2018 playoff - I’m calling it now

[api1957 1,783]

Doesn't count, didn't say mark my words.

[I_M4_AU 7,762]

24 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

You're missing the point that there has been one example of Auburn continuing with an established QB and changes at running back and offensive line, exactly like is going to happen this year, and we started the season without a hiccup on offense because we kept the previous years offensive identity and just plugged in new bodies. An offense is built around it's QB, so offensive identity changes when you bring in a new QB. 2015, the identity had to switch from read-option to more of a balanced run-pass because Jeremy was not a running QB. 2016, Gus tried to go back to more of a read-option, but John just didn't have it. This year, we had a new OC who balanced the offense and a QB who hadn't taken a meaningful snap in over a year and had to adjust to a system that he said was far more complicated than what he had previously run. 2014 wasn't an anomaly, it was the only example of the scenario we are currently looking at.

As for Sean, I'm not bashing him. I'm stating why Gus didn't want to play him.  He had a recurring disciplinary issue that finally ended up biting him in the butt and apparently Gus didn't want to take the risk of it happening with him leading the team. I can totally understand that and I know from his history that Gus did everything he could to help him get past it. I would be willing to bet that Gus eventually "rode him until he broke" because it became apparent that it was our only chance to win, and let's face it, that's all the majority of the vocal fans and the PTB want... wins. No one would be complaining about how many carries Kerryon had, if he hadn't be injured and we hadn't lost, but when we lose, people start looking for ways to throw blame.

We might keep the same offensive identity, I won’t argue that, but we can’t count on a productive OL or RB that is as productive as KJ at the start of the season.  Just from past experience we will struggle.  In 2014 we, as fans, knew CAP was the man and had no worries, this year the fan base has little confidence in what we have seen from the RB coming back.  This coupled with the question mark and past performance of the OL in early games could put more pressure on JS and JS does not move well in the pocket.

Regarding the second paragraph, the problem is not how much he rides his players, unless it's obvious that are hurt, it’s the lack of a reliable back up that I have an issue with.  He has ridden his horses hard without regard to any kind of contingency plan as to who is next.  The UGA 2016 game was Gus’ low point.  It doesn’t seem like he is fixing the problem, it’s a trust issue with him.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

17 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

I won’t argue that, but we can’t count on a productive OL or RB that is as productive as KJ at the start of the season. Just from past experience we will struggle.  In 2014 we, as fans, knew CAP was the man and had no worries, this year the fan base has little confidence in what we have seen from the RB coming back.  This coupled with the question mark and past performance of the OL in early games could put more pressure on JS and JS does not move well in the pocket.

I totally agree... especially about the O-Line. I have more faith in running back, just because Horton has faced every setback in the book and never failed to produce a 1000 yard rusher, even when he's working in the 3rd and 4th string, but we don't have an obvious #1, so there is concern. I expect Barrett to be the next big thing in blue and orange and Asa might be the next freshman phenom, but that's more gut than fact. I, like many others, have not been happy with our inability to land the top backs year in and year out, especially with our coach's track record.

17 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Regarding the second paragraph, the problem is not how much he rides his players, unless it's obvious that are hurt, it’s the lack of a reliable back up that I have an issue with.  He has ridden his horses hard without regard to any kind of contingency plan as to who is next.  The UGA 2016 game was Gus’ low point.  It doesn’t seem like he is fixing the problem, it’s a trust issue with him.

Yes, we are still trying to build depth... I talked about this in another thread, but if you look back at 2012, we had so many holes that had to be filled. Looking ahead, we still have some pretty glaring holes, but we've filled receiver, linebacker, and QB pretty well, even with unexpected attrition, and our defensive line is in full reload mode. I hope we can continue to build depth and fill in our defensive backfield and our offensive line, but we still have a ways to go before we catch up with our rivals and their recruiting machines.

As for the trust issue, the key to seeing the field for Gus is protection, plain and simple. If anyone playing for him hasn't figured that out by now, then I don't know that they can be helped. You block and you don't turn over the ball, you play. You fail on either of those points and you don't.

[Randman5000 4,223]

On 1/10/2018 at 5:55 PM, FUZZYAUFAN said:

I was thinking about the below scenario a couple weeks ago but just looked at the SEC schedule for next year to see if it was even possible. Here it is.

Florida wins the East beating Georgia and going 12-0

Georgia beats Auburn and finishes seconds in East at 11-1

Alabama goes 11-1 with only loss to Auburn. Finishes second in West

Auburn goes 11-1 and wins West

Auburn beats Florida in SEC Championship. 

SEC champ Auburn and one loss Florida, Georgia and Alabama all make playoff as all other conference champs have two losses. 

#1 seed Auburn beats #4 seed Georgia and #3 seed Alabam beats #2 seed Florida. 

Auburn beats Alabama to win National Championship. 

Yes, I know the odds would be astronomical. Wonder what odds you could get on a bet with above scenario. 

