Hosting/Regional Placement

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

54 minutes ago, WDEKC said:

Hell we were close to hosting a super last year if it weren't for choking in Tallahassee.

And probably close to Omaha, consequentially, given that Keegan and Casey were throwing...

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Starting to hear lots of good stuff about Auburn being a host. Don’t know what to think of it certainly, but lots of people close to baseball seem to be picking the Tigers as 15 or 16 overall seed....

[ellitor 33,081]

25 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Starting to hear lots of good stuff about Auburn being a host. Don’t know what to think of it certainly, but lots of people close to baseball seem to be picking the Tigers as 15 or 16 overall seed....

Any reading material link wise outside of D1Baseball you would like to share?

[SumterAubie 3,031]

Does Auburn need an OM victory tomorrow for help with hosting?

[ellitor 33,081]

26 minutes ago, SumterAubie said:

Does Auburn need an OM victory tomorrow for help with hosting?

No. LSU winning would actually boost our resume more since we won the series with them. They could jump in the RPI top 25 with a win & that would give us 2 more RPI top 25 wins. It more comes down to though does Coastal win the Sun Belt Tourney? Also potentially does Minnesota win the Big Ten Tourney & maybe does Louisville beat FSU tomorrow dropping Texas to #24 in the RPI? I think Texas & Minnesota are hosts regardless but its close enough to where those are questions to be asked.

[Mikey 16,574]

Dohahue drive is closed near the sports facilities and construction is in full swing. If we do host, people need to be prepared to either walk or do some serious study of maps of the area, or both. The AHS graduation at the Arena Tuesday night was a nightmare.

[ellitor 33,081]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

Dohahue drive is closed near the sports facilities and construction is in full swing. If we do host, people need to be prepared to either walk or do some serious study of maps of the area, or both. The AHS graduation at the Arena Tuesday night was a nightmare.

FWIW People can get to the parking deck using Duncan from Samford, Old Colliseum lot using Duncan from Samford, or the arena lot using War Eagle Way from Wire..

[boomstick 1,315]

Games of interest today:

Louisville vs FSU: I think we want FSU to win here. That would probably push FSU up the pecking order another step on he National seed discussion and would probably eliminate Louisville’s name from serious hosting consideration. 

Troy vs Coastal Carolina: a Troy win bumps Coastal down a bit in the hosting discussion and should help our RPI slightly. At this point, any little bit helps. 

Purdue vs Minnesota: Minnesota is very close to us in RPI. A Minnesota win would bump us to 14 in the RPI. So a Purdue win is ideal to help keep us at 13. 

Ole Miss vs LSU: I think we need LSU to win here. An LSU win would vault them very close to the RPI top 25, and if they can get there, that betters our record against RPI Top 25 teams. And I think LSU is far enough back that they won’t get into the hosting discussion just because of one good week. 

[boomstick 1,315]

Postseason Snapshot: May 27

ANALYSIS D1 Baseball Staff - May 27, 2018

 

 

Hosts

SECURE TEAMS: Florida, Arkansas, Stanford, Ole Miss, Oregon State, Florida State, Georgia, Clemson, Stetson, North Carolina, Minnesota, Texas Tech, East Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): UConn, Texas, Auburn

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): NC State, Coastal Carolina, Louisville, Duke

No change from yesterday.

Only two games remain on the schedule for Sunday that could impact the hosting race: Coastal Carolina vs. Troy in the Sun Belt title game, and Louisville vs. FSU in the ACC title game. The Chanticleers climbed four spots to No. 20 in the RPI after beating South Alabama in Saturday’s semifinal, and if they win again Sunday to add a conference tournament championship to their regular-season title, they’ll have a real shot to sneak into one of those last hosting spots. The Chants are 10-6 against the top 50 and 19-9 against the top 100 — both very respectable metrics, but still behind our last three projected hosts. We don’t expect them to leapfrog UConn, Texas and Auburn in the pecking order, but a win Sunday would make things very interesting.

Louisville entered the week as a darkhorse hosting candidate, needing a deep ACC tournament run to boost its RPI, which started the week at No. 28. The Cards went 2-0 in pool play and then beat Pittsburgh on Saturday to clinch a trip to Sunday’s ACC title game. Their RPI is still just No. 24 — too low for an ACC hosting candidate, especially with a modest 9-10 record against the top 50. But an ACC tourney title Sunday could make things interesting, because Louisville did get very hot down the stretch (albeit against a very friendly schedule) to finish 18-12 in the ACC in the regular season. Now they’re 21-12 against ACC opponents, with a 43-16 record overall. They have just one series win against a team headed to regionals (Week One of ACC play against North Carolina), but they did go 2-1 against the SEC (with midweek wins over Kentucky and Vandy) and 1-1 against Big 12 power Texas Tech. If the Cards lose Sunday, they’ll probably come up short of hosting… but if they win, they’ve got at least a shot to sneak in there.

