Washington: biggest game opening weekend

[AUsince72 11,084]

6 minutes ago, kevon67 said:

Roseanne and Danny Devito visual was not what I expected after taking the first bite of my sandwich?

Nor was it called for...

 

[AUsince72 11,084]

8 minutes ago, johnnyAU said:

We always come out of the gate slowly...offensively anyway. Our D was primed and ready the last 2 years though. Thank you Kevin Steele! I'm afraid we'll have to lean on them early again this year. 

I agree.

But thank you for recognizing the D's efforts.  With a great defense you always have a chance!

I second this: Thank you Coach Steele!

War Eagle.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

7 minutes ago, DAG said:

So teams with actual talent levels comparable to ours? A lot of the early teams we play our not all that great besides Kansas State in 2014 and the year we blew out LSU. I don’t have a dog in this fight but all I know is we can’t be trying to feel out in the opener against a top ten opponent . We need to have a sound game plan and the boys need to be firing on all cylinders. 

So if we only want to look at Power 5 opponents, here's how it stacks up by month under Gus.

Sept: 8-6 (57%)

Oct:  9-5 (64%)

Nov: 10-7 (58%)

The math shows we are no better in November than we are in September.  And remember, we lost to a few bad UGA teams in November 2014, 15, and 16.

I'm not doing a Gus defense here.  Just hate the mindless narrative of "we suck early in the season" when the records show it's not really that different than any other part of our year.  And again, we're 4-1 in openers under him, 3-1 against Power 5 oppenents.  The only time we had a returning starting QB in his tenure, we crushed Arkansas and started the year 5-0.  It's one of the reasons why I like our chances in four weeks.

[DAG 33,955]

1 minute ago, Brad_ATX said:

So if we only want to look at Power 5 opponents, here's how it stacks up by month under Gus.

Sept: 8-6 (57%)

Oct:  9-5 (64%)

Nov: 10-7 (58%)

The math shows we are no better in November than we are in September.  And remember, we lost to a few bad UGA teams in November 2014, 15, and 16.

I'm not doing a Gus defense here.  Just hate the mindless narrative of "we suck early in the season" when the records show it's not really that different than any other part of our year.  And again, we're 4-1 in openers under him, 3-1 against Power 5 oppenents.  The only time we had a returning starting QB in his tenure, we crushed Arkansas and started the year 5-0.  It's one of the reasons why I like our chances in four weeks.

I am not only looking at power 5 schools . Let’s take a look at those quality of teams in September from the power 5. Beating Arkansas in 2014 is not something to jump around about. Nor is beating that lousville team who also loss to Houston the week after. I don’t think anyone is saying he sucks. I think most people just want AU to come out and blast opponents for a full game early on. Especially when we know we are the better team. We usually tend to pull away later in the game against some of these opponents. However, as I stated in a previous post, early mistakes and feeling out opponents is a recipe for disaster against top ten foes. That might work against mississippi state and Arkansas. That won’t work against top contenders. I give him props for the Kansas state win and LSU victory though.

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

15 hours ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

Yes!  AU respects Udubb.  They are a very good, very well coached team.  They should be favored in this game and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we come out of Atlanta with a win Sept. 1st. 

It will not be because we don't have the talent. It will come down to coaching IMO. And since our coaching has a history of not figuring things out until game 3 or 4 then yeah..this game worries me a lot. Everyone recalls the Clemson games but let's not forget about the OT needed against Jacksonville State (2nd game 2015) and a close game against Washington State (2013) in addition to the Clemson and Louisville first games. Hopefully, our defense can get a couple turnovers for great field position. 

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

2 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

This narrative that we suck in openers is beyond fiction.  We've lost one opening game under Gus.  That Clemson team we lost to went on to win the National Title.  In fact, only one of his five openers so far have been against a non-Power 5 team.

Openers under Gus:

2013:  31-24 W vs Washington St

2014: 45-21 W vs Arkansas

2015:  31-24 W vs Louisville

2016: 13-19 L vs Clemson

2017: 41-7 W vs Ga Southern

Some of those games shouldn't have been that close if coaching was better prepared. It took OT in game 2 in 2015 against Jacksonville St. We continue to struggle with a down LSU program; 2-3 the last 5 years. We play them early in the season. I don't expect us to come out guns blazing but with all the time we have to prepare, we shouldn't be looking so lost the first 3-4 games. Like completely lost. It happens before the season and before bowl games. It's like...what exactly going on during those times. Why is it that the more time we're given to prepare...we look like we're not prepared at all? Just strange.  

