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Softball: The Future


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30 minutes ago, around4ever said:

Ashlee Swindle had 0 ABs this season.  Her HS Senior season stats were .557 Average with 13 homers and 86 RBIs.

And it's not like she needed to spend a lot of time prepping for late inning work as a pitcher.  She was rarely used.  Thought she would be used more. 

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11 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

My main thing is that Coach Dean has shown me no signs of being in over his head or any reason to give me doubts at this point.

Not so sure about handling the SEC.......

As for a united team...not sure I saw that either.....

But as they say....time will tell....

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4 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Not so sure about handling the SEC.......

As for a united team...not sure I saw that either.....

But as they say....time will tell....

got any proof?

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58 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

got any proof?

no more than you...just my opinions from observing the coaching decisions and players during the season. 

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29 minutes ago, AU64 said:

no more than you...just my opinions from observing the coaching decisions and players during the season. 

one of their mothers would disagree with you

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1 minute ago, auburnphan said:

one of their mothers would disagree with you

I can accept that but sometimes parents are not fully objective...either way.  JMO....been a parent my self back in the day.... 

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3 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I can accept that but sometimes parents are not fully objective...either way.  JMO....been a parent my self back in the day.... 

Fair enough, wasn't able to watch many games this year myself. 

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10 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

Fair enough, wasn't able to watch many games this year myself. 

We are fortunate to see any of them.....the SEC channel opened up a whole new world to me on AU sports.....was your basic football and basketball fan.....some baseball but that was about it.   The SEC channel and the streaming made it possible for me to start following softball and it has become one of my favorites....one of the few college sports that seems to be played for fun by amateur athletes.  I 'm retired and can schedule what I do.....so have been able to watch most game this year once things got really serious and someone had them on TV.   I see you live in Wisc.....nice to have some AU fans that far north.   

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2 hours ago, auburnphan said:

My main thing is that Coach Dean has shown me no signs of being in over his head or any reason to give me doubts at this point.

21 minutes ago, auburnphan said:

Fair enough, wasn't able to watch many games this year myself. 

?

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Wondered about that . . . I saw what looked like a new topic, then realized I had read all these posts previously.  I was putting it down to my CRS until I saw the final post.

McCrackin and Draper both had significantly higher averages this year than last.  Rivera dropped 86 points.  Veach and Podany stayed within 1 point of last year.  Talking season,not just SEC.  If you recall, Clint left Rivera in Auburn when we went to Florida last year.  That's her home state.  That got her attention, and she quit swinging for the fences all the time.  Consequently she led the team with a .371 average, and 11 doubles and 3 homers.  This year with Clint gone, she went back to fence-swinging, and hit .285 with 9 doubles, 1 triple, and 9 homers.   Bear in mind she only started about 60% of our games last year, but most of the conference games.  Now get these numbers:  Rivera hit .345 in conference play last year, and .191 this year.  Someone needs to get her attention again.

I think there is a synergy in hitting, such that getting two doubles, or even a double and a single, may be worth more than a solo homer.  It affects your teammates, it affects the opposing pitcher.  Hits beget hits.  If a pitcher gives up a solo homer, and otherwise gets 3 outs in an inning, she'll think, "Well, s***,  I left that one a little high"  and return to her business.  If three batters out of 4 get outfield singles, she'll start to wonder what she's doing wrong.  Her coach will send somebody to the bullpen.  Doubt will be created.  Doubt on their part begets hits on our part.

OK, stepping down.

 

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For the flip side, I did see a number of things that give me cause for concern. After Pawloski's first season, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach because I was pretty sure we were in for several seasons of mediocre baseball. I now have that feeling again, this time about softball. I could go into details, but I'll stick to results. Ninth (9) seed in SEC tournament and that's out of 12 teams.. Ninth out of 12 is weak by any standards. Lost first game in SEC tournament to bammer. First SEC team eliminated in the NCAA tournament. Eliminated by Jax State. That's what we got out of two of the country's top pitchers. Dismal results compared to pre-season hopes/expectations.

Three players we really need to keep are McCrackin, Veach and Martin. They are rising seniors so they should stick with AU unless they really hated being on this year's team. Rivera and Perry are two sophs we need to keep, but they could bolt.

I've simply got a feeling that we are headed downhill. I don't think Coach Dean can maintain what Coach Meyers built. Of course, I hope I'm wrong but my sense of the future is not good..

PS: The body language of our players was not what it had been in prior years. That's as close as we fans can get to seeing how team morale is, but it didn't look great.

