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OlderWhiskey

Coaches' Softball Rankings

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We're still hanging on at #15 in the coaches' poll, with Arkansas right behind.  Despite my earlier pessimism, we may still have a chance to host.  The Top 25:

 

RANK SCHOOL POINTS RECORD PREVIOUS
RANK SCHOOL POINTS RECORD PREVIOUS
1 UCLA (30) 797 44-3 1
2 Oregon (1) 768 41-7 2
3 Oklahoma (1) 737 44-3 3
4 Florida 692 44-8 5
5 Georgia 648 42-8 6
6 Washington 642 41-8 4
7 Tennessee 587 42-10 6
8 Arizona State 550 38-9 9
9 Texas A&M 510 40-12 11
10 Arizona 505 35-13 10
11 Florida State 500 41-10 8
12 South Carolina 430 41-11 14
13 LSU 417 37-13 13
14 Michigan 358 40-8 15
15 Auburn 348 38-14 12
16 Arkansas 336 36-11 16
17 Long Beach State 278 38-10 17
18 Alabama 261 29-17 18
19 Baylor 203 33-14 19
20 Kentucky 181 29-17 20
21 Louisiana 122 33-13 22
22 James Madison 103 37-10 NR
23 Texas State 93 37-12 21
24 California 58 33-13 NR
24 Mississippi State 58 34-18 23

New to Poll: No. 22 James Madison, No. 24 California

Dropped Out: No. 24 Hofstra, No. 25 Oklahoma State 

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9 minutes ago, around4ever said:

Do you think the committee will let 7 SEC schools host regionals?  

Probably won't like it much but SEC is where the stadiums and crowds are.......so I'm guessing there might be a lean toward SEC in a tight decision...JMO

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There were 7 SEC regional hosts last year. (AU,AL,FL,TN,LSU,OM,A&M).  This year OM is not in contention, but UGA, SC, and Arkansas are.  Florida, Georgia, and UT are in the top 8, and are locks.  A&M and SC are above 12 in RPI and seem to be locks.  LSU is 13 in this poll, and in RPI, and will certainly host.  That's six teams virtually guaranteed to host, then you have uat, Auburn, and Arkansas at 16, 17, and 18 in RPI.  A&M goes to Tuscaloosa, while Arkansas goes to Baton Rouge.  Then the SEC tournament starts a week from tomorrow.  I don't know what the committee will do, but will certainly be interested in how things play out.

Note:  I thought this would come under AU64's post.

Edited by OlderWhiskey

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38 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

There were 7 SEC regional hosts last year. (AU,AL,FL,TN,LSU,OM,A&M).  This year OM is not in contention, but UGA, SC, and Arkansas are.  Florida, Georgia, and UT are in the top 8, and are locks.  A&M and SC are above 12 in RPI and seem to be locks.  LSU is 13 in this poll, and in RPI, and will certainly host.  That's six teams virtually guaranteed to host, then you have uat, Auburn, and Arkansas at 16, 17, and 18 in RPI.  A&M goes to Tuscaloosa, while Arkansas goes to Baton Rouge.  Then the SEC tournament starts a week from tomorrow.  I don't know what the committee will do, but will certainly be interested in how things play out.

Note:  I thought this would come under AU64's post.

Hah...I took the easy way out.....still not sure how RPI gets factored into the calculations but there is an anti-SEC bias in just about very NCAA sport it seems and some folks always looking for a reason to not do something.   I appreciate your comments and review....I don't follow the sport closely enough to recall what happened in previous years....plead guilty to being mostly an AU fan in this sport and a casual watcher of the rest of the league...and mostly just the front runners. 

Ending the season with Chattanooga can do nothing good for us...  not sure why we scheduled that.  Thus, I'm thinking we might need a good performance in the SEC tournament to get that host seat. 

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Everything I’ve read this week still has us in as a host. That doesn’t mean I feel good about our chances. We need to take care of Chattanooga and then make some noise in the SEC Tournament. 

