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2018 Regular Season Projection


beaumak

Fun 2018 Regular Season Projection  

54 members have voted

  1. 1. How many Regular Season Wins Granted team is still to be determined by some personnel

    • 6-6 or less = Bye Gus! Gosh we love throwing money around!
      0
    • 7-5 = Good lord hit with another fungus. Really Gus? How shall we treat the next case of ringworm?
      9
    • 8-4 = Rebuilding right?!? But the recruits look good.
      19
    • 9-3 = It is what it is. no more no less.
      16
    • 10-2 = Solid but with what ifs. DO we get scared and extend yet again?
      9
    • 11-1 = Sitting pretty. Let's go ahead and double down from last year, 14 years $98 million
      1
    • 12-0 = "$100 billion dollars". Gus for life!
      0

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  • Poll closed on 01/11/2018 at 01:30 AM

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16 minutes ago, TAYLORKEETON said:

I’ve seeen one post here, multiple posts on other AU boards, & Twitter feeds as well. Not specifically this “entire thread,” but there are multiple fans who are calling for a blow out 

Ok... it just hasn't happened in this thread. Apologies, but I see a lot of hyperbole on this site so occasionally I feel the need to keep it in check.

Let's face it, anyone who calls for us to blow out any team that isn't a full on cupcake doesn't know what they are talking about. Can we do it?  Sure, but to predict it, considering the quality of the teams we play... after all, we almost always have one of the hardest schedules in the country... is just showing a lack of football knowledge.

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1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

Ok... it just hasn't happened in this thread. Apologies, but I see a lot of hyperbole on this site so occasionally I feel the need to keep it in check.

Let's face it, anyone who calls for us to blow out any team that isn't a full on cupcake doesn't know what they are talking about. Can we do it?  Sure, but to predict it, considering the quality of the teams we play... after all, we almost always have one of the hardest schedules in the country... is just showing a lack of football knowledge.

 

captainhype.jpg

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4 hours ago, McLoofus said:

No question in my mind that TAMU is going to cause some issues. Like you, I just hope that it takes awhile. 

One of the things that's been so frustrating about the Gus experience- maybe *the* most frustrating thing- has been the losses to bad uga teams. It absolutely matters that we didn't take advantage of those opportunities. Same with LSU this past season. TAMU this coming season could be another example. 

The other "most" frustrating thing about the Gus Experience is that the roller coaster that is "Did Gus turn the corner? Yes!....uh, No.", makes fun threads like this an exercise in futility.

If I get fooled by Gus THIS year, it'll be a GOOD thing.

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4 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

The other "most" frustrating thing about the Gus Experience is that the roller coaster that is "Did Gus turn the corner? Yes!....uh, No.", makes fun threads like this an exercise in futility.

If I get fooled by Gus THIS year, it'll be a GOOD thing.

Preach.

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1 hour ago, AUsince72 said:

The other "most" frustrating thing about the Gus Experience is that the roller coaster that is "Did Gus turn the corner? Yes!....uh, No.", makes fun threads like this an exercise in futility.

If I get fooled by Gus THIS year, it'll be a GOOD thing.

Gus is the text book I'll believe it when I see it coach.   Just win and beat our rivals (which he basically did last year during regular season, but wet the bed in the SECCG which totally cancelled out the win against uga in JHS because it was for a damn championship and a chance to go to the playoff) and bowl games (that he continued to suck out loud as a HC, UCF didn't belong on the field with us talent wise, but because of their superior coaching, they kicked our ass and made us like it).  Gus needs to step up his damn game after his big contract.  He owes AU fans that.

wde

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For all of you chalking up UW as a loss, please note that they typically lose when playing a team with big, fast defensive linemen.  USC wrecked them in 2016 in Seattle.  An average Stanford team beat them this past year, and Penn State drilled them for most of the Fiesta.  All of those teams had good d-lines though.  Point is, we match up well.

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1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

For all of you chalking up UW as a loss, please note that they typically lose when playing a team with big, fast defensive linemen.  USC wrecked them in 2016 in Seattle.  An average Stanford team beat them this past year, and Penn State drilled them for most of the Fiesta.  All of those teams had good d-lines though.  Point is, we match up well.

