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Peach Bowl Game Report Card

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Game #14 Statistical Evaluation (Central Florida)

Offensive Report Card

01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [4.22] fail 
02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [50.0%] pass 
03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [2.04] fail 
04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [35.7%] pass 
05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [28.6%] pass 
06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [7.69 yds] fail 
07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [33.3%] fail 
08) TD red zone above 60%: [66.7%] pass 
09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [30.1 yds] pass
10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [45.9%] pass 
11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [1.0] fail 
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [29.0] fail 
13) At least 8 impact plays:  10 pass 
14) At least 2 big plays:  1 fail 
15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [128.1] pass

Score: 8 of 15 (53.3%) Pass

Defensive Report Card:

01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [3.63] pass 
02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [42.9%] fail 
03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less: [4.69] fail 
04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [42.8%] fail 
05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [21.4%] fail 
06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [6.91 yds] pass 
07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [80.0%] fail 
08) TD red zone below 60%: [60.0%] fail 
09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [29.3 yds] pass 
10) Less than 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [46.5%] fail 
11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [3.0] fail 
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [23.7] fail 
13) Less than 8 impact plays:  13 fail 
14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: 2 pass 
15) Pass rating below 125.0: [122.6] pass

Score: 5 of 15 (33.3%) FAIL

Special Teams Report Card:

1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [39.2] fail 
2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [1.0] pass 
3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [-10.0] fail 
4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [22.5] fail 
5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [29.0] pass 
6) PAT’s (100%): [3/3] pass 
7) FG Pct (75% or above): [2/3] fail

Score: 3 of 7 (42.8%) FAIL 

* 50% is a passing score.

Trailing 13-6 by halftime, it was apparent Auburn was in trouble against Central Florida. Auburn is now 6-17 in games Malzahn's offense is held to under 10 points by halftime, averaging only 15 points per game when it happens. Auburn made a strong rally during the third period, taking a 20-13 lead. Just as the offense began to find its stride, the defense began to wither under pressure. The Knights scored 21 unanswered points to take a 34-20 lead during the fourth quarter. Up to this point, Auburn's offense gained only 66-yards on 28 first down snaps. This included nine consecutive run plays on first down, once the second-half began. 

Much like Georgia did during the conference championship game, UCF was able to smother Auburn's screen game and took away the deep ball. Auburn's short passing game accounted for over 53 percent of the pass attempts this season and the Knights were able to snuff it out. Without any success in the deep passing game and no running game, the Auburn offense was destined for failure. During 162 collegiate games, Gus Malzahn's offense is 2-11, when being held to under 100-yards rushing, averaging just 18 points per game. Of those 13 games held to under 100-yards, three came against Central Florida, with Malzahn's offense being held to an average of 25 points per game. Malzahn's offense is now 0-3 against Central Florida, with two of the losses coming while Malzahn was the offensive coordinator at Tulsa.

If there was any bright spot for such a disappointing defeat, Jarrett Stidham did throw for 331-yards and was close to tying up the game with under a minute left in the game. During the eight previous games Auburn was held to under 100-yards rushing, Malzahn's offense averaged only 149-yards passing while scoring an average of 14.6 points per game. Once Stidham was permitted to target the middle of the field on intermediate passing plays, he was able to gash the Knight defense with five impact plays. UCF played their safeties deep and wide (outside the hash-marks) the majority of the game. It wasn't until Auburn fell behind 20-34 when Stidham was allowed to target this area on a consistent basis. 

The offense barely finished with a passing grade, and the three turnovers were the "death nail" for an offense that prides itself on running the football. The defense performed well early on, allowing only 79-yards during their first six trips to the field. They closed out the game allowing 317-yards during the final seven possessions before UCF knelt on the ball to expire the game on its last possession. As the game wore on, Auburn began to lose the crucial battles up front on both sides of the line of scrimmage. On paper, Auburn should have been the better team but in the end, Auburn was out-coached, and UCF played a more inspired game. 

War Eagle!

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"...before Stidham was allowed to target the intermediate passes..." 

