look at draft in relation to high school rankings.

[Zeek 16,584]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2018-nfl-draft-picks-high-school-recruiting-star-rankings-for-first-round-selections/

Quote

STAR-RATINGS FOR FIRST ROUND NFL DRAFT PICKS

 

 

NFL TEAM	PLAYER	SCHOOL	STARS	RANK (YEAR)
CLE	Baker Mayfield , QB	Oklahoma	3	1029 (2013)
NYG	Saquon Barkley , RB	Penn State	4	119 (2015)
NYJ	Sam Darnold , QB	USC	4	148 (2015)
CLE	Denzel Ward , DB	Ohio State	4	278 (2015)
DEN	Bradley Chubb , DL	NC State	3	734 (2014)
IND	Quenton Nelson , OL	Notre Dame	4	61 (2014)
BUF	Josh Allen , QB	Wyoming	3	199 (2015)
CHI	Roquan Smith , LB	Georgia	4	48 (2015)
SF	Mike McGlinchey , OL	Notre Dame	4	172 (2013)
ARI	Josh Rosen, QB	UCLA	5	11 (2015)
MIA	Minkah Fitzpatrick , DB	Alabama	5	30 (2015)
TB	Vita Vea , DL	Washington	3	587 (2013)
WAS	Da'Ron Payne , DL	Alabama	5	29 (2015)
NO	Marcus Davenport , DL	UTSA	2	2613 (2014)
OAK	Kolton Miller , OL	UCLA	3	371 (2014)
BUF	Tremaine Edmunds , LB	Virginia Tech	3	441 (2015)
LAC	Derwin James , DB	Florida State	5	5 (2015)
GB	Jaire Alexander , DB	Louisville	3	941 (2015)
DAL	Leighton Vander Esch , LB	Boise State	NR	NR (2014)
DET	Frank Ragnow	Arkansas	4	324 (2014)
CIN	Billy Price , OL	Ohio State	4	211 (2013)
TEN	Rashaan Evans , LB	Alabama	5	14 (2014)
NE	Isaiah Wynn , OL	Georgia	4	110 (2014)
CAR	D.J. Moore, WR	Maryland	3	354 (2015)
BAL	Hayden Hurst , TE	South Carolina	NR	NR (2012)
ATL	Calvin Ridley , WR	Alabama	5	12 (2015)
SEA	Rashaad Penny , RB	San Diego State	3	944 (2014)
PIT	Terrell Edmunds , DB	Virginia Tech	3	1109 (2014)
JAC	Taven Bryan , DL	Florida	3	533 (2014)
MIN	Mike Hughes , DB	UCF	3	421 (2015)
NE	Sony Michel , RB	Georgia	5	20 (2015)
BAL	Lamar Jackson , QB	Louisville	3	409 (2015)

Some thoughts:

• The average of the first 32 players taken has a 3.5 * rating.
• 22 different colleges are represented by a player in the first round.
• 50% of the first round picks were 3* or below.
• Eighteen 5* prospects from 2013-15 went undrafted.
• Auburn had 3/18 of the undrafted 5* players: Tre Williams, Roc Thomas, Darius James
• Auburn players drafted and their stars: Braden Smith 4* // Kerryon Johnson 4* // Carlton Davis 4* // Daniel Carlson 3*

Overall I think that it shows what we already know. The ratings aren't the end-all-be-all of a player's career. However, it is nice to have a class filled with 3-5 * players. Auburn, interestingly enough, seems to not fair extremely well with 5* talent.

[metafour 4,958]

Those numbers don't mean what you think they do.  Every time this gets brought up as some sort of "recruiting rankings don't matter" argument its by people who don't understand how sample sizes work.  There are what, ~30 5-star players in every given class? This is in comparison to hundreds of 3-star players.  This means that if 5 out of those 30 gets drafted in the 1st round, it is still a far higher percentage than say if 15 out of ~ 700 3-star players get drafted in the 1st round.  5 out of 30 is ~17% whereas 15 out of 700 is just ~2%.  So clearly, the success rate is still far greater with 5-star recruits than it is with 3-star recruits.