We matched up a whole lot better against UCF in terms of talent.  Lack of coaching, lack of preparation and lack of determination resulted in an ass kicking against UCF.  The same result is not impossible when we play Washington given Gus' past history in terms of having us ready to play early.  Plus Gustav is on easy street in terms of pressure for about 2 years due to his new contract.  

wde

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9 minutes ago, AUIH1 said:

We matched up a whole lot better against UCF in terms of talent.  Lack of coaching, lack of preparation and lack of determination resulted in an ass kicking against UCF.  The same result is not impossible when we play Washington given Gus' past history in terms of having us ready to play early.  Plus Gustav is on easy street in terms of pressure for about 2 years due to his new contract.  

wde

A bowl game that our team wasn't motivated for (see: Davis, Carlton) is quite different from a season opener.  I seriously hope our fans realize that.

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Just now, Brad_ATX said:

A bowl game that our team wasn't motivated for (see: Davis, Carlton) is quite different from a season opener.  I seriously hope our fans realize that.

Jax State 2015 which lead to LSU, Clemson 2016 is a great example and even GSU 2017 which lead to Clemson 2017 and Mercer are great examples of Gustav screwing the pooch and all AU fans early in the season.  Our fans certainly realize how Gustav has coached during his time at AU.

wde

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7 minutes ago, AUIH1 said:

Jax State 2015 which lead to LSU, Clemson 2016 is a great example and even GSU 2017 which lead to Clemson 2017 and Mercer are great examples of Gustav screwing the pooch and all AU fans early in the season.  Our fans certainly realize how Gustav has coached during his time at AU.

wde

Cool.  You conveniently left out Washington State 2013, 2014 Arkansas and K-State, and Louisville 2015, which were all wins within the first three weeks.  In fact, three of those four wins were the season openers (WSU, Ark, & Louisville) and two of the four were away from home.

And arguing that blowing out GSU last year led to the Clemson loss or that how we played against JSU in 2015 lead to the LSU loss is foolish.  One game had nothing to do with the other.  Our o-line got dominated at Clemson this year.  2015 was a bad football team altogether.  And I should mention that while the Mercer game sucked this year, we won and it didn't hurt us one bit in the polls come Conference Championship Week (we were #2 if you remember correctly).

Man I feel like some of y'all look to complain just for the sake of it.

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5 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Cool.  You conveniently left out Washington State 2013, 2014 Arkansas and K-State, and Louisville 2015, which were all wins within the first three weeks.  In fact, three of those four wins were the season openers (WSU, Ark, & Louisville) and two of the four were away from home.

And arguing that blowing out GSU last year led to the Clemson loss or that how we played against JSU in 2015 lead to the LSU loss is foolish.  One game had nothing to do with the other.  Our o-line got dominated at Clemson this year.  2015 was a bad football team altogether.  And I should mention that while the Mercer game sucked this year, we won and it didn't hurt us one bit in the polls come Conference Championship Week (we were #2 if you remember correctly).

Man I feel like some of y'all look to complain just for the sake of it.

And I feel like if reality hit some of y'all in your blinded heads with a sledge hammer, you would continue to give Gustav a pass no matter what even while walking around with a caved in head. Gus needs to win big including championships (not some weak ass SEC West championship when you get your ass kicked in the SECCG by your second biggest rival).

wde

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7 minutes ago, AUIH1 said:

And I feel like if reality hit some of y'all in your blinded heads with a sledge hammer, you would continue to give Gustav a pass no matter what even while walking around with a caved in head. Gus needs to win big including championships (not some weak ass SEC West championship when you get your ass kicked in the SECCG by your second biggest rival).

wde

I'm not giving anyone a pass.  Here's reality, by regular season wins the last few years:

2015: 6 

2016: 8

2017: 10

Please tell me what manager or boss would fire an employee who's producing that kind of consistent growth in any field?  And winning the West isn't weak.  We live in the same damn division as the most successful coach in college football history, yet we've taken the division two of the last five years.  We've taken the division more times than any other team besides Bama this decade (3).  And by the way, no one cashes in on the title game every time they make it.  Not Saban.  Not Belicheck.