UConn held steady at No. 16 in the RPI after losing to East Carolina in the AAC tournament championship game. At this point, we think both AAC finalists are on track to host, but the Pirates now feel like a lock, with a No. 12 RPI and the tournament championship under their belts. UConn gives the field some geographic diversity, but that’s not the only reason it gets the edge over NC State, Coastal Carolina, Louisville and Duke. Northern teams with that kind of RPI generally wind up hosting, assuming they performed well in conference. UConn is also 11-9 vs. the top 50, which is actually better than NC State (9-8), Louisville (9-10) and Duke (6-7), who have enormous geographic advantages over UConn when it comes to midweek scheduling, in particular. And UConn is 22-13-1 against the top 100, which also compares favorably to those three ACC teams.

NC State went 0-2 in the ACC tourney and dropped to No. 19 in the RPI — dicey territory for an ACC host candidate that didn’t win the regular-season championship. Ultimately, NC State’s No. 185 nonconference strength of schedule figures to really cost it with the committee. So will the fact that the Wolfpack didn’t exactly finish with a flourish, going 9-9 over its last 18 games. NCSU got to 20-13 vs. ACC teams and won all but two of its weekend series, so if the committee decides to reward it with a host, we won’t have any real beef with that. But right now, we think UConn, Texas and Auburn are slightly ahead. Duke is in a similar position, at No. 22 in the RPI and 19-12 in ACC games, but its 6-7 mark against the top 50 and head-to-head series loss put it pretty clearly behind NCSU in the pecking order. It doesn’t look good for Duke’s hosting chances.

We still like Texas’ hosting chances even after an 0-2 showing in the Big 12 tournament dropped it to No. 22 in the RPI. The Longhorns won the regular-season title in the Big 12, the No. 2 RPI conference, and that still carries a lot of weight. That should be enough to overcome the RPI deficiency. The Longhorns are 13-14 against RPI Top 50 teams and have a strong 23-16 mark against the top 100.

Our last spot goes to Auburn, by a nose over the Wolfpack and Chanticleers. The Tigers are just 6-12 against the top 25, but their 19-19 mark against the top 50 and their 27-20 record against the top 100 blows away the rest of the bubble host contenders. Auburn also has the highest RPI of this group (No. 12), and it finished with a winning record against SEC foes (18-17) after a 2-2 showing in Hoover. It’s certainly not a slam dunk, but we think it’s enough to make Auburn a host.

---

Bubble Watch

Before we get to the bubble, here’s a look at conferences we currently project to land multiple bids, and how we rank the teams within their conferences:

SEC (11): Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
ACC (6): Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, NC State, Louisville, Duke
Big 12 (5): Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Big Ten (5): Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois
Pac-12 (5): Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Arizona
American Athletic (4): East Carolina, UConn, South Florida, Houston
Atlantic Sun (2): Stetson, Jacksonville
C-USA (2): Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic
Sun Belt (2): Coastal Carolina, Troy

One change from yesterday: DBU replaces UCF in our field of 64.

Here’s our at-large ladder:

Last Five In

60. Washington

The Huskies entered the weekend series against Stanford needing at least two wins to have a good shot to get into the postseason field. Well, not only did the Huskies win two games, they were an out away from winning the Pac-12 crown and earning the league’s auto bid. UW is up to 63 in the RPI, which is comparable to when Oregon got into the field a few years ago. It also has a terrific 20-10 league record with a solid 10-7 mark vs. RPI Top 50.

61. Kentucky

The Wildcats didn’t move from the spot they were in entering Saturday’s conference tournament action. The resume still looks very strong with series wins over South Carolina, Georgia, Texas Tech and Auburn, along with an RPI of 31 and 16 wins vs. RPI Top 50. The committee could choose to snub the ‘Cats because of their conference record, but this resume warrants a deep dive and a spot in the postseason field.

