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tigerbrotha12

NCAA Baseball Tournament Thread

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4 hours ago, AU64 said:

Read the piece in al.com that compared NCSU and AU and no way that the pack should have been seeded higher.....AU stronger in RP I and SOS and better record against top opponents .

Umm yes there is. I like Tom but he only presented part of the statistical story & I called him out on it on twitter. Not only was NC St 9-8 vs. RPI Top 50. They were 9-8 vs RPI top 25. AU was only 4-11 vs. RPI top 25. Also NC St was 13-7 away from home while AU was 10-15. Like it or not every NCAA post season tourney committee takes road & neutral record into account even in sports where there are home team regionals like baseball. AU also had glaring advantages too. Namely 0 losses to RPI 100 teams or worse while NC St. had 4. Overall both resumes are splitting hairs. You really couldn't go wrong with either one.

4 hours ago, AU64 said:

baseball is like basketball and wheeling and dealing determined the seeds and opponents.

Not sure how you mean wheeling & dealing  but there is a bidding process in place. To my knowledge it only happens now in the superregional round if the number one seeds from two regions lost in the regional around. There may have been a bidding process for host sites after the top 8 seeds  but I think that has been done away with for a while  as stadiums have a evolved to meet most NCAA accommodations. I also believe there has never been a bidding process for the top eight national seeds. As for basketball, I have never heard of wheeling and dealing used for teams to get seeds  or opponents. I’d be interested in seeing what you have to back up that wall clean in terms of anything remotely evidential.

Edited by ellitor

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Was just saying that all that worrying and calculating of RPI with each win or lose was a waste of time.

RPI is apparently not even a tie breaker and committee is going to seed teams and select opponents for a variety of reasons, geography for example, and not necessarily best in which are the strongest. JMO

Looks like they might have done an OK job of spreading SEC teams around and yet assuring that too many SEC teams don't get to CWS.  JMO

Edited by AU64

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I believe we're going to throw Burns on Friday and Mize on Saturday. Would be an interesting decision, but it sets up with how we've been working the rotation the last few weeks.

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16 hours ago, ellitor said:

When he has come out of the bullpen. Unfortunately it hasn’t transferred much when he started.

One of the knocks on Davis Daniel as a reliever was that he didn't do well with runners on base. Apparently he's corrected that recently but yours is the first comment I've seen anywhere that brags on Daniel as a reliever.

When pitchers give long, successful outings from the bullpen, that's when they've earned the opportunity to start. Daniel hit some rough spots earlier this season but he's been doing better lately, as opposed to Mize, who has been in a blue funk.

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23 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I believe we're going to throw Burns on Friday and Mize on Saturday. Would be an interesting decision, but it sets up with how we've been working the rotation the last few weeks.

Yep, and Butch is not interested in anybody's Twitter feedback.  I don't tweet so he and I are good.  Regardless of how the rotation goes, it's obvious the bats will need to get back on a roll.  It's been a season of streaks for the offense, hopefully we left all the O-fers in Hoover over those last two games.  The time to rake is now.

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26 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I believe we're going to throw Burns on Friday and Mize on Saturday. Would be an interesting decision, but it sets up with how we've been working the rotation the last few weeks.

I'd use whoever I thought was my #2 guy on Friday and #1 on Saturday. If we can't out-man Northeastern we won't go far anyway. (Says the guy who once saved pitching against a team he badly underestimated, lost and then watched that "weak" team win a State Championship.)  :)

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20 minutes ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Yep, and Butch is not interested in anybody's Twitter feedback.  I don't tweet so he and I are good.  Regardless of how the rotation goes, it's obvious the bats will need to get back on a roll.  It's been a season of streaks for the offense, hopefully we left all the O-fers in Hoover over those last two games.  The time to rake is now.

Agree on the bats. I believe our staff is going to give us enough good pitching that 4-5 runs should be enough to win each of the first two games. But we have to produce those runs.

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16 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I'd use whoever I thought was my #2 guy on Friday and #1 on Saturday. If we can't out-man Northeastern we won't go far anyway. (Says the guy who once saved pitching against a team he badly underestimated, lost and then watched that "weak" team win a State Championship.)  :)

Yep. It's a risk to not throw Mize, but I think it's one we have to take if we want to win this regional. IMO Burns then Mize gives us the best chance to go 2-0 to start the regional. And we're likely set up really well in the bullpen that way too. Greenhill probably follows up Burns. Coker or Daniel follows up Mize. Then all hands on deck Sunday after Mitchell. Jack Owen would get game four if we get there.

