Gus would be wise to look around

[BigWhiskey91 632]

23 minutes ago, AU64 said:

That's a good point but to be honest, some coaches end up playing ranked teams when they don't have near the resources to be competitive....or are just in a tough league.   Especially coaches from the lower rated conferences who play ranked teams as their homecoming turkey. 

Some folks here like Mullen for example.... but he has one of the worst records against ranked teams among Power 5 coaches.  On the other hand, who wants to play bama, Lsu and Auburn who are ranked just about every year....and then pick up games with Ole Miss or TAMU and at least one SEC East powerhouse?  . So how does one rank DM?   hard to say ?  

Fuentes has probably made the best of a difficult situation though he inherited a pretty strong program and did not suffer much rebuilding.

What / who bothers me are guys like Frost, Brohm  (sp?)  and others who have almost no big time experience or success. 

No this is a great point about Dan Mullen. The big boost he gets from most people is the “success” he has had considering the school. Now I will say his success has been much higher there than that school has experienced over an extended period of time. But that is where expectations come into play.

I know that ranked win/loss is a very subjective measurement of success. Kinda interesting that over 5 years, our average ranked loss is ranked around 6.5 (just round up to 7). And in 2016/2017 we have/will have played the teams that played in the national title the year before. It sucks, but it seems like Auburn is going to consistently be playing atleast 5 ranked teams a year including the bowl games. Malzahn is also .462 against ranked teams using the same criteria I used for the above. 

Note: these numbers aren’t here to serve as an argument for Gus. They are here just to have a baseline for discussion!

[AUBourne 425]

21 minutes ago, AU64 said:

What / who bothers me are guys like Frost, Brohm  (sp?)  and others who have almost no big time experience or success. 

Doesn't bother me at all if someone has not been a head coaches at a power 5 school.  If they have trained under great coaches and have also done exceptionally well at a smaller school or as a coordinator then it could be a perfect way to get the next great coach.  Assistants with the pedigree should not be ignored. 3 teams in the current top 5 are led by coaches that were assistants when made HC (Clemson, Oklahoma, UGA).

[AU64 10,122]

Just now, ClaytonAU said:

So if we lose to UGA and Bama this year, y’all are okay with Gus being 2-8 against our two biggest rivals? 

Not OK...but tell me who is likely to do better in the next few years....or even keep AU ranked pretty much every year?  

The odds are just as good (or maybe better) that we end up where Tennessee or Florida are too with the wrong coach. And as for who makes the hire....that's not the issue 'cause just about every AD has some bad hires on his record.  Foley who was a legend at UF hired a couple and Jeff Long at Arky has a national  reputation and look where his school is now.  No doubt AU is at a bad place with it's schedule there are lots of worse things that can happen to the program than losing to ga and bammer....that's just how I see it.  I'm fine if you disagree....but you can't see the future either.

[Tiger 8,817]

I really think a new coach would come in here with a fresh set of eyes and make our offense explosive not only against the teams that we should be better than, but we could go back to scoring gobs of points on good teams while attacking the whole field too. Gus might be in his own head and lost the mojo. But the funny thing is that we could actually achieve this "fresh set of eyes" without firing him if he would just let CCL call the offense with the same freedom he Gus himself had calling plays as OC for AU.

[AU64 10,122]

3 minutes ago, AUBourne said:

Doesn't bother me at all if someone has not been a head coaches at a power 5 school.  If they have trained under great coaches and have also done exceptionally well at a smaller school or as a coordinator then it could be a perfect way to get the next great coach.  Assistants with the pedigree should not be ignored. 3 teams in the current top 5 are led by coaches that were assistants when made HC (Clemson, Oklahoma, UGA).

That's true but they are also the exception....this page isn't long enough to list all the top assistants, won national awards like Gus and Chiz at Auburn.  Or Muschamp for example who went up and then down and then back up. And hearing that Jimbo is wearing out his welcome at FSU and might be leaving this year...who could have ever thought that possible? .  

