Zeek 16,635 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2018-nfl-draft-picks-high-school-recruiting-star-rankings-for-first-round-selections/ Quote STAR-RATINGS FOR FIRST ROUND NFL DRAFT PICKS NFL TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL STARS RANK (YEAR) CLE Baker Mayfield , QB Oklahoma 3 1029 (2013) NYG Saquon Barkley , RB Penn State 4 119 (2015) NYJ Sam Darnold , QB USC 4 148 (2015) CLE Denzel Ward , DB Ohio State 4 278 (2015) DEN Bradley Chubb , DL NC State 3 734 (2014) IND Quenton Nelson , OL Notre Dame 4 61 (2014) BUF Josh Allen , QB Wyoming 3 199 (2015) CHI Roquan Smith , LB Georgia 4 48 (2015) SF Mike McGlinchey , OL Notre Dame 4 172 (2013) ARI Josh Rosen, QB UCLA 5 11 (2015) MIA Minkah Fitzpatrick , DB Alabama 5 30 (2015) TB Vita Vea , DL Washington 3 587 (2013) WAS Da'Ron Payne , DL Alabama 5 29 (2015) NO Marcus Davenport , DL UTSA 2 2613 (2014) OAK Kolton Miller , OL UCLA 3 371 (2014) BUF Tremaine Edmunds , LB Virginia Tech 3 441 (2015) LAC Derwin James , DB Florida State 5 5 (2015) GB Jaire Alexander , DB Louisville 3 941 (2015) DAL Leighton Vander Esch , LB Boise State NR NR (2014) DET Frank Ragnow Arkansas 4 324 (2014) CIN Billy Price , OL Ohio State 4 211 (2013) TEN Rashaan Evans , LB Alabama 5 14 (2014) NE Isaiah Wynn , OL Georgia 4 110 (2014) CAR D.J. Moore, WR Maryland 3 354 (2015) BAL Hayden Hurst , TE South Carolina NR NR (2012) ATL Calvin Ridley , WR Alabama 5 12 (2015) SEA Rashaad Penny , RB San Diego State 3 944 (2014) PIT Terrell Edmunds , DB Virginia Tech 3 1109 (2014) JAC Taven Bryan , DL Florida 3 533 (2014) MIN Mike Hughes , DB UCF 3 421 (2015) NE Sony Michel , RB Georgia 5 20 (2015) BAL Lamar Jackson , QB Louisville 3 409 (2015) Some thoughts: The average of the first 32 players taken has a 3.5 * rating. 22 different colleges are represented by a player in the first round. 50% of the first round picks were 3* or below. Eighteen 5* prospects from 2013-15 went undrafted. Auburn had 3/18 of the undrafted 5* players: Tre Williams, Roc Thomas, Darius James Auburn players drafted and their stars: Braden Smith 4* // Kerryon Johnson 4* // Carlton Davis 4* // Daniel Carlson 3* Overall I think that it shows what we already know. The ratings aren't the end-all-be-all of a player's career. However, it is nice to have a class filled with 3-5 * players. Auburn, interestingly enough, seems to not fair extremely well with 5* talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metafour 4,966 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Those numbers don't mean what you think they do. Every time this gets brought up as some sort of "recruiting rankings don't matter" argument its by people who don't understand how sample sizes work. There are what, ~30 5-star players in every given class? This is in comparison to hundreds of 3-star players. This means that if 5 out of those 30 gets drafted in the 1st round, it is still a far higher percentage than say if 15 out of ~ 700 3-star players get drafted in the 1st round. 5 out of 30 is ~17% whereas 15 out of 700 is just ~2%. So clearly, the success rate is still far greater with 5-star recruits than it is with 3-star recruits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU64 10,122 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, metafour said: Those numbers don't mean what you think they do. Every time this gets brought up as some sort of "recruiting rankings don't matter" argument its by people who don't understand how sample sizes work. There are what, ~30 5-star players in every given class? This is in comparison to hundreds of 3-star players. This means that if 5 out of those 30 gets drafted in the 1st round, it is still a far higher percentage than say if 15 out of ~ 700 3-star players get drafted in the 1st round. 5 out of 30 is ~17% whereas 15 out of 700 is just ~2%. So clearly, the success rate is still far greater with 5-star recruits than it is with 3-star recruits. The un-success rate is 83%....though lots of 5* players don't make it from HS to college starter (or notable college starter) especially QBs. Still, while it is no guarantee, it's a pretty good indicator of those who might make it all the way. Still ......I'm wondering how a team with all those 5* and top draft picks lost to AU and barely slipped by Miss State aided by bad clock management in Starkville. , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeek 16,635 Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 47 minutes ago, metafour said: Those numbers don't mean what you think they do. Every time this gets brought up as some sort of "recruiting rankings don't matter" argument its by people who don't understand how sample sizes work. There are what, ~30 5-star players in every given class? This is in comparison to hundreds of 3-star players. This means that if 5 out of those 30 gets drafted in the 1st round, it is still a far higher percentage than say if 15 out of ~ 700 3-star players get drafted in the 1st round. 