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tigerbrotha12

State of baseball team

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22 hours ago, LPTiger said:

Offensively 2 of our returning players are about 20 basis points away from last years BA (Davis .19 off pace, Jarvis .20 off pace) and  2 are about 12 basis points away (Estes .11 off pace, Anthony .14 off pace) while Holland is 106 basis points better .209 vs .315.  Here differences might combine for about 10 additional hits. (We really miss Todd’s .376 and 37 walks at the top).  I believe the main difference is last years Friday and Saturday starters went 15-6  and averaged 8 and 7 innings per start.  This year our Saturday starter is averaging 4 innings and has won 2. 

Well said and well thought out. Think it’s time to move Burns to Saturday. Possibly time to give Greenhill a start considering he went about 80 pitches yesterday? 

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29 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Well said and well thought out. Think it’s time to move Burns to Saturday. Possibly time to give Greenhill a start considering he went about 80 pitches yesterday? 

It's beyond time to move Burns to Saturday.  I'd really like to see Mitchell in the Sunday role, especially since he's had some starting experience and to give hitters a different look with a lefty on the last day of a series.  DD is really better suited to be a long reliever.  He doesn't have enough bite on his breaking pitches to make a low-90s fastball effective, especially when he doesn't spot the FB that well in the first place.

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I've seen a lot of people say they want Burns to move to Saturday. Is there a benefit to him starting on Saturday versus staying in the Sunday spot? I say leave him there. He's developed his routine and weekly preparation for that Sunday spot. Unless there is a significant benefit to having him on Saturday versus Sunday, let Mitchell have the Saturday spot. Mitchell just threw several innings on a Saturday. Let him set up his week this week like he's the Saturday starter. 

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27 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I've seen a lot of people say they want Burns to move to Saturday. Is there a benefit to him starting on Saturday versus staying in the Sunday spot? I say leave him there. He's developed his routine and weekly preparation for that Sunday spot. Unless there is a significant benefit to having him on Saturday versus Sunday, let Mitchell have the Saturday spot. Mitchell just threw several innings on a Saturday. Let him set up his week this week like he's the Saturday starter. 

He seems to be the second best starter now and Saturday is where that guy usually starts...kind of a reward or recognition I think.  Otherwise, as someone mentioned earlier, why always put Mize against the other team's ace with the margin for error is razor thin?  

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37 minutes ago, AU64 said:

He seems to be the second best starter now and Saturday is where that guy usually starts...kind of a reward or recognition I think.  Otherwise, as someone mentioned earlier, why always put Mize against the other team's ace with the margin for error is razor thin?  

I think you always want to have your best opportunity to win early in a series. So best guy Friday night, 2nd best Sunday etc. As an example if you pitched Mize on Sat or Sunday, have you just conceded Friday night as a loss to the other teams ace? Now you have no possibility of a sweep. One of the axioms in baseball is to play the one you are playing and not worry about the ones after that.

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Right now I’m loving me some Tanner Burns and Cody Greenhill. Those guys attack the strike zone and aren’t afraid to challenge hitters. 

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1 hour ago, boomstick said:

I've seen a lot of people say they want Burns to move to Saturday. Is there a benefit to him starting on Saturday versus staying in the Sunday spot? I say leave him there. He's developed his routine and weekly preparation for that Sunday spot. Unless there is a significant benefit to having him on Saturday versus Sunday, let Mitchell have the Saturday spot. Mitchell just threw several innings on a Saturday. Let him set up his week this week like he's the Saturday starter. 

Because Burns is our second best pitcher and having him on Saturday does two things:

1) Matches you up better with the opposing team's starting pitcher so that you're not essentially conceding a game every week.

2) If Mize wins, you now have a legit shot to take the series on Saturday.  If he loses, you can force a rubber game with a good outing from Burns.  This was the luxury we had last year with Keegan on Friday and Casey on Saturday.

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43 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

Right now I’m loving me some Tanner Burns and Cody Greenhill. Those guys attack the strike zone and aren’t afraid to challenge hitters. 

I watched Tanner a couple of games last year.  Kid is something.  I was ecstatic when he chose AU over minor league.  Think he could be something really special.

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1 hour ago, AU64 said:

He seems to be the second best starter now and Saturday is where that guy usually starts...kind of a reward or recognition I think.  Otherwise, as someone mentioned earlier, why always put Mize against the other team's ace with the margin for error is razor thin?  

 

20 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Because Burns is our second best pitcher and having him on Saturday does two things:

1) Matches you up better with the opposing team's starting pitcher so that you're not essentially conceding a game every week.

