doverstutts

#8 Auburn vs Texas A&M

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Kentucky losing to a UT team last night put more pressure on us to win the a&m game.   With the updykes losing last night to moo state, we moved closer to securing the SEC championship, but UT still worries me,even though we hold the tie-breaker on them.   We are going to lose some games before the season is over, we just have to play loose, and play the game between the ears now, and expand the lead when given the chance.    The way UT is playing, we ain't going to have many chances.   We are close, but we ain't there yet.         close

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It's a huge game. This is the type of opponent the critics have said Auburn will struggle with because of the size disparity. This is a game they think we will be most tested. It's a a big chance to make a statement about how good this team is and can be.

IMO we match up surprisingly well against them. We obviously have a disadvantage on the defensive end in the front court. Their size has been well noted, and it's their strength. We're going to concede a good amount of points in the paint tonight. Just no real way around it. Just need to pressure their guards as much as possible to make those post entry passes as difficult as we can. They also rebound extremely well, not surprising there either. 

But they are prone to turnovers, they don't shoot FTs well, they aren't a great shooting team (especially from the perimeter), and they don't defend small teams well IMO. They haven't won a road game since November, going 0-5. They have a tendency to give up a lot of 3s. Florida, LSU, and Kansas all hit 12+ 3s against them. And Florida and Kansas play similar styles to us. aTm also is 2-6 on the season when allowing 70+ points. They're 0-6 since conference play started when allowing 70+. They struggle to guard small teams that can put 4 guard-like bodies on the court. Their 3/4/5 guys are really big/long but not that quick and don't defend great on the perimeter. Heron and Murray could have a lot of success tonight beating their guys off the dribble. And Mac and Spencer could reap the benefit from some of that since aTm loves to help off on penetration looking for blocks but don't rotate down that well to take away the backside post pass. I think any of our 1-4 guys can win their matchups and drive past their men. We just need to make good decisions when that happens.

I like the fact this this game is at home. I like that we're a good 3-point shooting team on our home court against a bigger, slower team. I like that we're going to space them out and make their bigs guard on the perimeter. I don't like the size disadvantage on the defensive end. I think aTm has a difficult choice to make tonight. Do they stay big and hope they can overpower us and frustrate us offensively with their size? Or do they go smaller to try to match up with us knowing their bigger lineup makes them vulnerable defensively? Should be a great game tonight.

Edited by boomstick
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3 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

Line seems a bit steep at -7.

BPI gives us an 80% chance to win tonight. Seems the metrics and analytics love us in this game. I'm not as confident as Vegas or BPI.

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12 minutes ago, boomstick said:

It's a huge game. This is the type of opponent the critics have said Auburn will struggle with because of the size disparity. This is a game they think we will be most tested. It's a a big chance to make a statement about how good this team is and can be.

IMO we match up surprisingly well against them. We obviously have a disadvantage on the defensive end in the front court. Their size has been well noted, and it's their strength. We're going to concede a good amount of points in the paint tonight. Just no real way around it. Just need to pressure their guards as much as possible to make those post entry passes as difficult as we can. They also rebound extremely well, not surprising there either. 

But they are prone to turnovers, they don't shoot FTs well, they aren't a great shooting team (especially from the perimeter), and they don't defend small teams well IMO. They haven't won a road game since November, going 0-5. They have a tendency to give up a lot of 3s. Florida, LSU, and Kansas all hit 12+ 3s against them. And Florida and Kansas play similar styles to us. aTm also is 2-6 on the season when allowing 70+ points. They're 0-6 since conference play started when allowing 70+. They struggle to guard small teams that can put 4 guard-like bodies on the court. Their 3/4/5 guys are really big/long but not that quick and don't defend great on the perimeter. Heron and Murray could have a lot of success tonight beating their guys off the dribble. And Mac and Spencer could reap the benefit from some of that since aTm loves to help off on penetration looking for blocks but don't rotate down that well to take away the backside post pass. I think any of our 1-4 guys can win their matchups and drive past their men. We just need to make good decisions when that happens.

I like the fact this this game is at home. I like that we're a good 3-point shooting team on our home court against a bigger, slower team. I like that we're going to space them out and make their bigs guard on the perimeter. I don't like the size disadvantage on the defensive end. I think aTm has a difficult choice to make tonight. Do they stay big and hope they can overpower us and frustrate us offensively with their size? Or do they go smaller to try to match up with us knowing their bigger lineup makes them vulnerable defensively? Should be a great game tonight.

A great analysis. Enjoyed reading this post.

If we get off to a fast start, things can get ugly for the Aggies. And I think that'll be the difference maker in this game.

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Auburn got off to a hot start on Saturday and kept shooting lights out to get the win over Vandy, but the grind never stops in the SEC. There are no easy games and tonights will definately be a challenge. Auburn (21-2, 9-1) takes on a surging Texas A&M (15-8, 4-6) in Auburn Arena. The Aggies have won their last two defeating South Carolina and Arkansas and they are desperate for a big win. After starting the season ranked in the top ten and beating West Virginia, the Aggies lost their first five SEC games before winning their a nail-biter against Ole Miss. They’re on the edge of the tournament and a road win against Auburn would be huge. Speaking of huge- this team is big with 3 players 6’9+ so Auburn will need to continue to shoot and apply the pressure to get the win. Should be a great game. 

