"This game will likely cost us our jobs"

[WarTim 3,456]

Ok guys. Shut it down and get back on topic please. 

[AURealist 2,185]

19 minutes ago, FullBloodedTiger91 said:

Associating lack of knowledge with a poster you call Nancy is either sexual discrimination or a you needed to boost your own masculinity. Atleast you are consistent! 

Freudian pop-psych/pseudo-psych/political-talking-point mashup?    

[AURealist 2,185]

24 minutes ago, WarTim said:

Ok guys. Shut it down and get back on topic please. 

OK. 

[Piketiger1990 173]

 I was lucky enough to get some field passes for the LSU game, wondered down the Auburn sideline and found Chip's (Gus') play calling sheet

[AURealist 2,185]

Football:

It's considered a bad idea to call running plays on 1st down 17 times in a row when you're ahead because you lose.

Overall, against LSU, Gus' 1st down play-calling R:P ratio was 0:2 when the score was even.

The 1st down R:P ratio was something like 18:1 when Auburn was ahead.  

It was ~0:8 when Auburn trailed.

Now, that 18:1. That's bad.  The other team can easily predict what you're going to do when you're behind. Is this something that Gus does all the time?  Maybe it's not just long strings of runs on first downs, but a ratio high enough when winning, the opposition will gamble to shut it down by filling the box with an extra man?

Question: What if you had a game against a team as good as ours  and the 1st down call Run:Pass ratios were the following?:

Even score R/P = 2:0

We're behind R/P = 5:5

We're ahead R/P = 19:3

Should we expect to win this game or to lose it?  Even if we're a mostly run team and can still sometimes make a first down? 

Does it hurt our chances of making 1st down yardage which, in turn, hurts the probability of converting on 3rd downs?  Or... does play-calling not really matter at all?

Anyone know if anything has been written on this subject?   Analyzing these types of ratios, etc?

[OnthePlains 2,014]

1 hour ago, Piketiger1990 said:

 I was lucky enough to get some field passes for the LSU game, wondered down the Auburn sideline and found Chip's (Gus') play calling sheet

Can't be ours, there is a tight end over the middle in that pass play. 

[beaumak 174]

 

2 hours ago, WarTim said:

Ok guys. Shut it down and get back on topic please. 

Nooooo. it was too damn funny to watch this conversation digress. Nancy.

note; i do feel a little bad for the irony in my post 

[ToomersStreet 795]

On 10/21/2017 at 10:13 AM, StatTiger said:

  The one area we all thought he would be the most consistent (offense) has ironically been his downfall as of late. The 2017 Auburn offense has shown how explosive it can be if given the opportunity to succeed. There is a level of "fear", I believe Malzahn operates under, which shows up in his schemes, play-calling and personnel usage. Until he overcomes this issue, his offense will not reach it's full potential.

Has Gus always  had this fear or is the fear  something that is  a result of the  season and Jeremy Johnsons implosion?

[gr82be 14,402]

14 minutes ago, ToomersStreet said:

Has Gus always  had this fear or is the fear  something that is  a result of the  season and Jeremy Johnsons implosion?

I know you're asking Stat but it sure seems like the worst of it is rooted in the performance of Jeremy Johnson. Jeremy seemed to lose his confidence and maybe that was him and maybe it was the coaches losing confidence in him. Either way when Gus lost confidence in him his coaching style seemed to change. It's a chain that needs to break because the fan base has, for the most part, lost confidence in Gus's ability to coach a smart game against a strong opponent. Jeremy doubting himself led to Gus doubting himself which led to fanbase doubting Gus. 

[keesler 5,924]

You invest thousand's in a hunting dog in training him to hunt, if he ends up gun-shy there isn't much you can do but cut him from your stock and start over with new dog. 

Gus is gun-shy, hard headed, egotistical, and he's hard wired in his stubbornness.

 

[ToomersStreet 795]

1 minute ago, keesler said:

You invest thousand's in a hunting dog in training him to hunt, if he ends up gun-shy there isn't much you can do but cut him from your stock and start over with new dog. 

Gus is gun-shy, hard headed, egotistical, and he's hard wired in his stubbornness.

 

You left  out paranoid and socially awkward.

[Tiger 8,818]

Coaching paranoid is bad, being socially awkward to the media isn't worth 2 turds though. He isn't awkward with the players and recruits. They all like him. I'm ready for Gus to go but let's criticize him for things that actually hold his coaching ability back. 