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34 minutes ago, boomstick said:

Jack Owen would get game four if we get there.

Win the first three and don't even go there :big:

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1 minute ago, PowerOfDixieland said:

Win the first three and don't even go there :big:

The good thing is if we get to that point we're throwing Owen with probably a pretty fresh bullpen while the other team is throwing their #5 starter and likely a pretty gassed pen. I think Owen has the stuff to get us 4 solid innings if we needed him. Then we can hopefully piece it together from there.

But yes, ideally we win it in three.

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1 hour ago, boomstick said:

The good thing is if we get to that point we're throwing Owen with probably a pretty fresh bullpen while the other team is throwing their #5 starter and likely a pretty gassed pen. I think Owen has the stuff to get us 4 solid innings if we needed him. Then we can hopefully piece it together from there.

But yes, ideally we win it in three.

Unless our hand is forced, I'd hold DD until Monday for the Owen/Daniel 1-2 punch we saw against UK in Hoover.

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5 hours ago, AU64 said:

Was just saying that all that worrying and calculating of RPI with each win or lose was a waste of time.

No it wasn't. If Coastal doesn't beat Troy Sunday then they end up 23 in the RPI & we get the last Host spot. It was damn sure worth following.

5 hours ago, AU64 said:

RPI is apparently not even a tie breaker and committee is going to seed teams and select opponents for a variety of reasons, geography for example, and not necessarily best in which are the strongest. JMO

The committee has proven in recent years that geography is no longer a determining factor. Nobody has said nor implied RPI was a tie breaker. However it's still the baseline point where the committee goes to when starting to evaluate resumes.

Yes the NCAA uses a variety of factors in examining resumes. To think otherwise would be foolish. However the factors are all in an attempt to get the best & strongest to host.

5 hours ago, AU64 said:

Looks like they might have done an OK job of spreading SEC teams around and yet assuring that too many SEC teams don't get to CWS.  JMO

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On 5/28/2018 at 2:06 PM, AuburnTaco said:

Hey Guys, I live in Wake Forest, and am trying to get tickets to the first regional game against Northeastern.  What is the best way to get tickets to regionals?  This is my first time trying to go to a regional.  Anybody have good luck getting single game tickets to an opposing regional site?  Any help you can give would be appreciated. Thanks!

Hi. NC State fan here. I have 2 tickets for your game against Northeastern Friday. 1 adult and 1 youth (under 17). You can have them for face value + $5. (only because I had to pay service fees and tax). Total would be $30. I live in Rolesville so I could meet you somewhere. 

BTW, if any of y'all want to discuss the regional, here is the NC State board. 

https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina-state/Board/PackPride-Sports-103752

 

Always liked Auburn. I work with some Auburn grads. It seems our schools are pretty similar. Pull hard for them every year in the Iron Bowl. Y'all's relationship with Bama is similar to ours with the Tarholes.

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3 hours ago, ellitor said:

 The committee has proven in recent years that geography is no longer a determining factor. Nobody has said nor implied RPI was a tie breaker. However it's still the baseline point where the committee goes to when starting to evaluate resumes.

Yes the NCAA uses a variety of factors in examining resumes. To think otherwise would be foolish. However the factors are all in an attempt to get the best & strongest to host.

You need to break out a map and look at the seeds, hosts and location.  There was no good reason to give NCSU a host slot over AU other than it made a convenient location for a number of eastern teams...though I admit it could have gone either way I guess.  But  AU seems to have better numbers in about every area of performance.   The teams were close I admit, but AU should have gotten the slot though could be that we would still be playing them if at AU..

Throughout the season, AU had the RPI and SOS but never got much in way of ranking whereas NCSU had the poll ranking but RPI and SOS was well below Auburn right up until the end of the season where AU was 14 and NCSU was 19.     Yet, NCSU was constantly ranked in the top 10 of the various polls while AU was usually in the low 20s.   