2) If Mize wins, you now have a legit shot to take the series on Saturday.  If he loses, you can force a rubber game with a good outing from Burns.  This was the luxury we had last year with Keegan on Friday and Casey on Saturday.

I do think Burns is probably our second best starter, but I'm not sure he gives us a much better chance to win on Saturday than Mitchell might. They might be more like 2a and 2b. And as much as we may give up a matchup disadvantage on a Saturday where we throw our 3 vs a 2, we'd probably pick it up on Sunday with our 2 vs a 3.

Having said all of that, I just listened to Butch's podcast with Andy Burcham, and he said he thought Mize and Burns would stay Fri/Sun and that Mitchell would likely start Saturday. But what I found really interesting was some of the other stuff he said about the rotation and about them looking forward to future series. He talked about how they've looked ahead at Florida, which is a Thur-Sat series, and questioned whether or not they'd want to move Casey up a day to stay in his usual game 1 spot. I find that interesting because, if Mize stays as the Friday guy the whole season, then your third guy becomes a bit of a mess. After Bama, three of our final four series are Thur-Sat with one stuck in the middle as a Fri-Sun. If Mize stays Friday all season, it changes a lot of things up.

at Bama (Fri-Sun): Mize/Mitchell/Burns

at UF (Thur-Sat): ???/Mize/Burns moves up a day (it might make sense to move Tanner up this weekend in this scenario)

Vandy (Fri-Sun): Mize/Burns/???

at OM (Thur-Sat): ???/Mize/Burns

LSU (Fri-Sun): ???/Mize/Burns

 

Edited by boomstick

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8 minutes ago, boomstick said:

 

I do think Burns is probably our second best starter, but I'm not sure he gives us a much better chance to win on Saturday than Mitchell might. They might be more like 2a and 2b. And as much as we may give up a matchup disadvantage on a Saturday where we throw our 3 vs a 2, we'd probably pick it up on Sunday with our 2 vs a 3.

Having said all of that, I just listened to Butch's podcast with Andy Burcham, and he said he thought Mize and Burns would stay Fri/Sun and that Mitchell would likely start Saturday. But what I found really interesting was some of the other stuff he said about the rotation and about them looking forward to future series. He talked about how they've looked ahead at Florida, which is a Thur-Sat series, and questioned whether or not they'd want to move Casey up a day to stay in his usual game 1 spot. I find that interesting because, if Mize stays as the Friday guy the whole season, then your third guy becomes a bit of a mess. After Bama, three of our final four series are Thur-Sat with one stuck in the middle as a Fri-Sun. If Mize stays Friday all season, it changes a lot of things up.

at Bama (Fri-Sun): Mize/Mitchell/Burns

at UF (Thur-Sat): ???/Mize/Burns moves up a day (it might make sense to move Tanner up this weekend in this scenario)

Vandy (Fri-Sun): Mize/Burns/???

at OM (Thur-Sat): ???/Mize/Burns

LSU (Fri-Sun): ???/Mize/Burns

 

I guess you can look ahead like that but think you have to evaluate each series as it approaches.   The idea that Mize or any other pitcher is so inflexible that he can't be moved a day one way or the other is a problem because all of that rigidity goes out the window in the SEC tourney and NCAA playoffs. 

Manager's job is to figure out how to win the most games with the talent he has.....which might mean some adjustments when they could pay off.  JMO 

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12 minutes ago, boomstick said:

 

I do think Burns is probably our second best starter, but I'm not sure he gives us a much better chance to win on Saturday than Mitchell might. They might be more like 2a and 2b. And as much as we may give up a matchup disadvantage on a Saturday where we throw our 3 vs a 2, we'd probably pick it up on Sunday with our 2 vs a 3.

Having said all of that, I just listened to Butch's podcast with Andy Burcham, and he said he thought Mize and Burns would stay Fri/Sun and that Mitchell would likely start Saturday. But what I found really interesting was some of the other stuff he said about the rotation and about them looking forward to future series. He talked about how they've looked ahead at Florida, which is a Thur-Sat series, and questioned whether or not they'd want to move Casey up a day to stay in his usual game 1 spot. I find that interesting because, if Mize stays as the Friday guy the whole season, then your third guy becomes a bit of a mess. After Bama, three of our final four series are Thur-Sat with one stuck in the middle as a Fri-Sun. If Mize stays Friday all season, it changes a lot of things up.

at Bama (Fri-Sun): Mize/Mitchell/Burns

at UF (Thur-Sat): ???/Mize/Burns moves up a day (it might make sense to move Tanner up this weekend in this scenario)

Vandy (Fri-Sun): Mize/Burns/???

at OM (Thur-Sat): ???/Mize/Burns

LSU (Fri-Sun): ???/Mize/Burns

 

That tells me Butch is looking to use Casey against UF's #2 (and maybe OM too) just try and steal a game at each road series.  And honestly, I'm 100% OK with that.

