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gr82b4au

17% chance for playoffs, 3% chance for title

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This is according to the stats, predictors, etc. Clemson has a 67% chance to make the playoffs. Also is says AU is one of 2 teams (the other is ohio state) that will impact the playoffs for multiple other teams. Basically it says what everyone else is saying about our schedule - it is brutal. Here is the article:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24310810/introducing-college-football-playoff-predictor-which-likes-clemson-better-alabama

Playoff Predictor: Clemson has best shot, Notre Dame could surprise

play

Brad Edwards breaks down the five most important metrics that have led to teams making the College Football Playoff in the first four seasons. (3:31)

8:00 AM CT
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    Seth WalderESPN Analytics

If there's one team to bank on making the College Football Playoff this year, it ought to be Clemson -- and it isn't even that close.

While Alabama is the defending national champion, Dabo Swinney's team has a 67 percent chance to reach the playoff -- a full 20 percent better than the Crimson Tide.

That's the conclusion from a new metric from ESPN Analytics: Playoff Predictor. We've ranked and rated teams and their accomplishments in the past, but for the first time, we can now provide every team's chance to reach the playoff -- in the preseason and every day of the season.

So how do we come up with such a number for Clemson and every other team? This isn't just based on the whims of a few football fiends in Bristol; the model is derived from the committee's past behavior in its rankings (both in-season and on selection day) throughout the first four years of the playoff system. And through study of the committee, ESPN Analytics identified five key factors that determine each team's chance to reach the playoff.

  • Strength of Record (how much teams have accomplished)

  • FPI (how good teams are)

  • Number of losses (incorporated into SOR but the committee places even more emphasis on losses)

  • Conference championships

  • Independent status (Notre Dame can't be a conference champion, but all else being equal it might get more credit than a team that didn't win its conference championship) -- despite the committee claiming it wants the four best teams.

That's why Strength of Record is the most important factor. Fifteen of the 16 playoff teams in the past four years have ranked in the top four of Strength of Record on selection day.

So given all that, why are the Tigers so far ahead of the Crimson Tide and the rest of the field? Two key reasons.

One, because FPI considers Clemson to be the best team in college football this season, thanks in large part to having more returning starters (like Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell, who likely would have been first-round picks) than the Crimson Tide. But more importantly: Clemson has a much easier path to a conference championship.

Remember, Alabama has to contend with Auburn in its own division and quite possibly Georgia in the SEC title game. While there are those who envision a Florida State rebound or like Miami this season, there's no way to argue against the fact that Clemson, which has a 69 percent chance to win the ACC, has less to contend with in its conference than Alabama.

The Tigers also are the most likely team to win the national championship, at 24 percent, while Alabama and Georgia are tied second-most likely at 14 percent each.

Here's the full breakdown of the 20 teams most likely to reach the playoff:

 

 


Surprise contender: Notre Dame

What the heck does the Playoff Predictor think is happening in South Bend?

While most of the above results are chalky, the Fighting Irish stand out as one team whose projection does not fit with the public perception. There are two major reasons for this:

1. Notre Dame is better than many people think. It doesn't boast the sexiest offense, but the Fighting Irish actually ranked 12th in offensive efficiency last season -- a metric which considers the effectiveness of the unit on a play-by-play level and considers the strength of opponents faced. But more important than that, defensively, they ought to be stout. Notre Dame ranked 10th in defensive efficiency a season ago and is returning nine starters to that side of the ball.

2. As an independent, Notre Dame's schedule strikes a nice balance in 2018. It's difficult enough that a strong record would be an accomplishment and would catch the committee's eye, but easy enough that 11-1 -- probably the record it needs to accomplish -- is within the realm of possibility. Of course, plenty rides on Week 1, when Notre Dame takes on Michigan. A win over the Wolverines would boost the Fighting Irish's chances of reaching the playoff to 53 percent, while a loss would drop them to 23 percent.


The Big 12 is in big trouble

ESPN Analytics

How reliant the Big 12 is on Oklahoma? The Sooners have a 24 percent shot to return to the playoff, but the Big 12 as a whole has only a 29 percent chance between all of its schools combined. That's a lower percentage than six individual schools.

If Lincoln Riley can't get the Baker Mayfield-less Sooners back to the national semifinal, then the Big 12's best bet is probably Texas. If the Longhorns were to take a major step forward in Tom Herman's second season and somehow reach the playoff (3 percent chance), it would likely be on the back of its defense. After adjusting for the powerful offenses in the Big 12, last year's defense actually was the fifth-most efficient in the FBS last season and FPI projects the unit to be the third-best defense this year.

No matter what, the Big 12's chances at a championship this season are low -- even compared just to Notre Dame.

ESPN Analytics


Will SEC double-dip again?

A year after the committee showed it was willing to put two teams from the same conference into the playoff, the SEC has about a 1 in 4 shot of pulling off the stunt again, with three major playoff contenders in Alabama, Georgia and Auburn. But the SEC might not be the only conference with such aspirations.

It's a long shot, but don't rule out the Big Ten as a conference that conceivably could put two teams into the playoff given how many contenders it has. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin all have a double-digit shot at the playoff, and Michigan is right behind at 8 percent. Those values are all independent of each other, which is why the conference only has a 13 percent chance at two teams in the national semifinal. Still, that's not nothing.


The playoff could hinge on Ohio State and Auburn

All of the six highest-impact games on the playoff race involve either the Buckeyes or Tigers.