Tipoff is at 8PM (CT) on ESPN2. 

War Eagle!

Edited by Auhud08
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1 hour ago, boomstick said:

Posted this in the other thread, but I'll post it here too since I think it's relevant.

It's a huge game. This is the type of opponent the critics have said Auburn will struggle with because of the size disparity. This is a game they think we will be most tested. It's a a big chance to make a statement about how good this team is and can be.

IMO we match up surprisingly well against them. We obviously have a disadvantage on the defensive end in the front court. Their size has been well noted, and it's their strength. We're going to concede a good amount of points in the paint tonight. Just no real way around it. Just need to pressure their guards as much as possible to make those post entry passes as difficult as we can. They also rebound extremely well, not surprising there either. 

But they are prone to turnovers, they don't shoot FTs well, they aren't a great shooting team (especially from the perimeter), and they don't defend small teams well IMO. They haven't won a road game since November, going 0-5. They have a tendency to give up a lot of 3s. Florida, LSU, and Kansas all hit 12+ 3s against them. And Florida and Kansas play similar styles to us. aTm also is 2-6 on the season when allowing 70+ points. They're 0-6 since conference play started when allowing 70+. They struggle to guard small teams that can put 4 guard-like bodies on the court. Their 3/4/5 guys are really big/long but not that quick and don't defend great on the perimeter. Heron and Murray could have a lot of success tonight beating their guys off the dribble. And Mac and Spencer could reap the benefit from some of that since aTm loves to help off on penetration looking for blocks but don't rotate down that well to take away the backside post pass. I think any of our 1-4 guys can win their matchups and drive past their men. We just need to make good decisions when that happens.

I like the fact this this game is at home. I like that we're a good 3-point shooting team on our home court against a bigger, slower team. I like that we're going to space them out and make their bigs guard on the perimeter. I don't like the size disadvantage on the defensive end. I think aTm has a difficult choice to make tonight. Do they stay big and hope they can overpower us and frustrate us offensively with their size? Or do they go smaller to try to match up with us knowing their bigger lineup makes them vulnerable defensively? Should be a great game tonight.

Thanks for this breakdown. I like the possible positive matchups for us you mention. In particular them not playing as well on the road and them giving up lots of 3 pointers. If we shoot well from outside our crowd will go bonkers and hopefully it will snowball (in a good way) from there for us

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1 hour ago, boomstick said:

Posted this in the other thread, but I'll post it here too since I think it's relevant.

It's a huge game. This is the type of opponent the critics have said Auburn will struggle with because of the size disparity. This is a game they think we will be most tested. It's a a big chance to make a statement about how good this team is and can be.

IMO we match up surprisingly well against them. We obviously have a disadvantage on the defensive end in the front court. Their size has been well noted, and it's their strength. We're going to concede a good amount of points in the paint tonight. Just no real way around it. Just need to pressure their guards as much as possible to make those post entry passes as difficult as we can. They also rebound extremely well, not surprising there either. 

But they are prone to turnovers, they don't shoot FTs well, they aren't a great shooting team (especially from the perimeter), and they don't defend small teams well IMO. They haven't won a road game since November, going 0-5. They have a tendency to give up a lot of 3s. Florida, LSU, and Kansas all hit 12+ 3s against them. And Florida and Kansas play similar styles to us. aTm also is 2-6 on the season when allowing 70+ points. They're 0-6 since conference play started when allowing 70+. They struggle to guard small teams that can put 4 guard-like bodies on the court. Their 3/4/5 guys are really big/long but not that quick and don't defend great on the perimeter. Heron and Murray could have a lot of success tonight beating their guys off the dribble. And Mac and Spencer could reap the benefit from some of that since aTm loves to help off on penetration looking for blocks but don't rotate down that well to take away the backside post pass. I think any of our 1-4 guys can win their matchups and drive past their men. We just need to make good decisions when that happens.

I like the fact this this game is at home. I like that we're a good 3-point shooting team on our home court against a bigger, slower team. I like that we're going to space them out and make their bigs guard on the perimeter. I don't like the size disadvantage on the defensive end. I think aTm has a difficult choice to make tonight. Do they stay big and hope they can overpower us and frustrate us offensively with their size? Or do they go smaller to try to match up with us knowing their bigger lineup makes them vulnerable defensively? Should be a great game tonight.

Thanks for the analysis.....as for their size, seems that big teams that we have faced eventually have to go small to keep up with our speed.   Early on their size might hurt us but as you suggest, our pressing defense and speed down the court on missed shots will pay off.   Looking forward to a rowdy crowd tonight...