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

29 minutes ago, WarEagle1983 said:

Some of those games shouldn't have been that close if coaching was better prepared. It took OT in game 2 in 2015 against Jacksonville St. We continue to struggle with a down LSU program; 2-3 the last 5 years. We play them early in the season. I don't expect us to come out guns blazing but with all the time we have to prepare, we shouldn't be looking so lost the first 3-4 games. Like completely lost. It happens before the season and before bowl games. It's like...what exactly going on during those times. Why is it that the more time we're given to prepare...we look like we're not prepared at all? Just strange.  

One point of clarification about our record against LSU.  We have played two of our five games against them under Gus in October.

But my overall point remains.  We're often just as unprepared in November as we are early in the year, yet no one is talking about that like its the apocolypse.  Realistically, Gus should be at least 4-1 against UGA in the regular season.  We lost to three really average Dawg teams from 2014-2016.

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

22 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

One point of clarification about our record against LSU.  We have played two of our five games against them under Gus in October.

But my overall point remains.  We're often just as unprepared in November as we are early in the year, yet no one is talking about that like its the apocolypse.  Realistically, Gus should be at least 4-1 against UGA in the regular season.  We lost two three really average Dawg teams from 2014-2016.

But our competition is tougher in November. That record is more explainable than struggling against average or teams not even in the power 5. The last 5 years we've played LSU usually by at least game 4 or 5.  Gus is great in the middle of the season. I give him credit for that. We go on our runs usually after playing LSU for some reason. I just want to see a team that's not completely lost and have to eke out nail bitters against sub par teams to open the season. We struggled against Mercer...Mercer! Washington will certainly not be in that category this year b/c they are a top 10 team. I'm referring more to Gus starting and during bowl season. Yes, we should have a better record against UGA but i'm not even calling him out on that at the moment.  I'm more concerned about the fact that with so much time to prepare we look completely lost early on and during bowl season. It's just perplexing. Hopefully, Gus can shut me and others up this season by changing that. It simply hurts our chances in the championship hunt when we drop an early game that we clearly should've won if not due to coaching. 

[DAG 33,955]

17 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

One point of clarification about our record against LSU.  We have played two of our five games against them under Gus in October.

But my overall point remains.  We're often just as unprepared in November as we are early in the year, yet no one is talking about that like its the apocolypse.  Realistically, Gus should be at least 4-1 against UGA in the regular season.  We lost to three really average Dawg teams from 2014-2016.

People actually do talk about that as those games against UGA and Bama, two of our biggest rivals were the basis for him being on the hotseat. It also played dividends to him getting a huge pay raise. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

8 minutes ago, WarEagle1983 said:

But our competition is tougher in November. That record is more explainable than struggling against average or teams not even in the power 5. The last 5 years we've played LSU usually by at me 4 or 5.  Gus is great in the middle of the season. I give him credit for that. We go on our runs usually after playing LSU for some reason. I just want to see a team that's not completely lost and have to eke out nail bitters against sub par teams to open the season. We struggled against Mercer...Mercer! Washington will certainly not be in that category this year b/c they are a top 10 team. I'm referring more to Gus starting and during bowl season. Yes, we should have a better record against UGA but i'm not even calling him out on that at the moment.  I'm more concerned about the fact that with so much time to prepare we look completely lost early on and during bowl season. It's just perplexing. Hopefully, Gus can shut me and others up this season by changing that. It simply hurts our chances in the championship hunt when we drop an early game that we clearly should've won if not due to coaching. 

Our competition isn't actually that much different in November than September over the course of Gus's tenure.  Again, look at the facts instead of feelings.  We've played eight games against ranked opponents in Sept since 2013 and 10 against ranked opponents in November during the same time frame.

Of those Sept games, four were against opponents inside the top 10.  Nov had six such games.