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As I said before, CMD did a poor job giving players a fair shot - only 11 players on the team had 30+ ABs,  plus Olszewski with 29 and Bree Fornis with 10. Tissier, who might be our starting catcher next year got 9 ABs, including 0 in conference play. Give Swindle or MaKayla a shot as well.

There are signs CMD is rash, emotional and impulsive. His body language when Perry blew threw his imo late and subtle stop sign (throwing up his hands like a child denied candy by his mom), then benching her despite the Tiger's offensive struggles (I know she sucked in SEC play, but you can't ignore her vv good non-conference stats). He also insta-cut Livy Schiele when she wanted to explore transfer options - I know you want players fully committed but given the last minute coaching change [she was a Myers recruit] and Auburn's need for talent, I feel like being a little lenient and doing something that allows the possibility that she stays on the team would have been more prudent.

1 hour ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Wondered about that . . . I saw what looked like a new topic, then realized I had read all these posts previously.  I was putting it down to my CRS until I saw the final post.

McCrackin and Draper both had significantly higher averages this year than last.  Rivera dropped 86 points.  Veach and Podany stayed within 1 point of last year.  Talking season,not just SEC.  If you recall, Clint left Rivera in Auburn when we went to Florida last year.  That's her home state.  That got her attention, and she quit swinging for the fences all the time.  Consequently she led the team with a .371 average, and 11 doubles and 3 homers.  This year with Clint gone, she went back to fence-swinging, and hit .285 with 9 doubles, 1 triple, and 9 homers.   Bear in mind she only started about 60% of our games last year, but most of the conference games.  Now get these numbers:  Rivera hit .345 in conference play last year, and .191 this year.  Someone needs to get her attention again.

 

Veach's SLG% dropped 100 points though, and while Podany's SLG% increased slightly, her OBP% dropped a lot. I really like Podany but I think her fielding can't make up for her bat against pitchers who can throw a lot of strikes (ie in the SEC).

I think expecting Rivera to repeat her 2017 stats (esp SEC stats) was probably optimistic, but she really seemed out of control this year. She started out fence-swinging as you said, often finishing her swing with one hand instead of the two she used on almost every swing last year), then eventually calmed down before getting back out of control for the playoffs. She was also making some ill advised throws from the outfield, plus the dive towards the line on FSU's walkoff ISTP HR.

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

For the flip side, I did see a number of things that give me cause for concern. After Pawloski's first season, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach because I was pretty sure we were in for several seasons of mediocre baseball. I now have that feeling again, this time about softball. I could go into details, but I'll stick to results. Ninth (9) seed in SEC tournament and that's out of 12 teams.. Ninth out of 12 is weak by any standards. Lost first game in SEC tournament to bammer. First SEC team eliminated in the NCAA tournament. Eliminated by Jax State. That's what we got out of two of the country's top pitchers. Dismal results compared to pre-season hopes/expectations.

Three players we really need to keep are McCrackin, Veach and Martin. They are rising seniors so they should stick with AU unless they really hated being on this year's team. Rivera and Perry are two sophs we need to keep, but they could bolt.

I've simply got a feeling that we are headed downhill. I don't think Coach Dean can maintain what Coach Meyers built. Of course, I hope I'm wrong but my sense of the future is not good..

Taylon and Rivera are also solid assets, while JP, Podany and KK still provide me with hope. The pitching won't be Carlson good, but we're still pretty deep in the circle.

The bad news is that the incoming freshman look like "defenders" again.

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 I feel a lot of sympathy for the players and families from CA and MN.  They committed when Myers was here, then get the old switcheroo after they enroll.  I think the Snow sisters, Perry, and Martin might be the most likely to leave.  Maybe not Martin, as she has pitched in a championship game, and will be a senior and the #1 pitcher.  But she doesn't seem to like Dean much.  Taylon's bat would probably get her on a roster somewhere, but not so sure about Tannon and Justus. Their numbers aren't that good.  There is also the transfer problem with Tannon, who has already transferred once.  You can only transfer once without sitting out a year.  Does 2017 count as a sit-out year?  She didn't play in the season, but went through fall and spring practice.  We should find out how it shakes out within the next month.

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6 hours ago, OlderWhiskey said:

 I feel a lot of sympathy for the players and families from CA and MN.  They committed when Myers was here, then get the old switcheroo after they enroll.  I think the Snow sisters, Perry, and Martin might be the most likely to leave.  Maybe not Martin, as she has pitched in a championship game, and will be a senior and the #1 pitcher.  But she doesn't seem to like Dean much.  Taylon's bat would probably get her on a roster somewhere, but not so sure about Tannon and Justus. Their numbers aren't that good.  There is also the transfer problem with Tannon, who has already transferred once.  You can only transfer once without sitting out a year.  Does 2017 count as a sit-out year?  She didn't play in the season, but went through fall and spring practice.  We should find out how it shakes out within the next month.