Please don't forget as well that we've won exactly two national titles in our entire existence.  We've had back-to-back 10 wins seasons once.  Maybe instead of winning big, we should shoot for high level consistency first, because with the exception of the 80s, Auburn hasn't experienced that in over 125 years of football.

You live in GA so I can see why this is worse for you, but from the 25K foot view here in Texas, our trajectory looks to be right on track.

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On 1/3/2018 at 3:00 PM, NorthGATiger said:

Oct. 13: vs. Tennessee   Loss ( This may surprise some but I expect Pruitt will have the defense ready to play.  He has seen this offense enough )

We haven’t lost to them since Jeff Klein was leading the offense. That was @ Knoxville. SHOULD have beaten them the season prior at home their MNC season (4 straight plays at the 1). 

Won’t lose to them this season.

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1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm not giving anyone a pass.  Here's reality, by regular season wins the last few years:

2015: 6 

2016: 8

2017: 10

Please tell me what manager or boss would fire an employee who's producing that kind of consistent growth in any field?  And winning the West isn't weak.  We live in the same damn division as the most successful coach in college football history, yet we've taken the division two of the last five years.  We've taken the division more times than any other team besides Bama this decade (3).  And by the way, no one cashes in on the title game every time they make it.  Not Saban.  Not Belicheck.

Please don't forget as well that we've won exactly two national titles in our entire existence.  We've had back-to-back 10 wins seasons once.  Maybe instead of winning big, we should shoot for high level consistency first, because with the exception of the 80s, Auburn hasn't experienced that in over 125 years of football.

You live in GA so I can see why this is worse for you, but from the 25K foot view here in Texas, our trajectory looks to be right on track.

Excuse me, sir. But could you please leave logic at the door to the forum? It is not wanted in here. Nor respected.

 

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46 minutes ago, SumterAubie said:

Excuse me, sir. But could you please leave logic at the door to the forum? It is not wanted in here. Nor respected.

 

Getting rid of bird would be a start...just saying

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14 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Maybe instead of winning big, we should shoot for high level consistency first

Bingo.

Yay! We won 10 games and crushed Amen Corner! And that means... that means... oh, wait. That didn't end up really meaning anything. 

Some of y'all will roll your eyes or face palm or whatever, but if you haven't researched saban's "process", it makes perfect sense to me and, after a few notable games the last couple seasons, seems in stark contrast to some of Gus's tendencies. Ironically, it's a similar to the concept of "eating the elephant". Figure out what we are and consistently be that to the fullest of our capabilities. That's how the wins are going to come. 
 

Quote

Saban owes this philosophy to Dr. Lionel "Lonny" Rosen, a Michigan State University psychiatry professor he befriended when he coached there in the late '90s, writes Monte Burke in his book "Saban: The Making of a Coach."

Saban had long been interested in psychology and wanted to incorporate an understanding of how the mind works into his coaching style. Rosen started showing up to practices and became known to players as "the wizard dude" and "Lonny Graybeard," since, as Burke puts it, "he looks like someone who has just wandered back into civilization after seven months on the Appalachian Trail."

The Process was born in early November 1998, leading up to a big game against the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. The team wasn't feeling confident, and Saban turned to Rosen for guidance.

Rosen taught the Michigan State Spartans a form of step-by-step thinking developed by cognitive therapy pioneer Aaron Beck and popularly used in the Alcoholics Anonymous recovery program.

"Rosen emphasized that the average play in the football game lasted about seven seconds," Burke writes. "The players would concentrate only on winning those seconds, take a rest between plays, then do it all over again. There would be no focus at all on the scoreboard or on the end results."

The game against Ohio State started off terribly. With 10 minutes left in the third quarter, the Buckeyes were beating the Spartans 24-9. But the players and coaches remained calm, Michigan State's then quarterback Bill Burke told Monte Burke. It felt like "we had an infinite amount of time to come back," he said.Amazon

After fighting back, the Spartans were ahead 25-24 with just under 11 minutes left in the third quarter.

(Loof edit: blah blah blah)

The Spartans won.