And who cares that we struggled against Mercer last year?  No one nationally remembers that because we ultimately won and then came out and drilled our next three opponents, all conference teams, by 37, 39, and 21.  The only folks still having a conniption about that game wear orange and blue.

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

 

22 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Our competition isn't actually that much different in November than September over the course of Gus's tenure.  Again, look at the facts instead of feelings.  We've played eight games against ranked opponents in Sept since 2013 and 10 against ranked opponents in November during the same time frame.

Of those Sept games, four were against opponents inside the top 10.  Nov had six such games.

And who cares that we struggled against Mercer last year?  No one nationally remembers that because we ultimately won and then came out and drilled our next three opponents, all conference teams, by 37, 39, and 21.  The only folks still having a conniption about that game wear orange and blue.

 

Who cares? It goes to the point i'm making in regards to his slow starts. lol. I'm not looking at feelings. Competition in November is clearly different from competition in Sept. We shouldn't need OT for Mercer. We shouldn't be dropping games to a weak LSU.  The point is that Auburn can't afford to drop a game against Clemson or LSU early in the season if we want a shot at a National Championship. Especially when we're clearly the better team.

Even in 2013 we needed help from Michigan State and other games leading up to the Michigan State game to get into the championship game because we lost to a LSU team we shouldn't have. The same year game 1 be barely won against Washington St and the same game 3 against Miss. St. Also, take the loss to Clemson last year... a loss to UGA in the SEC championship game. However, could we have still been in the discussion for the playoffs b/c it would've been a split against UGA and we would've beaten Bama and Clemson. Who knows if we would've got in or not. It's hypothetical just like you stated we "should" be 4-1 against UGA but we're not.

Auburn has a small room for error. We don't get any breaks like the turds so we have to capitalize on every opportunity. Again, i'm not say we should look like well-oiled machine the first 3 games. I fully understand that but Gus has to start winning some of these game 1 against good competition to help change the narrative. This Washington game is huge IMO. No i will not be like fire Gus b/c we're stuck with him for at least a couple years but it sure as heck will not change the narrative that he's failed to win early games against significant competition. 

[WFE12 9,191]

7 hours ago, johnnyAU said:

Peterson is one of the best in the business. He'll have that team ready to go. 

I just hope we are finally prepared for an opener under Gus. 

First Auburn play, TE up the seam for 30 yds. 

It will be hilarious if Sal catches a td on the first drive.

[WFE12 9,191]

4 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Maybe it's me, but I don't care if our team looks like a cross between Roseanne Barr and Danny DeVito in a bikini

Omg why? Why?

[WFE12 9,191]

Won't be on there. 

[AUsince72 11,084]

10 minutes ago, WFE12 said:

It will be hilarious if Sal catches a td on the first drive.

He'd finally have something to dance and strut about at least.  

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

22 minutes ago, WFE12 said:

Won't be on there. 

Outside of our rivals...i think i hate Notre Dame the most. They get so much love.  Join a darn conference like everyone else. 

[augolf1716 21,096]

6 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

We are 15-6 under Gus in September.  Maybe it's me, but I don't care if our team looks like a cross between Roseanne Barr and Danny DeVito in a bikini as long as we're winning games.  Note too that four of those losses came in 2015/2016.  Our better teams (2013, 2014, & 2017) have lost twice in the opening month.  At LSU and at Clemson.

Reminds me of a blind date I had one time. No comment

[augolf1716 21,096]

6 hours ago, DAG said:

So teams with actual talent levels comparable to ours? A lot of the early teams we play our not all that great besides Kansas State in 2014 and the year we blew out LSU. I don’t have a dog in this fight but all I know is we can’t be trying to feel out in the opener against a top ten opponent . We need to have a sound game plan and the boys need to be firing on all cylinders. 

As long as Gus doesn't change the game plan the week before the game, aka Clemson, we will be OK ........I think

[Tiger 8,818]

I'm actually ok with the perceived slow start in 2013. We were coming off the worst season in our history and our goal heading into the season was to just get to a bowl. While our talent was not 3-9 bad I don't think anyone thought Chizik had left us an SEC Championship caliber roster 

 

Outside of that, we have looked painfully inept to start seasons under Gus 

[sandyclawedtiger 206]

2 hours ago, augolf1716 said:

Reminds me of a blind date I had one time. No comment

I hope you were blind drunk

..

