Upon Further Review -Arkansas Game

[StatTiger 3,188]

• Saturday night's 31-point victory is the second largest margin of victory by the Auburn Tigers since 1960, with the fewest yards gained on offense. The 1973 Auburn Tigers defeated UTC by 31-points with 193 total yards gained.
   
• The third quarter continues to be Auburn's least productive quarter when it comes to converting third downs. For the season, Auburn has converted only 16.7 percent during the third quarter. Through four games, Auburn has converted 43 percent during the first half and only 28 percent during the second half.
   
• After converting 3 of their first 5 third-down situations, the Razorbacks went 0 for 11 the remainder of the game. Through four games the Auburn defense has placed the opposition in third and ten or longer 26 times. The opponent converted only one the first 13 times (7.6%) and five during the last 13 attempts (38.5%).
   
• The Auburn offense has faced third and eight or longer 17 times this season, converting just two times (11.8%).
   
• As well as the defense has performed, they continued to be vulnerable to the big play, allowing three plays of 30-yards or more to the Razorbacks. The Tigers are currently allowing 315.7 yards per game, and 101.5 yards of it is the result of big plays allowed. Minus the ten plays of 30-yards allowed this season; Auburn is allowing 214.2 yards per game.
   
• Speaking of big plays, the Auburn offense has been putrid when it comes to generating the explosive play. Auburn averaged a play of at least 30-yards every 25 snaps last season, which has dropped to one every 93 snaps this season.
   
• With 58 offensive snaps, Auburn managed just 14 plays of 5-yards or more (24.1%), a season-low for the Tiger offense.
   
• Since allowing Washington to generate 5-yards or more on 44.6 percent of their snaps, Auburn has allowed only 28.4 percent during their last three games.
   
• 58.7 percent of the snaps defended by the Auburn defense has been held to 2-yards or less this season. Last season the Auburn defense held their opponent to 2-yards or less on 50.3 percent of their snaps.
   
• After only allowing one negative play on 99 first down snaps through three games, the Auburn offense allowed five tackles for loss against the Razorbacks on first down.
   
• Through 4 games, Anthony Schwartz and JaTarvious Whitlow, are tied for the most impact plays with five each. Darius Slayton and Seth Williams are tied with four each. Kam Martin and Shaun Shivers round out the top-5 with three plays each.
   
• The Auburn defense has taken to the field 53 times through four games with the opponent beginning their possession on their side of the field. The Tigers have surrendered only two touchdown drives (3.8 percent).
   
• Through four games, 73.2 percent of Jarrett Stidham's pass attempts have been within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. During his first 12 games at Auburn, he completed 156 passes within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. It resulted in 7.9 yards per attempt for seven touchdowns. During his last six games, he has completed 88 such passes for only 5.5 yards per attempt and one touchdown pass.
   
• Auburn rushed for 429-yards against Alabama State and 368-yards against their three combined Power-5 opponents.
   
• Last season the Auburn run-offense converted 79.2 percent of their situations of 2-yards or less to convert in conference play. This season it is a dismal 40.0 percent after two conference games.
   
• During their three Power-5 games, Auburn has run the ball 61.9 percent during the first half and 53.9 percent during the second-half. Auburn is making an effort to throw the football more frequently on first down and overall, but the issue is where the Tigers are targeting the football.
   
• Auburn is 3-5 under Jarrett Stidham when he averages less than 7-yards per pass attempt on first down and 10-0 when he is above 7-yards per attempt. The opposition has caught up with Auburn's "screen" game on first down.
   
• During their last six FBS games, Auburn has averaged 4.8 yards per play on first down, and the opponent has averaged 6.5 yards. Under Malzahn's offense, Auburn is 14-15 in Power-5 games when the Tigers average less than 5-yards per first-down play. The Tigers scored an average of 22.8 PPG during those 29 games.
   
• Jarrett Stidham has completed only 38.5 percent of his third-down passes the last three games for 2.5 yards per attempt, converting only 3 of 13 situations.
   