62. Troy

The Trojans continue to take care of business at the Sun Belt tournament. They’ve played well in Lafayette over the past few days and will face Coastal Carolina on Sunday for the auto bid. The Trojans could alleviate all doubt by beating the Chanticleers, but there’s still a good chance they make the field even with a loss. The Trojans are up to 37 in the RPI and are 22-11 vs. Sun Belt opponents. If you’re looking for a hole in the resume, Troy is just 6-9 vs. Top 50 and 11-15 vs. Top 100.

63. Dallas Baptist

Let’s give the Patriots some credit. After losing the opening game of the MVC tournament to Valparaiso, DBU has stormed back to reach the title game against Missouri State. DBU has some pluses to its resume, such as an RPI of 36, 40-plus wins and a strong league mark. However, the Pats also are just 5-8 vs. RPI Top 50, while they actually have a solid 15-11 mark vs. RPI Top 100 clubs. The Pats could truly go either way at this point, but for now, they’re in by a hair.

64. Illinois

The Fighting Illini entered the Big Ten tournament needing to record a few wins, and got a pair over Indiana, while also losing bouts to the top two teams from the league — Minnesota and Purdue. Did the Illini do enough to make the postseason field? There’s absolutely a case for someone else in over the Illini, but we like what they did against the Pac 12 in non-conference play, while they also putting together a solid 17-11 league mark when you count tourney games.

First Five Out

65. Arizona

We said coming into the week the Wildcats likely would be in our field if they took care of business at Oregon. Well, Jay Johnson’s club took two of three from the Ducks to move to 15-16 in the league. The 15-16 league mark isn’t particularly impressive, but the Wildcats have a pair of high-end series wins over Oregon State (home) and UCLA (home). U of A is also 5-7 vs. RPI Top 50 and 14-15 vs. RPI Top 500. The Wildcats are one of those teams that’ll rank well with the RAC (Regional Advisory Committee), but ultimately, this one will come down to preference.

66. UCF

The Knights were the last team in our field yesterday, but have dropped down a couple of slots, thanks in part to Arizona entering the field. UCF is sitting at 42 in the RPI with solid marks in some areas — such as a 22-19 record vs. RPI Top 100. However, they also have a 10-15 mark vs. RPI Top 50 and are just 13-12 vs. American opponents. UCF has a pair of midweek wins over Florida, but lacks marquee non-conference weekend wins.

67. Northeastern

The Huskies entered Saturday just out of the field, and their status remains the same after losing to UNC Wilmington in a second tourney title game. Northeastern has an interesting postseason case. It has a strong RPI of 35, along with a solid non-conference schedule. However, the Huskies are just 3-9 vs. RPI Top 50 and 9-16 vs. RPI Top 100. Despite a strong RPI, it’s hard to imagine the Huskies getting into the field with the latter metrics. It would purely be an RPI pick.

68. Sam Houston State

The Bearkats didn’t take care of business in the Southland tournament, so they’re at the mercy of the committee. Well, it’s hard to imagine SHSU making the field at this point. SHSU has an RPI of 54, while on the positive side of things, it has accumulated 39 wins against the No. 12 non-conference SOS.

69. TCU

The Horned Frogs are sizzling hot and up to 54 in the RPI, which is an 11-spot increase over the past week, and they’re playing for the Big 12 tournament title. However, the metrics aren’t quite there. For instance, the Frogs are still an ugly 10-17 vs. RPI Top 50 and 12-18 vs. RPI Top 100. Those metrics aren’t going to cut it unless the committee is overwhelmed by their performance in Oklahoma City.

Stolen Bid Watch

Big 12: Baylor is easily in the field, while it would be a huge surprise if TCU is included. Therefore, bubble teams do not want TCU to win the league’s automatic bid.

Big East: St. John’s faces off with Seton Hall today. The Johnnies are still in great shape here, as the Pirates must beat Ed Blankmeyer’s club twice to win the Big East automatic bid. But if the unthinkable happens ….

Conference USA: Charlotte forced a rematch with Southern Miss on one side of the C-USA bracket, while FAU helped bubble teams with a win over Rice to advance to the tourney title game. Charlotte would have to beat USM again, then turn around and beat FAU later in the day. That seems improbable, but is worth watching. Again, the Niners could steal a bid.

Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech is locked into the field, so bubble teams need the Golden Eagles to beat Morehead State today. The Golden Eagles dropped a tough decision to Morehead on Saturday, and the two teams now have a rematch.

Missouri Valley: DBU could pretty much go either way on the bubble right now, so a win over Missouri State would be bad news for other aspiring bubble teams. The Pats could still get into the field with a loss to the Bears, but it will be close.

