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tigerbrotha12

State of baseball team

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Well in a couple hours the Tigers will have a chance to shake off the Arky weekend....game against Samford in B'ham.  

Looks like it will be on their TV hook-up which I think we were able to stream in the past.

First pitch is 6PM CT.

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On 4/8/2018 at 10:15 PM, tigerbrotha12 said:

As we have seen so far in conference play, we are facing teams with essentially 2.5 aces on them; no more Sunday Run Day stopgap starters in this conference.

When you don’t hit or score runs for 6 or 7 innings in a game, over the span of several games, you make a lot of good pitchers look like Aces. I don’t believe we have faced anymore aces than anyone else, but our poor hitting has turned some pitchers into aces. The Arky reliever on Sunday was not ace and set a career high for strikeouts, out of the bullpen. A lot of our swings and misses are not close to the ball. 

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On 4/8/2018 at 9:50 PM, Tigerbelle said:

Poor officiating has really hurt Auburn's morale and changed the momentum of the game at critical stages in each of those games where they occured. What I want to know is this.....are the officials making those errors across the board or is it just in Auburn's games?

We saw different things the past couple of weekends. Maybe you are correct about poor officiating in spots. But we left a run off the board in the first inning vs Arky because of a runner not taking second on a wild pitch. Then we took at least one run off the board because of the HR base running mistake. We also let a relief pitcher set a career high for strikeouts, most of them by swinging and missing the ball by a foot or more. Then we opened their rally by bouncing a throw to first base from a routine ground ball. Most of these mistakes are being made by upperclassmen. The talent is there, but we need to quit being our own worst enemy. 

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19 hours ago, AUGoo said:

Please explain to the unwashed amongst us.

Let's just say it's the ultimate in "taking one for the team".

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9 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

We saw different things the past couple of weekends. Maybe you are correct about poor officiating in spots. But we left a run off the board in the first inning vs Arky because of a runner not taking second on a wild pitch. Then we took at least one run off the board because of the HR base running mistake. We also let a relief pitcher set a career high for strikeouts, most of them by swinging and missing the ball by a foot or more. Then we opened their rally by bouncing a throw to first base from a routine ground ball. Most of these mistakes are being made by upperclassmen. The talent is there, but we need to quit being our own worst enemy. 

You and I are seeing many of the same things.  I've been on record as being worried about the offense since the second week of the season when we were being tied up twice a weekend by mediocre competition.  But our infielders have made too many mistakes lately as well, giving other teams extra outs.  The Mizzou series is a great example of that happening.  Errors cost us at least one, if not both losses that weekend.

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29 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Errors cost us at least one, if not both losses that weekend.

I like Butch as much as I have liked any AU coach and we’ve definitely improved under him, but he is a recruiting cycle or two away in my opinion. Hopefully they can get back on track this weekend at home. 

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So I have been perusing the YTD stats for the SEC and a couple of things jump out (which many on here have already said). At this point in the season we are a middle of the pack hitting team; 8th in avg, 7th in slugging pct, 3rd in on base pct, 4th in runs scored, 4th in RBI to name a few. But the feeling I seem to get is that we are trending down and most of those numbers are propped up by early season play. 

Our pitching and fielding are in the lower tier of the conference. In pitching 10th in ERA, 9th in opposing team batting avg, 9th in hits allowed. Fielding is worse. 12th in fielding pct, 9th in put outs, 5th most errors, and to me this is the kicker- next to last in double plays turned. We have turned 15 DP this year, while the leaders in this category are in the 30's.

Say what you will, but most of those numbers indicate a team that is performing in the bottom third of the conference.

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3 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Let's just say it's the ultimate in "taking one for the team".

Very good way of putting it.

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2 hours ago, 80Tiger said:

In pitching 10th in ERA, 9th in opposing team batting avg, 9th in hits allowed.

Bull pen is what is killing us.....I'd basically compare our three starters with anyone....but after that......:dunno:

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4 hours ago, Gowebb11 said:

We saw different things the past couple of weekends. Maybe you are correct about poor officiating in spots. But we left a run off the board in the first inning vs Arky because of a runner not taking second on a wild pitch. Then we took at least one run off the board because of the HR base running mistake. We also let a relief pitcher set a career high for strikeouts, most of them by swinging and missing the ball by a foot or more. Then we opened their rally by bouncing a throw to first base from a routine ground ball. Most of these mistakes are being made by upperclassmen. The talent is there, but we need to quit being our own worst enemy. 

