Baseball at Ole Miss Game 3

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Gotta challenge this if you're Butch.

[SCTiger2011 1,277]

9-3 Ole Miss here B8.  This one's over.  Disappointing performance by AU this weekend in Oxford with so much on the line.  They'll hopefully learn from it, and it's evident Ole Miss, like UF and Arkansas, are just in a different league, especially when you play them all on the road.  The west and the hosting shot were lost this weekend, but hopefully these guys can finish strong next weekend to give some confidence going into regional play in Tallahassee...

[autigeremt 6,589]

Outplayed and overmatched. Work to do.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

A sweep of LSU and a couple of wins in Hoover could still mean us hosting.  Otherwise, I'm with you SC.  We're packing for our seasonal residence in Tallyho.

[Gowebb11 9,313]

Disappointing to see so many non competitive at bats, and the quality of the opposing pitcher doesn’t seem to matter. Hopefully we can regroup and at least compete well next weekend at home. Need an upperclassman or two to step forward and give us a spark at the plate. 

[jared52 4,354]

Seems like the same as basketball. Very cometicit until late mid season and then just fall off the map. Hope they can reset after the disappointment of this weekend. Wasn’t close at all. 

[steeleagle 2,945]

don't be too harsh on them. They are playing the #5 team on their turf. Yes, i wanted that one win with Mize, our best Pitcher. 

They only scored 10 runs in the series. that is only about 3 runs a game. won't win with that. Plenty of RISP we didn't cash in on. CBT alluded to  that.

On with LSU. Got to have 2-3....

 

[AU64 10,122]

3 hours ago, Gowebb11 said:

Disappointing to see so many non competitive at bats, and the quality of the opposing pitcher doesn’t seem to matter. Hopefully we can regroup and at least compete well next weekend at home. Need an upperclassman or two to step forward and give us a spark at the plate. 

three pitchers with ERAs of about 5 owned us this weekend....Not sure how our RPI was so high when we have such a poor record against the top teams in the conference....the polls rankings looks more in line with the team's capability. 

[Gowebb11 9,313]

7 hours ago, AU64 said:

three pitchers with ERAs of about 5 owned us this weekend....Not sure how our RPI was so high when we have such a poor record against the top teams in the conference....the polls rankings looks more in line with the team's capability. 

I cant understand how it looks this bad, this late in the season. We’ve got juniors and seniors who are whiffing at breaking pitches like they are little leaguers seeeing them for the first time. 

[AU64 10,122]

Missed the game yesterday and was just looking back through the box scores....Burns and Mitchell?   wow....what happened there?     To some extent it was still anyone's game when Mitchell came in.

The final score was  much worse than it appears from the inning by inning review....AU was in it until the 8the seems......except for 13 THIRTEEN strike outs by AU against three different pitchers and 37 Ks in 3 games.....    

Meanwhile....very good work by Greenhill for the middle of the game to keep AU in reach. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

14 hours ago, SCTiger2011 said:

9-3 Ole Miss here B8.  This one's over.  Disappointing performance by AU this weekend in Oxford with so much on the line.  They'll hopefully learn from it, and it's evident Ole Miss, like UF and Arkansas, are just in a different league, especially when you play them all on the road.  The west and the hosting shot were lost this weekend, but hopefully these guys can finish strong next weekend to give some confidence going into regional play in Tallahassee...

Still think hosting is in play, but national top 8 seed went out the door last night. Beating LSU and a few wins in Hoover gets us to 40 wins which will be hard to keep an SEC west team with out of a hosting slot. 

[AU64 10,122]

2 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Still think hosting is in play, but national top 8 seed went out the door last night. Beating LSU and a few wins in Hoover gets us to 40 wins which will be hard to keep an SEC west team with out of a hosting slot. 

Maybe........... but we are 1-8 against the top 3 teams in the SEC and did not play #2 and #3 from the East....that's just not a good resume in my view when looking at a host situation.  A sweep of LSU would be great ...but not sure that would get us a host position.  .  

Schedule worked greatly to our favor this year and we mostly had our success against the doormat teams. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

26 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Maybe........... but we are 1-8 against the top 3 teams in the SEC and did not play #2 and #3 from the East....that's just not a good resume in my view when looking at a host situation.  A sweep of LSU would be great ...but not sure that would get us a host position.  .  

Schedule worked greatly to our favor this year and we mostly had our success against the doormat teams. 

Doormat is a bit of an overreach.  Of the 10 conference teams we played, at least 8 were projected to make the NCAA tournament as of last Tuesday.  Also, Mizzou sits 13th in the league and we lost that series.  With the exception of Alabam, every team in the league has 10 wins or more in conference play.  Going into today, just 4 games seperate 4th from 11th.  Remember, 4th gets you a buy in Hoover.