Just having some fun at the beginning of the long off season  

 

We lose to uga but beat alabama... They win SEC West , but we get into the playoffs with one loss. Mmw.

[Newbomb 193]

21 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

I agree with everything up until the defeatist attitude about Georgia. It will definitely be a fight next year, but they are losing Chubb, Michel, and Smith, arguably the three main reasons they were so good this year. Fromm is a good QB, but he's not carry the team good. I'm more worried about them in 2019 when their current recruiting class has a year under their belts.

bama is also a toss up. As you mentioned, they weren't that great this year, as the Iron Bowl and the need for some officiating help to win the championship proved, and they are losing some key personnel... but Tua is probably the best QB they've had in as long as I can remember. He's going to be a problem for everyone.

Finally, Gus did not choke in the National Championship. The team lost that one to another very good team, and I still stand by the fact that, had we not had a special teams player pull a hammy (nothing anyone could have predicted or prevented) we would have won.

Georgia takes major hits on the defensive side due to Seniors and Juniors leaving.  Offensively they lose their RB's but they have had excellent recruiting classes so plug in play there.  The game will be won with our rebuilt O/Oline vs. their rebuilt D imho.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

38 minutes ago, Newbomb said:

Georgia takes major hits on the defensive side due to Seniors and Juniors leaving.  Offensively they lose their RB's but they have had excellent recruiting classes so plug in play there.  The game will be won with our rebuilt O/Oline vs. their rebuilt D imho.

I think you're totally right about the lines being the key. I'm hoping their incoming backs require a little seasoning, so we don't have to face them at full potential until they are in Jordan-Hare.  I know... they are probably too good for that, but one can hope. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

20 hours ago, Barnacle said:

I'm much more concerned about our offensive line developing an identity in the Spring and Summer than our offense as a whole. We had a lot of experience up front going into Clemson and played one of the worst games I can remember in pass protection. Mostly all of that experience is now gone. 

You know I'm not one to lay it all on a coach, but I'm just not sold on Hand. From a personality standpoint, I can definitely see how he is an asset, because he is the anti-Gus, and I think we need that when it comes to relating to the players, but from a coaching standpoint, he hasn't sold me in the slightest, especially when you continually see former players pointing out issues with our fundamentals when it comes to blocking. I really hope there's just something I don't know abut his ability vs. the product on the field, and we aren't looking at another "barbecue boys" scenario.

[McLoofus 35,182]

23 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

You know I'm not one to lay it all on a coach, but I'm just not sold on Hand. From a personality standpoint, I can definitely see how he is an asset, because he is the anti-Gus, and I think we need that when it comes to relating to the players, but from a coaching standpoint, he hasn't sold me in the slightest, especially when you continually see former players pointing out issues with our fundamentals when it comes to blocking. I really hope there's just something I don't know abut his ability vs. the product on the field, and we aren't looking at another "barbecue boys" scenario.

I've stood by CHH, even as recently as this past season, but the end of the season has me recalibrating my opinion. 

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

This isn’t just a hope. I truely belive we will hit on all cylinders. I think a lot of folks are under estimating or OL . While we lose some experience I think we have some really good talent that will move up. Hopefully the spring and summer will give them time to jell. With JS returning I think we will not only know our starting offense by the time fall practice starts but Chip will have his offense determined also. I think that our RB situation is also being under estimated because Gus stayed with KJ but I think we have a running back or two who will step up. Defense front 7 will be as good as this year DBs will actually be more talented than last just less experience. Overall I think 10-2 to be the bottem end with a possible 12-0 if we can make it through some early games and improve all year. 

[murpjf88 506]

On 1/11/2018 at 11:09 AM, Zeek said:

 

I'm confident against Hurts, not so much when it comes to their rising sophomore quarterback. Again, I'm not confident our Offensive Line will come together well enough. I will say that Alabama was surprisingly weak this year to win the championship and they're losing a lot of key spots next year.

You know what's funny? Alabama will have more turnover than Auburn like they do most years yet, Saban will have the Tide in poll position for a return trip to the playoffs  while Gus will end his season talking about learning experiences, growth processes and maturity because That's what below average underdog head coaches who have no business coaching for a college institution from a premier power five conference do.

 

[WarEagleChemE 99]

Dude, don't get your hopes up. They'll only get gussed down.

[WarDamnEagleWDE 12,737]

I'm going to go ahead and get this out here. The OL is going to be bad. Especially to start the season. We are scrambling trying to find some grad transfers to help out. 

[AUApostle 7,648]

9 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

I'm going to go ahead and get this out here. The OL is going to be bad. Especially to start the season. We are scrambling trying to find some grad transfers to help out. 

Huge concern.  Folks praise Hand for putting together a functional unit with multiple injuries happening.  I think the unit should have excelled from game 1 because of the senior talent and diverse experience the unit already had.  I had high expectations for them in 17 and they just weren't consistent.  We're taking away the experience factor in 2018...so, yes, we should be very concerned.

