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Why American Spies Worry When Trump Meets Putin


homersapien

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https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/trump-putin-summit-mueller/565214/

Just as the Russian leader has unleashed his intelligence and security services, the American president has kneecapped and undermined his own.

It was going to be Donald Trump’s “easiest” meeting, at least according to Trump himself. After a week of tense exchanges with allies in Brussels and then the U.K., the U.S president would head to Helsinki for his first formal summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Then on Friday, right as the president was settling down to tea with the Queen, the indictments came; the Justice Department accused 12 officers of Russian intelligence with specific crimes related to meddling in the 2016 election—the one U.S. intelligence says the Russians wanted to throw to Trump.

If Trump is worried this will cast a pall over the summit, American intelligence officials have plenty of other reasons to worry about the meeting. Notwithstanding any indictment-related awkwardness, the summit will still be a gift to Putin—an unearned opportunity for him to break out of his immediate struggles and achieve a variety of otherwise impossible goals. Indeed, through a number of aggressive and provocative actions that appeared to provide short-term wins, Putin has nonetheless gotten himself trapped. His country is heavily sanctioned, economically weak, overextended, and lacking in allies. His unprovoked land grab in Crimea, attack on neighboring Ukraine, electoral interference in the U.S. and Europe, assassination of opponents, support to Syria’s bloody dictator Bashar al-Assad and constant lies have left him ostracized in much of the developed world. He can no longer offer his people wealth or the vision of a better future. He instead relies on the tools of oppression and scapegoats to blame for his failures. The dynamic is unlikely to change anytime soon.

And yet despite all this, and even with the indictments, Putin walks into the summit with a distinct advantage. Just as Putin has unleashed his intelligence and security services, Trump has kneecapped and undermined his own.

Trump launched his presidency with an attack on the CIA, accusing CIA officers of leaking and behaving like Nazis. He ridiculed the unanimous conclusions of intelligence community related to Russian attacks on the 2016 election and began a long-running verbal assault on the FBI.  Immediately prior to his trip, Trump again questioned the overwhelming judgment of his intelligence professionals, countering that Putin himself denied the charges. Trump added that Putin’s KGB background was “fine.”

For his part, though, during the summit Putin will certainly lean on the knowledge built up in his own intelligence services from years of studying Trump and the U.S. political landscape. He will fawn on Trump and play to his ignorance. He can easily appeal to Trump’s predilection to save money, antagonize allies, and disconnect from NATO obligations. Along with Putin’s tiresome history lessons on Russian victimhood and recitation of grievances against the West, we can expect commentary such as: “NATO has nothing to fear from Russia, so why are you wasting money on that Cold War relic?” “Just like in Korea, your constant war games are a useless and expensive provocation.” “Let us handle Syria. It's just a waste of U.S. money to support people who are terrorists.” “As a savvy businessman, you know that sanctions are hurting the West more than they hurt us. Think how many jobs we could create if only we could reinvigorate our commercial ties.” He will probably blame poor relations on Barack Obama.

It’s almost too easy for Putin. It does not take a trained intelligence officer to exploit Trump’s ego and ignorance. Trump’s vulnerabilities are on frequent public display. He is quick to anger, unable to control his impulses, loyal to no one, easy to flatter, easily influenced but loath to accept advice, a serial bluffer, and fully transparent about his vanity and congenital need for approbation.

This is not a meeting of equals but a summit between a con-man and a man who is easily conned. One orders his opponents killed; the other tweets at his.

Indeed, Putin has the survival instincts of a mobster, and the subversive skills built up from a career in the KGB. He knows how to play a weaker hand to his best advantage. Domestically, he has destroyed Russian independent media, as well as judicial and economic institutions that might have constituted a threat to his personal power. In the process he has made himself one of the richest men in the world and coopted his country’s elite by including them in the spoils. Those who have threatened this arrangement can find themselves dead. On the international stage, Russia does little to facilitate the smooth diplomatic and commercial interaction between states and is instead satisfied to seek attention through subversion and bullying. For Putin, “win-win” means “I beat you twice.”

