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SCTiger2011

Time for the homestretch

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7 games left.  Assuming Bryce is back, I feel great about this team, but this is a dangerous stretch and the margin for error just got slim.  Kentucky, at UF, and UAT all pose their own threats without even mentioning the UGA, SCAR, and Arkansas road games.

Meanwhile UT is really rounding into form and their remaining schedule looks very manageable (includes 2 games against UGA and UF at home).  Kentucky feels safely enough back right now with 5 SEC losses, but UT is right there if this team were to slip up for two games against UK/UF/UAT or if Bryce is out for an extended amount of time.

I think AU still navigates 14-4/13-5 at worst, but UT is making me nervous.  I never root for the team in Tuscaloosa, but I have no shame in pulling for Tennessee to get beat in West Vance Saturday afternoon.  Like I mentioned in a post last week, this season has the potential to be about much more than our rival getting in a field of 68.  If the "consequence" of them getting a middle seed in a national tournament they have no shot of winning is Auburn securing a basketball trophy for the first time in over 15 years, I ask "where do I sign" on that proposition 12 times out of 10.  

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JMO.....this is where the RPI formula screws you....a one point loss at home dings your record same as a blowout.....us and Villanova too I guess.

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6 hours ago, AU64 said:

JMO.....this is where the RPI formula screws you....a one point loss at home dings your record same as a blowout.....us and Villanova too I guess.

On the other side of that. You could have a game comfortably won and up by 30 and clear the bench and only win by 15 and that also has very little indication of the game when taking score into account. Or a team down by 15 could give up in the last few minutes and the margin reaches 30. I'm not sure margin of victory should matter because there are so many factors outside of winning/losing that can impact the final score margin.

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Just now, WDEKC said:

On the other side of that. You could have a game comfortably won and up by 30 and clear the bench and only win by 15 and that also has very little indication of the game when taking score into account. Or a team down by 15 could give up in the last few minutes and the margin reaches 30. I'm not sure margin of victory should matter because there are so many factors outside of winning/losing that can impact the final score margin.

True...but if it mattered, I think teams would play differently in the situations you descibed....so maybe get more credit for beating the spread. :-\

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1 hour ago, AU64 said:

True...but if it mattered, I think teams would play differently in the situations you descibed....so maybe get more credit for beating the spread. :-\

The only time margin seems useful is as a tiebreaker in standings or round robin/group tournament. Otherwise, it's such a hard thing to quantify as being meaningful.

Edited by WDEKC

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IMO we could finish anywhere between 15-3 and 11-7 right now. A lot depends on Bryce coming back soon, being healthy, and not having this injury mess with his shot. And we need the bench to come back around to their earlier form. We need more production from Mitchell and Dunbar and Chuma. 

Just based on what we know about Bryce today, I’ll say we finish 4-3 in the last 7 so 13-5 in the SEC. Probably has us finishing second the the league behind UT and a top 4 seed in the NCAAT, but that would still be a fantastic season. 

Edited by boomstick
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