The HR debacle was not really a base running mistake. That was totally on the officials. They allowed that confusion and then compounded it. And I am not implying that there's not work to do.  I was addressing the morale issue in case you missed it.

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36 minutes ago, Tigerbelle said:

The HR debacle was not really a base running mistake. That was totally on the officials. They allowed that confusion and then compounded it. And I am not implying that there's not work to do.  I was addressing the morale issue in case you missed it.

I can give you the umps confusion on the HR call, and I did notice you were addressing the morale of the team. But you seemed to be insinuating that we were victims of bad calls. You’re certainly entitled to that opinion. But we are 2-8 in our last 10 SEC games and are being outscored about 6-2 in that stretch. Tonight we are getting whipped by Samford at home. Can’t all be bad officiating. Butch has his work cut out for him to salvage a once promising season. Hopefully he can get it back on track. 

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24 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

I can give you the umps confusion on the HR call, and I did notice you were addressing the morale of the team. But you seemed to be insinuating that we were victims of bad calls. You’re certainly entitled to that opinion. But we are 2-8 in our last 10 SEC games and are being outscored about 6-2 in that stretch. Tonight we are getting whipped by Samford at home. Can’t all be bad officiating. Butch has his work cut out for him to salvage a once promising season. Hopefully he can get it back on track. 

You obviously overlooked where I said that I WAS NOT implying that was no work to be done for this team. You seem invested in mansplaining and telling me what I mean.  I was pretty clear. When a team is in a slump and some bad calls rob them of runs that are hard to come by anyway....it works on the mindset of the team. That does contribute to how the team plays. However.....that is NOT the entire problem. NOT ONE SINGLE TIME did I say that the bad officiating was the only factor at play. NOT ONE SINGLE TIME. That's just your apparent lack of comprehension. And I don't need your permission to have my opinion. I was not the only person who believes that either. Also you don't have to give me anything. It was terrible officiating.

BTW....there is a whole specialty called sports psychology....and that's why sports psychologists exist.....because the mental part of sports is a very important component to winning. Mind over matter and all that.....

Edited by Tigerbelle
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22 minutes ago, Tigerbelle said:

You obviously overlooked where I said that I WAS NOT implying that was no work to be done for this team. You seem invested in mansplaining and telling me what I mean.  I was pretty clear. When a team is in a slump and some bad calls rob them of runs that are hard to come by anyway....it works on the mindset of the team. That does contribute to how the team plays. However.....that is NOT the entire problem. NOT ONE SINGLE TIME did I say that the bad officiating was the only factor at play. NOT ONE SINGLE TIME. That's just your apparent lack of comprehension. And I don't need your permission to have my opinion. I was not the only person who believes that either. Also you don't have to give me anything. It was terrible officiating.

BTW....there is a whole specialty called sports psychology....and that's why sports psychologists exist.....because the mental part of sports is a very important component to winning. Mind over matter and all that.....

In all seriousness, why does it seem like you jump on others on here for having a cordial debate by immediately accusing them of mansplaining?  You've done it to me and now Gowebb, despite the fact that he said nothing out of the ordinary realm of conversation on this site.  Hell, his exact words were "You seemed to be insinuating", which makes it clear that he could have been wrong in that inference. 

Seriously, you do yourself a disservice and lose credibility every time you go on one of these rants.  And by the way, I'm a pretty freaking liberal guy that's 100% for equal voices.  Go check the political forums if you need confirmation.

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3 hours ago, Tigerbelle said:

You obviously overlooked where I said that I WAS NOT implying that was no work to be done for this team. You seem invested in mansplaining and telling me what I mean.  I was pretty clear. When a team is in a slump and some bad calls rob them of runs that are hard to come by anyway....it works on the mindset of the team. That does contribute to how the team plays. However.....that is NOT the entire problem. NOT ONE SINGLE TIME did I say that the bad officiating was the only factor at play. NOT ONE SINGLE TIME. That's just your apparent lack of comprehension. And I don't need your permission to have my opinion. I was not the only person who believes that either. Also you don't have to give me anything. It was terrible officiating.