Michigan State had managed to recover from a disheartening first half by remembering the Process, by stoically plugging away play by play until they came back for a tremendous upset.

From that point on, Saban used Rosen as a consultant, regardless of where he coached. Rosen acts like a shrink for Saban's players, consulting them individually and figuring out the way they think so that Saban can best reach them and keep them focused on what's directly in front of them.

http://www.businessinsider.com/alabama-coach-nick-saban-process-2015-8


 

 

 

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17 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm not giving anyone a pass.  Here's reality, by regular season wins the last few years:

2015: 6 

2016: 8

2017: 10

Please tell me what manager or boss would fire an employee who's producing that kind of consistent growth in any field?  And winning the West isn't weak.  We live in the same damn division as the most successful coach in college football history, yet we've taken the division two of the last five years.  We've taken the division more times than any other team besides Bama this decade (3).  And by the way, no one cashes in on the title game every time they make it.  Not Saban.  Not Belicheck.

Please don't forget as well that we've won exactly two national titles in our entire existence.  We've had back-to-back 10 wins seasons once.  Maybe instead of winning big, we should shoot for high level consistency first, because with the exception of the 80s, Auburn hasn't experienced that in over 125 years of football.

You live in GA so I can see why this is worse for you, but from the 25K foot view here in Texas, our trajectory looks to be right on track.

Not @AUIH1but I believe the bolded part you say above is what they (and many of us) are speaking to.

Nobody has argued that Gus hasn't had some success.  Nobody has argued that AU teams under him haven't won big from time to time.  Nobody has argued that he hasn't trended upward in wins since the relative disaster that was 2015.

However, until he quits having 2-3 total brain-fart meltdowns against teams that frankly AU should be better than, every single year, then there is no consistency for us fans to hang our hats on and feel confident that "we have the personnel" or "we have the scheme" or "we have the defense"....cuz in the back of our minds we just know that he's going to take over at some point, go back to his comfort zone, and high-school the offense to it's death and blame the players for not executing.

I try not to be ugly but, do you really not see that?

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12 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

Not @AUIH1but I believe the bolded part you say above is what they (and many of us) are speaking to.

Nobody has argued that Gus hasn't had some success.  Nobody has argued that AU teams under him haven't won big from time to time.  Nobody has argued that he hasn't trended upward in wins since the relative disaster that was 2015.

However, until he quits having 2-3 total brain-fart meltdowns against teams that frankly AU should be better than, every single year, then there is no consistency for us fans to hang our hats on and feel confident that "we have the personnel" or "we have the scheme" or "we have the defense"....cuz in the back of our minds we just know that he's going to take over at some point, go back to his comfort zone, and high-school the offense to it's death and blame the players for not executing.

I try not to be ugly but, do you really not see that?

I see what you're saying, but it seems as if consistent progress is being discounted here.  Again, we've increased our regular season win total by two every year since 2015.  Now, can we sustain 10+ wins a year and be in the hunt every single year?  That's the next big question.

Also, you're complaining about "high-schooling the offense", but that offense dominated for most of last season.  Could he have rotated running backs better to keep us healthier for the title game?  Oh for sure.  But the scheme works the majority of the time.

The other thing people discount is that this program was not in the best shape after Chizik left.  We had a bunch of returning upper classmen on the o-line in 2013 and caught lightning with Nick Marshall, but there was some serious rebuilding that had to be done.  Remember how many players left/got kicked off the team?  Remember how bad the defense was overall?  Those holes take time to fill and the depth takes time to recruit.  I actually agree with Gus when he said we're finally set up to sustain success.  Now it's up to him to make that happen.

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3 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Bingo.

Yay! We won 10 games and crushed Amen Corner! And that means... that means... oh, wait. That didn't end up really meaning anything. 

Some of y'all will roll your eyes or face palm or whatever, but if you haven't researched saban's "process", it makes perfect sense to me and, after a few notable games the last couple seasons, seems in stark contrast to some of Gus's tendencies. Ironically, it's a similar to the concept of "eating the elephant". Figure out what we are and consistently be that to the fullest of our capabilities. That's how the wins are going to come. 
 


