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Softball: The Future


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3 hours ago, Proud Tiger said:

Bummer losing by 1 in two games in a row. Season over

Pretty much describes this team against quality teams ... pitchers keep it close and we can't score a few runs at a time to win them.  

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9 hours ago, AUBwins said:

Pretty much describes this team against quality teams ... pitchers keep it close and we can't score a few runs at a time to win them.  

Agree. We need to recruit some hitters.

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2 hours ago, Proud Tiger said:

Agree. We need to recruit some hitters.

Or hire a coach who can teach them.  I know Ketelhut was a late addition and that didn't help our situation, but there was NO improvement during the season with our situational hitting.  From start to finish, we couldn't hit.  When you work with players every day, you study film, you work with players to find issues with their swing or stance any number of things, you expect to see some improvement over a period of 5 months.  There was nothing.  We had 5 girls who started at least 10 SEC games who hit below .200 in conference games and Victoria Draper barely hit over .200 at .203.  That's two thirds of the batting order getting hits less than 20% of the time.  Pitching and defense were good enough to win, but our hitting was absolutely horrible.

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44 minutes ago, saminbama said:

Or hire a coach who can teach them.  I know Ketelhut was a late addition and that didn't help our situation, but there was NO improvement during the season with our situational hitting.  From start to finish, we couldn't hit.  When you work with players every day, you study film, you work with players to find issues with their swing or stance any number of things, you expect to see some improvement over a period of 5 months.  There was nothing.  We had 5 girls who started at least 10 SEC games who hit below .200 in conference games and Victoria Draper barely hit over .200 at .203.  That's two thirds of the batting order getting hits less than 20% of the time.  Pitching and defense were good enough to win, but our hitting was absolutely horrible.

Or recognize Victoria's skill set as mentioned earlier.  Yet we continue to tell her to slap it at the 3rd baseman on a defense with 3 defenders on that side of the field. The chop into the ground with the high bounce, safe every time

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3 hours ago, saminbama said:

Or hire a coach who can teach them.  I know Ketelhut was a late addition and that didn't help our situation, but there was NO improvement during the season with our situational hitting.  From start to finish, we couldn't hit.  When you work with players every day, you study film, you work with players to find issues with their swing or stance any number of things, you expect to see some improvement over a period of 5 months.  There was nothing.  We had 5 girls who started at least 10 SEC games who hit below .200 in conference games and Victoria Draper barely hit over .200 at .203.  That's two thirds of the batting order getting hits less than 20% of the time.  Pitching and defense were good enough to win, but our hitting was absolutely horrible.

Season                Record                  Conference                        ERA                        BA                          HR          Errors

2013                       30-23                     7-17                                       3.52                        .340                        32           60-79                    

2014                       42-19-1                 11-13                                     3.31                        .358                        83           35-76

2015                       56-11                     18-6                                       3.41                        .391                        99           45-78

2016                       59-12                     16-7                                       1.61                        .374                        89           63-110

2017                       49-12                     17-7                                       1.67                        .334                        51           56-53

2018                       41-17                     11-12                                     1.37                        .317                        43           39-55

Above chart shows overall win/loss and conference win loss.  The ERA figure is an average of the 2 primary pitchers for that season.  The Batting Average is the average of the top 5 line up batters for the entire season.  Errors AU vs opponents.   To get more detail than this was not work than I wanted to endure.  Stats can be deceiving but sometimes can be revealing; not sure in the case above.  Seems clear that we had very good hitting 2014- 2016 (good ol' days).  . There seemed to be 3 main reasons for this: Cooper, Carosone and Howard.  They were in the list of top 5 hitters each of those seasons.  Sprinkle in a little Rhodes, Fagan, Estell, and Draper and you have an effective offensive recipe. Many on team prior to Myers arrival or prior staff recruits..   It seems that as pitching began to improve the hitting (especially HR) began to decline.  I have wondered if this represented a change in philosophy.  We all know the mantra that you do not win championships without good pitching and defense and Myers philosophy about pitching to contact.

  Clearly we want great pitchers but could we have been recruiting other players based more on defensive skills over their hitting skills.  Do you have a better chance of making a better defensive player out of a good hitter or a better hitter out of a good defensive player?   Clearly someone good at both is desired.  Maybe someone who knows something about softball coaching could chime in with their viewpoint.  

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Don't know coaching but appreciate the work on the stats comparison.   Seems that last year's stats might be considered in light of what all was going on with the team and maybe not representative of the offensive players we had....I'm thinking Cooper in particular, who was exceptional the year before and definitely fell off last year.  The overall average was not great that year but we had three or four hitters in the .300 range for the SEC season.