5 out of 30 is ~17% whereas 15 out of 700 is just ~2%. So clearly, the success rate is still far greater with 5-star recruits than it is with 3-star recruits. I still implied that they matter. A 3.5 average still essentially rounds up to 4 showing the importance of getting 4-5* with 3* to fill out a class. However, a player being a 3* doesn't mean they necessarily have a lower ceiling. For Auburn particularly we don't have a tremendous amount of success with 5* but our 4* have been pretty solid overall. Thanks for the input though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Zeek said: Auburn, interestingly enough, seems to not fair extremely well with 5* talent. Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, McLoofus said: Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeek 16,635 Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, aujeff11 said: Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ? So in the words of Golf it's 50/50 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abw0004 10,109 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. For what it is worth, I believe Davidson was a 4 star. 7 minutes ago, aujeff11 said: Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ? Three of those weren't really Auburn's fault. Duke, Jovon, and Dyer all had behavior issues that could not be fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeek 16,635 Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. So we should only trust Rodney Garner!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lionheartkc 6,150 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, aujeff11 said: 45 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ? Generally speaking, it would appear that 5-star offensive players don't have the personality for Auburn's no nonsense approach to life outside of football. Or maybe they just lack in a little maturity, which I believe covers Roc and Cowart as well (even though Cowart was defense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeek 16,635 Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 Well I wasn't trying to make a "do rankings matter thread". Just thought it was interesting looking at how the rankings looked for the top players in the NFL draft. It was just meant to be something interesting. Personally it's awesome seeing players work so hard in college that their school/rankings don't prevent them from their NFL dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,076 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 We have had this debate for years & it has been broken down thoroughly & hasn't changed. As Zeek said in his OP they aren't the end all be all but they do unequivocally do matter on the maco level. Breaking it down again. Nearly 22% of 1st round picks were 5*s. (7 of 32) A bit over 28% of 1st round picks were 4*s. (9 of 32) Combined 50% of 1st round picks were 4 & 5*s. (16 of 32) There were over 8,000 high school seniors & juco eligible recruits per the 247.com player search for the 2019 class. 8258 to be exact. 29 were 5*s. That means 0.3%, (not 3%) of the class were 5*s 365 were 4* recruits. That means 4.4% of the class were 4*s. 4 & 5*s combined for 4.7% of the class w/ the remaining 95.3% being 3*s or lower. For 4 & 5*s only making up 4.7% of the class yet making up 50% of 1st round picks that's staggering. Even more staggering is the 5*s making up .3% of the class but being 22% of 1st round picks. That's insane & proves stars do matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,076 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Zeek said: Well I wasn't trying to make a "do rankings matter thread". Just thought it was interesting looking at how the rankings looked for the top players in the NFL draft. It was just meant to be something interesting. Personally it's awesome seeing players work so hard in college that their school/rankings don't prevent them from their NFL dreams. Just what these discussions always turn too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoALtiger 3,849 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Load me up with as many 4’s and 5’s as possible and I’ll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,076 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 hour ago, McLoofus said: Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. Ended up a 4*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 57 minutes ago, abw0004 said: For what it is worth, I believe Davidson was a 4 star. I guess I only listen to Rivals when they have our guys higher, lol. (In this case, they were right.) Quote Three of those weren't really Auburn's fault. Duke, Jovon, and Dyer all had behavior issues that could not be fixed. Yep. Also, all 3 of those guys produced like 5*s when they didn't have their heads up their asses. Elijah Daniel, Roc Thomas and Byron