wdefromtx said:

At this point, I just want our QB to stay healthy all season.

Amen to that!