If anything, the league is more balanced than ever this season.  There's a razor thin margin between clubs.

[SCTiger2011 1,277]

29 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Maybe........... but we are 1-8 against the top 3 teams in the SEC and did not play #2 and #3 from the East....that's just not a good resume in my view when looking at a host situation.  A sweep of LSU would be great ...but not sure that would get us a host position.  .  

Schedule worked greatly to our favor this year and we mostly had our success against the doormat teams. 

And, especially if the rotation next weekend is the same order as this weekend, pitting our three against LSU's ace doesn't show a recipe to sweep that's needed to put AU in the hosting convo.

 At the risk of being criticized, it's important to note that I think just because the team has had a couple of terrible weekends (Arkansas/Mizzou/Ole Miss), a 15-15 (even 14-16) conference record for this squad is remarkable from their 4-8 start and especially from their preseason expectation.  Auburn baseball is trending up and about to make back-to-back regionals for the first time since 2001-2002.   This is a good team of great team guys, not a GREAT team talent-wise, no matter how some people try to dress it up, and as such they've allowed some opportunities the past two years slip away; I don't think it's "hating" or being negative to point that out. But to me it's fun to have these arguments about Auburn baseball again, instead of an ad nauseam "when should we hire our next victim...ummmmm coach" that dominated the board for years.  It's been fun watching this group grow and see their successes result in two postseason appearances.

[AU64 10,122]

5 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Doormat is a bit of an overreach.  Of the 10 conference teams we played, at least 8 were projected to make the NCAA tournament as of last Tuesday.  Also, Mizzou sits 13th in the league and we lost that series.  With the exception of Alabam, every team in the league has 10 wins or more in conference play.  Going into today, just 4 games seperate 4th from 11th.  Remember, 4th gets you a buy in Hoover.

If anything, the league is more balanced than ever this season.  There's a razor thin margin between clubs.

Not so sure on the balance.....top half and bottom half....and not sure there are razor thin margins  between those groups.   Seems the top 5 or 6 are much better than the others.  W-L records come out balanced because teams play top and bottom teams and don't play everyone.  As note...AU got the weaker teams in the East this year ..other than UF.    So we beat the bottom teams and lose to the top teams.   JMO ...it's not just W-L but who makes up the losses......and where you play them is a factor of course. . 

Teams can appear to have about the same W-L and yet are not equals. 

[SCTiger2011 1,277]

29 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Not so sure on the balance.....top half and bottom half....and not sure there are razor thin margins  between those groups.   Seems the top 5 or 6 are much better than the others.  W-L records come out balanced because teams play top and bottom teams and don't play everyone.  As note...AU got the weaker teams in the East this year ..other than UF.    So we beat the bottom teams and lose to the top teams.   JMO ...it's not just W-L but who makes up the losses......and where you play them is a factor of course. . 

Teams can appear to have about the same W-L and yet are not equals. 

Auburn had Florida, Kentucky,Vanderbilt, and Mizzou from the east.  Kentucky and Vanderbilt both have a shot to finish 2-3 in the division with 4 games to go so I'm not sure you can say they got a lucky draw in the east (with the exception I guess that they got to play Mizzou instead of Georgia).  Right now, there are 3 national seed picks from the SEC (Florida/Arkansas/Ole Miss).  Auburn had to play all three of them on the road.  So I'm a little skeptical of your opinion that the schedule balanced out the W-L records with respect to Auburn this year.  Auburn is number 8 nationally in SOS.  For comparison, the other west teams are Arkansas (4), MSU (14), TAMU (17), UAT (22), LSU (23), Ole Miss (26).  In my opinion, Auburn got bad luck toward a top-heavy conference draw than the other way around.

Now as for your assertion that teams can have the same W-L and not be equals:  I completely agree with that with regards to Arkansas and Ole Miss (Florida is an outlier for everyone so not including them). 

[SumterAubie 3,031]

Thus life on the road in the SEC. OM was fortunate to not be swept at South Carolina last week.

I expect this team to reach the CWS.  For one, Auburn will not face SEC quality competition in the subregional.. And I like Auburn's chances in the regional with Mize on the mound in the first game. Puts a lot of pressure on the opposing team.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

It just seems to me like we’ve won games against quality opponents and most of our losses have been, alike, to quality opponents, and on the road at that. I think we’ll host if we win the series against LSU then win a few in Hoover.

[SCTiger2011 1,277]

2 minutes ago, SumterAubie said:

Thus life on the road in the SEC. OM was fortunate to not be swept at South Carolina last week.

I expect this team to reach the CWS.  For one, Auburn will not face SEC quality competition in the subregional.. And I like Auburn's chances in the regional with Mize on the mound in the first game. Puts a lot of pressure on the opposing team.