Yes, she didn't play in 2017 so it's a sit-out (redshirt) year. Travel, practice and so forth don't matter in that respect. Participation in official games is all that matters. Now, I think she'd have to sit another year if she transfers. A "before the fact" sit-out wouldn't count with regards to the transfer rule. At least it wouldn't in other sports where this is more common and has been tested.

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Some good discussion....lots of speculation of course but also some reasonable analysis and comparisons of the past two years.   As for player performance, I'm inclined to put the major emphasis on SEC stats since that is the league we play in and the teams we have to match up to on the field.  As noted, we finished in the bottom half of the field and were one of the few SEC teams to play in a Regional and not advance to the Supers.  

Some projected us down there before the season started but being underestimated has not stopped AU teams in the past.    Usually one could expect some improvement in the stats as a player gains experience from year to year and that showed up a bit for couple players, but overall,  most starters and key subs did not improve from 2017 to 2018.  

I can't imagine what the season would have looked like if we did not have TWO nationally ranked pitchers.   Those ladies were a great joy to watch compete in the circle and every time they went out, they knew they could not make a serious mistake.....a ton of pressure on both of them to be perfect.. Really gonna miss Carlson next season. 

Nobody is talking pulling the plug on CMD but I'm guessing he will be on the hot seat for next season and in the meantime,  many of us will be watching to see what coaching changes he makes and how he is able to do with recruiting. 

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now.com

3 questions facing Auburn softball as it enters first offseason under Mickey Dean | Softball

Josh Vitale | AU Writer Follow on Twitter Like on Facebook

6-8 minutes

Eight months after first arriving on the Plains, Mickey Dean is just now entering his first offseason as Auburn’s head coach.

The Tigers’ 2018 season — a 41-win campaign — came to an end Saturday with a 2-1 loss to Florida State and 3-2 loss to Jacksonville State in an NCAA Regional in Tallahassee, Fla.

Now, Dean will set out to truly begin building his program.

There are parallels between what he went through this season and what Auburn baseball coach Butch Thompson went through in his first season three years ago. Like Dean, who was hired after the sudden retirement of Clint Myers in late August, Thompson didn’t have the benefit of a full offseason with the Tigers, as he didn’t get named head coach until late October after the firing of Sunny Golloway.

Thompson inherited a team that went an NCAA Regional in 2015 before and fell short of guiding it both back to that level and even to the SEC Tournament after 23-33 season in 2016. Dean inherited a team that had hosted three consecutive Super Regionals and didn’t get it back to that same level this season.

The baseball team went back to a Regional in 2017 and came within an out of advancing to a Super Regional. Dean is hoping his softball team can have a similar rebound in Year 2.

“We’re going to sit down as a staff, we’re going to sit down those players who are returning. We’ll have a team meeting and individual meetings when we get back,” Dean said of his offseason plans. “We’re going to set some standards and some goals, and that’s where we’ll go.”

Here are three questions facing Auburn as it turns its attention toward the 2019 season:

1) What went wrong on offense, and how can it be fixed?

The defining statistic of Auburn’s 2018 season might be its record in close games. In a 41-17 season, the Tigers went 4-10 in one-run games. In a 49-12 season last year, they went 10-4 in such contests. And the problem certainly wasn’t pitching, as Auburn finished 2018 ranked second in the SEC in overall ERA (1.33) and conference ERA (1.85) behind only Florida.

But it’s not quite as simple as saying Auburn was worse on offense in 2018 than it was in 2017. This year’s team actually hit for a higher average (.281) than last year’s (.277), but it scored 37 fewer runs in just three fewer games played. The biggest culprits appear to be the type of hits the Tigers were recording and what situations they recorded them in. Myers’ last team totaled 75 doubles, 15 triples and 51 home runs. Dean’s first finished with just 61, 12 and 42, respectively, which is a decrease of 26 extra-base hits overall. The 2017 team hit .294 with runners in scoring position, .613 with a runner on third and less than two outs, and .303 with bases loaded in 822 total chances. The 2018 team batted .297, .578 and .260 in the same situations, respectively, and generated 76 fewer chances.

Auburn will have to use the offseason to examine whether those decreases came as a result of talent on the field or coaching. The losses of standouts Kasey Cooper, Carlee Wallace and Haley Fagan — who accounted for 52 percent of the team’s home runs and 43 percent of its RBIs last year — certainly played a role, but the effect of a change in philosophy between Myers and Dean and three hitting coaches in less than a year probably can’t be discounted.