Here is the concensus by conference:

ACC - 1  (Florida State)

Big Ten - 0 (very outside chance of Michigan)

Big 12 - 1 (Oklahoma, possibly Baylor over Alabama or Auburn)

PAC 12 - 5 (Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State)

SEC - 9 (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama)

*There is an outside shot of Long Beach State hosting. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Hspoprn said:

Predictions where AU will be seeded in SEC tourney ?

I think 8th seed.

It's looking like 8 seed Auburn vs 9 seed Alabama with the winner getting 1 seed Florida. The game would be at 6:30 next Wednesday, but times could change based on if Mizzou gets into the SEC tournament since they are hosts and would get the prime time spot. 

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Right now, AU is the 8 seed.  If TA&M beats bama at least one game, we will stay at least 8 seed and bama at 9 seed.  If LSU (current 7 seed) loses all three, then we could move up to 7 seed.  If we move to 7 seed, the first game would be Kentucky.  However, I doubt LSU loses all three and if bama were to take all 3 from TA&M, then that would drop us to #9 seed and play bama as the 8 seed.

So it looks like first round of SEC will be against bama, and that game may decide which of the two make the last seed for hosting a regional.

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Thanks for the analysis.  We've played alabama in the touurnament 2 of the past 3 years, and beaten them both times; but didn't face Osorio in those games.  Coaches take different strategies in the SEC Tournament, as generally most see the NCAA playoffs as more important.  Walton in particular seems to make very little effort to win the SEC tournament, probably because he already has the regular season championship.  The past two times, Murphy held Osorio back for the potential game with Florida, which didn't materialize when we beat them.  This year he may throw Alexis first game, thinking he needs a win to host.

It looks to me like there are five teams under consideration for the last three hosting spots;  Auburn, alabama, Baylor, Arkansas, and Long Beach.  It's my feeling (and that's all it is) that the committee will give no more than two of those spots to the SEC.   Gonna be interesting to see how it turns out.

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3 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Thanks for the analysis.  We've played alabama in the touurnament 2 of the past 3 years, and beaten them both times; but didn't face Osorio in those games.  Coaches take different strategies in the SEC Tournament, as generally most see the NCAA playoffs as more important.  Walton in particular seems to make very little effort to win the SEC tournament, probably because he already has the regular season championship.  The past two times, Murphy held Osorio back for the potential game with Florida, which didn't materialize when we beat them.  This year he may throw Alexis first game, thinking he needs a win to host.

It looks to me like there are five teams under consideration for the last three hosting spots;  Auburn, alabama, Baylor, Arkansas, and Long Beach.  It's my feeling (and that's all it is) that the committee will give no more than two of those spots to the SEC.   Gonna be interesting to see how it turns out.

In 2015 and 2016, Auburn and Alabama were both WCWS teams so there was a really strong chance Murphy was “saving” Osorio in the SEC tournament for a potential matchup in Oklahoma City against us (even though it didn’t happen in OKC). Also, he used her against Georgia in 2015 and host school Mississippi State in 2016 just to get to the Auburn matchup in the SEC tournament. 

If AU and Bama matchup this year on opening Wednesday, there is a 100% chance he throws Osorio if she is healthy. With an NCAA host spot on the line and considering she only threw once against us this year because she got injured in game 3, you can bet he will use her against us. 

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With 16 regionals I don't see any reason why the SEC would not have 7 hosts.  Bammer has the same issue with hitting that we do and Osorio is very beatable.  I don't see Arky winning the series at LSU this weekend and TAMU has too many hitters.  I think we stand a decent chance of hosting.

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I'm saying that 7 seeds are a virtual lock, and 8 are probable. I don't think we get 9, so either AU, bama, or Arkansas gets left out.  I think that we're probably still good as long as LSu wins the series in Baton Rouge; but we could be in jeopardy if the Razorbacks pull off the road upset.  And Osorio may be very beatable, but Auburn has never done it.  She's undefeated for her career against us.

