Tuesday's Texas Primary Election

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Maybe some of you Texas guys can offer more insight but I thought this was ans interesting analysis.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/7/17092410/texas-primary-2018-turnout-evan-smith

[AU64 10,122]

15 hours ago, Proud Tiger said:

Maybe some of you Texas guys can offer more insight but I thought this was ans interesting analysis.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/7/17092410/texas-primary-2018-turnout-evan-smith

And interesting too that the pre-election day hype for a blue wave turned out to be much over-stated. 

Just wondering where the basis for that expectation came from?  polls?....or wishful thinking by the media?   

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Nothing surprising.

1) It was a primary.  The vast majority of eligible voters don't participate in primaries.

2) Texas is still a red state.  I live in the "Blue Dot" of Austin, but overall, this is still a very conservative state.

I'm more interested in general polls when it comes to the fall and some House races.  There are a few, especially in the suburbs, that could get interesting.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

42 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Nothing surprising.

1) It was a primary.  The vast majority of eligible voters don't participate in primaries.

2) Texas is still a red state.  I live in the "Blue Dot" of Austin, but overall, this is still a very conservative state.

I'm more interested in general polls when it comes to the fall and some House races.  There are a few, especially in the suburbs, that could get interesting.

I thought I saw it was record turnout for a primary. True?

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

48 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

I thought I saw it was record turnout for a primary. True?

It was, but it's still a primary.  On average, only about 20-25% of eligible voters participate in primaries.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

3 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

It was, but it's still a primary.  On average, only about 20-25% of eligible voters participate in primaries.

I understand. But you don't interpret that the larger than avg. turnout indicates a stronger than usual interest in this off year election?

Note: My editing this post was to correct my spelling of election. I had it as erection. Pretty close and not much difference these days since some get an erection by hating Trump.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

27 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

I understand. But you don't interpret that the larger than avg. turnout indicates a stronger than usual interest in this off year election?

Note: My editing this post was to correct my spelling of election. I had it as erection. Pretty close and not much difference these days

1) It shows strong interest among the bases, but what's unknown is if that translates to the independent or swing voter.

2) LOL at the erection comment.

[homersapien 11,353]

2 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

1) It shows strong interest among the bases, but what's unknown is if that translates to the independent or swing voter.

2) LOL at the erection comment.

Freudian slip. 

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

The other 75 to 80% of us are waiting on the two parties to screw things up enough for us to leave the States and return to a Republic.

[maxwere 82]

I expect Trump (just as Obama did) will increase voter turnout on the democratic side virtually everywhere (Dems to have a pretty good Nov).  That being said, Texas result was much ado about nothing as the major republican candidates are (understatedly) firmly entrenched.  Voting the GOP primary was a waste of time if your only concern is federal politics (99% of this country).

[AuburnNTexas 7,127]

One key factor when looking at Hispanic's in Texas is that many have been here for many many generations and many have non-Hispanic and Hispanic Heritage.  As such their views are mixed just as others are.  As stated in the article 40% of them voted for a Republican but what is so surprising about that probably 35% of the Non-Hispanic community voted Democratic. The media spends to much time trying to group people as if all whites, all blacks and all Hispanics are the same.

The Hispanic community is very religious and conservative (Anti-abortion, smaller government, balanced budget)  on the whole (now I am making generalizations just like the media) they probably have more in common with the Republican party than the Democratic Party. Large numbers of Hispanics in Texas are middle class and upper class again why so may here vote Republican. Many Republican Law makers in Texas are Hispanic.

If the Republicans could find a better way to deal with immigration issue and reach out to Hispanics they could pick up a huge chunk of the Hispanic vote throughout the country. I honestly believe that one reason the Democrats did not fix the Immigration policy in Obama's first 2 years when they had super majority and pushed through Obamacare was it kept the immigration issue as a divide to keep the Hispanic vote away from the Republican party.

I am speaking from personal knowledge as my wife is Hispanic and very Republican. She is more republican and more conservative than I am on all issues except guns which she would limit access to. She is an immigrant who started out Democratic when we married and as she read and listened to people from both parties she slowly moved to the Republican party. She realized that most of her views aligned more with the Republican Party than the Democratic Party.

[AUFAN78 3,889]

On 3/8/2018 at 8:56 AM, AU64 said:

And interesting too that the pre-election day hype for a blue wave turned out to be much over-stated. 

Just wondering where the basis for that expectation came from?  polls?....or wishful thinking by the media?   

Polls. Meh.

[Grumps 3,693]

16 hours ago, AuburnNTexas said:

She realized that most of her views aligned more with the Republican Party than the Democratic Party.

Now if only the views of the Republican Party would align with the Republican Party! You know, things like smaller government and more individual rights.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

On 3/8/2018 at 8:56 AM, AU64 said:

And interesting too that the pre-election day hype for a blue wave turned out to be much over-stated. 

Just wondering where the basis for that expectation came from?  polls?....or wishful thinking by the media?   

This is a misunderstanding of the "blue wave" concept.  You can't have that wave in a primary where you are only picking which people are going to run.  The general elections in November are when we will find out if there is a democratic wave or not.