[japantiger 4,051]

19 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

So if we only want to look at Power 5 opponents, here's how it stacks up by month under Gus.

Sept: 8-6 (57%)

Oct:  9-5 (64%)

Nov: 10-7 (58%)

The math shows we are no better in November than we are in September.  And remember, we lost to a few bad UGA teams in November 2014, 15, and 16.

I'm not doing a Gus defense here.  Just hate the mindless narrative of "we suck early in the season" when the records show it's not really that different than any other part of our year.  And again, we're 4-1 in openers under him, 3-1 against Power 5 oppenents.  The only time we had a returning starting QB in his tenure, we crushed Arkansas and started the year 5-0.  It's one of the reasons why I like our chances in four weeks.

Sad to say, but this just says we're mediocre every month against anyone with a pulse ..... we lose the opener because we have no returning starters on the line and will likely be playing 2 or 3 freshmen... $7m a year doesn't by much these days...

[Gowebb11 9,309]

I know this, I feel a lot better with a proven veteran QB leading us into a tough first game. The QB carousel we were on for a couple of years  was brutal, especially trying to play top teams early. 

[AUsince72 11,084]

Since it's the beginning of a new season, I'm nothing but sunshine and rainbows. ?

I'mma gonna give Gus the benefit of the doubt that Amen Corner Gus is the Gus we're gonna have now.  I truly believe the SECCG gameplan egg and choosing to ride KJ into the sunset was a product of his focusing on getting $49M instead of the upcoming game and simply going to his "security blanket" gameplan as discussed in another thread.  I don't excuse it but it's in the past.

I really don't blame anybody for the Peach Bowl fiasco as I completely understand the whole team was deflated.  I know I was, as a fan.  It really shouldn't have been surprising.

So.... moving forward...

I've read enough from Horton, Lindsey, Stidham, KJ, and even Gus that gives me hope for this season and moving forward.  Until we see different, I'm expecting "We Beat the Dawgcrap Outta'em" Gus to lead this team and leave #butgus behind.

Unless there's terrible team/practice news between now and Sept 1st, I'm going to believe Grimes gets the O-Line ready, CCL is more in charge of the play book and the D keeps on keeping on and I'm going to once again go into a season with excitement and confidence.

Washington is a great and exciting opponent.  Frankly I'd love for AU to have Petersen as their HC (unless Gus does step up).  This is a beautiful test to see how real this team is going to be.  I'm excited!

War Eagle!!

[boisnumber1 2,818]

1 hour ago, japantiger said:

Sad to say, but this just says we're mediocre every month against anyone with a pulse ..... we lose the opener because we have no returning starters on the line and will likely be playing 2 or 3 freshmen... $7m a year doesn't by much these days...

You sound like a whiny baby. If it's so bad, go cheer for bama. They win all the time. How long have you been an AU fan? We've been in the thick of it more in the last 8 years, than we were in the last 30, like it or not. You either have a very biased outlook, or you havent followed AU football very long. We played for the national championship twice since 2010. How many times have we done that since 1970?

[japantiger 4,051]

14 hours ago, boisnumber1 said:

You sound like a whiny baby. If it's so bad, go cheer for bama. They win all the time. How long have you been an AU fan? We've been in the thick of it more in the last 8 years, than we were in the last 30, like it or not. You either have a very biased outlook, or you havent followed AU football very long. We played for the national championship twice since 2010. How many times have we done that since 1970?

Wow.....when I went to Auburn, Gus's record against power 5 calculated to a D- (27 wins in 45 games)...but I guess you young whipper snappers using that Common Core math turned 60% into an A.  Gus is an average coach by any record.  It's just the math Bois....If you think $7m is a year is what should be payed for Average; are you hiring coaches?  If so, then where do I send my resume...I'm available.  

ESPN did a great study a number of years ago on best predictor of record and top 10 finishes.  Returning starters was the top indicator....especially linemen.  So again, it's just the math dude....

You must be great with relationships....at the 1st sign of a different POV; you turn into Linda Blair; she was in a  movie made before you were born; I'm sure you can go to a newspaper office and use their microfiche to look it up to understand the reference.