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15 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

I'm saying that 7 seeds are a virtual lock, and 8 are probable. I don't think we get 9, so either AU, bama, or Arkansas gets left out.  I think that we're probably still good as long as LSu wins the series in Baton Rouge; but we could be in jeopardy if the Razorbacks pull off the road upset.  And Osorio may be very beatable, but Auburn has never done it.  She's undefeated for her career against us.

Osorio did take the game 3 loss in relief after pitching both of the first 2 games in 2015, but I get your point, we didn’t actually beat her. She was worn out at that point. 

Edited by all4AU

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2 hours ago, all4AU said:

Osorio did take the game 3 loss in relief after pitching both of the first 2 games in 2015, but I get your point, we didn’t actually beat her. She was worn out at that point. 

Way our offense is suffering it's kinda hard to see us beating any elite SEC pitcher at the moment.    Might be that we have to count on some help from some other SEC teams to improve our relative standings.

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9 hours ago, all4AU said:

Osorio did take the game 3 loss in relief after pitching both of the first 2 games in 2015, but I get your point, we didn’t actually beat her. She was worn out at that point. 

Thanks for pointing that out.  I didn't realize she took the loss in that one.  Threw 16 pitches, faced three batters.  What a wild game.  Two 5-run leads by bama, 25 runs, 28 hits, 14 by each team.

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What is the story on the Chattanooga games?  When are they?  The schedule says Sunday at 1 and 3:30.  Other sources are saying Saturday at 1 and 3:30. 

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2 minutes ago, around4ever said:

What is the story on the Chattanooga games?  When are they?  The schedule says Sunday at 1 and 3:30.  Other sources are saying Saturday at 1 and 3:30. 

Schedule on the sports site says Sunday afternoon.....and since the SEC season is finished these look like a couple warm-up games for the SEC tournament.  We are locked in with a batch of middle of the road teams....Arky, LSU and bama...all with about the same records... 

Probably need a couple SEC wins to help our regional standings perhaps. .....and need to start by getting the bats warmed up against the Mocs...

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Apparently scheduled these games to get a road warmup for the SEC.  Last night, LSU defeated Arky 2-1 on a 7th inning walkoff homer by Amanda Doyle.  uat beat A&M 6-2, including a 3-run homer in the first inning.

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1 hour ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Apparently scheduled these games to get a road warmup for the SEC.  Last night, LSU defeated Arky 2-1 on a 7th inning walkoff homer by Amanda Doyle.  uat beat A&M 6-2, including a 3-run homer in the first inning.

I’m officially worried now. Bama is 1.5 games behind us with 2 to play. Also, they know that if we play them Wednesday, that’s their chance by completely claim a hosting spot over us.

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Plus, they seem to have suddenly found the ability to hit.  Scored 13 runs against UGA (same as UGA) in that series.  Now 6 in the first game against the Aggies.

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4 hours ago, around4ever said:

What is the story on the Chattanooga games?  When are they?  The schedule says Sunday at 1 and 3:30.  Other sources are saying Saturday at 1 and 3:30. 

I think the "why" is because every SEC team had a weekend without an SEC opponent. (The result of having only 13 SEC softball teams) All of them scheduled some nearby lower-level team to fill the gap. Our off-weekend just happened to fall on the final weekend of the season.

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27 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I think the "why" is because every SEC team had a weekend without an SEC opponent. (The result of having only 13 SEC softball teams) All of them scheduled some nearby lower-level team to fill the gap. Our off-weekend just happened to fall on the final weekend of the season.

Copy that.  But when are the games, Saturday or Sunday?

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12 minutes ago, around4ever said:

Copy that.  But when are the games, Saturday or Sunday?

Schedule says Sunday......at Chattanooga...

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