BTW....there is a whole specialty called sports psychology....and that's why sports psychologists exist.....because the mental part of sports is a very important component to winning. Mind over matter and all that.....

Generally I agree with you Belle, but “mansplaining?” Really? Come on now. 

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Back on track here: this was probably the most embarassing loss for AU baseball this entire season. Something is going to have to light a fire in these guys. Missouri and Samford are not better teams than Auburn talent wise. Arkansas is not a sweep better than Auburn talent wise. This is mental. They have a terrible plate approach and pitchers lose control and crucial times in the game. This is the issue ladies and gents: we have no clutch players. Maybe one. Casey Mize. No one able to step up in a big spot other than this guy. This was an embarassing loss. I hope the players know this. They need to be told this. This is a bad loss and they should really take no positive from this except Will Holland. 

You want to win baseball games boys? Hit the dern ball. Don’t chase balls a foot outside the zone. FOCUS at the plate- don’t go hacking at everything. Pitchers, don’t leave 0-2 pitches up in the strike zone. 

I played baseball until college, and this is the same stuff coaches always told us. You CAN control your abilities, it’s all about your approach. 

Im sure the guys are trying very hard, but something is dead wrong about their approach to “hit their way out of a slump” or to “throw strike three past the guy and establish dominance.”

It’s time for new focus. Time for a new approach by some of the guys. That’s just my two cents. I don’t believe the focus or approach is there to win currently.

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6 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Generally I agree with you Belle, but “mansplaining?” Really? Come on now. 

Gotta tiptoe around belle sometimes.....seems to take disagreement as an indication of disrespect.

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Ideal realistic rest of the SEC schedule results:

Miss St     2-1

@ UAT      2-1

@Florida      1-2

Vanderbilt     2-1

@Ole Miss    1-2

LSU  2-1

Weekdayers:

UAB     W

 SAMFORD     W

SOUTH ALABAMA      W

@TROY      W

That would give us a final record of 37-19. Few SEC TOURNEY wins and that’s still good enough to host. This is me being quite optimistic with the schedule, though. I’m giving us wins at home on the weekdays and assuming we steal one from both Florida and Ole Miss. If Auburn figures it out, I can see this scenario playing out. If not..... let’s not think about that. Hope they can clean the slate and get after it this weekend. Stop swinging at crap.... that will be all.

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SEC competition is super tough this season as it has been in the past. This team has lost some SEC games that it had a solid chance to win. If we can take 2 out of 3 against MSU, this could be what the doctor ordered to get some confidence back for this team. I knew going into the Arkansas series, we had our hands full and then some. Mizzou was one series that we had our chance to win but could not make it happen.

Confidence is what this team needs at the this current hour of the season. IF we can take a series or 2 in the near future, this season could turn for the better and give this team a chance to crawl closer to a 500 W/L record in the SEC. All teams get some bad calls throughout the season and we are no exception. I would love to see a total of bad calls each team in the SEC has had to date and see if we have more than other teams. IF there is a pattern, then maybe some attention should be  directed at the umpire crew for them to correct whatever bad calls they seem to be making towards us and not other teams. I have no idea how this would play out and it could very well be that we get about the same as other SEC teams get. This would however, be something interesting to know one way or the other.  I know there are many of you who know light years more about baseball and I respect your knowledge. I just want this team to win so badly and feel bad for the young men going through this slump.

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On 4/11/2018 at 1:52 PM, tigerbrotha12 said:

Ideal realistic rest of the SEC schedule results:

Miss St     2-1

@ UAT      2-1

@Florida      1-2

Vanderbilt     2-1

@Ole Miss    1-2

LSU  2-1

Weekdayers:

UAB     W

 SAMFORD     W

SOUTH ALABAMA      W

@TROY      W

That would give us a final record of 37-19. Few SEC TOURNEY wins and that’s still good enough to host. This is me being quite optimistic with the schedule, though. I’m giving us wins at home on the weekdays and assuming we steal one from both Florida and Ole Miss. If Auburn figures it out, I can see this scenario playing out. If not..... let’s not think about that. Hope they can clean the slate and get after it this weekend. Stop swinging at crap.... that will be all.

Based on the last few weeks, your projection is somewhat optimistic IMO, taking the series from Vandy will be tough, as well as taking the series from UAT on the road.