 

 

[ellitor 33,081]

33 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Troy vs Coastal Carolina: a Troy win bumps Coastal down a bit in the hosting discussion and should help our RPI slightly. At this point, any little bit helps. 

Purdue vs Minnesota: Minnesota is very close to us in RPI. A Minnesota win would bump us to 14 in the RPI. So a Purdue win is ideal to help keep us at 13. 

CRAP! If Purdue wins & Coastal wins we would only be 3 RPI spots from each other, 14 & 17. I don't like our odds in that scenario w/ Coastal being the Sun Belt regular season & Tourney champs. COME ON TROY!!!!!

Also I respectfully disagree on Louisville because of the Coastal factor. I don't think they have a real shot to host regardless. If the Cards win & Coastal loses that pushes Coastal down to 24 in the RPI. I want them as far away from us as possible.

[boomstick 1,315]

8 minutes ago, ellitor said:

CRAP! If Purdue wins & Coastal wins we would only be 3 RPI spots from each other, 14 & 17. I don't like our odds in that scenario w/ Coastal being the Sun Belt regular season & Tourney champs. COME ON TROY!!!!!

Also I respectfully disagree on Louisville because of the Coastal factor. I don't think they have a real shot to host regardless. If the Cards win & Coastal loses that pushes Coastal down to 24 in the RPI. I want them as far away from us as possible.

Yeah, we really need Troy to win. And the only reason I mentioned Louisville is because the talking heads started mentioning them. I don’t think their resume is strong enough, but if some media are considering them who follow this closer than I do, I figure they’re worth mentioning.  

[ellitor 33,081]

45 minutes ago, boomstick said:

if some media are considering them who follow this closer than I do, I figure they’re worth mentioning

No doubt.

[BJCrawford 1,568]

Watching the FSU Louisville game. Wondering why FSU left this pitcher in so long! Thought FSU was running away at first. Know I need to pull for FSU for Auburn’s sake, but really cant stand FSU 

[ellitor 33,081]

Troy is up 1 to 0 through one inning. They should’ve scored more though.

[ellitor 33,081]

Coastal tiesthe game at one. Supposedly they got lucky with that run because the runner was supposedly out on a steal attempt at second but was called safe. the play was not reviewed.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Well it was a nice idea, but Coastal is blowing out Troy 9-2. I think we’re in over them either way, but committee could always see it differently. RPI, SOS, and wins vs TOP 50 and Top 100 are much better for Auburn. Hope a conference championship doesn’t matter as much 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Some good news: 

Florida State just took an 11-8 lead on Louisville in the Top of the 10th, meaning Lousiville’s hosting chances are slim now. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Could someone answer the question of shun UCONN would be picked to host over us? Worse record against a worse strength of schedule. They didn’t win their conference championship, and their quadrant win are not what ours are. I just have trouble seeing any reason why they should be a higher seed than us 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

48 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Could someone answer the question of shun UCONN would be picked to host over us? Worse record against a worse strength of schedule. They didn’t win their conference championship, and their quadrant win are not what ours are. I just have trouble seeing any reason why they should be a higher seed than us 

The NCAA has openly stated that in an effort to grow the popularity of college baseball, they will go to "non-traditional" places for regionals if things are close to equal.

[AU64 10,122]

Guess everyone has an opinion but this one has us 14th and hosting...

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/2018-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-date-schedule-projected-field-sunday

If NCAA is looking for non-traditional places for regionals....that would be us    

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

D1Baseball just tweeted their projected hosts and we are not on there. They have UCONN and Coastal on there though. I disagree with us being behind those two....

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Want to make sure I say it before hand- it will be a travesty is Auburn is left out of a regional host spot behind UCONN and Coastal Carolina 

[boomstick 1,315]

6 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

D1Baseball just tweeted their projected hosts and we are not on there. They have UCONN and Coastal on there though. I disagree with us being behind those two....

If they get host spots, it’s because of the small school/“grow the game” initiative. If it’s strictly by the numbers or if the numbers mean anything, we’re a better team than either of them and should host

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Just now, boomstick said:

If they get host spots, it’s because of the small school/“grow the game” initiative. If it’s strictly by the numbers, we’re a better team than either of them. 

Better resume. Much better than both of them. Coastal, I maybe could see because they are a conference champion, but in no way should UCONN host over us. We have a significant edge in every statistical RPI category and we play in a tougher conference. Man that reasoning will have me upset if that happens 

[SCTiger2011 1,277]

Not a host...just released