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1 minute ago, Brad_ATX said:

That tells me Butch is looking to use Casey against UF's #2 (and maybe OM too) just try and steal a game at each road series.  And honestly, I'm 100% OK with that.

I'd hate to burn his game against Singer who is like facing a major leaguer .....at least until our hitters show a bit more consistency.   Looking at the stats, their #1 and #2 are almost identical.....but I respect Singer the most...:dunno:   Getting one against UF would be a nice accomplishment in my view. 

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1 minute ago, AU64 said:

I guess you can look ahead like that but think you have to evaluate each series as it approaches.   The idea that Mize or any other pitcher is so inflexible that he can't be moved a day one way or the other is a problem because all of that rigidity goes out the window in the SEC tourney and NCAA playoffs. 

Manager's job is to figure out how to win the most games with the talent he has.....which might mean some adjustments when they could pay off.  JMO 

It came from Butch. So it's definitely something they are considering. I think the idea that Mize is so valuable to this team that we might not be willing to risk injury to him by moving him up a day to start shows that we're thinking of the best ways to be flexible and give us the chance to win as many games as possible. He's only going to get one appearance at the SECT and a regional, and I don't think a rigid rotation in the regular season would affect those much. So, I think it's reasonable to look ahead and try to set your rotation around him to give us the best chance to win his starts by keeping him the healthiest and freshest he can be and then figuring out the other starts around him. 

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1 minute ago, AU64 said:

I'd hate to burn his game against Singer who is like facing a major leaguer .....at least until our hitters show a bit more consistency.   Looking at the stats, their #1 and #2 are almost identical.....but I respect Singer the most...:dunno:   Getting one against UF would be a nice accomplishment in my view. 

Well Casey is like a facing a future top end major-leaguer as well.  But I agree, getting one at both Ole Miss and Florida would be more than acceptable right now.

 

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6 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I'd hate to burn his game against Singer who is like facing a major leaguer .....at least until our hitters show a bit more consistency.   Looking at the stats, their #1 and #2 are almost identical.....but I respect Singer the most...:dunno:   Getting one against UF would be a nice accomplishment in my view. 

Mize and Singer are listed as the #1 and #2 overall college prospects by D1Baseball. That would be one heck of a matchup. 

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6 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Mize and Singer are listed as the #1 and #2 overall college prospects by D1Baseball. That would be one heck of a matchup. 

Was in AU last year to see Mize vs Singer .... 2-1 AU win in a couple of 5 hitters.....superb baseball....maybe AU's best game of the season. 

Saw him  pitch the year before as a freshman down in Pensacola....you could see then that he had IT...

This year I'm thinking they are pretty much equal.....but maybe the tie would go to the UF hitters..

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1 hour ago, boomstick said:

It came from Butch. So it's definitely something they are considering. I think the idea that Mize is so valuable to this team that we might not be willing to risk injury to him by moving him up a day to start shows that we're thinking of the best ways to be flexible and give us the chance to win as many games as possible. He's only going to get one appearance at the SECT and a regional, and I don't think a rigid rotation in the regular season would affect those much. So, I think it's reasonable to look ahead and try to set your rotation around him to give us the best chance to win his starts by keeping him the healthiest and freshest he can be and then figuring out the other starts around him. 

Even throwing on Friday then Thursday, Mize is pitching on 5 days rest, which is one more than he will get in Pro Ball. 

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4 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

Even throwing on Friday then Thursday, Mize is pitching on 5 days rest, which is one more than he will get in Pro Ball. 

When he gets to pro ball, his routine and preparation will revolve around him getting 4 days rest. Right now, his program is built on 6 days rest and cutting out a day could have an impact on him. Of all the guys on this team that we can’t afford to lose, he’s definitely at the top of the list. Doing everything you can to keep him healthy gives you the best chance to win 5 more SEC games plus possibly an SECT game and a regional game (if we make it). If you bump him up a day and he experiences some fatigue and had to miss a start or two, was it worth the move up? 

I don’t even know if the coaches will actually keep him there, but I can see and understand the line of thinking on why they may not want to move him. 

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we have one of the top pitchers in college baseball ... maybe one of the top 2 ... let the other teams figure out how to jocky their pitching rotations to match us ... not Mize to them.

(oh, yea ... guys ... hit the ball!)

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21 minutes ago, mustache eagle said:

we have one of the top pitchers in college baseball ... maybe one of the top 2 ... let the other teams figure out how to jocky their pitching rotations to match us ... not Mize to them.

