Obama Touts Universal Income

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Obama touts universal (guaranteed) income while in Africa. this isn't going anywhere until far left social justice types get control. What are your thoughts on the idea?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/17/obama-slams-populist-right-wing-billionaires-touts-liberal-push-for-universal-income.html

 

[HVAU 673]

1 minute ago, Proud Tiger said:

Obama touts universal (guaranteed) income while in Africa. this isn't going anywhere until far left social justice types get control. What are your thoughts on the idea?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/17/obama-slams-populist-right-wing-billionaires-touts-liberal-push-for-universal-income.html

 

It will eventually be necessary as labor becomes more broadly automated.  It's either that, artificialprop up less efficient, traditional means of labor, or face equality gaps that eventually lead to massive social upheaval.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

16 minutes ago, HVAU said:

It will eventually be necessary as labor becomes more broadly automated.  It's either that, artificialprop up less efficient, traditional means of labor, or face equality gaps that eventually lead to massive social upheaval.

I was just about to come say something like this.  It's something that has to be at least talked about because there's a future that's not too far off where so many jobs will be eliminated through robotics, machine learning and AI, there simply won't be nearly enough job openings to go around.   And it won't just affect burger flippers and various manufacturing plants.  It's going to reach into the IT world, the legal profession, health care providers, retail - just about any field you can think of right now that employs human beings. 

So that said, what do you do when you have all these goods and services being produced and needed, but 30, 40, 60% or more of the population no longer has jobs and no real prospects for them going forward?  Yes, there will be some jobs for the people that maintain and program the automated systems, but it won't come anywhere near replacing the jobs that are lost.  How do people pay for these things?  Do we enact laws limiting the use of automation and AI so that there will be jobs available for people?  It's not a far-fetched question and it's really not just some nefarious plot by socialists.

[HVAU 673]

24 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

So that said, what do you do when you have all these goods and services being produced and needed, but 30, 40, 60% or more of the population no longer has jobs and no real prospects for them going forward?  How do people pay for these things?  Do we enact laws limiting the use of automation and AI so that there will be jobs available for people?  It's not a far-fetched question and it's really not just some nefarious plot by socialists.

I was recently in Europe and was very surprised at the quality of living in a country that has over 20% unemployment.  The sense of community was higher, and citizens seemed to be able to rely on strong family structures without the stigma frequently placed on Americans for doing the same.  This is really difficult in a society that is based on economic Darwinism with a quasi-omnipotent corporate oligarchy, a minimalistic view of social safety nets and negative views about multigenerational living scenarios.  Those descriptors are a touch bleak to apply to the US presently, however, I think the bulk of them fit the current GOP agenda.

[80Tiger 899]

44 minutes ago, HVAU said:

I was recently in Europe and was very surprised at the quality of living in a country that has over 20% unemployment.  The sense of community was higher, and citizens seemed to be able to rely on strong family structures without the stigma frequently placed on Americans for doing the same.  This is really difficult in a society that is based on economic Darwinism with a quasi-omnipotent corporate oligarchy, a minimalistic view of social safety nets and negative views about multigenerational living scenarios.  Those descriptors are a touch bleak to apply to the US presently, however, I think the bulk of them fit the current GOP agenda.

If you don't mind can you expand on this? You said that in this country with" 20% unemployment that they relied on strong family structure without the stigma placed on Americans for doing the same". I am not aware that there was a stigma associated with family structures here in the US. In fact it seems to me that many of our issues in society can be traced to the decline of the family.

[HVAU 673]

1 hour ago, 80Tiger said:

If you don't mind can you expand on this? You said that in this country with" 20% unemployment that they relied on strong family structure without the stigma placed on Americans for doing the same". I am not aware that there was a stigma associated with family structures here in the US. In fact it seems to me that many of our issues in society can be traced to the decline of the family.