And there’s another reason for America’s spies to worry about Trump. The most effective weapon available to America’s intelligence officers overseas is that they visibly represent the United States of America. Many a spy disgusted by the corruption in their own countries knows that America, built on the rule of law and respect for individual rights, is a powerful and glaring alternative. American and Western intelligence professionals know that many Russians are seeking an alternative future for Russia and are exhausted by the constant thievery, corruption, and lies of their leadership in the Kremlin. If your own president is a gangster and is hurting your country to satisfy his personal needs, the U.S. is the place to go.

At least it was.

For the intelligence collector, the worry is that the more Trump denigrates Western values and displays a sense of personal dishonesty, the less the U.S. looks like the better option. Why risk your life to provide information to a U.S. president who doesn’t understand the stakes and doesn’t respect the work of his security professionals?

In this case, the goals of the summit are not clear. What does America want from Russia? Why? What is Trump willing to concede? What role are allies expected to take? If the Putin summit follows the pattern he set in Singapore, it’s more likely to be a pageant than a means to solve real problems.

But for an unclear combination of reasons, the U.S. president appears willing to forgive Putin and welcome him to the big-boy table. Even the “summit” terminology gives the impression of a Cold War meeting of two equal and powerful nations, the outcome of which will require others to accommodate themselves. Putin hasn’t earned it, and there is little that he can provide the U.S. in any “deal” short of a complete change of behavior on the international stage. Not only is the administration offering Putin a way out of his self-inflicted international isolation, it’s also providing him a red carpet on which to walk toward the exit.

There is a long-running debate among those scholars and practitioners who follow Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin. Is he a master strategist, or is he merely a tactician, instinctually trying to stay one step ahead in a never-ending effort to remain in power? Trump’s gift to Putin is providing him a helping hand to pull him back from the brink and allowing him to appear an equal on the world stage with the president of the United States. Rather than being labeled as an outcast and thug, he can present himself as a modern-day tsar.

Apparently, crime does pay.

 

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In the interest of clarity; the title to thread should really be "Why Homey believes that American Spies Worry When Trump Meets Putin based on mindlessly regurgitating an Atlantic Article".

For an article that purports to know so much about the topic, it fails to site a single source related to the intelligence community...they didn't even use the usual fake "unnamed sources" moniker...I guess at least that's a step up in terms of truth in journalism...

I wonder if Trump will ask Putin if he's replaced the 300 Russians soldiers he killed in Syria a few months back when they approached our forces and the Syrian forces we were supporting.  Or maybe, Trump will ask him if he's having trouble getting good intel with 65 less spies in the US since he expelled them after he poisoned the 2 folks in England?  Or maybe, Trump will ask him how he's doing since the March 15 sanctions were imposed?  Surely Trump will ask him how he's doing in the Ukraine since we gave them $47m in munitions back in March that included Javeline anti-tank missiles ... you know, those things that Crimea asked for and never got when Russia waltzed in.  Nah....I'm sure the Atlantic and Homey are right...I mean Trump's pattern is to just set on around and do nothing....

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9 minutes ago, GiveEmElle said:

Ah yes, at least the subtitle of the article is half right....the "mind boggling conclusion" part is pretty accurate.  As far as "plausible", not so much.   I guess if your write an article that takes the 1st 2 pages and says "suspend your disbelief"; then anything is plausible after that.  

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8 minutes ago, japantiger said:

Ah yes, at least the subtitle of the article is half right....the "mind boggling conclusion" part is pretty accurate.  As far as "plausible", not so much.   I guess if your write an article that takes the 1st 2 pages and says "suspend your disbelief"; then anything is plausible after that.  

A man who says repeatedly that there is no collusion with Russia is meeting with the leader of Russia without any other Americans present. Of course, there is nothing to see here. Move along.