[BJCrawford 1,568]

I think Gus started coaching scared after his first true adversity (JJ). Before that he was always hugely successful on offense. May be hard to handle when one has always been seen as the best at something and then been criticized so harshly (deserved) for the same thing. It sounds like mcelwain was suffering the same 

[Tiger 8,818]

5 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

I think Gus started coaching scared after his first true adversity (JJ). Before that he was always hugely successful on offense. May be hard to handle when one has always been seen as the best at something and then been criticized so harshly (deserved) for the same thing. It sounds like mcelwain was suffering the same 

But that was basically 3 full seasons ago. Shouldn't take 900+ days to figure out how to adjust. At least not with the salary he's getting paid. 

[AUApostle 7,648]

2 hours ago, ToomersStreet said:

You left  out paranoid and socially awkward.

The areas where I can see social awkwardness affecting someone would be in their ability to build meaningful relationships and convince others to join their tribe.  He does fine recruiting b/c he doesn't have to take the lead; he can play off of the recruiter's established narrative. It probably hurts him with hiring and directing staff which may be why he chooses personalities he knows how to navigate around for his offense...guys that don't awkwardly challenge him and keep his world safe from what he perceives as unnecessary conflict.  If I had to guess, he listens to Hand too much and had an idealized view of Kodi Burns that wasn't exactly reality.  He hired Chip (who I think was his second choice) because he wouldn't have to exert too much effort getting him to buy-in to his system.  Chip could come in, understand Gus' big picture, and make a few necessary tweaks.  He'll never hire the disruptor to come and truly challenge him b/c he values his system and staff chemistry above all.  It's a gamble he's not willing, or capable, to take.

I slept at a Holiday Inn last night.  And by the way...I bet hiring Muschamp was scary as hell for him (he'd never admit that to anyone though).  His type A presence revealed a lot of weaknesses that was probably difficult for him acknowledge at the time.  In hindsight it helped him tremendously...imagine if our D still sucked.  I bet Steele's nature was a sweet sigh of relief.

[BJCrawford 1,568]

18 minutes ago, Tiger said:

But that was basically 3 full seasons ago. Shouldn't take 900+ days to figure out how to adjust. At least not with the salary he's getting paid. 

Point well taken, but his QB woes were still there the last two years. I heard a sports commentator give fisher a complete mulligan for his performance at FSU this year since he lost his QB. Actually heard the same thing relative to mcelwain. I know it’s part of the job to have sufficient fallback plans for a high paid coach,  but doesn’t change the fact he hasn’t had one til this year. Not providing excuses just giving an opinion as to why he appears to coach so cautiously these days.  Remember the 2010 iron bowl? Wonder if he would have gone for that fourth down today? Who knows?

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,287]

On 10/22/2017 at 3:03 PM, Piketiger1990 said:

 I was lucky enough to get some field passes for the LSU game, wondered down the Auburn sideline and found Chip's (Gus') play calling sheet

 

On 10/22/2017 at 4:40 PM, OnthePlains said:

Can't be ours, there is a tight end over the middle in that pass play. 

Technically that's the right tackle. Gus might actually do that.

[ToomersStreet 795]

21 minutes ago, AUDevil said:

The areas where I can see social awkwardness affecting someone would be in their ability to build meaningful relationships and convince others to join their tribe.  He does fine recruiting b/c he doesn't have to take the lead; he can play off of the recruiter's established narrative. It probably hurts him with hiring and directing staff which may be why he chooses personalities he knows how to navigate around for his offense...guys that don't awkwardly challenge him and keep his world safe from what he perceives as unnecessary conflict.  If I had to guess, he listens to Hand too much and had an idealized view of Kodi Burns that wasn't exactly reality.  He hired Chip (who I think was his second choice) because he wouldn't have to exert too much effort getting him to buy-in to his system.  Chip could come in, understand Gus' big picture, and make a few necessary tweaks.  He'll never hire the disruptor to come and truly challenge him b/c he values his system and staff chemistry above all.  It's a gamble he's not willing, or capable, to take.

I slept at a Holiday Inn last night.  And by the way...I bet hiring Muschamp was scary as hell for him (he'd never admit that to anyone though).  His type A presence revealed a lot of weaknesses that was probably difficult for him acknowledge at the time.  In hindsight it helped him tremendously...imagine if our D still sucked.  I bet Steele's nature was a sweet sigh of relief.

Should have just started with that.  Who do you think was Gus's #1 choice?