Despite comments from you and others that the polls did not matter, it appears that the polls in fact mattered a great deal  as did geography if you listen to folks who are involved in the process.  The geography part I can understand and don't object to.   With so many similar teams strength wise, no point in having lower seeded teams traveling all over the county if there are some Host sites close by and the brackets can be made more or less similar. 

But despite not hosting, AU has a good grouping so if the team is able to play up to it's RPI and SOS numbers, it should make it to the next level. 

Edited by AU64

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4 hours ago, JaegerWolf said:

Hi. NC State fan here. I have 2 tickets for your game against Northeastern Friday. 1 adult and 1 youth (under 17). You can have them for face value + $5. (only because I had to pay service fees and tax). Total would be $30. I live in Rolesville so I could meet you somewhere. 

BTW, if any of y'all want to discuss the regional, here is the NC State board. 

https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina-state/Board/PackPride-Sports-103752

 

Always liked Auburn. I work with some Auburn grads. It seems our schools are pretty similar. Pull hard for them every year in the Iron Bowl. Y'all's relationship with Bama is similar to ours with the Tarholes.

Pleased to have you- looking forward to going to Raleigh. Not sure how throughly you follow Auburn Baseball, but we’ve been to our share of regionals down in Tallahassee and are sick of it- glad for some change of scenery. 

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3 hours ago, AU64 said:

You need to break out a map and look at the seeds, hosts and location.  There was no good reason to give NCSU a host slot over AU other than it made a convenient location for a number of eastern teams...though I admit it could have gone either way I guess.  But  AU seems to have better numbers in about every area of performance.   The teams were close I admit, but AU should have gotten the slot though could be that we would still be playing them if at AU..

Throughout the season, AU had the RPI and SOS but never got much in way of ranking whereas NCSU had the poll ranking but RPI and SOS was well below Auburn right up until the end of the season where AU was 14 and NCSU was 19.     Yet, NCSU was constantly ranked in the top 10 of the various polls while AU was usually in the low 20s.   

Despite comments from you and others that the polls did not matter, it appears that the polls in fact mattered a great deal  as did geography if you listen to folks who are involved in the process.  The geography part I can understand and don't object to.   With so many similar teams strength wise, no point in having lower seeded teams traveling all over the county if there are some Host sites close by and the brackets can be made more or less similar. 

But despite not hosting, AU has a good grouping so if the team is able to play up to it's RPI and SOS numbers, it should make it to the next level. 

Tell that to Kentucky who was ranked in most polls to close the season and didn’t even make the tournament. Biggest snub I’ve seen in a while...

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2 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Tell that to Kentucky who was ranked in most polls to close the season and didn’t even make the tournament. Biggest snub I’ve seen in a while...

This is true imo

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5 hours ago, JaegerWolf said:

Hi. NC State fan here. I have 2 tickets for your game against Northeastern Friday. 1 adult and 1 youth (under 17). You can have them for face value + $5. (only because I had to pay service fees and tax). Total would be $30. I live in Rolesville so I could meet you somewhere. 

BTW, if any of y'all want to discuss the regional, here is the NC State board. 

https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina-state/Board/PackPride-Sports-103752

 

Always liked Auburn. I work with some Auburn grads. It seems our schools are pretty similar. Pull hard for them every year in the Iron Bowl. Y'all's relationship with Bama is similar to ours with the Tarholes.

Love NC State! Welcome to the board!

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1 hour ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Tell that to Kentucky who was ranked in most polls to close the season and didn’t even make the tournament. Biggest snub I’ve seen in a while...

Yep.....agree....just saying that the process of seeding the baseball tournament is no more objective than when the basket tournament is set up.  Where there is a committee, there are opinions and all have to be listened to and by and large, everyone gets his way on something.  We can play with RPI and re-calculate it after each game, but when the time comes, the committee is gonna do what it wants to do and find a way to justify the outcome.

As I noted several posts ago....Butch said he would trust the committee to do the right thing.....and I'm guessing he might re-think that now.  But we are in a pretty good region at the moment.... except for where it leads next if we carry the day over in Raleigh....but that is a worry for another day....I hope. 

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6 minutes ago, Tigerbelle said:

Love NC State! Welcome to the board!

agree...one grand daughter over there and probably another on the way next year....couldn't get them to consider AU because of the distance.....hope NCSU does well except when they play us...:)

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4 hours ago, AU64 said:

But  AU seems to have better numbers in about every area of performance.