• Under Gus Malzahn's offense, Auburn is 12-22 in games the Tigers are held to under 20 first downs, scoring an average of 20 points per game. This includes a 9-19 record in conference play.
   
• During the three seasons before Kevin Steele arrived at Auburn, the Tigers recovered only 28 percent of the fumbles forced. Since Steele has arrived, Auburn has recovered 45 percent and 57 percent since the 2016 season.
   
• Based on a rating formula factoring yards gained, yards per play, points scored, impact plays, 3rd down efficiency and 1st down efficiency, Auburn's performance against Arkansas last night was the 42nd worst performance in conference play from 1992-2018. Auburn had worst offensive performances during SEC wins over LSU in 1994, 2007 Arkansas, 2006 LSU, 2008 Tennessee, 2008 Miss State, 1993 Ole Miss, 1993 Vanderbilt, 2000 Alabama and 1992 LSU.
   
• Regardless of their scoring percentage inside the red zone, Auburn is 28-5 under Gus Malzahn when the Tigers have at least five red zone possessions.
   
• Though run defense has improved under Kevin Steele since he arrived at Auburn, it is important to evaluate the success of run defense on the level of competition. During the three seasons before Steele took over the Auburn defense, the Tigers held only 26 of their 40 opponents under their rushing average. Steele's defense has held 29 of 31 opponents under their rushing average. Through four games this season, Auburn has held their opponent to 29.9 percent below their rushing average. This is a slight drop from 33.2 percent during 2017. Auburn's four opponents have averaged only 149.5 yards rushing per game, and the Tigers have yet to face a good run-offense this season.
   
• Before last night's game, Auburn under Gus Malzahn was 4-13 in games against Power-5 competition when the Tigers lost the tackle for loss and first down production battle. It reveals how important special teams were against the Razorbacks.
   
• A slow start for a Malzahn offense is rarely successful. Combining their first 4 possessions during their last 2 games, Auburn has averaged only 16-yards per possession on 3.7 yards per play. The Tigers scored on only 2 of the 8 possessions and both scoring possession began inside scoring territory.

War Eagle!

[weagl1 1,781]

Thanks Stat for quantifying what we already know.  Our defense is very good and our offense is very bad even though we have a supposedly have an offensive guru for a head coach.  Maybe he can get it together at some point but it sure does look bad right now, especially when guys start jumping ship.  

[Swamp Eagle 5,128]

Stat, can you send this as a weekly mailer to Gus and Chip?

[ToomersStreet 795]

3 hours ago, weagl1 said:

Thanks Stat for quantifying what we already know.  Our defense is very good and our offense is very bad even though we have a supposedly have an offensive guru for a head coach.  Maybe he can get it together at some point but it sure does look bad right now, especially when guys start jumping ship.  

I would like Stat to  do a stat on how much our offense has struggled with this so called "Guru" over the last six years and compare it with Tubs first six  years.

[oracle79 3,569]

8 hours ago, StatTiger said:

The Auburn offense has faced third and eight or longer 17 times this season, converting just two times (11.8%).

That is mind boggling.

[fishepa 1,900]

10 hours ago, oracle79 said:

That is mind boggling.

It is, but I'm not exactly shocked.  We just don't have a passing game to pick up 8-15 yards.  We either throw bombs or run screens and expect the receiver to break 4 tackles to get the first down.  Neither of those are exactly high percentage plays.

[aufan@una 3]

@StatTiger in terms of the result of a play, is there a statistically significant difference between the results for pass plays that happen within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage where the receiver is moving forward as in a quick hitting slant off a RPO vs when the receiver is moving laterally in the screen game?

[Beaker 2,457]

Thanks StatTiger!   Crazy good work.

 

We are getting these results after 8 months of planning and preparation.   Wow.   And we are paying $583,000 per month.   Wow. 

I guess I am disappointed.  

Edited September 25, 2018 by Beaker