[ellitor 33,062]

3 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

I'm going to go ahead and get this out here. The OL is going to be bad. Especially to start the season. We are scrambling trying to find some grad transfers to help out. 

Yep! And I just don't understand it. Hand has known what he has & hasn't had on the OL for a while. There's been no shocking departures. He has got to evaluate, plan, & recruit better IMO. He should not have to be scrambling this late in a recruiting class like he is.

[WarDamnEagleWDE 12,737]

Just now, ellitor said:

Yep! And I just don't understand it. Hand has known what he has & hasn't had on the OL for a while. There's been no shocking departures. He has got to evaluate, plan, & recruit better IMO. He should not have to be scrambling this late in a recruiting class like he is.

Yep. Absolute swing and a miss on the JUCO OT's. All of them. Out tackle position is . 

[ellitor 33,062]

6 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Yep. Absolute swing and a miss on the JUCO OT's. All of them. Out tackle position is . 

Yup. Gotta land Gouraige & pray Tega & Ashley develop & stay healthy.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 12:41 AM, Randman5000 said:

We lose to uga but beat alabama... They win SEC West , but we get into the playoffs with one loss. Mmw.

Not possible.  If we lose to UGA but beat Bama, both us and Bama end up 7-1 in SEC play.  We would win the West on the head-to-head tiebreak.

[AUsince72 11,084]

So, question here, and I'm serious... Not just slinging arrows...

With all of the concern re: the O-Line and Hand's inability to coach them up... What are we to make of Horton?

He has made a name for having 1K yd rushers each year but it concerns me that when KJ was hurting and KP was nowhere to be found, AU couldn't cobble together a backfield with at least 3 more 3* & 4* backs on the roster...especially by the end of the season when they ALL had a full year under their belts.

Did Horton not coach them up or is this just the stubbornness of Gus? 

Shouldn't these guys have been ready to produce... at least better than a broken down, one-armed KJ, down the stretch?

[Randman5000 4,223]

45 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Not possible.  If we lose to UGA but beat Bama, both us and Bama end up 7-1 in SEC play.  We would win the West on the head-to-head tiebreak.

Dang. I take it back....

I want to say I see a scenario where we get in without winning the west, but I just don't see us beating uga away. 

[WarDamnEagleWDE 12,737]

10 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

So, question here, and I'm serious... Not just slinging arrows...

With all of the concern re: the O-Line and Hand's inability to coach them up... What are we to make of Horton?

He has made a name for having 1K yd rushers each year but it concerns me that when KJ was hurting and KP was nowhere to be found, AU couldn't cobble together a backfield with at least 3 more 3* & 4* backs on the roster...especially by the end of the season when they ALL had a full year under their belts.

Did Horton not coach them up or is this just the stubbornness of Gus? 

Shouldn't these guys have been ready to produce... at least better than a broken down, one-armed KJ, down the stretch?

Gus made these kinda of calls on who plays. At least the skill positions. 

[I_M4_AU 7,762]

2 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Gus made these kinda of calls on who plays. At least the skill positions. 

Thanks for the insight.  One would think Gus would know his skill position players well enough to know the cross over point as to a player’s effectiveness with regard to the next man.  So far it’s “let him rumble till he fumbles”.

[AUsince72 11,084]

48 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Gus made these kinda of calls on who plays. At least the skill positions. 

Thanks for the reply. 

Continues to solidify my opinion that Gus is still the actual OC.

[WeagleAU 594]

Does this scenario include Gus still being the HC?...But seriously,  I’m just looking for Auburn to have a back-to-back double digit wins in a  season.  I’ve never seen Auburn do that in my lifetime.  Gus’s inconsistency as a HC does not give me much hope for that scenario, much less making it to the playoffs.

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

1 hour ago, I_M4_AU said:

Thanks for the insight.  One would think Gus would know his skill position players well enough to know the cross over point as to a player’s effectiveness with regard to the next man.  So far it’s “let him rumble till he fumbles”.

1

That's why it's hard for me to get too excited with the RBs we're getting with this class because our staff has not truly evaluated the younger RBs from this past season. Then you add in an inexperienced OL. It's just very perplexing as to what the heck are we actually doing in the Spring.

For coaches not to have a solid understanding of what we have on the OL and at RB until 4 games into the season is unacceptable. There will always be question marks but we just seem flat out clueless. If that's the case...and it has been with the case with Gus..we need to stop scheduling these primetime schools game 1 of the season. This is exactly why I chalked up game 1 against Washington as a L. We have the talent to be a playoff team in 2018 but we can't keep dropping early games we shouldn't just because we're not prepared and then having to win out the rest of the way to get a shot at the playoffs. It puts way too much pressure on the team. 

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

On 1/11/2018 at 10:53 AM, AuCivilEng1 said:

I actually expect a slight regression offensively for the Washington game. I think the offense will be very good by week 3 or 4, but I know better than to expect a Gus team to be on it offensively in game 1. 

You got that right! Washington's top RB Gaskin is also coming back as well. Peterson will have them ready.