(oh, yea ... guys ... hit the ball!)

True...the UF situation is a bit tougher but they are #1 for a reason.....two pitchers in the top 10 according to one site I saw recently. 

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Just now, AU64 said:

True...the UF situation is a bit tougher but they are #1 for a reason.....two pitchers in the top 10 according to one site I saw recently. 

Yeah, their Saturday guy, Jackson Kowar, is really, really good too. D1Baseball has him as the #5 RHP in this year's draft class, #15 overall.

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I don't get the idea that changing a pitcher's off days by one is even a consideration. Pitching only once a week, they aren't throwing enough live action anyway. Is "grab your glove and get loose" no longer a part of baseball?

There are plenty of internal details in football or basketball where I'm ignorant. I'll concede that. I spent 30+ years in and around the sport of baseball, so I'm not ignorant there. Pitching on first six, then five, then six days of rest should not be any sort of problem. The only possible problem is somebody's thinking too much.

Quoting from Auburn graduate Paul Hemphill's wonderful little novel, "Long Gone" : "This game is simple boys, just hit the ball and run like hell". :)

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34 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I don't get the idea that changing a pitcher's off days by one is even a consideration. Pitching only once a week, they aren't throwing enough live action anyway. Is "grab your glove and get loose" no longer a part of baseball?

There are plenty of internal details in football or basketball where I'm ignorant. I'll concede that. I spent 30+ years in and around the sport of baseball, so I'm not ignorant there. Pitching on first six, then five, then six days of rest should not be any sort of problem. The only possible problem is somebody's thinking too much.

Quoting from Auburn graduate Paul Hemphill's wonderful little novel, "Long Gone" : "This game is simple boys, just hit the ball and run like hell". :)

I think the biggest concern would be recovery time, especially for Mize. Given that he had some arm issues last year because of a couple of long outings followed by two short turnarounds and then missed two starts, I think they may want to be cautious with him. He's the one guy we absolutely cannot lose IMO if we want a chance to make the postseason. It just isn't worth the risk. They may not worry about it and bump him up to be the game one starter, but the fact that Butch mentioned tells me it's something they're seriously considering, and I think I can understand why.

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10 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I think the biggest concern would be recovery time, especially for Mize. Given that he had some arm issues last year because of a couple of long outings followed by two short turnarounds and then missed two starts, I think they may want to be cautious with him. He's the one guy we absolutely cannot lose IMO if we want a chance to make the postseason. It just isn't worth the risk. They may not worry about it and bump him up to be the game one starter, but the fact that Butch mentioned tells me it's something they're seriously considering, and I think I can understand why.

Babying a pitcher in hopes of "saving" his arm is a difficult thing to figure.   The Nats did everything possible to limit innings and starts for Strasburgh a few years ago....and for nothing.   Sat him during crucial part of the season and still lost him to Tommy John surgery not that long afterward.  Seems that in most sports, the athlete pushes himself beyond the limits he might actually face in a real game to increase strength and endurance....so if that theory is realistic  a pitcher who never pitches more than 100 pitches or who pitches no more than once per week would not seem to building his endurance to be near full strength at the end of an outing. 

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1 hour ago, AU64 said:

Babying a pitcher in hopes of "saving" his arm is a difficult thing to figure.   The Nats did everything possible to limit innings and starts for Strasburgh a few years ago....and for nothing.   Sat him during crucial part of the season and still lost him to Tommy John surgery not that long afterward.  Seems that in most sports, the athlete pushes himself beyond the limits he might actually face in a real game to increase strength and endurance....so if that theory is realistic  a pitcher who never pitches more than 100 pitches or who pitches no more than once per week would not seem to building his endurance to be near full strength at the end of an outing. 

I don’t consider it babying him at all. In Strasburg’s case, they limited his pitches and pulled him from some starts. I don’t think we’re considering anything like that. In the plan I think they’re considering, he will pitch every weekend and won’t miss a start. It would just keep him on the same regimented recovery schedule and give him the same 6 days he’s been used to all season. Bumping his start a day will reduce his recovery time by a day twice in three weeks. If everything were Thursday starts from here on out, I wouldn’t think they’d think anything about it to do it once. It’s the potential Fri/Thur/Fri/Thur in four consecutive starts that I think has them thinking about it.

The coaches will probably bump him up a day, and he will almost assuredly handle it fine. I’m just saying I can see the logic in it, and the fact that Mize is so important to this team is a reason to consider it. Keeping him on the same day doesn’t diminish our chances to win any of these series so I don’t have an issue with doing it. 

Edited by boomstick
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