Auburn to be tested on the road in Baton Rouge

[StatTiger 3,188]

Here are some statistical keys to watch for Saturday in Baton Rouge:

• During three of LSU's five FBS games, they managed to hold their opponent to 11 possessions or less. My scoring projection is based on Auburn scoring five times and LSU scoring three times during the game.
   
• If Auburn scores five times, we are looking at 15-35 points. If LSU scores three times, we are looking at 9 to 21 points. This is why this game could be a tight game or a possible dominating performance by the Auburn Tigers.
   
• Keeping the game under 12 possessions will be the goal for the LSU offense, which is why I believe the most important statistic this week is the first team to 40+ rush attempts. Gus Malzahn's Auburn Tigers are 20-6 in conference play when Auburn has 45 or more rush attempts and 5-9 when the opponent rushes 40 times or more.
   
• Auburn against FBS competition is scoring on 48 percent of their possessions. If LSU can control the clock, they can limit the visiting Tigers to 10 possessions or less. Of Auburn's scoring percentage thus far, it includes a touchdown on 33 percent of their possessions. The fewer possessions by Auburn, the increased probability LSU will hold Auburn under 30 points.
   
• LSU against FBS competition is scoring 30 percent of the time with 25 percent being touchdowns.
   
• During Auburn's five FBS games, the Tigers have reached the red zone on 30 percent of their possessions. Upon reaching the red zone, Auburn has scored every time, including 75 percent being touchdowns. To maximize their scoring, Auburn will either need to generate touchdown plays outside the red zone or be extremely efficient once inside the red zone.
   
• Through six games, 72 percent of Auburn's touchdowns have been scored inside the red zone. Unless the trends change, this places even more importance on red zone efficiency this week. Auburn does enter the game, No. 13 nationally in TD percentage inside the red zone during conference play.
   
• LSU will be the second best defense Auburn has faced up to this point, which is why I projected five scoring drives but three of them being field goal possessions. I will admit I am leaning on the conservative side but Auburn hasn't been very successful on offense in Baton Rouge in the past.
   
• Protecting the football is always important but will be more so this Saturday. Auburn under Gus Malzahn is 8-1 in conference play with ZERO turnovers and 17-7 with 1 turnover or less. Overall all, Auburn is 18-6 in conference play when they don't lose the turnover battle and 12-0 when they WIN the turnover battle.
   

PREDICTION: Auburn 23 LSU 13
 

War Eagle!

[JMassie11 1,610]

Love the numbers as always I just honestly see this being a 35-10 type of ball game barring significant injuries. I just think we have too much on offense and they won't be moving the ball much

[StatTiger 3,188]

5 minutes ago, JMassie11 said:

Love the numbers as always I just honestly see this being a 35-10 type of ball game barring significant injuries. I just think we have too much on offense and they won't be moving the ball much

"If Auburn scores five times, we are looking at 15-35 points. If LSU scores three times, we are looking at 9 to 21 points. This is why this game could be a tight game or a possible dominating performance by the Auburn Tigers."

[doc4aday 1,887]

You make a lot of sense Stat. However, my gut tells me we will roll big time being that it is a day game and if we jump out quick with a 17 or better point lead, I think Lsu loses all focus and things could get real ugly for Coach O.  I like our chances much better being a day game in that the coonasses do not get loud until the sun has set past 8 pm.

I am putting an ultra bad luck Gri-Gri or however it is spelled on Lsu being that it is Friday 13th and October too boot!  Seriously folks I like our chances better than they have been in a while in BR.

[AUBwins 10,074]

So critical that we do not get in that 2-3 score deficit (voodoo!) early in the game.

[Eagle-1 3,821]

Going to be a big game for both teams for sure. Limit the LSU run game, and I like our chances. Am really interested to see if our O can perform well against what should be a pretty good defense. I expect to get LSU's best effort of the year. They are going to be trying to salvage their season with this game. 

[WFE12 9,191]

Also: Auburn hasn’t scored a touchdown in the first half at LSU since 2007.

Auburn has been out-scored 83-3 in the first half of the last four games at LSU — all with Malzahn as a coordinator or head coach.

[AU Tytrocious 24]

Just now, WFE12 said:

Also: Auburn hasn’t scored a touchdown in the first half at LSU since 2007.

Auburn has been out-scored 83-3 in the first half of the last four games at LSU — all with Malzahn as a coordinator or head coach.

That's just bonkers. 

[WFE12 9,191]

1 minute ago, AU Tytrocious said:

That's just bonkers. 

Smh ikr...

[aufaninpa 7]

Hope they don't get turnover happy like they did against Mercer. You have to make Etling beat you instead of the running game. He is only really good when he has a good running game to complement him. Would love to see an early special teams touchdown from the good guys to quiet that crowd down.

[weagl1 1,782]

Turnovers will be the key as is usual in SEC road games among the top teams. I like our chances unless the turnover bug bites again.  My other concern would be if we have to move Golson off that left tackle spot. I don't think Tega will be much of a match against Key coming off the edge. And I would like it better if Tre  Williams is able to play.  