That .317 BA looks hard to believe with the sub .200 batters and only one starter hitting over .300 this year. ...

stats on the site show conference batting average of .211 and our effective offensive ERA was 2.21

http://www.auburntigers.com/sports/w-softbl/stats/2017-2018/teamcume.html'

 

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Never coached at the college level, but coached many years of travel ball and H.S. ball. Athletes, like all humans, resist change, particularly if there is turmoil associated with change. Clint came into a program that previously had low expectations and rapidly taught the players how to win. He EXPECTED them to win, and convinced THEM to expect to win. He was a genius, the players immediately bought in to his coaching style, and the players were hungry for success. Dean came into a program that had become accustomed to winning, and winning big games. There was turmoil on the team because of the situation with Corey and the departure of Clint. Dean has a different approach to the game, does not have the name recognition or the "it" factor of Myers in the sport, and has not yet shown the ability to "connect" with the players. He may turn into a great asset for the program, or he may not. Let's face it, JMU is not in the same universe as the SEC in sports competition Hopefully he is a fast learner and a better communicator than he has shown so far. Unless/until he gets the support of the players by demonstrating that he knows what he is doing, and having them trust that he knows what he is doing, the program will continue to spiral into mediocrity.

Examples: Carlson often shaking her head at Dean's pitch calling sequence during the regionals.  Martin seemed, via her body language, lost and frustrated by the end of the season. Both are premiere pitchers, and Dean is supposed to be a pitching guru. The point is, I don't think that he ever gained their trust, regardless of what they may have said in interviews or what commentators might have said. If players don't trust and respect the knowledge of their coaches, seasons seldom turn out well.

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32 minutes ago, AU64 said:

That .317 BA looks hard to believe with the sub .200 batters and only one starter hitting over .300 this year. ...

Yeah, I believe that BA is entire season.  Skewed a little by Vic's .373 average and Makayla Martin's .333 average where she was 1-3 for the season.  

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You are correct; our conference batting was very poor with top 5 batters average of .250. As I stated, my stats are based on the season stats.

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12 minutes ago, saminbama said:

Yeah, I believe that BA is entire season.  Skewed a little by Vic's .373 average and Makayla Martin's .333 average where she was 1-3 for the season.  

The team average was about .280 but lots of that was accomplished early in the year against OOC teams.     Every SEC team has at least one really good pitcher and we did not have much success against them.  Yet.....we were able to get runners on base via walks and some hits....but just could not move them along. 

Good commentary from Hspop.........I'm afraid we are going to lose some talent between seasons and not sure CMD is enough of a recruiter to make up for it.  This is a tough league and lots of good coaches with name recognition in the sport. 

Sitting home while most of the conference has moved along into the super- regionals is not good for our program at this point.

 

AU stats for SEC...  http://www.auburntigers.com/sports/w-softbl/stats/2017-2018/teamcume.html

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Some very good comments above.  Auburn is the only SEC team not to make the regional final.  Meanwhile, FSU, whom we played toe-to-toe, beat JSU 18-0 over 2 games, allowing 2 hits total.  Something out of kilter there.

And I think you can teach most anyone to be a good fielder.  Hitting way more difficult, IMO.

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7 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Some very good comments above.  Auburn is the only SEC team not to make the regional final.  Meanwhile, FSU, whom we played toe-to-toe, beat JSU 18-0 over 2 games, allowing 2 hits total.  Something out of kilter there.

And I think you can teach most anyone to be a good fielder.  Hitting way more difficult, IMO.

I agree 100% . You can teach a smart, aggressive team approach to hitting or so forth, but most players are either good hitters or they aren't. For instance, when the MLB scouts found Hank Aaron, he was batting cross-handed and was still crushing the ball.

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39 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I agree 100% . You can teach a smart, aggressive team approach to hitting or so forth, but most players are either good hitters or they aren't. For instance, when the MLB scouts found Hank Aaron, he was batting cross-handed and was still crushing the ball.

There are a ton of articles and even schools on the mental aspects of hitting.....and watching many of our kids, I wonder if there are some problems there....lack of confidence, conflicting instructions, etc.    I'm guessing that all of the AU softball players were very good hitters in HS or they would not be on campus....and it's not just the higher level of pitching making a difference now IMO.    

 

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13 hours ago, AU64 said:

The team average was about .280 but lots of that was accomplished early in the year against OOC teams.     Every SEC team has at least one really good pitcher and we did not have much success against them.  Yet.....we were able to get runners on base via walks and some hits....but just could not move them along. 

Good commentary from Hspop.........I'm afraid we are going to lose some talent between seasons and not sure CMD is enough of a recruiter to make up for it.  This is a tough league and lots of good coaches with name recognition in the sport. 