[AU64 10,122]

11 minutes ago, metafour said:

Those numbers don't mean what you think they do.  Every time this gets brought up as some sort of "recruiting rankings don't matter" argument its by people who don't understand how sample sizes work.  There are what, ~30 5-star players in every given class? This is in comparison to hundreds of 3-star players.  This means that if 5 out of those 30 gets drafted in the 1st round, it is still a far higher percentage than say if 15 out of ~ 700 3-star players get drafted in the 1st round.  5 out of 30 is ~17% whereas 15 out of 700 is just ~2%.  So clearly, the success rate is still far greater with 5-star recruits than it is with 3-star recruits.

The un-success rate is 83%....though lots of 5* players don't make it from HS to college starter (or notable college starter) especially QBs.   Still, while it is no guarantee, it's a pretty good indicator of those who might make it all the way.  

Still ......I'm wondering how a team with all those 5* and top draft picks lost to AU and barely slipped by Miss State aided by bad clock management in Starkville. 

,

[Zeek 16,584]

47 minutes ago, metafour said:

Those numbers don't mean what you think they do.  Every time this gets brought up as some sort of "recruiting rankings don't matter" argument its by people who don't understand how sample sizes work.  There are what, ~30 5-star players in every given class? This is in comparison to hundreds of 3-star players.  This means that if 5 out of those 30 gets drafted in the 1st round, it is still a far higher percentage than say if 15 out of ~ 700 3-star players get drafted in the 1st round.  5 out of 30 is ~17% whereas 15 out of 700 is just ~2%.  So clearly, the success rate is still far greater with 5-star recruits than it is with 3-star recruits.

I still implied that they matter. A 3.5 average still essentially rounds up to 4 showing the importance of getting 4-5* with 3* to fill out a class. However, a player being a 3* doesn't mean they necessarily have a lower ceiling. For Auburn particularly we don't have a tremendous amount of success with 5* but our 4* have been pretty solid overall. Thanks for the input though! 

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 hours ago, Zeek said:

Auburn, interestingly enough, seems to not fair extremely well with 5* talent.

Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. 

 

[aujeff11 6,243]

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. 

 

Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ?

[Zeek 16,584]

7 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ?

So in the words of Golf it's 50/50 lol

[abw0004 10,102]

13 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. 

 

For what it is worth, I believe Davidson was a 4 star.

 

7 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ?

Three of those weren't really Auburn's fault.  Duke, Jovon, and Dyer all had behavior issues that could not be fixed.  

[Zeek 16,584]

13 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. 

  

So we should only trust Rodney Garner!!!

[lionheartkc 6,150]

39 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

45 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. 

 

Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ?

Generally speaking, it would appear that 5-star offensive players don't have the personality for Auburn's no nonsense approach to life outside of football. Or maybe they just lack in a little maturity, which I believe covers Roc and Cowart as well (even though Cowart was defense).

[Zeek 16,584]

Well I wasn't trying to make a "do rankings matter thread". Just thought it was interesting looking at how the rankings looked for the top players in the NFL draft. It was just meant to be something interesting. Personally it's awesome seeing players work so hard in college that their school/rankings don't prevent them from their NFL dreams.

[ellitor 33,062]

We have had this debate for years & it has been broken down thoroughly & hasn't changed. As Zeek said in his OP they aren't the end all be all but they do unequivocally do matter on the maco level.

Breaking it down again.

Nearly 22% of 1st round picks were 5*s. (7 of 32)
A bit over 28% of 1st round picks were 4*s. (9 of 32)
Combined 50% of 1st round picks were 4 & 5*s. (16 of 32)

There were over 8,000 high school seniors & juco eligible recruits per the 247.com player search for the 2019 class. 8258 to be exact.
29 were 5*s. That means 0.3%, (not 3%) of the class were 5*s
365 were 4* recruits. That means 4.4% of the class were 4*s.
4 & 5*s combined for 4.7% of the class w/ the remaining 95.3% being 3*s or lower.

For 4 & 5*s only making up 4.7% of the class yet making up 50% of 1st round picks that's staggering. Even more staggering is the 5*s making up .3% of the class but being 22% of 1st round picks. That's insane & proves stars do matter...

[ellitor 33,062]

5 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Well I wasn't trying to make a "do rankings matter thread". Just thought it was interesting looking at how the rankings looked for the top players in the NFL draft. It was just meant to be something interesting. Personally it's awesome seeing players work so hard in college that their school/rankings don't prevent them from their NFL dreams.

Just what these discussions always turn too.

[NoALtiger 3,849]

Load me up with as many 4’s and 5’s as possible and I’ll take my chances. 

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

Lawson, Adams, Brown and Davidson disagree. 