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According to the New York Time archives from Nov 21, 1985; Reagan and Gorbachev met privately 3 times during the Geneva Summit...just them .... sort of seams like how world leaders actually get major agreements done....just like Carter, Began and Sadat...long hours of personal meetings.  I can't think of  substantive agreement negotiated between nations or businesses, that was ever done with a gaggle of onlookers....I know this will come as a shock to most of you...but nations and organizations don't do agreements or make progress....people do....you do business with people.  But hey, you guys do you...I guess that's how we got to the place where Putin didn't care what our previous fearless leader did and brazenly attacked our institutions while he sat idly by doing political calculations.  

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25 minutes ago, japantiger said:

According to the New York Time archives from Nov 21, 1985; Reagan and Gorbachev met privately 3 times during the Geneva Summit...just them .... sort of seams like how world leaders actually get major agreements done....just like Carter, Began and Sadat...long hours of personal meetings.  I can't think of  substantive agreement negotiated between nations or businesses, that was ever done with a gaggle of onlookers....I know this will come as a shock to most of you...but nations and organizations don't do agreements or make progress....people do....you do business with people.  But hey, you guys do you...I guess that's how we got to the place where Putin didn't care what our previous fearless leader did and brazenly attacked our institutions while he sat idly by doing political calculations.  

That's exactly the basis for the fear by professionals in the foreign policy arena - including many of those in Trump's administration - Trump and Putin alone, doing a "big deal".

Trump is singularly unqualified to negotiated any sort of deal with Russia as  should be apparent by now.  He's clueless.  Putin on the other hand, most certainly isn't.

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14 hours ago, japantiger said:

In the interest of clarity; the title to thread should really be "Why Homey believes that American Spies Worry When Trump Meets Putin based on mindlessly regurgitating an Atlantic Article".

For an article that purports to know so much about the topic, it fails to site a single source related to the intelligence community...they didn't even use the usual fake "unnamed sources" moniker...I guess at least that's a step up in terms of truth in journalism...

I wonder if Trump will ask Putin if he's replaced the 300 Russians soldiers he killed in Syria a few months back when they approached our forces and the Syrian forces we were supporting.  Or maybe, Trump will ask him if he's having trouble getting good intel with 65 less spies in the US since he expelled them after he poisoned the 2 folks in England?  Or maybe, Trump will ask him how he's doing since the March 15 sanctions were imposed?  Surely Trump will ask him how he's doing in the Ukraine since we gave them $47m in munitions back in March that included Javeline anti-tank missiles ... you know, those things that Crimea asked for and never got when Russia waltzed in.  Nah....I'm sure the Atlantic and Homey are right...I mean Trump's pattern is to just set on around and do nothing....

Hell, I'd settle for Trump demanding the extradition of the Russians the United States government just indicted for interfering in our election. 

How does it make us look to the rest of the world if he doesn't do that?  We have a president who defers to Putin instead of representing his own Justice Department in the defense of our country.

‘I hadn’t thought’ of asking Putin to extradite indicted Russian agents, Trump says

 

 

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It's not like we didn't see this coming:

 

 

“Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” Mr. Trump said, referring to emails Mrs. Clinton had deleted from the private account she had used when she was secretary of state. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.”

As it turns out, that same day, the Russians — whether they had tuned in or not — made their first effort to break into the servers used by Mrs. Clinton’s personal office, according to a sweeping 29-page indictment unsealed Friday by the special counsel’s office that charged 12 Russians with election hacking.

 

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Trump is asked who are our biggest foes.  First response - The European Union   WTF!!!??

Putin could have written this script.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-interview-cbs-news-european-union-is-a-foe-ahead-of-putin-meeting-in-helsinki-jeff-glor/

 

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20 hours ago, homersapien said:

Trump is asked who are our biggest foes.  First response - The European Union   WTF!!!??

Putin could have written this script.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-interview-cbs-news-european-union-is-a-foe-ahead-of-putin-meeting-in-helsinki-jeff-glor/

 

There's a reason people call him Dolt 45.