Allowed by whom...UCF defense or AU offensive staff?

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Thanks for all the work you've done all season, Stat.  

These Report Cards are just about the best threads on the site.  

War Eagle!

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Thanks for the stat work all season.

As for the defensive fail....I could express it in a couple statements:   

(a)  keep constant pressure on the QB and make at least 5 sacks ...fail

(b)  prevent little QB from making impact plays with his feet and keep him to negative net yards rushing  ....fail 

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51 minutes ago, Swamp Eagle said:

"...before Stidham was allowed to target the intermediate passes..." 

Allowed by whom...UCF defense or AU offensive staff?

I was screaming this the whole game and then stidham threw an interception to his intermediate route. i'd like to see the stats on this. But it seems most of his interceptions do come from his passes to the intermediate routes which may explain the lack of their use

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23 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Thanks for the stat work all season.

As for the defensive fail....I could express it in a couple statements:   

(a)  keep constant pressure on the QB and make at least 5 sacks ...fail

(b)  prevent little QB from making impact plays with his feet and keep him to negative net yards rushing  ....fail 

Is it me or is kevin steele rather conservative with his defense and use of pressure. It seemed all 4 man rushes in the bowl game despite the lack of pressure.

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Just now, shabby said:

Is it me or is kevin steele rather conservative with his defense and use of pressure. It seemed all 4 man rushes in the bowl game despite the lack of pressure.

It's like coaching on both sides of the ball thought we could just simply show up and overpower UCF's lines.

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19 minutes ago, shabby said:

Is it me or is kevin steele rather conservative with his defense and use of pressure. It seemed all 4 man rushes in the bowl game despite the lack of pressure.

No. You're right.

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54 minutes ago, shabby said:

Is it me or is kevin steele rather conservative with his defense and use of pressure. It seemed all 4 man rushes in the bowl game despite the lack of pressure.

We haven't pressured much all year.  Maybe a delay line backer blitz or blitz from the outside every once in a while.  I think Coach Steele's strategy for the year was to make the other offense earn it.  Don't give up the big play and let the front 4 win the line of scrimmage.  It worked well for most games.   

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Have we ever run a variation of the tunnel screen where the blocking WR fakes the block and goes long?   I don't recall ever seeing that and it would seem to be a simple variation to get DBs off of our screen play.

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2 minutes ago, 1auburn1 said:

Have we ever run a variation of the tunnel screen where the blocking WR fakes the block and goes long?   I don't recall ever seeing that and it would seem to be a simple variation to get DBs off of our screen play.

Yes we have a few times this year.  The biggest issue on the screen game is Ryan Davis is the screen guy.  He doesn't threaten the defender with the deep ball so they don't play off of him.  When in the stack it's usually NCM in front of R. Davis.  The RPO screen is all about R. Davis making his guy miss as NCM blocks his guy.  Davis had issues with slipping this game as well.  He made a play or 2 but not enough.  

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39 minutes ago, corchjay said:

We haven't pressured much all year.  Maybe a delay line backer blitz or blitz from the outside every once in a while.  I think Coach Steele's strategy for the year was to make the other offense earn it.  Don't give up the big play and let the front 4 win the line of scrimmage.  It worked well for most games.   

As well as that qb saw and reacted to pressure a blitz might have been detrimental to the defense. 

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54 minutes ago, corchjay said:

We haven't pressured much all year.  Maybe a delay line backer blitz or blitz from the outside every once in a while.  I think Coach Steele's strategy for the year was to make the other offense earn it.  Don't give up the big play and let the front 4 win the line of scrimmage.  It worked well for most games.   

I don't recall the details game by game but funny that after the Peach Bowl our coaches said that our offense was disrupted by their "exotic" blitzes and such and yet we never even tried a  "non-exotic" blitz to disrupt their offense. ...which we knew was mostly based on passing. 

JMO but we were fortunate that in the first half their QB was off his game and missed a number of wide open throws.  