Further in my statement I referred to multigenerational living scenarios.  I'm sure you've heard the popular culture criticisms of a young generation living in their parents' basement.  Frequently that may be an allusion to a slacker benefiting off of the family while refusing to contribute to the well-being of the family.  I actually know people like this and they piss me off.  I know others, however, that live with and contribute to their family due to economic hardships.  The latter still carry the "mother's basement" shame despite their contributions.  An argument could be made that they actually reflect true traditional family values as opposed to the current nuclear family prosperity values.

[kevon67 2,368]

13 minutes ago, HVAU said:

Further in my statement I referred to multigenerational living scenarios.  I'm sure you've heard the popular culture criticisms of a young generation living in their parents' basement.  Frequently that may be an allusion to a slacker benefiting off of the family while refusing to contribute to the well-being of the family.  I actually know people like this and they piss me off.  I know others, however, that live with and contribute to their family due to economic hardships.  The latter still carry the "mother's basement" shame despite their contributions.  An argument could be made that they actually reflect true traditional family values as opposed to the current nuclear family prosperity values.

I can agree with most of that..........though some financial hardships are due to inability to manage money..........some but not all.

[SaltyTiger 7,790]

6 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

So that said, what do you do when you have all these goods and services being produced and needed, but 30, 40, 60% or more of the population no longer has jobs and no real prospects for them going forward?  Yes, there will be some jobs for the people that maintain and program the automated systems, but it won't come anywhere near replacing the jobs that are lost.  How do people pay for these things?

Then we have 70, 60, 40% trapped. We have an elite class programming and maintaining that could easily program anything to do damage as well as good. 

I see the scenario as sad. JMO but I have feel that God intended for man to work and do so with purpose.  

[TitanTiger 20,472]

11 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Then we have 70, 60, 40% trapped. We have an elite class programming and maintaining that could easily program anything to do damage as well as good. 

I see the scenario as sad. JMO but I have feel that God intended for man to work and do so with purpose.  

I don't disagree, but how do you stop it?  Put restrictions on AI and automation and legally set aside a certain percentage of jobs in every industry that must employ humans rather than automate?

[SaltyTiger 7,790]

9 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I don't disagree, but how do you stop it?  Put restrictions on AI and automation and legally set aside a certain percentage of jobs in every industry that must employ humans rather than automate?

Good question. My first response is a big no to restrictions. I am not convinced that automation will work well in most things. Not from the production aspect as much the human aspect.  

[AU64 10,122]

9 hours ago, SaltyTiger said:

Good question. My first response is a big no to restrictions. I am not convinced that automation will work well in most things. Not from the production aspect as much the human aspect.  

Agree....JMO and time will tell but I think the "threat" from automation is way over stated and even there, mostly limited to more advanced countries.  ..and even there, we see a transfer of jobs from manual to support or service.  

And just wondering how far this "universal" income is supposed to stretch.  Are US citizens supposed to contribute toward a world wide universal minimum wage? ….considering that likely more than half the world population is living on a subsistence level and if you see some of those places, you get the impression that many are not that excited about actually working much ...though probably much of that attitude has come about because of a couple generations of bad government and little opportunity for economic advancement.   Most of the world's economies could be improved by better governance 

[TitanTiger 20,472]

This is an interesting article (and accompanying video) on the subject.  And it makes an interesting point....you don't have to see unemployment numbers as high as 50% or more for the tipping point to occur.  It could be as low as 30% before it creates a cascade of economic trouble leading to collapse.

 

Quote

 

Elon Musk: Automation Will Force Universal Basic Income

Daniel Starkey

At the World Government Summit in Dubai, our real-world Tony Stark, Elon Musk, was throwing around some big and important ideas about the future of humanity. Musk says that Universal Basic Income — or an economic idea where everyone gets a paycheck from the government to spend how they wish — is one of the only solutions to the rise of robotic automation.

Automation on large scales will absolutely change everything. The going term right now is the rise of the “post-scarcity economy.” And, while I know that sounds boring as hell, for you it means that in the not-too-distant future, money won’t matter and all of our economies will totally collapse. And yeah, I’m serious.

Post-scarcity is something that we should all be able to at least kind of understand. Traditional economies work because things are rare. Food, for example, isn’t infinite. If it was, it’d be free. After all, how could you charge for something that is unlimited? Like air? Or the sun? There’s no practical way to do that.