[gravejd 3,270]

2 hours ago, StatTiger said:

"If Auburn scores five times, we are looking at 15-35 points. If LSU scores three times, we are looking at 9 to 21 points. This is why this game could be a tight game or a possible dominating performance by the Auburn Tigers."

I think he was referring to your prediction of a 23 - 13 score. The above statement gives leeway for it being anything from a AU loss of 6 points to a AU blowout of 26 points. Might as well say anything can happen lol. 

I personally think we'll shut down the run game and it will be a long day for LSU offense. When they aren't able to control the clock our O will get us enough scores to win. I think i predicted something like 34-13 in prediction thread. I'm still feeling pretty good about that

[WDG 109]

I am nervous as hell Th OL has to protect the QB or we could be looking at a repeat of Clemson failure War Eagle go Tigers

[AU64 10,122]

48 minutes ago, WDG said:

I am nervous as hell Th OL has to protect the QB or we could be looking at a repeat of Clemson failure War Eagle go Tigers

OL has come a long way since Clemson....and so has JS.....he won't just stand there and take the sacks.

[McLoofus 35,182]

8 minutes ago, AU64 said:

OL has come a long way since Clemson....and so has JS.....he won't just stand there and take the sacks.

Also, Clemson has the best DL in the country. (I'll give their upperclassmen the nod over our underclassmen.) Well ahead of LSU's, particularly with Key at less than 100%.

I wonder if Tega's athleticism could put us in a situation where he loses a couple downs based on inexperience but is otherwise better equipped to keep a stud rusher in check. A boy can dream...

 

[BJCrawford 1,568]

I am very nervous as well. What I don’t like about this year is how much every game means. The “hot seat” pendulum swings so severely. (And this is not to prompt a conversation of whether it should or shouldn’t). I would so like stability in our program so the consequences are not so extreme relative to every game.  THAT, in and of itself, makes me a nervous wreck!  Just win baby !! 

[milehighfan 1,240]

25 minutes ago, AU64 said:

OL has come a long way since Clemson....and so has JS.....he won't just stand there and take the sacks.

If he just stands there he will not only take sacks but a beating as well.

[AU64 10,122]

48 minutes ago, milehighfan said:

If he just stands there he will not only take sacks but a beating as well.

I guess we will know tomorrow night but I don't expect him to stand there and get sacked but I don't expect him to be running for his life either.  Could be wrong of course but this LSU does not seem to be the physical powerhouse of years gone by.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

3 hours ago, aufaninpa said:

Hope they don't get turnover happy like they did against Mercer. You have to make Etling beat you instead of the running game. He is only really good when he has a good running game to complement him. Would love to see an early special teams touchdown from the good guys to quiet that crowd down.

Their offensive line is as thin as a cheap shirt.  Looks like they will have to start the three freshmen due to injuries.  Guice is also not healthy either.  I see Steele forcing Matt Canada to put the game on Etling and that is not something that will work out well for them.  I believe our defense gives up less than 10 points this weekend, gets back in the 5+ sacks range and allows significantly less than 100 yards rushing. 

Their defensive front is susceptible to being pushed around...looking for this to be the game we see our O line establish themselves and we go for over 300 on the ground.  This has the makings to be a historic loss for LSU in Death Valley.  45-9 good guys.

[aubaseball 2,594]

I feel just the opposite.   I think it will be close and a lot like last weeks Fla vs. LSU game.    They will run the speed sweeps until we stop it and play action off of them.   I hope the defense has been watching film.    I’m getting nightmares of Wisconsin running the same play that we couldn’t stop back in the bowl game a few years back.  

JS will need to come up big for AU this week 

[caleb1633 1,418]

Count me in the nervous as hell camp. I would be really surprised if this game isn't close in the 4th quarter and that LSU maybe even has a chance to win.

[Win4AU 4,052]

I’d feel a lot better if Clemson didn’t just go down to the Cuse.  Auburn obviously lost to Clemson and LSU won a close game against Syracuse.  One thing may not have anything to do with the other but id feel a lot better if Clemson had rocked them.

[caleb1633 1,418]

1 hour ago, Win4AU said:

I’d feel a lot better if Clemson didn’t just go down to the Cuse.  Auburn obviously lost to Clemson and LSU won a close game against Syracuse.  One thing may not have anything to do with the other but id feel a lot better if Clemson had rocked them.

That's just a Friday the 13th fluke. 99/100 times Clemson would beat Syracuse.

[milehighfan 1,240]

I would feel 10 times better if the OL was intact.  I sure don't want Wanogho to have to go up against LSU's pass rushers and in particular, Arden Key.

Edited October 14, 2017 by milehighfan

[boisnumber1 2,818]

Usually like Stats posts a lot, but this one just seems like throwing out a bunch of numbers that mean nothing. Jmo. Almost like saying if we score more points we will win. Call me a Debbie Downer I guess.