Cowart... welp... Ashley and now Pappoe will have a lot to say about it. And @Zeek, I don't mean to split hairs. Just talking to talk. Appreciate the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aujeff11 6,243 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Zeek said: So we should only trust Rodney Garner!!! As long as a 5* player doesn’t mind being derecruited. When players arrive on campus thinking they have already ARRIVED, that’s when their recruiting rankings plummet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,076 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 hour ago, aujeff11 said: Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ? Dyer got us a Natty so he is gucci overall. Jovon & Duke were 4*s. #20 & #42 in the link of all time commits below. https://auburn.247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellitor 33,076 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, McLoofus said: Elijah Daniel, Elijah had behavioral issues too as we found out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McLoofus 35,182 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Just now, ellitor said: Elijah had behavioral issues too as we found out later. Yep. Just including him in the group of guys that never produced for whatever reason. Basically just supporting the argument that I'm arguing against, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUwent 3,747 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, ellitor said: Dyer got us a Natty so he is gucci overall. Jovon & Duke were 4*s. #20 & #42 in the link of all time commits below. https://auburn.247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruits Yeah, he deserves his fair share of credit for the natty. Doesn’t make what happened with him hurt any less, though. He seemed like such a classy guy during the recruiting process. I remember specifically thinking “now THERE’S someone we don’t have to worry about turning bad.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1auburn1 1,110 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 You can cherry pick players and cherry pick outcomes of games but in the end, stars matter a WHOLE lot because it’s really a roll up of what coaches think of players. They’re the real experts. Website guys do their “analysis” but the coaches provide the real G2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredst 9,064 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 5 hours ago, ellitor said: We have had this debate for years & it has been broken down thoroughly & hasn't changed. As Zeek said in his OP they aren't the end all be all but they do unequivocally do matter on the maco level. Breaking it down again. Nearly 22% of 1st round picks were 5*s. (7 of 32) A bit over 28% of 1st round picks were 4*s. (9 of 32) Combined 50% of 1st round picks were 4 & 5*s. (16 of 32) There were over 8,000 high school seniors & juco eligible recruits per the 247.com player search for the 2019 class. 8258 to be exact. 29 were 5*s. That means 0.3%, (not 3%) of the class were 5*s 365 were 4* recruits. That means 4.4% of the class were 4*s. 4 & 5*s combined for 4.7% of the class w/ the remaining 95.3% being 3*s or lower. For 4 & 5*s only making up 4.7% of the class yet making up 50% of 1st round picks that's staggering. Even more staggering is the 5*s making up .3% of the class but being 22% of 1st round picks. That's insane & proves stars do matter... Yep, and as much as we hate to admit it....look (slightly) West and the proof is there, like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GwillMac6 20,656 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 8 hours ago, aujeff11 said: Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ? one of those do not belong with the other! dyer was a beast for us. back to back 1k yard seasons. bust off the field. Def not on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GwillMac6 20,656 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 8 hours ago, abw0004 said: For what it is worth, I believe Davidson was a 4 star. Three of those weren't really Auburn's fault. Duke, Jovon, and Dyer all had behavior issues that could not be fixed. Marlon was a 5 star on at least one site. Or I should say ended up a 5 star on at least one site. Rivals I believe it was. So I count him! As long as they are a 5 star on at least one site I count em. Same with 4 stars. WO WO WO!!! whatcha doing?! We get very few as it is! Why you trying to take 1 of our beloved 5 stars away from us?! lol. Nate Craig Myers was a 5 star for the longest time on rivals but ended up not being one in the final rankings :[. Kyle Davis I cannot remember what site it was but I believe he was a 5 star at one time as well. Just did not end up being a 5 star on any of the final rankings of the sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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