That’s essentially why the Star Trek universe abandoned money. After you have replicators, which are basically magical boxes that make anything from anything in seconds, stuff doesn’t have intrinsic value. You can’t control the supply or demand of anything because the demand is whatever and the supply is unlimited. In that system, as you can already tell, nothing about traditional economics works. What’s a supply and demand curve even mean under those circumstances?

Obviously, humanity is a long way from replicators. And, as a result, we won’t have true post-scarcity systems for a long time yet. But, we are about to take a couple of major leaps forward. Here is a list of all the places robots are likely to steal jobs in the future. If you just account for self-driving cars, though, you can take as many as 20% of all jobs away in one swoop. The transportation sector employs that many people.

But that’s not the only industry that will get a jolt. Many service industry jobs are easy to automate. That could wipe out tens of millions more job. Even if it takes twenty or thirty years, Musk rightly notes that no economy can sustain that.

 

 

And while many of you might think that sounds like a bunch of leftist hippie bull****, this is actually about as politically neutral as it gets. Again, think about it — if you have 30 or even 40% unemployment, then the economy, as we’ve traditionally structured it has nothing to do but collapse. If that many people are unemployed, they won’t have enough money to buy… anything, really. That, in turn, shatters demand for goods and then everyone else suddenly becomes unemployed. If this happens, inflation is screwed, money has no meaning and the entire system we’ve created would utterly cease to function.

Most plans for universal basic income start by suggesting a tax on robots. The goal here is to replace revenue lost from the mass numbers of unemployed and keep it coming in from the bots. Plus, this is still a net gain for businesses — they get money flowing into pockets so people can keep spending, and even conservative estimates suggest that robots will be able to pay for themselves dozens of times over. So companies won’t really be losing any money there, either.

This is a set of ideas that I’ve tossed around with friends for a while. Unless something huge changes, this is probably the only viable solution. It keeps most markets and corporations intact, while still working with the complex reality posed by infinite labor from bots. It’s weird to think, but, honestly, Musk is almost certainly spot on here.

We will, of course, have some time to adapt to this. But it’s something we should all start familiarizing ourselves with now. Robots can replace you. No, your job is not safe. Not even if you’re a doctor or a lawyer. There’s a great video from YouTuber CGPGrey above that runs through the best case scenarios here, and, honestly, it’s not good.

 

 

 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

If the law gig doesn’t work out, I might have to consider the toilet paper business. Figured it’ll always be around....hopefully.

[Mikey 16,577]

The IBM BS that came with my office's first computer back in the 80's contained a lot of statistics about how automation/computers didn't cut jobs, they increased employment opportunities. Automation certainly didn't cut jobs where I was.

Currently, the job market is insane. There are Help Wanted signs in many store windows and many skill positions are being offered with significant signing bonuses. I don't see that we are anywhere near needing a guaranteed income. As to Obama's support of this idea, that's not a surprise. I saw him mention this in a speech many years ago. "Think about how great it would be if an artist or writer didn't have to worry about income or a job but could just use their artistic talents full time."

[TitanTiger 20,472]

35 minutes ago, Mikey said:

The IBM BS that came with my office's first computer back in the 80's contained a lot of statistics about how automation/computers didn't cut jobs, they increased employment opportunities. Automation certainly didn't cut jobs where I was.

Currently, the job market is insane. There are Help Wanted signs in many store windows and many skill positions are being offered with significant signing bonuses. I don't see that we are anywhere near needing a guaranteed income. As to Obama's support of this idea, that's not a surprise. I saw him mention this in a speech many years ago. "Think about how great it would be if an artist or writer didn't have to worry about income or a job but could just use their artistic talents full time."

I think the issue is that automation in the 80s is a horse and plow compared to where AI, machine learning and robotics will soon be.  I just don't think you and my experience in the 80s and 90s really translates this time.