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Just now, AU64 said:

Thanks for the analysis.....as for their size, seems that big teams that we have faced eventually have to go small to keep up with our speed.   Early on their size might hurt us but as you suggest, our pressing defense and speed down the court on missed shots will pay off.   Looking forward to a rowdy crowd tonight...

Yeah, we've forced other teams to match up to us to keep up. Vandy did it. LSU did it. 

aTm has a big in Trocha-Morelos that could be a problem for us. He's similar to Jontay Porter and different from the other aTm bigs. He can step out and shoot the 3, passes well, and can play/defend the 4 or 5. He's more versatile than Davis or Williams in his offensive game. I could see them going to him with Starks/Wilson, Gilder, Flagg, Hogg, and T-M as their small lineup. That would probably match up better with us and wouldn't sacrifice all their size inside. 

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This game definitely scares me but aTm has not played well on the road. Some against teams they should beat. They have 1 road win this season at USC in late November. In 4 of their 5 losses they were beaten by double digits. Also good luck to them handling our press & slowing down our Guards.

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This game was always a big ??? on my brain since aTm is just so long and athletic. AU has delt with similar but this team is next level. I am not chalking up a loss, but it's very much in play here with the way this matchup looks. Going to be a big one if AU can get it.

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I think as long as we show up ready to play, aren't flat, and do not have a very bad shooting night, the 80% is about right. I think our pressure can wear them down and get us turnovers. That's the funny thing about basketball though, sometimes you can just have bad games. I think the home court keeps that from happening. As long as AU takes care of our own business, we get the W.

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I hears something about aTm's struggles in SEC play being attributable, at least in part, to injuries, and that now they're getting healthy and we've seen some good outings from them the last couple of weeks.

Therefore, I'm not taking much solace in the "they haven't played well on the road" thing.

 

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10 minutes ago, looney said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I hears something about aTm's struggles in SEC play being attributable, at least in part, to injuries, and that now they're getting healthy and we've seen some good outings from them the last couple of weeks.

Therefore, I'm not taking much solace in the "they haven't played well on the road" thing.

 

Exactly

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Just now, looney said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I hears something about aTm's struggles in SEC play being attributable, at least in part, to injuries, and that now they're getting healthy and we've seen some good outings from them the last couple of weeks.

Therefore, I'm not taking much solace in the "they haven't played well on the road" thing.

 

They had a couple players suspended and 2 who missed some time at the start of conference play. Hogg, Williams, Gilder, and Wilson all missed at least one game at the start of conference play. But they've had everybody back for the last 7 games (4-0 at home, 0-3 on the road), and they were missing one player who is now not a starter at Kentucky. Again, they've played really well at home in those 8 games with their entire roster, but they've lost to Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, and Kansas on the road.

This doesn't mean they can't come in and beat us, but this isn't a game Auburn shouldn't win. We're the favorite here for a reason. aTm is a talented squad, but so are we. And we're playing at home in a place where we have been playing really well for the last 2-3 games.

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JMO this is the kind of game that will help tell if AU is ready for the big time.....Aggies back to full strength and from what I saw in a couple recent games....only part of a couple games......but enough to classify them as  physical bunch who will give Spencer and McLemore a rough time inside.  Can't let themselves be manhandled and can't get into foul trouble either.  . 

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40 minutes ago, looney said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I hears something about aTm's struggles in SEC play being attributable, at least in part, to injuries, and that now they're getting healthy and we've seen some good outings from them the last couple of weeks.

Therefore, I'm not taking much solace in the "they haven't played well on the road" thing.

 

Even after getting healthy & players back they still had a relatively bad loss @ LSU recently.

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52 minutes ago, looney said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I hears something about aTm's struggles in SEC play being attributable, at least in part, to injuries, and that now they're getting healthy and we've seen some good outings from them the last couple of weeks.

Therefore, I'm not taking much solace in the "they haven't played well on the road" thing.

 

correct

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27 minutes ago, doverstutts said:

correct

agree....it's typically about matchups......and that will be the issue tonight IMO. 

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16 minutes ago, AU64 said:

agree....it's typically about matchups......and that will be the issue tonight IMO. 

i really think we play small and run,run,run.....i don't know,with their size, if we can afford to do that, though.....A&M will pound it inside tonight and try to get our inside guys in foul trouble....hmph !...they don't need any special effort to get them in foul trouble, they'll do that on their own....press and try to tire them out....A&m is a good team, remember, they were ranked inside the top 5 earlier in the year

Edited by doverstutts

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22 minutes ago, doverstutts said:

i really think we play small and run,run,run.....i don't know,with their size, if we can afford to do that, though.....A&M will pound it inside tonight and try to get our inside guys in foul trouble....hmph !...they don't need any special effort to get them in foul trouble, they'll do that on their own....press and try to tire them out....A&m is a good team, remember, they were ranked inside the top 5 earlier in the year

.they don't need any special effort to get them in foul trouble, they'll do that on their own. :)

True....we have been able to force some bigs to go small to handle our speed.  If the gunners like Brown are hitting on the quick breaks,  the aggies won't be able to keep up with our offense.     

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