JwgreDeux 1,279 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The time for enjoying the win vs Middle Tennessee came and went quickly, as we turn to Murray State. The Racers present a difficult challenge on the road, with their pressure defense and physical style. Stylistically this is a good match up for us, Murray plays a similar style, with a less talented roster. They shoot a good percentage from the floor, but struggle from deep, and hold their opponents to a low percentage from the field, by limiting assists and turning them over. They have good size with a few guys going 6-8 250ish, Miller in particular plays like a man down low, averaging 16.7 pts and 7 rebs per game, but can also pop and shoot the three. Stark is their next guy to be aware of, a small guard who shoots in volume. Other than Miller, their next three scorers averaging low double figures are all smaller guards (6-3 and under). Stark shoots the most threes and is the most dangerous if he gets hot from the floor at home. Murray hasn't played a very tough schedule to get to their 7-2 record, with their two losses coming to Middle Tennessee and St. Louis. We should be well suited to match up in this game. Expect to see Mitchell and Harper play together if the quickness of their guards is giving us trouble on the perimeter. Our posts are more athletic, but could struggle with the physicality if caught out of position. Murray should fit in well in this game, with his size and skill set. Heron should give them match up problems with his size at the 3 and could be in for a big night. Murray at the high post should be effective as well. Honestly, there are a number of ways we should be able to find mis-matches to our advantage in this one. The biggest concern should be our point guards taking care of the ball. If we can handle the environment and not turn the ball over we should be in good shape. Murray St rebounds pretty well, and we will need to prevent second chance opportunities and force them to shoot jump shots. I would look for Brown to have a bounce back game. He will be able to shoot over the smaller players defending him, and should have some transition opportunities to get going. I would also look for us to go to Heron early and often. We handled the atmosphere at Dayton well earlier, can we handle it again and avoid a let down after the big win? With league play in sight this road win can really help our resume. I expect a close game with scoring in the 80s. AU is a -4.5 favorite. AU (43 Ken Pom) vs M. St. (108 Ken Pom); AU (34 RPI) vs M. St. (130). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DunderMifflin 60 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Nice preview of an opponent I don’t know much about. Thanks for putting this together. I like that they are giving more credit for true road wins and this should be another chance to get this team in a different environment before hitting the road for conference play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 hours ago, JwgreDeux said: AU is a -4.5 favorite. AU (43 Ken Pom) vs M. St. (108 Ken Pom); AU (34 RPI) vs M. St. (130). So this win probably didn’t help much tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jared52 4,354 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 10 hours ago, aujeff11 said: So this win probably didn’t help much tonight? It helped by not being a bad loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, jared52 said: It helped by not being a bad loss. SOS, RPI, etc seems to matter right along with winning though. Didn’t USCe start off 15-0 recently (finished 25-9, 11-7 SEC) and failed to make the tournament thanks to a weak schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jared52 4,354 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, aujeff11 said: SOS, RPI, etc seems to matter right along with winning though. Didn’t USCe start off 15-0 recently and failed to make the tournament thanks to a weak schedule? Yep. I’m not saying it helped, I’m just saying that a loss would have really hurt. Playing them hurt, but winning made it hurt less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, jared52 said: Yep. I’m not saying it helped, I’m just saying that a loss would have really hurt. Playing them hurt, but winning made it hurt less. That game was definitely a trap game on the road in that environment. Glad we survived that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravejd 3,270 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wow great win by the team last night. We got no calls until that late charge Harper drew and our shots were not falling but we still found a way to win. For the last 3 years if our shots weren't falling then we were getting blown out regardless of who we were playing. This team has multiple ways they can win and that will pay dividends as we move through the season. Murray State may have a low RPI now but expect that to improve as the season goes along. They hadn't played a very hard schedule but came in with only 2 loses (1 to MTSU). This was a talented team we just beat on the road and a win that i predict will look better and better as the year goes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU64 10,122 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Does it matter how much you win by...as long as you win? The relative RPIs are what they are.....I'd bet this is BP's schedule and he likely made the choice about playing these teams now. I'm guessing he would have preferred to have some wins over mid-quality teams rather than the possibility of a loss o two to a more notable team. I'm thinking there is some strategy to how this year's schedule was put together....even if most of the games were booked last year some time. These are not teams with 200+ RPI....like Ga Tech.... I don't know how these ratings interact but I notice AU is shown with an RPI of 26 vs the SOS of 151....which at this point would seem to mean that the SOS is not being held against us . Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JwgreDeux 1,279 Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 With the SEC looking stronger our SOS will improve as the season goes on. Our out of conference schedule shouldn’t hold us back. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Avery Johnson: "We could easily be 10-1 with a softer schedule but I don't think that would have been beneficial for us." I wonder why he would say “10-1?” Shots fired from squeaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburntiger1987 759 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Johnson needs to shut up he will get swept this year like he should have last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, auburntiger1987 said: Johnson needs to shut up he will get swept this year like he should have last year We swept shorty last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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