Sitting home while most of the conference has moved along into the super- regionals is not good for our program at this point.

 

AU stats for SEC...  http://www.auburntigers.com/sports/w-softbl/stats/2017-2018/teamcume.html

Good points. This year certainly feels like a regression for the program. While hitting had declined some over that last couple of years under Myers, I thought the team competed at a high level. I did not get that sense from this team especially as the year came to an end.

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32 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

Good points. This year certainly feels like a regression for the program. While hitting had declined some over that last couple of years under Myers, I thought the team competed at a high level. I did not get that sense from this team especially as the year came to an end.

Just noting that Draper and Rivera dropped more than 100 points on SEC play this year.    Team average fell a bit last year due to some graduations but I think Shea was the only player to hit better than season than last season. 

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This is a really good discussion and felt like it should be in its own thread, so I split these out of the game thread  to further the discussion.

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Since we are discussing the future of the program, does anyone know if Savanna Sikes is still going to sign with us for the 2019 class? I can only find 3 players so far who are definite commits, and she is not among them. Supposedly she (Sikes) hit 2 homers against Barnhill in High School.

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10 hours ago, AU64 said:

There are a ton of articles and even schools on the mental aspects of hitting.....and watching many of our kids, I wonder if there are some problems there....lack of confidence, conflicting instructions, etc.    I'm guessing that all of the AU softball players were very good hitters in HS or they would not be on campus....and it's not just the higher level of pitching making a difference now IMO.    

 

Ashlee Swindle had 0 ABs this season.  Her HS Senior season stats were .557 Average with 13 homers and 86 RBIs.

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The young lady from California who transferred away after her ACL injury.....sounds like someone we will miss. Not necessarily indicative of anything regarding CMD but wondering if we will retain any of our contacts with the lucrative California softball programs.  Big population and a strong sport out there..... 

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3 minutes ago, around4ever said:

Ashlee Swindle had 0 ABs this season.  Her HS Senior season stats were .557 Average with 13 homers and 86 RBIs.

What happened to Chardonnay Harris late in the year?   She looked pretty good and then seemed to disappear.

Also...a delicate question.   The Snow sisters don't appear to be equally talented.....is it necessary that both of them start? 

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2 minutes ago, AU64 said:

The young lady from California who transferred away after her ACL injury.....sounds like someone we will miss. Not necessarily indicative of anything regarding CMD but wondering if we will retain any of our contacts with the lucrative California softball programs.  Big population and a strong sport out there..... 

Coach Myers was very good at recruiting California.  I guess it remains to be seen how Coach Dean will do in recruiting in general.  Honestly, I don't see the personality to go into a home and sell the girls and parents on how great it will be for them at Auburn.  But, he did recruit fairly well at JMU. 

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2 minutes ago, AU64 said:

What happened to Chardonnay Harris late in the year?   She looked pretty good and then seemed to disappear.

Also...a delicate question.   The Snow sisters don't appear to be equally talented.....is it necessary that both of them start? 

Good questions.   Taylon is a solid SS but needs to work on her arm strength.  I don't see Tannon ever being more than a DH or PH with her health issues and her lack of speed.   I agree about Harris.  I pencilled her in as #2 starter next season (that is if Martin comes back). 

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11 minutes ago, around4ever said:

Coach Myers was very good at recruiting California.  I guess it remains to be seen how Coach Dean will do in recruiting in general.  Honestly, I don't see the personality to go into a home and sell the girls and parents on how great it will be for them at Auburn.  But, he did recruit fairly well at JMU. 

Looking at his roster...almost all from Virginia ...and a region where college softball was not a big deal.  And JMO but he made a good part of his record at JMU on the basis of Megan Good.....who was better than Good.     

How about this...99-9 career with ERA under 1.0  for three seasons...

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10 minutes ago, around4ever said:

Coach Myers was very good at recruiting California.  I guess it remains to be seen how Coach Dean will do in recruiting in general.  Honestly, I don't see the personality to go into a home and sell the girls and parents on how great it will be for them at Auburn.  But, he did recruit fairly well at JMU. 

Not as good as you think.  Take away the transfer CA natives and very minimal, although talented.  As our facilities continue to improve we will be able to recruit anywhere in the country.  Nobody has a clue how well Dean can recruit at a large scale level.  What is proven is that he can get results with very minimal recruiting assets and budget.  We all just need to sit back and see how a full season is gonna go for him.  Will he make any staff changes?   Will there be attrition?  Will we get some transfers?  One thing that we did have was a team that was united and nothing like last years.  Offensively I saw a continuation  of the year before.  I also thought the team was way to left handed and it showed against tough lefties like King.

My main thing is that Coach Dean has shown me no signs of being in over his head or any reason to give me doubts at this point.

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