2) How does Auburn fill the holes in its lineup?

Auburn’s isn’t facing a task quite as daunting as replacing Cooper, Wallace and Fagan, but filling the holes left by the graduations of Victoria Draper and Courtney Shea will be no small feat. Not only were they two of the team’s biggest leaders; they were also standout everyday defenders and two of its best producers on offense — the center fielder batted a team-best .386 and stole a program-record 37 bases, and the catcher hit .297 with five home runs and a team-leading 33 RBIs.

The Tigers do have in-house options at both spots, though. Kendall Veach served as the team’s No. 2 catcher behind Shea early in the season and could be looked to as an option behind the plate as a senior after batting .245 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs as a junior. Auburn could still fill out its corner infield spots with a mix of Makenna Dowell (.195, 5 RBIs), Justus Perry (.284, 5 HR, 31 RBIs before being taken out of the lineup down the stretch) and Tannon Snow (.221, 6 HR, 31 RBIs), who could be ready to resume playing the field after serving solely as the team’s designated player this year. Auburn could also take a look at rising sophomore Abby Tissier and incoming freshmen Aspyn Godwin and Haley Nillen.

In the outfield, Auburn could look to starting left fielder Morgan Podany (.217, 1 HR, 17 RBIs) or any number of reserves — including Bree Fornis (.300, 1 RBI), Jenna Olszewski (.241, 2 HR, 6 RBIs) and KK Crocker (.342, 16 RBIs), who practiced some left field late in the season — to fill the hole left by Draper. The Tigers also have a local product in Trussville native Tate Moseley signed at the position, and Carmyn Greenwood (who platooned with Podany in 2017) should be back after an injury redshirt year in 2018.

3) What will life be like without Kaylee Carlson?

It will not be as good as it was with her, for sure. Auburn has plenty of talented pitchers on its roster, but the senior was their unquestioned leader. She pitched in a team-high 34 games, made a team-high 24 starts and went 21-6 with a sterling 1.35 ERA en route to becoming the program’s all-time wins leader despite dealing with an injury for much of the season.

The Tigers still have an ace in rising senior Makayla Martin, who ranked second on the team with 30 appearances (23 starts) and went 15-6 with a 1.25 ERA. But they will need one or more of Chardonnay Harris (3-2, 1.83 ERA in 18 appearances), Ashlee Swindle (2-1, 1.43 ERA in 15 appearances), or Kara Bilodeau (0-0. 0.00 ERA in 10 appearances) — or any potential newcomers — to step forward and give Dean additional arms he can rely on in any situation.

Josh Vitale is the Auburn beat writer for the Opelika-Auburn News. You can follow him on Twitter at @AUBlog. To reach him by email, click here.

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52 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

A meaty article from Josh.  What's this injury that Carlson had?

i have no idea but i am sure someone will know whats up.

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No secret we had decline in batting last year which continued into this year (all games).  Looking at conference stats we ranked last in BA just barely below Ole Miss.  Alabama ranked 2nd.  In ERA we had great pitching (no secret there) and were 2nd in conference ERA.  Alabama was 7th.  In fielding % we ranked 5th while Bama was last.  Three teams from the SEC  who qualified for super regionals; Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee finished below AU in Fielding % as well ERA but finished 1, 2, and 4 respectively in batting average.  All this to wonder if we have recruited with emphasis on pitching and fielding (mainly fielding since pitchers don't typically bat) at the expense of hitting.  Maybe you can tolerate more errors in exchange for better hitting?  Earlier this year I felt the AU players looked "athletic" and some teams had some "large" players who at best could turn a Rivera double into a lumbering single.  Now I see that some are not there for fielding skills but rather in the hopes that they blast a ball through the infield, hit a sac fly or a HR.  If they get on first put in a sub base runner.  I am not saying we need players with Paul Anderson physiques, but maybe more emphasis on hitting abilities rather than fielding abilities.  I am not convinced we need a new hitting coach....maybe we need to recruit hitters.  

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17 hours ago, Hspoprn said:

Since we are discussing the future of the program, does anyone know if Savanna Sikes is still going to sign with us for the 2019 class? I can only find 3 players so far who are definite commits, and she is not among them. Supposedly she (Sikes) hit 2 homers against Barnhill in High School.

Savanna Sikes signed with UGA; but she is the 2018 class.  She will be at fall practice in Athens this year.  As I understand it, we originally had 6 commits for the 2018 class, Sikes among them.  Two others switched schools (Out West, I think) after the Myers debacle, leaving the three currently expected; Godwin, Moseley, and Nillen.