 

 

 

Many Thanks (both for blurb & links)

ETA - "s"

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6 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I see what you're saying, but it seems as if consistent progress is being discounted here.  Again, we've increased our regular season win total by two every year since 2015.  Now, can we sustain 10+ wins a year and be in the hunt every single year?  That's the next big question.

Also, you're complaining about "high-schooling the offense", but that offense dominated for most of last season.  Could he have rotated running backs better to keep us healthier for the title game?  Oh for sure.  But the scheme works the majority of the time.

The other thing people discount is that this program was not in the best shape after Chizik left.  We had a bunch of returning upper classmen on the o-line in 2013 and caught lightning with Nick Marshall, but there was some serious rebuilding that had to be done.  Remember how many players left/got kicked off the team?  Remember how bad the defense was overall?  Those holes take time to fill and the depth takes time to recruit.  I actually agree with Gus when he said we're finally set up to sustain success.  Now it's up to him to make that happen.

2015 was the perfect storm of injuries, attitudes, the great JJ mystery and Chizik's last couple recruiting classes coming home to roost. No doubt.

2016 should've been better than it was. There were a couple games that Gus just completely blew as a head coach and roster deficiencies did not explain away. 

2017 should've been better than it was. There were a couple games that Gus just completely blew as a head coach and roster deficiencies did not explain away.

I see what you're saying. It matters that we got better, and it matters that we won those big games in November. It matters that we've recruited well and now have the kind of depth we maybe haven't had since the mid aughts. "There's no question." But it also matters that we performed worse against Clemson's defense this season than every other offense they faced, including a D2 team. It matters that we blew that 20 point lead at LSU this season. It matters that, despite the offense working in most games, it really, really didn't in some others. The point of a comment I made earlier, and I think maybe of @AUsince72's high school comment, is that those 10 wins/great offense didn't ultimately win us anything because of Gus still screwing up in other games. 

I think maybe you and I agree, and I think we all agree about consistency, but I also see where other people aren't going to put much stock in 10 wins and winning Amen Corner until we bring home a trophy. 

 

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2 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I see what you're saying. It matters that we got better, and it matters that we won those big games in November. It matters that we've recruited well and now have the kind of depth we maybe haven't had since the mid aughts. "There's no question." But it also matters that we performed worse against Clemson's defense this season than every other offense they faced, including a D2 team. It matters that we blew that 20 point lead at LSU this season. It matters that, despite the offense working in most games, it really, really didn't in some others. The point of a comment I made earlier, and I think maybe of @AUsince72's high school comment, is that those 10 wins/great offense didn't ultimately win us anything because of Gus still screwing up in other games. 

I think maybe you and I agree, and I think we all agree about consistency, but I also see where other people aren't going to put much stock in 10 wins and winning Amen Corner until we bring home a trophy. 

 

The only game that affected our ability to win championships this year was the SEC Title game.  We were #2 in the country in that game.  Losing to LSU and Clemson had no bearing on our ability to control our own destiny at the beginning of December.  That's where I revert to this: it's unreasonable to expect to win every title game you play in.  Belicheck has lost Super Bowls.  Saban has lost a National Title Game and an SEC Title Game.  Meyer has lost a couple of Big Ten Title games.  The only thing you can do is continually put yourself in position to win.  I think we're finally at a point to where we can do that consistently.

I actually see us on a similar trajectory to what Dabo has done at Clemson.  Struggled with consistency his first three years.  But then, as recruiting settled in, every year got a little better with consistent growth.  He had some 11-2 and 10-3 type seasons for several years.  They only won the conference once in the course of his first seven years, but built consistency.  We all know what's happened the last three years with his teams (3 ACC titles, 3 Playoff Appearances, 1 Natty).  The tough part for us is that our path is typically much harder than Clemson's on a yearly basis, but my overall point is that patience pays off.

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12 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

The only game that affected our ability to win championships this year was the SEC Title game.  We were #2 in the country in that game.  Losing to LSU and Clemson had no bearing on our ability to control our own destiny at the beginning of December. 