[SaltyTiger 7,790]

The mason will continue to own the site setup and final wall quality, but will become more efficient with the help of SAM.

http://www.masonryconstruction.com/business/technology/will-sam-the-robot-bricklayer-send-masons-to-the-unemployment-line_o 

[kevon67 2,368]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

The IBM BS that came with my office's first computer back in the 80's contained a lot of statistics about how automation/computers didn't cut jobs, they increased employment opportunities. Automation certainly didn't cut jobs where I was.

Currently, the job market is insane. There are Help Wanted signs in many store windows and many skill positions are being offered with significant signing bonuses. I don't see that we are anywhere near needing a guaranteed income. As to Obama's support of this idea, that's not a surprise. I saw him mention this in a speech many years ago. "Think about how great it would be if an artist or writer didn't have to worry about income or a job but could just use their artistic talents full time."

? That last sentence sounds more like a dope smokers dream.

[SaltyTiger 7,790]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

11 hours ago, SaltyTiger said:

 

Agree....JMO and time will tell but I think the "threat" from automation is way over stated and even

Wouldn't you love to see a little less automation , ie  calling the utility  company or insurance company and being able to talk to a real person.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

Old men, did y’all even fathom the potential threat of automation when y’all were growing up?

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

2 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

I think the issue is that automation in the 80s is a horse and plow compared to where AI, machine learning and robotics will soon be.  I just don't think you and my experience in the 80s and 90s really translates this time.

I like that you bring up regulation. Prepare for a battle on federalism. Think about that....

I suppose the Commerce Clause is one avenue. We will need to stringently protect against and control unreasonable monopolization that is sure to arise (and already is arising) in the world of tech/automation.

Which political party will favor industry regulation? Do you think partisan lines will be blurred?

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, NolaAuTiger said:

Old men, did y’all even fathom the potential threat of automation when y’all were growing up?

Sure ...it was going on all around me in the textile industry......automatic spinning frames eliminated tens of thousands of labor jobs across the south, modern looms were two and three and five times faster with better quality......and much more.  So what was the effect? ......true, jobs were lost but otherwise it kept textile companies and textile jobs in the United States, kept the US companies competitive in the world market rather than see all of them go over seas to low wage countries.   Eventually that occurred however, when even automation in the US did not allow US companies to compete against India, Pakistan and elsewhere.    Or take a look at farming and all that has changed in agriculture.   One of the biggest advantages and benefits of automation in manufacturing is to improve quality and product uniformity, and not necessarily throughput. 

So ….wonders never cease but under the current administration and economic policies we all of a sudden have labor shortages,...mostly in technology areas.  Trying to protect or maintain manual labor jobs is no way to grow an economy.   But giving people money not to work is no way to grow an economy either. 

As for Elon Musk.....no doubt he is a brilliant guy but all the ideas spouted by brilliant people aren't necessarily brilliant.   He needs to figure out how to get production up for his S-3 cars. 

[HVAU 673]

5 minutes ago, AU64 said:

So ….wonders never cease but under the current administration and economic policies we all of a sudden have labor shortages,...mostly in technology areas.  Trying to protect or maintain manual labor jobs is no way to grow an economy.   But giving people money not to work is no way to grow an economy either. 

I've made this argument over and over, but it still seems nobody gets it.  These labor shortages aren't an all of the sudden phenomenon.  The job market, and economy as a whole, increased remarkably well under Obama.  Any 10 year economic chart will reveal that most gains occurred under Obama and a small percentage under Trump.  

[homersapien 11,366]

4 hours ago, NolaAuTiger said:

If the law gig doesn’t work out, I might have to consider the toilet paper business. Figured it’ll always be around....hopefully.

Good idea.  Follow your muse. 

[homersapien 11,366]

1 hour ago, NolaAuTiger said:

Old men, did y’all even fathom the potential threat of automation when y’all were growing up?

No.  In fact, I didn't even recognize the 'Green Revolution', already in progress.

 

[SaltyTiger 7,790]

1 hour ago, NolaAuTiger said:

Old men, did y’all even fathom the potential threat of automation when y’all were growing up?

   Hey @augolf1716 @homersapien   Nola has a question for you guys.