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On 7/15/2018 at 12:33 PM, japantiger said:

According to the New York Time archives from Nov 21, 1985; Reagan and Gorbachev met privately 3 times during the Geneva Summit...just them .... sort of seams like how world leaders actually get major agreements done....just like Carter, Began and Sadat...long hours of personal meetings.  I can't think of  substantive agreement negotiated between nations or businesses, that was ever done with a gaggle of onlookers....I know this will come as a shock to most of you...but nations and organizations don't do agreements or make progress....people do....you do business with people.  But hey, you guys do you...I guess that's how we got to the place where Putin didn't care what our previous fearless leader did and brazenly attacked our institutions while he sat idly by doing political calculations.  

sorry but a very different time. gorby was scared sh*tless of ronnie. as far as i cam concerned some of you are traitors to your country over partisan politics. the russians helped trump because  they feel they can further their agenda with him as pres . and trump is way over his head in regards to putin and you guys know it. what is worse is he is instructed by his staff on what to do and then wings it. thus the ol i believe putin over our intelligenc agencies. and all you guys got is ALL the intelligence agencies people are liars and not to be trusted. give me a break.

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20 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

sorry but a very different time. gorby was scared sh*tless of ronnie. as far as i cam concerned some of you are traitors to your country over partisan politics. the russians helped trump because  they feel they can further their agenda with him as pres . and trump is way over his head in regards to putin and you guys know it. what is worse is he is instructed by his staff on what to do and then wings it. thus the ol i believe putin over our intelligenc agencies. and all you guys got is ALL the intelligence agencies people are liars and not to be trusted. give me a break.

Well actually, I don't think Trump is in over his head on this or anything he's faced thus far into his Presidency.   The economy is humming, every employment statistic is at a multi decade best; we've de-escalated NK provocations; great Supreme Court picks, regulations cut; taking back control of our trade policy and in spite of the Russia hysteria ass clownism so rampant on the left,  he's made it clear that the provocations of the prior decade won't be allowed (last time I checked, he's killed more Russians than any president of the last 40 years).  As to being a traitor for backing this president; I've also been called deplorable, Hitler, blah blah blah...you guys keep looking for a cartoon villian to explain how you lost the un-loseble election.  Get a grip.  

As for Trump's making the final decision on how to proceed in meetings....he is the guy that is accountable...that's sort of the job of the President.  He gets to listen to his staff and decide whether to follow their recommendations or follow his own instincts.  That is what leadership is.  Hhmm, let's see, what other president ignored his staff and went his own direction with the Soviets....that would be Reagan....in his rhetoric and stubborn insistence to call out the Soviets every chance he got ("tear down this wall"..."evil empire") and to not settle for less than; well everything; when it came to dealing with Gorbachav, SDI, nuke limits, etc...believing in engagement with the Russian's is what our foreign policy has been based on since 1969...remember detente'?   I guess not...I guess you guys also don't remember when the last president andhis  sec state misspelled "reset" and promised the Russians "more flexibility" after the election.  

As for our intelligence agencies, they have been wrong on most every major intel call of the last 40 years.  Iranian revolution, Intel failure; Soviets invading Afghanistan, intel failure; collapse of the Soviet Union;  intel failure; India obtaining nukes, intel failure; 9-11, Intel failure; Iraq WMD, Intel failure; ISiS, intel failure;  Lybia trainwreck, intel failure; Arab spring, intel failure; Russia invasion of Crimea, intel failure; Assads comeback in Syria, intel failure; Kim Jong-Uns rise and consolidation of power, nukes and missile tech, intel failure;  the sad part is there are more.  Blindly believing our intel agencies in the face of repeated major mistakes is childish. Our intel agencies are massive bureaucracies that rely too much on signal intel and not enough on people and are just too damn slow.  As to them being liars; well, of late; they have had a pretty bad track record.  They do seem to be overly politicized; which "not"-surprisingly is what the left said during the whole WMD fallout.  Hhmm, maybe there is a pattern here....

 

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