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11 hours ago, doc4aday said:

SEC competition is super tough this season as it has been in the past. This team has lost some SEC games that it had a solid chance to win. If we can take 2 out of 3 against MSU, this could be what the doctor ordered to get some confidence back for this team. I knew going into the Arkansas series, we had our hands full and then some. Mizzou was one series that we had our chance to win but could not make it happen.

Confidence is what this team needs at the this current hour of the season. IF we can take a series or 2 in the near future, this season could turn for the better and give this team a chance to crawl closer to a 500 W/L record in the SEC. All teams get some bad calls throughout the season and we are no exception. I would love to see a total of bad calls each team in the SEC has had to date and see if we have more than other teams. IF there is a pattern, then maybe some attention should be  directed at the umpire crew for them to correct whatever bad calls they seem to be making towards us and not other teams. I have no idea how this would play out and it could very well be that we get about the same as other SEC teams get. This would however, be something interesting to know one way or the other.  I know there are many of you who know light years more about baseball and I respect your knowledge. I just want this team to win so badly and feel bad for the young men going through this slump.

This team outperformed early and is now underperforming. Baseball is a game of streaks, good and bad. Hopefully this weekend we can come out on fire and work our way towards solid post season play. Regarding AU getting bad calls, I’ve seen that referenced on here several times now. I personally don’t think that is a factor. Over the course of a long season you win some and you lose some from umps. When our team was winning, we were driving in runs with good plate approaches, minimizing strikeouts, and making routine defensive plays. Our bullpen was being efficient. During this slump, we’re striking out too much, making too many errors, and our bullpen is falling behind hitters and giving up too many walks. In other words, I wasn’t giving the umps any credit when we were winning, so I’m not going to blame them when we are not playing well. I’m excited  to have us get a big W tonight and get back on track. 

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1 hour ago, 80Tiger said:

Based on the last few weeks, your projection is somewhat optimistic IMO, taking the series from Vandy will be tough, as well as taking the series from UAT on the road.

Yep- that’s why I said ideal. If I was betting, I don’t know if I would predict this quite yet. Need to see us win first.

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2 hours ago, Gowebb11 said:

This team outperformed early and is now underperforming. Baseball is a game of streaks, good and bad. Hopefully this weekend we can come out on fire and work our way towards solid post season play. Regarding AU getting bad calls, I’ve seen that referenced on here several times now. I personally don’t think that is a factor. Over the course of a long season you win some and you lose some from umps. When our team was winning, we were driving in runs with good plate approaches, minimizing strikeouts, and making routine defensive plays. Our bullpen was being efficient. During this slump, we’re striking out too much, making too many errors, and our bullpen is falling behind hitters and giving up too many walks. In other words, I wasn’t giving the umps any credit when we were winning, so I’m not going to blame them when we are not playing well. I’m excited  to have us get a big W tonight and get back on track. 

I'm not so sure we outperformed early.  We didn't exactly play the toughest competition before SEC play, especially what we faced from an opposing pitching standpoint.  I also think people are conveniently forgetting how good the SEC is this year, and maybe better than we thought initially.  Bama and UGA are huge surprises, Mizzou is pretty decent, and everyone else is solid as well.    It's why the only series that's bothered me so far is the Mizzou series.  We should have won at least two there.  Looking at the rest of the schedule, I only see about 7-8 wins left in SEC play barring a massive turnaround at the plate.  The league is that tough this year.

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Is this the year a 12-18 SEC team gets into the NCAA tournament with it being so deep? If that’s us, our RPI will be around 20- something, and we’d still have a pretty good overall record at like about 36-22 or so. 

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3 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Is this the year a 12-18 SEC team gets into the NCAA tournament with it being so deep? If that’s us, our RPI will be around 20- something, and we’d still have a pretty good overall record at like about 36-22 or so. 

I think its entirely possible.

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Offensively 2 of our returning players are about 20 basis points away from last years BA (Davis .19 off pace, Jarvis .20 off pace) and  2 are about 12 basis points away (Estes .11 off pace, Anthony .14 off pace) while Holland is 106 basis points better .209 vs .315.  Here differences might combine for about 10 additional hits. (We really miss Todd’s .376 and 37 walks at the top).  I believe the main difference is last years Friday and Saturday starters went 15-6  and averaged 8 and 7 innings per start.  This year our Saturday starter is averaging 4 innings and has won 2. 

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