And of course there was Dooley and Kiffen and  soon to be former coach Jones at Tennessee......shoot the list is endless since out of 150 or so big schools only a dozen coaches or fewer keep their fans satisfied for very long and that is mostly at places like both MSUs or Iowa where fans are pretty realistic about what can be done there. . 

As for the OP...that's probably good advice but as I said before, I'm betting that Gus will land on his feet while AU is trying to break in a new coach....next year or the year after or whenever. 

[BigWhiskey91 632]

9 minutes ago, ClaytonAU said:

So if we lose to UGA and Bama this year, y’all are okay with Gus being 2-8 against our two biggest rivals? 

If we look at it at face value, 2-8 would suck and perfectly describes the feeling of the fans over the last 4 seasons. 

From 2013-2016, Alabama has been ranked no lower than #2 in the AP at the time of our matchup. They were ranked #1 for 3/4 matchups. I don’t think many are as upset with the Alabama losses as they are the UGA ones. Alabama is likely going to be #1 again heading into this years Iron Bowl (AP).

From 2013-2016, UGA has only been ranked two times out of 4 matchups. The three losses were all painful in their own ways. The 27 pt blowout in 2014 after the A&M loss sucked. The 2015-2016 games were sloppy heartbreaking losses where we were banged up at QB and RB but could only put up 10 pts on average. They both were 1 possession losses too. 

In the end, I think it sucks that we 2-8, and the obvious lack of depth at QB has really smoked us the last two years. But that is part of Malzahns responsibility. For me, the biggest question mark is what route do we go down? Historically we go after a up and coming HC or a guy with limited Experience so the expectations are a wash and it’s a wait and see game. If that is the trend, is it worth it to can Gus (this Amen Corner will give more data) and waste another 4 years hoping another guy pans out?

What should Auburn’s realistic expectations be year in and year out? I feel like as a fan, that we should be competing for the west every year. But should we also account for the last 20 or so years and base minimum expectations off of our history too? If so, we haven’t had back to back 10 win seasons since Pat Dye. That sucks to think about. Our best run was the 2002-2007 where we were 0.766 over that stretch or 9.8 wins and 3 losses. 

So big picture, I am hesistant, but short run, I am game to make a change.

[subterranean_jack 112]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

That's your view but other people disagreed.   As for a future coach, there are a lot of prospects out there but sounds to me like folks here are looking for a coach who can come in an immediately beat bama and ga......or do so the second year.  Yet all those prospects have virtually no experience at the SEC level as a head coach.  And of course, any new coach would have to bring in an entire staff....though he would have the option perhaps of keeping some of the current staff but more likely he would have to replace Steele, Garner. Lindsey and the other dozen or so assistants ....and find equal or better coaches.   Not an easy task. 

As for the nepotism thing...what is more nepotism than UGa hiring a guy who used to play there....because he used to play there.    Not sure what your definition of nepotism is but in fact, AU has mostly hired not-AU people.  Some have had a year or two here previously but coaches move all over the place and come and go regularly but in the case of Gus or Chiz....they had done well at AU and knew the recruiting landscape......so hard for me to see why that all of a sudden is a negative....and that might want a person with similar or lesser accomplishments who would need a GPS to find Auburn University. 

Gus is gonna get fired....this year ....or next  or the year after....that's life for major college coaches these days. Just saying that I'm very doubtful that the program will be improved by any coaching prospect who would actually take the job even with JJ gone. 

PS....and funny that someone used Maryland as an example...fired their 9 win coach because he was a horses patooty....and now are on their third coach in 6 years and have yet to win more than 7 games. 

Granted Auburn was looking for someone who could fix the offense, so Malzahn looked like a good choice. But, Malzahn mentored under Nutt and Chizik, and Smart mentored under Saban, one of the top college coaches ever. Maybe there was bias regarding Alabama and fear that Smart would bolt for Georgia, but Dye played at Georgia and coached at Alabama too.  I, for one, also thought Malzahn was the better candidate at the time. I was wrong. Whoever becomes AD needs to have experience making these types of decisions, not just reaching for a familiar resource.