Inaccurate. bama was #1 when they played us, then #5, then won it all. Why? Because they didn't lose games earlier in the season. They were forgiven their loss against us because their overall resume was strong. There's a very strong chance we would have been forgiven a close loss in the SECCG if ours had been, too. At a minimum, we would've stayed ahead of bama in the rankings.

Quote

That's where I revert to this: it's unreasonable to expect to win every title game you play in.  Belicheck has lost Super Bowls.  Saban has lost a National Title Game and an SEC Title Game.  Meyer has lost a couple of Big Ten Title games.  The only thing you can do is continually put yourself in position to win.  I think we're finally at a point to where we can do that consistently.

Absolutely. Hopefully Gus will be as good as his roster one day soon and he'll accomplish this. 

Quote

I actually see us on a similar trajectory to what Dabo has done at Clemson.  Struggled with consistency his first three years.  But then, as recruiting settled in, every year got a little better with consistent growth.  He had some 11-2 and 10-3 type seasons for several years.  They only won the conference once in the course of his first seven years, but built consistency.  We all know what's happened the last three years with his teams (3 ACC titles, 3 Playoff Appearances, 1 Natty).  The tough part for us is that our path is typically much harder than Clemson's on a yearly basis, but my overall point is that patience pays off.

I didn't pay much attention to Clemson in Dabo's early years, so I don't really know the nature of his losses. Were they completely inept, mind-numbingly bad losses in important games? If yes, then this analogy is encouraging. Regardless, people do tend to forget that Gus is very young in the profession. I pointed out at some point during the season that saban was transitioning either to or from the NFL at the same time Gus got his first college gig. 

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52 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

2015 was the perfect storm of injuries, attitudes, the great JJ mystery and Chizik's last couple recruiting classes coming home to roost. No doubt.

2016 should've been better than it was. There were a couple games that Gus just completely blew as a head coach and roster deficiencies did not explain away. 

2017 should've been better than it was. There were a couple games that Gus just completely blew as a head coach and roster deficiencies did not explain away.

I see what you're saying. It matters that we got better, and it matters that we won those big games in November. It matters that we've recruited well and now have the kind of depth we maybe haven't had since the mid aughts. "There's no question." But it also matters that we performed worse against Clemson's defense this season than every other offense they faced, including a D2 team. It matters that we blew that 20 point lead at LSU this season. It matters that, despite the offense working in most games, it really, really didn't in some others. The point of a comment I made earlier, and I think maybe of @AUsince72's high school comment, is that those 10 wins/great offense didn't ultimately win us anything because of Gus still screwing up in other games. 

I think maybe you and I agree, and I think we all agree about consistency, but I also see where other people aren't going to put much stock in 10 wins and winning Amen Corner until we bring home a trophy. 

 

Not to mention the cupcakes we had to squeak by so badly that we could not get younger players any reps.  The eggs Gus lays tarnish the small progress he makes

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58 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

2015 was the perfect storm of injuries, attitudes, the great JJ mystery and Chizik's last couple recruiting classes coming home to roost. No doubt.

 

Err, the 2011 class won us the 2013 SEC title.

Now the 2012 class, you're right.

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19 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm not giving anyone a pass.  Here's reality, by regular season wins the last few years:

2015: 6 

2016: 8

2017: 10

Please tell me what manager or boss would fire an employee who's producing that kind of consistent growth in any field?  And winning the West isn't weak.  We live in the same damn division as the most successful coach in college football history, yet we've taken the division two of the last five years.  We've taken the division more times than any other team besides Bama this decade (3).  And by the way, no one cashes in on the title game every time they make it.  Not Saban.  Not Belicheck.

Please don't forget as well that we've won exactly two national titles in our entire existence.  We've had back-to-back 10 wins seasons once.  Maybe instead of winning big, we should shoot for high level consistency first, because with the exception of the 80s, Auburn hasn't experienced that in over 125 years of football.

You live in GA so I can see why this is worse for you, but from the 25K foot view here in Texas, our trajectory looks to be right on track.

We've also had the second most SEC titles, and most wins against Saban-coached Alabama teams of any SEC team.

Gustav has his faults, sure (for which I'll be quick to call him out), but I feel it's important to acknowledge his strengths.

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