Hosting/Regional Placement

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

What needs to happen? A series win over LSU I think kept us alive. With one of the higher RPI’s in the league, and a 15-15 SEC record (really 16-15 counting  the Bama game), as well as 37-19 overall record, does Auburn have a case? If not, what else needs to happen? 

In my opinion, these guys have a case if they do a few more things. RPI of 12 and some impressive records. I do think they need to do a little work in Hoover; maybe a game or two, but if these guys do that, I think the Tigers can point to a number of factors that give them a host spot. 

 

What say ye?

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Let hope we do host. The weekend series over LSU should help our cause.

[ellitor 33,062]

On 5/19/2018 at 5:17 PM, tigerbrotha12 said:

What needs to happen? A series win over LSU I think kept us alive. With one of the higher RPI’s in the league, and a 15-15 SEC record (really 16-15 counting  the Bama game), as well as 37-19 overall record, does Auburn have a case? If not, what else needs to happen? 

In my opinion, these guys have a case if they do a few more things. RPI of 12 and some impressive records. I do think they need to do a little work in Hoover; maybe a game or two, but if these guys do that, I think the Tigers can point to a number of factors that give them a host spot. 

 

What say ye?

Need at least 2 in Hoover now to feel optimistic about their chances.

[ellitor 33,062]

45 minutes ago, auburn4ever said:

Let hope we do host. The weekend series over LSU should help our cause.

Sweeping them would have helped. With LSU's RPI at 42 winning 2 games to 1 kept AU where it was.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,225]

3 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

What needs to happen?

Move Plainsman Park to California.  Only four of the top fifty RPI teams are west of Texas.  I'm afraid there are just too many great college baseball teams in the south for us to host this year.  Unless we win next Sunday in Hoover.

[ellitor 33,062]

14 hours ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Move Plainsman Park to California.  Only four of the top fifty RPI teams are west of Texas.  I'm afraid there are just too many great college baseball teams in the south for us to host this year.  Unless we win next Sunday in Hoover.

I see your point based on history but not sure that is going to apply this year. As it stands now Stanford & Oregon State are the only teams not East of Texas that have a shot to host this year. Texas & Texas Tech will get host sites to try to balance the geography some but 12 host sites will go to eastern teams. If AU can get 2 or 3 in Hoover to put them in the RPI top 10 then they have a real shot at hosting. The selection committee doesn't typically reach past the RPI top 30 to get a Western host site.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,225]

34 minutes ago, ellitor said:

As it stands now Stanford & Oregon State are the only teams not East of Texas that have a shot to host this year. 

You're so emphatic without really being informed...already counting Oregon State vs. UCLA next weekend as a total loss for the Bruins?  I would assume the NCAA selection committee would seriously want a host site in So Cal.  As you so well know just playing in Corvallis will be a bump to their RPI.  Even UW has at least a chance to win the PAC 12, and I'm pretty sure that would garner a look.

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

You're so emphatic without really being informed...already counting Oregon State vs. UCLA next weekend as a total loss for the Bruins?  I would assume the NCAA selection committee would seriously want a host site in So Cal.  As you so well know just playing in Corvallis will be a bump to their RPI.  Even UW has at least a chance to win the PAC 12, and I'm pretty sure that would garner a look.

With all due respect I am informed. I have studied the numbers for years & you know this. U-Dubb has no chance of hosting a region even if they somehow win the PAC 12. Their RPI is 69 & what they have done in the non conference will prevent them from hosting a regional. Heck. Barring winning the series over Stanford I'm not sure they would even make the field of 64. No at large bid has ever come from a team worse than the RPI in the 50s.

Nice catch on UCLA although they'd probably have to win their series at Oregon St to get in the top 30 of the RPI. I don't see UCLA hosting without getting their RPI in the top 30 since it has rarely if ever happened a team outside the top 30 get a host spoteven with the imbalances that happen in the west nearly every year..

[boomstick 1,315]

IMO it comes down to 8 teams for 5 host spots: Auburn, Texas, UConn, Minnesota, NC State, East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, and Duke. I think the last three are the least likely to host and the first five are in no particular order. Don’t think the AAC will get two hosts, and UConn just beat ECU in their series. Coastal has a 24 RPI, and while their OOC SOS is strong at 5, their resume isn’t significantly stronger than the others listed to make up for their RPI deficiency. Duke has a facilities problem, and while they’re trying to make temporary improvements to host, that’s still up in the air. And they probably need to win a game or two in the ACCT to feel good about their chances. 

 

[augolf1716 21,091]

Not to derail but I just checked the latest mock draft and Casey is still #1

[fredst 9,064]

On ‎5‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 5:14 PM, ellitor said:

Sweeping them would have helped. With LSU's RPI at 42 winning 2 games to 1 kept AU where it was.

And, of all things lost *Mize's* start. That one hurt....

[boomstick 1,315]

9 minutes ago, fredst said:

And, of all things lost *Mize's* start. That one hurt....

Yeah, him giving up 4 runs on 5 straight hits kinda came out of nowhere. 

[fredst 9,064]

Just now, boomstick said:

Yeah, him giving up 4 runs on 5 straight hits kinda came out of nowhere. 

Especially with the dominance he displayed first 4(?5) innings. Weird, but that's baseball sometimes....

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

20 hours ago, fredst said:

Especially with the dominance he displayed first 4(?5) innings. Weird, but that's baseball sometimes....