[Tiger 8,818]

1 minute ago, BJCrawford said:

Point well taken, but his QB woes were still there the last two years. I heard a sports commentator give fisher a complete mulligan for his performance at FSU this year since he lost his QB. Actually heard the same thing relative to mcelwain. I know it’s part of the job to have sufficient fallback plans for a high paid coach,  but doesn’t change the fact he hasn’t had one til this year. Not providing excuses just giving an opinion as to why he appears to coach so cautiously these days.  Remember the 2010 iron bowl? Wonder if he would have gone for that fourth down today? Who knows?

I hear ya. It's why it's so frustrating. That 2010/2013 era Gus' soul got stolen somewhere along the way and now he approaches the game differently. I get what you're saying and if this was an aberration rather than the norm (like Jimbo and FSU) it would be a lot easier to take. And we have a stud at QB that can make teams pay from every corner of the field and we still can't beat teams with comparable talent whether we are spotted 20 pts or if our D only gives up 14 pts. We have the players to beat any team on any given Saturday - Bama included. But if a game comes down to coaching and putting key players in a position to succeed I will put my money on the opposition every time. Not my heart, but my money. 

[AUApostle 7,648]

1 hour ago, ToomersStreet said:

Should have just started with that.  Who do you think was Gus's #1 choice?

Folks that claim to know stuff on here say it was Kendall...and it was decided well in advance in order to get Stidham.

 

And yeah, we've already had a few psychoanalysis threads on Gus from the peanut gallery...the guy is a fun puzzle to figure out.

[PoetTiger 1,896]

IMO there was blame to go around everywhere ..Defense made some bad plays in the first half Davis whiff comes to mind, miss position by Ruffin on long sweep run, missed int by Thomas, special teams TD, and Matthews injury was huge, that in conjunction with poorly called plays and missed execution on others. Does is excuse the play calls we can judge in hindsight....we can all question them. But you win as a team and lose as one...

[AURealist 2,185]

4 hours ago, PoetTiger said:

IMO there was blame to go around everywhere ..Defense made some bad plays in the first half Davis whiff comes to mind, miss position by Ruffin on long sweep run, missed int by Thomas, special teams TD, and Matthews injury was huge, that in conjunction with poorly called plays and missed execution on others. Does is excuse the play calls we can judge in hindsight....we can all question them. But you win as a team and lose as one...

Overall, I think I prefer winning as a team.  

I think teams with better coaches do that more often, while teams with head coaches who choke spend more time losing together as a team.  I think that is what happened against LSU. 

[PoetTiger 1,896]

Just now, AURealist said:

Overall, I think I prefer winning as a team.  

I think teams with better coaches do that more often, while teams with head coaches who choke spend more time losing together as a team.  I think that is what happened against LSU. 

I agree 100% but we can’t discount the mistakes made by the defense and special teams. They impacted the game as well as the inefficient play calling.

[AURealist 2,185]

4 minutes ago, PoetTiger said:

I agree 100% but we can’t discount the mistakes made by the defense and special teams. They impacted the game as well as the inefficient play calling.

I think all players make mistakes.  I'm never going to blame a player for a loss for not making an interception.  If he could catch, he'd be a receiver.

What issues we have on special teams may be systemic.  If that's the case, that's on the coaches.  

A good coach doesn't require or expect his team to play the perfect game.  If that's what a coach needs to win, he either has inferior players, or he's an inferior coach.  I'm thinking AU is suffering mostly from the latter.

[PoetTiger 1,896]

13 minutes ago, AURealist said:

I think all players make mistakes.  I'm never going to blame a player for a loss for not making an interception.  If he could catch, he'd be a receiver.

What issues we have on special teams may be systemic.  If that's the case, that's on the coaches.  

A good coach doesn't require or expect his team to play the perfect game.  If that's what a coach needs to win, he either has inferior players, or he's an inferior coach.  I'm thinking AU is suffering mostly from the latter.

Players have to make plays too and execute according to what the coaches prep them for. Example Danielson (Bama love aside) is a great analyst. He said Steele told his guys you gotta get wide to prevent long gains on the speed sweep. Well on one of LSU’s biggest gains which led to a score...Ruffin did not get wide enough. I am sure Steele hammered that over and over in practice. Guess what ..Ruffin was out of position, and the kid pops it for a big gain. Blame aside his lack of execution on that play impacted the game. I would never walk up to a player and blame him/her for missing a play. Nor would I blame a player here. They do fail to execute at times, which is just a part of the game. A part that can impact the outcome. I am sure the player in this case Ruffin knows he made a mistake on that play. Coaches in turn have to get it cleaned up via film and practice. I doubt if any coach is not doing this with the players on the team. WDE