Those who want Malzahn fired, for the most part, are looking to surpass the 8-win plateau consistently. Besides his first year, there is no evidence Malzahn can surpass this threshold, at least not in the SEC. He has been given all the resources necessary to succeed and succeed on a consistent basis. Instead, it is Malzahn himself and primarily his inability to adapt to game situations  which have proven to be his downfall.

No one is expecting a quick fix. A quick fix is not possible. It is going to take years to overcome the mismanagement of the athletic department. The only question is whether you are satisfied with 8-win seasons and losing to rivals every year or your expectations are higher. Are you willing to sacrifice some short-term gain to address the deep-seeded problems in the athletic department?

As much as I dislike Saban personally, he has shown the capacity to change when necessary. For whatever reason, most SEC football coaches do not possess this ability. The list is very long of one-trick ponies who succeeded at a lower level and found brief success in the SEC before crashing and burning. All of them were good coaches. Some of them were good people. The quality that sets a few apart is the ability to modify their approach when the situation calls for it.

As for nepotism, what more odorous example is there than Auburn? Alabama, prior to Saban's arrival. Saban changed the culture. He managed to get a lot of the deadwood out of a department which had struggled to find a replacement for Bryant for nearly a quarter century, repeatedly asking 'How did Bear do it?'. Saban brought in smart people who implemented a smarter approach. This is what so desperately needed at Auburn.

Jay Jacobs was a product of the good ole boy network which has dominated the state of Alabama in general and Auburn's athletic department specifically forever. But, times have changed. Whatever success that archaic model achieved, it is no longer working. Whether Leath can hire an AD who can overcome, I don't know. But, clearly, that is what is called for. Regardless of whether the next AD has Auburn ties or not, they need to have experience running an athletic department at a fairly high level or an NFL franchise, someone  who has displayed a toughness and willingness to adopt change irregardless of the pain and turnover it causes. Anything less, and we are going to go down the same path of bumbling, fumbling, and repeatedly pissing away opportunities to succeed. And, the only businessmen which should be considered should be in the business of running an athletic department.

[GwillMac6 20,600]

1 hour ago, FullBloodedTiger91 said:

If you consider the context of my response you will see why I used those 2 years. The person I was responding to was talking about Virginia Tech. Besides, I don’t think it’s fair to include his time at Memphis because most of the time your ranked teams are going to be P5 type opponents. I think that puts Memphis at a disadvantage while getting a p5 win is special though considering that disadvantage. 

So to expand it out for you. Since 2012, Fuentes is 3-8 against Ranked competition at the time of the matchup. 

I know I just wanted to be able to include that big win vs a really good ole miss team haha.

[AUBourne 425]

18 minutes ago, AU64 said:

That's true but they are also the exception....this page isn't long enough to list all the top assistants, won national awards like Gus and Chiz at Auburn.  Or Muschamp for example who went up and then down and then back up. And hearing that Jimbo is wearing out his welcome at FSU and might be leaving this year...who could have ever thought that possible? .  

And of course there was Dooley and Kiffen and  soon to be former coach Jones at Tennessee......shoot the list is endless since out of 150 or so big schools only a dozen coaches or fewer keep their fans satisfied for very long and that is mostly at places like both MSUs or Iowa where fans are pretty realistic about what can be done there. . 

As for the OP...that's probably good advice but as I said before, I'm betting that Gus will land on his feet while AU is trying to break in a new coach....next year or the year after or whenever. 

CTT landed on his feet and proved what type of coach he is too. It doesn't take an elite coach to win 8 games a year at AU when they play 4 OC games, Arkansas, Ole Miss and MSU and maybe Missouri, UK or Vandy.

A program can not accept losing to it's rival every year and keep the fans energized. The money will stop and the program will just fall further behind. To me losing to UGA and Bama every year is starting to feel a lot like 2012 but with a bowl as a reward for running over teams with less talent. So yeah taking a chance on an assistant seems a heck of a lot better than accepting  2-10 against rivals.