 

Ended up a 4*.

[McLoofus 35,182]

57 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

For what it is worth, I believe Davidson was a 4 star.

I guess I only listen to Rivals when they have our guys higher, lol. (In this case, they were right.)

Quote

Three of those weren't really Auburn's fault.  Duke, Jovon, and Dyer all had behavior issues that could not be fixed.  

Yep. Also, all 3 of those guys produced like 5*s when they didn't have their heads up their asses. 

Elijah Daniel, Roc Thomas and Byron Cowart... welp...

Ashley and now Pappoe will have a lot to say about it.

And @Zeek, I don't mean to split hairs. Just talking to talk. Appreciate the OP. 

 

[aujeff11 6,243]

1 hour ago, Zeek said:

So we should only trust Rodney Garner!!!

As long as a 5* player doesn’t mind being derecruited. When players arrive on campus thinking they have already ARRIVED, that’s when their recruiting rankings plummet.

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, aujeff11 said:

Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ?

Dyer got us a Natty so he is gucci overall.

Jovon & Duke were 4*s. #20 & #42 in the link of all time commits below.

https://auburn.247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruits

[ellitor 33,062]

3 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Elijah Daniel,

Elijah had behavioral issues too as we found out later.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Just now, ellitor said:

Elijah had behavioral issues too as we found out later.

Yep. Just including him in the group of guys that never produced for whatever reason. Basically just supporting the argument that I'm arguing against, lol. 

 

 

[AUwent 3,747]

13 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Dyer got us a Natty so he is gucci overall.

Jovon & Duke were 4*s. #20 & #42 in the link of all time commits below.

https://auburn.247sports.com/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruits

Yeah, he deserves his fair share of credit for the natty.

Doesn’t make what happened with him hurt any less, though. He seemed like such a classy guy during the recruiting process. I remember specifically thinking “now THERE’S someone we don’t have to worry about turning bad.”

[1auburn1 1,104]

You can cherry pick players and cherry pick outcomes of games but in the end, stars matter a WHOLE lot because it’s really a roll up of what coaches think of players.  They’re the real experts.  Website guys do their “analysis” but the coaches provide the real G2.  

[fredst 9,064]

5 hours ago, ellitor said:

We have had this debate for years & it has been broken down thoroughly & hasn't changed. As Zeek said in his OP they aren't the end all be all but they do unequivocally do matter on the maco level.

Breaking it down again.

Nearly 22% of 1st round picks were 5*s. (7 of 32)
A bit over 28% of 1st round picks were 4*s. (9 of 32)
Combined 50% of 1st round picks were 4 & 5*s. (16 of 32)

There were over 8,000 high school seniors & juco eligible recruits per the 247.com player search for the 2019 class. 8258 to be exact.
29 were 5*s. That means 0.3%, (not 3%) of the class were 5*s
365 were 4* recruits. That means 4.4% of the class were 4*s.
4 & 5*s combined for 4.7% of the class w/ the remaining 95.3% being 3*s or lower.

For 4 & 5*s only making up 4.7% of the class yet making up 50% of 1st round picks that's staggering. Even more staggering is the 5*s making up .3% of the class but being 22% of 1st round picks. That's insane & proves stars do matter...

Yep, and as much as we hate to admit it....look (slightly) West and the proof is there, like it or not.

[GwillMac6 20,580]

8 hours ago, aujeff11 said:

Duke, Jovon, Cowart, Dyar, and Roc agrees though. ?

one of those do not belong with the other! dyer was a beast for us. back to back 1k yard seasons. bust off the field. Def not on it!

[GwillMac6 20,580]

8 hours ago, abw0004 said:

For what it is worth, I believe Davidson was a 4 star.

 

Three of those weren't really Auburn's fault.  Duke, Jovon, and Dyer all had behavior issues that could not be fixed.  

Marlon was a 5 star on at least one site. Or I should say ended up a 5 star on at least one site. Rivals I believe it was. So I count him! As long as they are a 5 star on at least one site I count em. Same with 4 stars. WO WO WO!!! whatcha doing?! We get very few as it is! Why you trying to take 1 of our beloved 5 stars away from us?! lol. Nate Craig Myers was a 5 star for the longest time on rivals but ended up not being one in the final rankings :[. Kyle Davis I cannot remember what site it was but I believe he was a 5 star at one time as well. Just did not end up being a 5 star on any of the final rankings of the sites.