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Scarbinsky: LSU kept Auburn out


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http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/12/alcom_all-access_lsu_kept_aubu.html#incart_river_mobile_index

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AL.com All-Access: LSU kept Auburn out of the playoff and put Alabama in

 

Forget the disappointment of the SEC Championship Game defeat and the mixed reaction to Gus Malzahn's new seven-year $49 million contract. If Auburn fans really want to get frustrated after the events of the weekend, they should consider one extremely plausible theory.

Georgia didn't keep Auburn out of the College Football Playoff.

LSU did.

Of course, if Auburn had beaten Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday, the Tigers would be preparing to play Oklahoma for the second time in a year in the Rose Bowl semifinal. Instead the Bulldogs earned that privilege by flipping the script from their regular-season beatdown on the Plains and taking advantage of a wounded Auburn team.

But the SEC Championship Game may not have mattered much at all in the playoff picture if Auburn hadn't melted down and blown a 20-0 lead at LSU in October.

 

It's easy to feel Auburn's pain today

 

Win that game, and there's a good chance Auburn would've made the playoff despite losing the SEC Championship Game - while Alabama and Ohio State both would've been on the outside looking in.

Consider the scenario. Even after losing the Georgia rematch, the Tigers would've been 11-2 overall with a perfect 8-0 SEC record in the regular season. They would've had two wins better than any on Alabama's resume - plus the head-to-head advantage - with their thorough defeats of the No. 1 Crimson Tide and No. 1 Georgia.

Their two defeats would've been an eight-point road loss at No. 1 playoff seed Clemson without Kerryon Johnson and a 21-point non-neutral site loss to Georgia with their MVP and two defensive starters severely wounded.

That's a better resume than 11-1 Alabama without a division title or a signature win or 11-2 Big Ten champ Ohio State with an embarrassing 31-point loss at 7-5 Iowa.

 

The committee clearly valued Auburn highly. It ranked the Tigers No. 2 after the Iron Bowl, three spots ahead of Alabama and six spots higher than Ohio State. In Sunday's final rankings, even after Georgia 28, Auburn 7, the committee put the 10-3 Tigers at No. 7, making them the highest-ranked three-loss team.

Put all the factors together, and the conclusion seems obvious. The LSU collapse was even worse than we understood. At the time, it put Malzahn on thin ice with his fan base. To add insult to injury, it also kept Auburn out of the playoff and put Alabama in.

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3 minutes ago, hutchids said:

Ohio state should get in before us even if we beat LSU. They won their conference, and we would have identical records.

He has a point, but it literally would've been a 50/50 coin flip between AU and OSU in that case imo.

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I assume if we had beaten LSU, we still would have been ranked 2nd behind Clemson before the SECCG. I don’t see any way that we would have only dropped 2 spots given the beating we took. Bama was set up perfectly to slide in by being ranked 5th.

It’s fun to think about, though.

 

Never mind, it still hurts to think about. 

 

Bartender! Another round...

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I enjoy Scarbinsky's work and the LSU game was a disaster in several ways. 
The idea that AU would have gotten in over Bama is laughable. With Saban there they will ALWAYS get the benefit of any doubts. Their games don't even matter.

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It's a good point but I think it'd be more plausible had we not lost 28-7. 28-24 or something similar and I could see us still sitting ahead of Bama but Saban gets what he wants every year (and admitted as much).

Ratings + money = Bama over Ohio State. That 31 point loss was just bad all around for OSU.

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He's not wrong. That loss to LSU dried up all of our margin for error. The Clemson game we were given a pass because it was on the road, vs defending champs, with new QB and OC. If we finish the LSU game we could've dropped one of these last 3 games and still snuck in IMO. 

Even more infuriating is this team showed could've been undefeated if the staff could have just given Stidham freaking checkdown options in the Clemson game or 2nd half of LSU game!!!!!!! We just had a good season and I felt pretty solid about the year until I read this article.

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I agree the LSU was very bad for AUburn.  It pretty much backed then in a corner to have to win the rest of their games.  Gus said it wasn’t the end of the world, and it wasn’t, but it was an undisciplined lost that possibly cost Auburn more in the end.

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31 minutes ago, 1913-14 said:

SCARBINSKY=GARBAGE;finebaum junior

Nah - he actually praised Auburn a lot this year. He's been tough on us in the past (probably deserved), but he does tend to give us credit when it's due.

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12 minutes ago, auburntiger1987 said:

LSU kept OSU out not AU. A 2 loss non champ would not get in over a Conference champ OSU or a 1 loss Bama.

You're probably right but if we beat the 2 #1s and then dropped the conference championship to UGA (in a non-ugly fashion) we probably could sneak in there with our only losses being to #1 Clemson and then SEC Champion UGA in a rematch after we already beat them. 

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5 minutes ago, Tiger said:

You're probably right but if we beat the 2 #1s and then dropped the conference championship to UGA (in a non-ugly fashion) we probably could sneak in there with our only losses being to #1 Clemson and then SEC Champion UGA in a rematch after we already beat them. 

I agree with this.  11-2 with a win over Alabama a week ago would put the committee in a tough spot especially if the SEC game was more 21-16 which it should have been.  Ifs and buts though.  Let’s get healthy and not let UCF spank Auburn

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I thought the consensus was that the LSU loss was a big reason why we saw what we saw with the team's play and coaching afterwards. If Auburn beats LSU then some of or maybe all of it doesn't happen the same way. Hindsight is what it is. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think a lot of everyone on this is smoking some wacky weed if you don’t think Auburn is in if doesn’t lose to LSU.   No way bama, not a chance that they put them in over us.    The biggest challenger would have been OSU.   And even then I think AU still gets in

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My question would be since the committee puts no points on conference championships why did we even play the game . We could have just refused to play and we were sitting at #2. The committee is just as bad as the old media polls. It’s all about who they want in. We need a conference champ only playoff system. If you don’t win your conference, too bad, you don’t play in this he finals. Of course that will never happen because the money folks decide who plays.

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what this team did and the turn around coaching Gus did after the LSU game deserves all of the accolades we can give this team and coaching staff. This whole Scarbinsky nonsense serves no good whatsoever. The ship was righted by Gus and staff, along with the team doing one heck of a job finishing the season by doing the near impossible and almost beyond that.

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On 12/4/2017 at 11:41 AM, Tiger said:

He's not wrong. That loss to LSU dried up all of our margin for error. The Clemson game we were given a pass because it was on the road, vs defending champs, with new QB and OC. If we finish the LSU game we could've dropped one of these last 3 games and still snuck in IMO. 

Even more infuriating is this team showed could've been undefeated if the staff could have just given Stidham freaking checkdown options in the Clemson game or 2nd half of LSU game!!!!!!! We just had a good season and I felt pretty solid about the year until I read this article.

I dont think check down options wouldve done a single thing for Stidham against Clemson 

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what kept Ohio St, Wisconsin, UCLA out?

A corrupt ncaa/sec that will do whatever possible to get uat in.

Auburn beating the updykes messed up their plan, so they had to scramble to

fix it at the end.

Now we have to fear the worst possible scenario..Georgis vs uat

How stupid is that to have two teams from the same conference playing each other

Go Clemson

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2 hours ago, TigerOne said:

How stupid is that to have two teams from the same conference playing each other

 

Rivalry hate aside, that would be awesome. All I heard was how the SEC was down all offseason and season, but yet three schools almost made the playoffs and an All SEC NC game would be icing on the cake. 

Kanell and his anti-SEC friends would throw a fit and it would be wonderful to watch.

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