[Strychnine 1,802]

35 minutes ago, AU64 said:

That's a good point but to be honest, some coaches end up playing ranked teams when they don't have near the resources to be competitive....or are just in a tough league.   Especially coaches from the lower rated conferences who play ranked teams as their homecoming turkey. 

Some folks here like Mullen for example.... but he has one of the worst records against ranked teams among Power 5 coaches.  On the other hand, who wants to play bama, Lsu and Auburn who are ranked just about every year....and then pick up games with Ole Miss or TAMU and at least one SEC East powerhouse?  . So how does one rank DM?   hard to say ?  

Fuentes has probably made the best of a difficult situation though he inherited a pretty strong program and did not suffer much rebuilding.

What / who bothers me are guys like Frost, Brohm  (sp?)  and others who have almost no big time experience or success. 

 

You rank Mullen by the closest thing to an objective metric that you have:  his predecessors.

The main reason I like Mullen is that he has one of the best records of any coach in the entire history of Mississippi State's program.  Getting Mississippi State to a #1 ranking in 2014 was a huge feat there.  Having a win-loss record over 0.500 is a notable achievement in itself.  Unlike his predecessors, he was posting winning records at a time when the entire SEC West was the strongest it has ever been.  I look at his long-term body of work, and I see all the evidence of a good coach.  I think his results represent the ceiling of what can be sustained at Mississippi State, and I think he would excel if given the reigns to a program where could land top talent to work with.  His name is certainly not popular here, but I think he is the best current head coach of a P5 program that Auburn could realistically lure away without having to pay some absurdly ridiculous amount of money.

Like you, I am not so comfortable with the up-and-coming coach du jour like Frost or Brohm.  Sometimes they are the next Urban Meyer, and sometimes they are the next Butch Jones.  That said, such coaches are usually who P5 programs, Auburn included, end up hiring.

Personally, I was ready to see Gus go after the 2016 Clemson game, primarily because it confirmed to me that Gus' greatest obstacle is himself.  I think he would be a great coach if he could take a step back, realize that all of his ideas are not great, and recognize when that is the case before it sinks him.  That is why that particular game still bothers me.  A gameplan that consists of holding QB tryouts in a season opener against a playoff team is not itself a damning decision.  The damning decision is continuing it throughout the entire game, regardless of it becoming abundantly clear before halftime which QB should be taking the snaps for the rest of it, then doubling down on that plan after the game.  I do not think he has reached the point of no return yet, but the next two big games will seal his fate at Auburn, one way or another.

[bigbird 60,367]

55 minutes ago, ToomersStreet said:

Smart was the top coordinator in the nation at the tie of his hire.   Thats why Jacobs made it public that he interviewed Smart.  So that it would look like Gus was more qualified.  Same thing when Muschamp was hired by Florida.  He was the top coordinator in college football at the time.  Let me stress that Jacobs nepotisim was with th football program.  I don't have knowledge with Auburns other sports.  Also  Chizik was 5-19 on a 10 game losing streak but you find it hard to see the negative? The  guy does not know how to run a program. 

As far as Maryland as my example.  I know someone close to Freidgen, and that is their assessment, and their assessment of Auburn.  You are stating your opinion.  I am flat out telling you what an SEC assistant knows of the current landscape. 

100% truth!

 

[AU64 10,122]

6 minutes ago, Strychnine said:

The main reason I like Mullen is that he has one of the best records of any coach in the entire history of Mississippi State's program. 

Jackie Sherrill did pretty well but I think it was after he castrated that bull as an "object lesson" for his team that things kinda went down hill for him there....    Jackie was an interesting dude....that's for sure.

[TheBeachTigger 7]

1 hour ago, ClaytonAU said:

So if we lose to UGA and Bama this year, y’all are okay with Gus being 2-8 against our two biggest rivals? 

I don't believe anyone said that...

[bigbird 60,367]

1 hour ago, ClaytonAU said:

So if we lose to UGA and Bama this year, y’all are okay with Gus being 2-8 against our two biggest rivals? 