Looked like it was a conglomeration of a couple bad pitches, and a lot of bad luck. Mize only left 2 or 3 pitches up that inning but they were all hit right where Auburn players weren’t. Sometimes all the hits come together and momentum gets on a team’s side. Wouldn’t have mattered so much if we had given Mize some run support. We get that in the postseason and we’ll be unbeatable with him.

[BJCrawford 1,568]

Ugh looks like weather (all week) could make for a lot of stop and go playing. Delayed right now in the first game of the sec tournament.  

[au701948 995]

What will be our planned pitching rotation for our next 2 games?

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

2 hours ago, au701948 said:

What will be our planned pitching rotation for our next 2 games?

Sounding like a weekend rotation starting with ole miss. 

Burns against them, and then roll out Mize against whoever is after that. We win at least one of those, I’m expecting Mitchell on Friday. Gives us two days to mke it up as we go. Jack Owen could probably go again and I’m guessing if we wound up making it to Saturday or even Sunday Davis Daniel could throw again. Expect guys like Ryan Hoerter and Corey Herndon to throw some meaningful innings if we wind up making a run to the end 

Dont forget about Welby either, he can go a good 4 innings if needed 

[WDEKC 187]

8 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Sounding like a weekend rotation starting with ole miss. 

Burns against them, and then roll out Mize against whoever is after that. We win at least one of those, I’m expecting Mitchell on Friday. Gives us two days to mke it up as we go. Jack Owen could probably go again and I’m guessing if we wound up making it to Saturday or even Sunday Davis Daniel could throw again. Expect guys like Ryan Hoerter and Corey Herndon to throw some meaningful innings if we wind up making a run to the end 

Dont forget about Welby either, he can go a good 4 innings if needed 

I'm thinking it depends on winning tomorrow. If we win, might keep mize in his Friday slot since a loss on Thursday wouldn't be an elimination.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, WDEKC said:

I'm thinking it depends on winning tomorrow. If we win, might keep mize in his Friday slot since a loss on Thursday wouldn't be an elimination.

My thoughts too. And if we steal one Thursday too, then we get Casey to pitch us into the final on Saturday.

[boomstick 1,315]

Hosting reset. After yesterday's win, I think a win over Ole Miss will likely lock up a spot for us. But win today and one more, and I don't think there's any doubt. If we get to Saturday in the SECT, I don't see any way we aren't a host. And given that Mize is supposed to go tomorrow, if we can win today, we have to like our chances against either aTm or UGA. Guessing we do again today what we did with the bullpen yesterday. Burns starts and then everybody expect Mize, Owen, Daniel, and Greenhill are available. Then, you can throw Mize and Greenhill on Thursday since Greenhill only threw 36 pitches. Win one or both and you just regroup after Thursday and try to piece something together for Friday or Saturday.

[ellitor 33,062]

I figured it would be a good idea to post projections from Baseball America, D1 Baseball, & Perfect Game. These projections are from after last weekend but before the SECT

BA had AU a 2 seed in the Duke region who they have as the last Host seed at #16.

D1 had AU a 2 seed in the Clemson region who is projected the #9 overall seed.

PG had AU as a host & the #11 overall seed.

Games to keep an eye on today:

AU-aTm
OU-Texas: I think Texas will host but they are losing to OU 3-1 & in danger of going 2 & out in the Big 12 Tourney. AU could jump them in seeding order.
Duke-Wake: Duke is losing to Wake in the ACC tourney 2-0 & they are right on the edge of a seed host line.
ECU-Houston: ECU is a fringe host team that could drop if they don't win the AAC Tourney.
TTU-Okie St.: Tech will be a host but after getting blasted yesterday 12-2 by TCU their seed host order could drop if they lose to Okie St. today & go 2 & out in the Big 12 Tourney.
Stetson-Kennesaw: Stetson will likely be a host but if they don't win the A-Sun Tourney their seed host order will drop.
NC St-UVA: NC St. is projected near the bottom of the host sites.
Coastal Carolina-South Alabama: CCU is a borderline host seed.
UCLA-Oregon St.: If UCLA gets 1 in their series at OSU they will likely be a host so the tournament can have a little bit of geographical balance. PAC 12 doesn't have a tournament.
Minnesota-Illinois: Minn is a lower seed host projection that could drop a bit if they don't win the Big Ten Tourney.
UConn-USF: UConn is a fringe host team that could drop if they don't win the AAC Tourney.

[ellitor 33,062]

Kendal Rogers from D1Basrball.com is on JOX right now. Says he has AU the 1st team out right now as a host & 1 more win would put AU in as a host.

[WDEKC 187]

Don't understand Duke as a host, they had a rather easy ACC schedule and are only 6-6 against top 50 RPI teams. Auburn has 7 more RPI top 50 wins than Duke has games played against top 50 competition.

[ellitor 33,062]

58 minutes ago, WDEKC said:

Don't understand Duke as a host, they had a rather easy ACC schedule and are only 6-6 against top 50 RPI teams. Auburn has 7 more RPI top 50 wins than Duke has games played against top 50 competition.

Well they are 5-4 versus the RPI Top 25 while we are 6-11. We dominate them everywhere else though so I agree with you. 13-6 to 1-2 vs RPI 26-50, 8-1 to 10-6 vs RPI 51-100, & 8-1 to 12-2 to RPI 101-200 teams. Also we have played 17 games vs RPI top 25 teams while they only played 9, 36 vs top 50 while they played 12. 45 vs the to 100 while they played 28. Lastly our SOS is 12 while theirs is 77.

[ellitor 33,062]

OU just eliminated Texas. Only the 2nd time in Big 12 conference history the regular season Big 12 champ went 2 & out in the Big 12 tourney, TCU in 2015.