As far as Dean and doubt:  Auburnphan, were you watching the first conference game of the year in BR?  Bottom 14, Andrews on second, two outs, Amanda Doyle coming to the plate?  LSU's best hitter, who has been striking the ball well all night?  Why would you pitch to her there?  Put her on first where she's meaningless.  Of course, we pitched to her, she got a hit, Andrews scored, LSU won the game.  That gave me doubt.  Now, I'm still willing to give Dean another year before being too negative.  But I certainly have some doubts.

I wondered about Harris, also.  She was the third pitcher in most of the season, then we didn't see her late in the season.  Maybe an undisclosed ijury?
 

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59 minutes ago, OlderWhiskey said:

Savanna Sikes signed with UGA; but she is the 2018 class. 

Thanks. Wish we had gotten her.

As noted in a previous post somewhere on the forum, it is almost impossible to teach a player how to swing the bat at this stage of their career. It is, however, the responsibility of the coach to instruct them WHEN to swing the bat, and when NOT to swing the bat. Draper getting the go-ahead to swing at pitches with a 3-0 count is the coaches responsibility., and was simply foolish. If she ignored a "take" sign from a coach, she should have been on the bench. Teaching batters to not swing at pitches that bounce in the dirt before the pitch reaches home plate is also the coaches responsibility - Practice sessions and a little bench time works wonders for this ( see post re: Rivera -- If she is taught plate discipline, she will be an All-American).

Will be watching with interest how well Dean recruits, and what the off-season brings.

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Whiskey, I remember that game with LSU and recall thinking the same thing.  In fact I made the bold prognostication aloud to my wife....."No way we pitch to Doyle"  

Regarding Harris, I know she has a history of chronic back problems and that may be the issue.  Some have mentioned the arm strength of Taylon Snow.  When I say her at practice early in the season she threw with much more force and straight trajectory.  She did injure her right shoulder and still had some sort of wrap/brace on it during the regionals.  

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4 minutes ago, Hspoprn said:

Thanks. Wish we had gotten her.

As noted in a previous post somewhere on the forum, it is almost impossible to teach a player how to swing the bat at this stage of their career. It is, however, the responsibility of the coach to instruct them WHEN to swing the bat, and when NOT to swing the bat. Draper getting the go-ahead to swing at pitches with a 3-0 count is the coaches responsibility., and was simply foolish. If she ignored a "take" sign from a coach, she should have been on the bench. Teaching batters to not swing at pitches that bounce in the dirt before the pitch reaches home plate is also the coaches responsibility - Practice sessions and a little bench time works wonders for this ( see post re: Rivera -- If she is taught plate discipline, she will be an All-American).

Will be watching with interest how well Dean recruits, and what the off-season brings.

I know that taking the pitch on a 3-0 count is the common practice but I have often wondered about swinging in that situation especially when it is one of your better hitters.  Seems there is at least a 80+% probability it will be a strike pretty much down the middle of the plate (I have no statistics to back that statement; just observation opinion) and probably the best pitch you will see during that at bat. .  Additionally, if you started taking a hack at the pitch in that situation then it would seem to force the pitcher to have to be more careful with the pitch and more likely to throw something well off the plate for ball four.  I think I would be in favor of giving some batters the green light in that situation.  Could be that's why I am not a softball coach?

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Just one other coaching issue....Myers seemed to be a master at using the rules and the roster to substitute players at what he thought were critical times.  And, I notice that with Murphy at bama....and some others in the SEC who have the "large" hitters.....who are routinely "pinch run" for after they get a base hit.    I don't know the rules that well, but softball rules are very helpful to the coaches if they know when and how to use the re-entry rules and some others to their benefit. ....and I'm not sure CMD has worked the rules to his advantage..,.....could be wrong of course but he seems less inclined to use "offensive" and "defensive" players via substitution or work the re-entry process.    

The upside this year has been his willingness to turn Draper loose on the bases where she destroyed most OOC teams.   BUT... SEC defenses pretty much took her slap hits away from her and she and CMD had no plan B.  

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1 hour ago, slot canyon said:
1 hour ago, slot canyon said:

I know that taking the pitch on a 3-0 count is the common practice but I have often wondered about swinging in that situation especially when it is one of your better hitters.

The main strength of Draper was her speed on the bases. If she got a base on balls, odds were highly in favor of her stealing second, resulting in a RISP. With power hitters, sure you give them the green light occasionally with a 3-0 count. Doesn't make much sense to do it with slappers/speed players though. They have one mission -- get on base.

 

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