And those 2 were "miracle" plays.

[aubaseball 2,583]

8 minutes ago, bigbird said:

And those 2 were "miracle" plays.

 This is what everyone seems to forget

[ausburn 159]

3 minutes ago, bigbird said:

And those 2 were "miracle" plays.

Georgia was.  4th and 18 with 35 sec left.   Bama would of been a yet to be determined in overtime.  The miracle of that game was the timing and how it happened. Still great wins versus bitter loses.   Since then more bitter loses.

[Tiger 8,817]

Gus is dangerously close to becoming the next Hal Mumme -- someone mentioned his coaching tree on here which got me thinking.

Both men changed the game but were(/are?) unable to change themselves when the world caught up to them.

By the way Mumme is currently coaching at Belhaven University. Ironically his offense also is comprised of about only 5 plays. Yikes.

[ToomersStreet 795]

2 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Gus is dangerously close to becoming the next Hal Mumme -- someone mentioned his coaching tree on here which got me thinking.

Both men changed the game but were(/are?) unable to change themselves when the world caught up to them.

By the way Mumme is currently coaching at Belhaven University. Also ironically his offense also is comprised of about only 5 plays. Yikes.

Wow.  I  really like that comparison.  Thank you for that.

[BigWhiskey91 632]

42 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

I know I just wanted to be able to include that big win vs a really good ole miss team haha.

Crazy year. They man handle Ole Miss. Ole Miss beats us at Home. We then man handle Memphis in the bowl (Fuentes was already gone though). 

[BigWhiskey91 632]

8 minutes ago, Tiger said:

Gus is dangerously close to becoming the next Hal Mumme -- someone mentioned his coaching tree on here which got me thinking.

Both men changed the game but were(/are?) unable to change themselves when the world caught up to them.

By the way Mumme is currently coaching at Belhaven University. Also ironically his offense also is comprised of about only 5 plays. Yikes.

Mumme also earned some NCAA violations while at Kentucky whole not having much success overall. 

Not really related, but do we consider Mike Leach as being under Mummes tree or Stoops tree?

[BigWhiskey91 632]

22 minutes ago, bigbird said:

And those 2 were "miracle" plays.

Got to put your team in positions to win games. Hail Mary was absolutely a miracle, but I liked our chances vs UAT in OT. 

[Tiger 8,817]

5 minutes ago, FullBloodedTiger91 said:

Mumme also earned some NCAA violations while at Kentucky whole not having much success overall. 

Not really related, but do we consider Mike Leach as being under Mummes tree or Stoops tree?

True on the NCAA stuff. Mumme fell a looonnggg way from SEC HC coaching a Heisman winner and if Gus doesn't get it together and modernize his O he could be headed down the same path.

I had always heard Leach referred to as a Mumme guy, but that's just me.

[Strychnine 1,802]

4 minutes ago, Tiger said:

True on the NCAA stuff. Mumme fell a looonnggg way from SEC HC coaching a Heisman winner and if Gus doesn't get it together and modernize his O he could be headed down the same path.

I had always heard Leach referred to as a Mumme guy, but that's just me.

 

Leach was with Mumme for nearly a decade, and only worked for one season as Stoops' offensive coordinator, so he would definitely be much more a part of Mumme's coaching tree than Stoops'.

[BigWhiskey91 632]

5 minutes ago, Strychnine said:

 

Leach was with Mumme for nearly a decade, and only worked for one season as Stoops' offensive coordinator, so he would definitely be much more a part of Mumme's coaching tree than Stoops'.

I was just making sure everyone was on the same page ??

[AU64 10,122]

8 minutes ago, FullBloodedTiger91 said:

I was just making sure everyone was on the same page ??

Check this piece on "coaching trees" and you might be surprised to see which coaches rank the highest....including Mumme.  It's a couple years old but interesting and maybe not what you might have thought.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2602993-ranking-the-5-best-coaching-trees-in-college-football