[AU64 10,122]

3 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

This is a misunderstanding of the "blue wave" concept.  You can't have that wave in a primary where you are only picking which people are going to run.  The general elections in November are when we will find out if there is a democratic wave or not.

JMO...it is not a misunderstanding....it is wishful thinking on the part of some-many in the media trying to promote a groundswell of support against DT.  You are correct....there is no wave of even a ripple until there is actually a general e!ection.  Too much being made of these isolated replacement elections...JMO.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

2 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

This is a misunderstanding of the "blue wave" concept.  You can't have that wave in a primary where you are only picking which people are going to run.  The general elections in November are when we will find out if there is a democratic wave or not.

How? Don’t they have like 25+ seats to defend while republicans have (6)???

[AU64 10,122]

3 hours ago, NolaAuTiger said:

How? Don’t they have like 25+ seats to defend while republicans have (6)???

A number of folks in this country are convinced that many former DT voters are eager to repudiate their 2016 votes and will go "blue" when they get the chance. 

I keep hearing this almost every day from national media and Dem politicos....and as I questioned above, just wondering what makes them think this?  

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

4 hours ago, NolaAuTiger said:

How? Don’t they have like 25+ seats to defend while republicans have (6)???

In the Senate, yes.  But every seat in the House is up.  And all that really needs to happen is for one chamber to go blue to make life a living hell for Trump.  My point to 64 though was that its too early declare a wave or not, because these are merely primaries.  Early indications in special elections since 2016 show that Dems are making gains, but the extent or even if they hold thosr gains won't be known until November.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

19 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

In the Senate, yes.  But every seat in the House is up.  And all that really needs to happen is for one chamber to go blue to make life a living hell for Trump.  My point to 64 though was that its too early declare a wave or not, because these are merely primaries.  Early indications in special elections since 2016 show that Dems are making gains, but the extent or even if they hold thosr gains won't be known until November.

Understood. I thought you were referencing the senate. It’ll be an interesting November.

[AU64 10,122]

6 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

In the Senate, yes.  But every seat in the House is up.  And all that really needs to happen is for one chamber to go blue to make life a living hell for Trump.  My point to 64 though was that its too early declare a wave or not, because these are merely primaries.  Early indications in special elections since 2016 show that Dems are making gains, but the extent or even if they hold thosr gains won't be known until November.

Dems made a few gains but you are politically aware enough to know that about 98% of elections are local...and Dems will not be able to pile all that money and strategic support into all districts so they will have to make a decision about how many districts they consider to be in play like they did in those few they won recently. 

They can cherry pick a few districts but JMO, local candidates are not going to make up much ground if their candidates' only reason for running is to oppose the DT agenda. ....thus they gotta offer something different and better to their constituents.  Right now, the only national message has been to oppose the tax cut ....which is probably going to come back and bite them. 

[AuburnNTexas 7,127]

On 3/11/2018 at 7:49 AM, Brad_ATX said:

This is a misunderstanding of the "blue wave" concept.  You can't have that wave in a primary where you are only picking which people are going to run.  The general elections in November are when we will find out if there is a democratic wave or not.

The Blue Wave was because in the Early voting the Democrats had larger numbers than in the past for Mid-Term primary and the Republican numbers were down from previous Mid-term Primary numbers for once the press was actually being accurate. The Democrats actually had more Early Voters than the Republicans. The difference was that after final days vote Republicans came out in very large numbers and turned the tide. It is quite possible with so may outlets pushing the Blue Wave theory many Republicans who were not going to vote until the real election in November came out and voted whereas there just were not that many Democrats left to vote.

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

On 3/9/2018 at 4:04 PM, AuburnNTexas said:

One key factor when looking at Hispanic's in Texas is that many have been here for many many generations and many have non-Hispanic and Hispanic Heritage.  As such their views are mixed just as others are.  As stated in the article 40% of them voted for a Republican but what is so surprising about that probably 35% of the Non-Hispanic community voted Democratic. The media spends to much time trying to group people as if all whites, all blacks and all Hispanics are the same.

The Hispanic community is very religious and conservative (Anti-abortion, smaller government, balanced budget)  on the whole (now I am making generalizations just like the media) they probably have more in common with the Republican party than the Democratic Party. Large numbers of Hispanics in Texas are middle class and upper class again why so may here vote Republican. Many Republican Law makers in Texas are Hispanic.

If the Republicans could find a better way to deal with immigration issue and reach out to Hispanics they could pick up a huge chunk of the Hispanic vote throughout the country. I honestly believe that one reason the Democrats did not fix the Immigration policy in Obama's first 2 years when they had super majority and pushed through Obamacare was it kept the immigration issue as a divide to keep the Hispanic vote away from the Republican party.

I am speaking from personal knowledge as my wife is Hispanic and very Republican. She is more republican and more conservative than I am on all issues except guns which she would limit access to. She is an immigrant who started out Democratic when we married and as she read and listened to people from both parties she slowly moved to the Republican party. She realized that most of her views aligned more with the Republican Party than the Democratic Party.

It has always amazed me how many people are clueless about that part of the Hispanic community.