Except record versus RPI Top 25 & record away from home which I have already said are 2 things the committee usually weighs very heavily, often times more than most other things.

4 hours ago, AU64 said:

AU should have gotten the slot though

I personally see it that way too but just by a wisker. The NCAA has been consistent on some things most of the time. Your record against the best weighs more as does performance away from home.

4 hours ago, AU64 said:

Throughout the season, AU had the RPI and SOS but never got much in way of ranking whereas NCSU had the poll ranking but RPI and SOS was well below Auburn right up until the end of the season where AU was 14 and NCSU was 19.     Yet, NCSU was constantly ranked in the top 10 of the various polls while AU was usually in the low 20s.   

Not that polls matter at all but again, NC St was winning games versus the best teams. AU wasn't. Of course they were going to be ranked higher in human polls.

4 hours ago, AU64 said:

Despite comments from you and others that the polls did not matter, it appears that the polls in fact mattered a great deal

Again nope & nope. In fact I have heard the analysts say the exact opposite on Geography. In fact I got grilled by one on twitter just asking about Geography.

1 hour ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Tell that to Kentucky who was ranked in most polls to close the season and didn’t even make the tournament. Biggest snub I’ve seen in a while...

This I agree with. That was pure the committee not wanting to put in a record 11 teams in from 1 conference.

However, historically speaking, if you only win 13 games in the SEC as UK did then most of the time you don't get in.

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Maybe this has already been mentioned and maybe I’m completely off base but I find it ridiculous that 1. Kentucky gets left out. 2. LSU gets sent all the way to Oregon state. 3. AU doesn’t host but South Carolina gets sent to ECU? 

Now im not saying that we should’ve definitely hosted and Kentucky should’ve gotten in but I believe Ray Tanner acted with tremendous bias. I may be wrong and if Ray in fact acted appropriately then I apologize but something isn’t right. JMO

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7 hours ago, JaegerWolf said:

Hi. NC State fan here. I have 2 tickets for your game against Northeastern Friday. 1 adult and 1 youth (under 17). You can have them for face value + $5. (only because I had to pay service fees and tax). Total would be $30. I live in Rolesville so I could meet you somewhere. 

BTW, if any of y'all want to discuss the regional, here is the NC State board. 

https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina-state/Board/PackPride-Sports-103752

 

Always liked Auburn. I work with some Auburn grads. It seems our schools are pretty similar. Pull hard for them every year in the Iron Bowl. Y'all's relationship with Bama is similar to ours with the Tarholes.

Welcome to the board. Many years ago I enjoyed the company of a very fine young lady who was an NC state grad. Though our time together was brief, I've thought of both she and NC State with fondness ever since. Best of luck when you're not playing Auburn!

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25 minutes ago, au302 said:

Maybe this has already been mentioned and maybe I’m completely off base but I find it ridiculous that 1. Kentucky gets left out. 2. LSU gets sent all the way to Oregon state. 3. AU doesn’t host but South Carolina gets sent to ECU? 

Now im not saying that we should’ve definitely hosted and Kentucky should’ve gotten in but I believe Ray Tanner acted with tremendous bias. I may be wrong and if Ray in fact acted appropriately then I apologize but something isn’t right. JMO

Well NC State is the 16 seed, meaning the lowest ranked regional host.  We actually got a better draw than South Carolina in that regard.

As for LSU, by rule you can't put multiple SEC teams in the same regional.  When you have as many teams as we did make the tourney, somebody's gonna have to travel.

Kentucky is debatable.  Good series wins this year, but they also went 13-17 while playing in the weaker division of the SEC (still tough though).  Committee values conference record.

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23 hours ago, Mikey said:

One of the knocks on Davis Daniel as a reliever was that he didn't do well with runners on base. Apparently he's corrected that recently but yours is the first comment I've seen anywhere that brags on Daniel as a reliever.

When pitchers give long, successful outings from the bullpen, that's when they've earned the opportunity to start. Daniel hit some rough spots earlier this season but he's been doing better lately, as opposed to Mize, who has been in a blue funk.

JMO...but since Daniel has mostly relied on his fast ball and kept breaking pitches away from the plate ....out of reach of hitters .....he has looked good.  His fastball is special when he has his control.

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