? Now that's a bold statement.  That'd be awesome!  I think the regional would be harder to win than a best-of-three super regional, kind of like last year.  Auburn ran out of pitching, and that was with two studs on the mound.  To get through a regional, AU needs 7+ from Mize and Burns, and needs a Vandy-like performance from Mitchell to shut the door in a regional final.  And dang, now I'm getting flashbacks to that heartbreaking regional last year.  I had suppressed it for a year lol

[SumterAubie 3,031]

37 minutes ago, SCTiger2011 said:

? Now that's a bold statement.  That'd be awesome!  I think the regional would be harder to win than a best-of-three super regional, kind of like last year.  Auburn ran out of pitching, and that was with two studs on the mound.  To get through a regional, AU needs 7+ from Mize and Burns, and needs a Vandy-like performance from Mitchell to shut the door in a regional final.  And dang, now I'm getting flashbacks to that heartbreaking regional last year.  I had suppressed it for a year lol

Right. When I referred to regional, I meant super regional.

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, SCTiger2011 said:

Auburn had Florida, Kentucky,Vanderbilt, and Mizzou from the east.  Kentucky and Vanderbilt both have a shot to finish 2-3 in the division with 4 games to go so I'm not sure you can say they got a lucky draw in the east (with the exception I guess that they got to play Mizzou instead of Georgia).  Right now, there are 3 national seed picks from the SEC (Florida/Arkansas/Ole Miss).  Auburn had to play all three of them on the road.  So I'm a little skeptical of your opinion that the schedule balanced out the W-L records with respect to Auburn this year.  Auburn is number 8 nationally in SOS.  For comparison, the other west teams are Arkansas (4), MSU (14), TAMU (17), UAT (22), LSU (23), Ole Miss (26).  In my opinion, Auburn got bad luck toward a top-heavy conference draw than the other way around.

Now as for your assertion that teams can have the same W-L and not be equals:  I completely agree with that with regards to Arkansas and Ole Miss (Florida is an outlier for everyone so not including them). 

 Auburn is number 8 nationally in SOS.

No doubt we have had a bi*** of schedule but we've not done well against them either.....Last I noticed we were ranked about 17-18 nationally and I think that's not too far off ....which puts us on the edge.  

In the East I notice the South Carolina is pretty good also and we did not get them....Just the way it works out in the SEC when we don't play all teams.   Did not hurt for us to miss Ga and USCe....  .both are probably better than AU....especially if we had to play at their place.  

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

26 minutes ago, AU64 said:

 Auburn is number 8 nationally in SOS.

No doubt we have had a bi*** of schedule but we've not done well against them either.....Last I noticed we were ranked about 17-18 nationally and I think that's not too far off ....which puts us on the edge.  

In the East I notice the South Carolina is pretty good also and we did not get them....Just the way it works out in the SEC when we don't play all teams.   Did not hurt for us to miss Ga and USCe....  .both are probably better than AU....especially if we had to play at their place.  

This is two sided though.  East teams get to avoid several from the West. UGA got to play Bama and A&M, along with Tennessee.  This means that as of this morning's standings, UGA will have played a series against each of the 5 worst teams in the conference, which is half their overall SEC schedule.  Against the top of the West, they went 1-2 at OM and we'll see how they do against Arkansas.

And SC has been red hot lately, but started the season losing 4 of their first 5 SEC series.

We aren't behind SC and I'd take my chances against UGA too.  If either of them came to Plainsman Park this year, I'd expect to win the series.  Conversely if we played at their parks, we likely drop 2.

[boomstick 1,315]

I think we still have a chance at hosting a regional. RPI is still good enough. If we win the LSU series, we’d be 15-15. Plus, we have our midweek win over Bama, which the committee views as a conference win. So, that’s 16-15. I think we need to win one at Hoover in that scenario to guarantee we finish .500 in conference games. If we sweep LSU, I think we host regardless of the SECT. 

[WDEKC 187]

Our schedule has been brutal when you consider that our 3 toughest series were all on the road. Would have been nice to not get swept in 2 of them, but it's pretty unprecedented to play 3 top 5 teams all on the road.

[WDEKC 187]

17 hours ago, boomstick said:

I think we still have a chance at hosting a regional. RPI is still good enough. If we win the LSU series, we’d be 15-15. Plus, we have our midweek win over Bama, which the committee views as a conference win. So, that’s 16-15. I think we need to win one at Hoover in that scenario to guarantee we finish .500 in conference games. If we sweep LSU, I think we host regardless of the SECT. 

Agreed, even after getting swept, our RPI is still at 12. We get to .500 in SEC play and I'd guess we are hosting.