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Curious that Brock Huard (sp?) was giving away our runnng back spacing tendency (runnng backs line up deeper for runnng play I think it was). I assume he got that tip from UCF at practice.  Of course almost immediately we brok tendency.  

We seemed to play "heavy" all day like maybe they all stayed up too late eating Waffle Fries from CFA.

Why not give Malik a series or two?

 

 

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42 minutes ago, corchjay said:

Yes we have a few times this year.  The biggest issue on the screen game is Ryan Davis is the screen guy.  He doesn't threaten the defender with the deep ball so they don't play off of him.  When in the stack it's usually NCM in front of R. Davis.  The RPO screen is all about R. Davis making his guy miss as NCM blocks his guy.  Davis had issues with slipping this game as well.  He made a play or 2 but not enough.  

But those plays made the pass completions stats look good.....as long as you don't look to hard at the actual results of the plays.  And of course their DBs were set for those plays and you have to give them credit.....their kids made good solid tackles just about every time in a "one on one" situation with Davis.    Plus, even the announcers who had never seen AU play were generally able to predict by our positioning in the backfield whether it was a run or pass play so they were overloaded to that side also . 

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1 hour ago, 1auburn1 said:

Have we ever run a variation of the tunnel screen where the blocking WR fakes the block and goes long?   I don't recall ever seeing that and it would seem to be a simple variation to get DBs off of our screen play.

Yes we have and ran it at least once against UCF but Stidham did not throw it that way.

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That StatTiger.  You are a treasure trove of great stuff!

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2 hours ago, shabby said:

I was screaming this the whole game and then stidham threw an interception to his intermediate route. i'd like to see the stats on this. But it seems most of his interceptions do come from his passes to the intermediate routes which may explain the lack of their use

Data shows there is indeed a higher probability for a pick but the risk to reward factor is clearly in favor of the offense as long as the QB is an accurate passer. For the most part, the pass offense this season has been screens, outs and deep balls. AU has thrown more deep sideline routes than posts which have a lesser probability for success as the sideline acts as an extra defender.

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1 hour ago, Oldmactech said:

Curious that Brock Huard (sp?) was giving away our runnng back spacing tendency (runnng backs line up deeper for runnng play I think it was). I assume he got that tip from UCF at practice.  Of course almost immediately we brok tendency.  

We seemed to play "heavy" all day like maybe they all stayed up too late eating Waffle Fries from CFA.

Why not give Malik a series or two?

 

 

I thought we would - as kind of a trick or gimmick.  Instead of running the wildcat, I thought we’d throw one or 2 drives at them with Malik running.  At least once before half which would have required them to spend some of halftime discussing it.  

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I think the Bowl performance can be summed up by this quote from CGM when asked about the early signing period...

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/01/what_did_gus_malzahn_learn_fro.html#incart_river_index

What did Auburn's Gus Malzahn learn from 1st early signing period?

"We're trying to recruit as we're preparing for the SEC Championship Game, and, of course, then trying to finish that up. It was different. It was challenging. Then, of course, once we got into Bowl prep and all that, early on, we were really focused on our young guys developing, and we did a little bit on Central Florida."

Maybe I'm reading a little more into this but the performance screamed out agreement with this.

Edited by AU04ever
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6 hours ago, StatTiger said:

.... This included nine consecutive run plays on first down, once the second-half began. 

...and SINCE WE RAN THE SAME  FREAKING RUNNING PLAY ON FIRST DOWN EVERY FREAKING TIME ALL SEASON LONG, I think we gained a total of 9 yards on those 9 plays.  I wonder if we led led the country on percentage of plays 2nd and 9 (or worse).

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6 hours ago, AU64 said:

I don't recall the details game by game but funny that after the Peach Bowl our coaches said that our offense was disrupted by their "exotic" blitzes and such and yet we never even tried a  "non-exotic" blitz to disrupt their offense. ...which we knew was mostly based on passing. 

JMO but we were fortunate that in the first half their QB was off his game and missed a number of wide open throws.  

And we made no halftime adjustments.....brilliant coaching...smh.

You are correct sir regarding their qb being off for a bit.

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