 

 

 

What's so special about those two teams? They are both playoff contenders who play in a division with at least one other major playoff candidate and a conference with at least two other major playoff candidates. Impact is measured by considering the playoff leverage for both teams in a given game and then combining it with the likelihood of each team winning. So in the case of Washington and Auburn in Week 1, both teams' chances will be greatly impacted by the result of a game that, according to FPI, is truly a coin flip.

 

 

 

Edited by gr82b4au

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That’s fine.  I have always preferred the underdog mentality with a chip on my shoulder.  That allows the rage to come out.  

 

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Pretty much every analyst I’ve seen hinges Auburn’s playoffs chance on beating Washington. Which is fair cause beating a top 6 team should nullify losing 2 games if we were to lose to either UGA or UA and a great Miss St team. (Or lose to UA and UGA, but somehow finish above UA and beat UGA in the rematch and have some other Ls go down) 

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4 hours ago, abw0004 said:

That’s fine.  I have always preferred the underdog mentality with a chip on my shoulder.  That allows the rage to come out.  

 

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3FFBE3A6-FD09-4F70-A763-C01CE2E74633.gif

Not a fan of the underdog mentality from fans but I will like for the Westbrook gifs.

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I remember back in 2010. Well after mid-season ESPN had Auburn's chance of winning the natty at 8%. It slowly crept up but didn't really look good until after the SEC CG. They can take their guess and poke it!

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I don't see the big deal about this. Year in and Year out a handful of teams seem to always be in the NC picture with several on the bubble. Now that we have the playoffs, there is a higher percentage of chance of making it to the championship game. To be considered in the top 8 out of 129 FBS schools who have any potential of making the playoffs and/or championship is pretty dang good in my book. Now it is up to us to actually follow through with it. 

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^^^^^ What he said. ^^^^^

I'll take a 17% chance to open the season any day.

That's actually pretty dang good odds when you consider the number of teams in 1A football.

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Whooo!  This opener bumped up a notch or two - AU has another shot to make the nation take notice in a premiere opener.  Just like the opportunities in the '16 &'17 CU games, this is "prime time" in a great venue to kick off the season SEC style! 

The days of crapping the bed, smearing it in the sheets, watching it slide down the sides and rubbing it into the pillows on the National spotlight are over.  It's a NEW DAY!  Time to prove your worth Tigers!

 

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6 minutes ago, keesler said:

Whooo!  This opener bumped up a notch or two - AU has another shot to make the nation take notice in a premiere opener.  Just like the opportunities in the '16 &'17 CU games, this is "prime time" in a great venue to kick off the season SEC style! 

The days of crapping the bed, smearing it in the sheets, watching it slide down the sides and rubbing it into the pillows on the National spotlight are over.  It's a NEW DAY!  Time to prove your worth Tigers!

 

That's some SERIOUS mental imagery there.... I need a shower.

....but, you're RIGHT!!

War Eagle!

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14 hours ago, abw0004 said:

That’s fine.  I have always preferred the underdog mentality with a chip on my shoulder.  That allows the rage to come out.  

 

2E0EB2DE-8260-48B5-A1E3-333A85222115.gif

 

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Edited by Scotty2Hotty

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12 minutes ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

So for the 2nd straight year we play 3 of the top 6 teams in the country.

I blame Jay Jacobs.

If you want to be the best you have to beat the best.  Strength of schedule is heavily weighed in teams being considered for playoffs.

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2 hours ago, keesler said:

Whooo!  This opener bumped up a notch or two - AU has another shot to make the nation take notice in a premiere opener.  Just like the opportunities in the '16 &'17 CU games, this is "prime time" in a great venue to kick off the season SEC style! 

The days of crapping the bed, smearing it in the sheets, watching it slide down the sides and rubbing it into the pillows on the National spotlight are over.  It's a NEW DAY!  Time to prove your worth Tigers!

 

?

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51 minutes ago, atl-tiger said:

If you want to be the best you have to beat the best.  Strength of schedule is heavily weighed in teams being considered for playoffs.

But not more so than wins and losses. Schedule makes our doorway to the playoffs ridiculous. 

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1 hour ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

So for the 2nd straight year we play 3 of the top 6 teams in the country.

I blame Jay Jacobs.

Not a huge JJ fan, but...  I don't think you can blame JJ for any of that.  We were going to play UAt & UGa not matter what.  And I am sure JJ never expected Washington to be #6 when this game was setup years ago.

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1 minute ago, jAUSon said:

But not more so than wins and losses. Schedule makes our doorway to the playoffs ridiculous. 

UCF?

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2 hours ago, Scotty2Hotty said:

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Went 2-2 against him last year.  In all seriousness I have no problem with Durant being an avid OKC fan.  He did a lot for the community and earned the right to choose where to play basketball.  

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3 hours ago, AUsince72 said:

That's some SERIOUS mental imagery there.... I need a shower.

....but, you're RIGHT!!

War Eagle!

 

1 hour ago, WaynesAUworld said:

?

Repetition helps little in my attempts to unsee. 

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3 hours ago, LKEEL75 said:

Not a huge JJ fan, but...  I don't think you can blame JJ for any of that.  We were going to play UAt & UGa not matter what.  And I am sure JJ never expected Washington to be #6 when this game was setup years ago.

Sarcasm

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18 minutes ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

Sarcasm

Sorry... Missed the yellow font :)

 

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