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StatTiger

Upon Further Review -Southern Miss Game

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  • During the last three games the Auburn offense has converted 2 of 10 third-downs during the first quarter and 1 of 8 during the final quarter. If the slow starts and weak finishes continue, there is likely four more losses on the horizon. It brings into question the initial game plan and the inability to adjust during game time.
     
  • Auburn's average distance on third down against USM was 9.56 yards. Penalties and poor production on first down consistently put the offense in the hole. The constant penalties and occasional rash of turnovers is a sign of a lack of discipline.
     
  • During the last four games, the Auburn defense has held the opponent to less than 5-yards per play, 72.1 percent of the time.
  • 67.7 percent of the Golden Eagles offensive snaps netted 2-yards or less, a season-high for the Auburn defense. Except for the occasional big play surrendered, the Auburn defense has been very consistent this season.
     
  • During their four FBS games this season, the Auburn offense has been held to 3-yards or less on first down, 48.3 percent of the time. Winning on first down allows the offense to play "downhill", something Auburn has been unable to do.
     
  • Last season only 12.2 percent of Auburn's possession began on the opponent's side of the field. This season it has increased to 23.2 percent. This is huge when you consider Auburn scores 28 percent of the time, starting a possession on their side of the field and 56 percent, beginning a drive on the opponent's side of the field. As poorly as the offense has performed this season, the Tigers need all the help they can get. Field position will play a make factor the remainder of the season in terms of wins and losses. Special teams and defensive turnovers create short fields.
     
  • Field position will be essential for Auburn moving forward. Auburn's opponent has scored only seven times from 47 possessions (14.9%) beginning at least 75-yards away from the Auburn end zone. Of those seven scoring drives, only one resulted in a touchdown. Defense, special teams and any big plays generated by the offense will be the formula for winning the remainder of the season.
     
  • 69 percent of Jarrett Stidham's pass attempts the past two games have been within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. The high percentage of short passes makes the offense predictable and easier to defend.
     
  • After JaTarvious Whitlow injured his shoulder during the second quarter, Kam Martin had 24 carries and Auburn's remaining running backs combined for one attempt. Shaun Shivers, Asa Martin, and Malik Miller were on the field but the coaching staff elected to ride Kam Martin the remainder of the game. There is no reasonable logic for not playing other backs under this circumstance.
     
  • ·During the last three games, the Auburn offense has a statistical grade of 33.3 percent, while the defense is 70.8 percent and special teams are 70.0 percent. One of the major issues is a running game that has gained 163-yards during the first half on 60 attempts or 2.7 yards per attempt.
     
  • After going 6 of 12 in short-yardage situations (2-yards or less) against Arkansas and LSU, Auburn was 5 of 6 against Southern Miss. Facing way too many third and long situations, the offense MUST take advantage of the short yardage situations.
     
  • Last three games Auburn has attempted 36 first down passes for 5.8 yards per attempt.
     
  • During Auburn's last seven FBS games, the offense has averaged 4.88 yards per play on first down with the goal being six yards per play.
     
  • Sustaining drives the past four games has become a significant issue for the Auburn offense. The Tigers have attempted 23 passes on third down the last four games and have converted only 6 of those plays for an average of 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Overall, Auburn is 15 of 51 in third downs the last four games. The combination of poor performance on 1st and 3rd downs is the essential reason the offense has sputtered this season.
     
  • Since 1995, Auburn is now 68-4 in games they do not lose the tackles for loss battle, the turnover margin and first down battle. Can Auburn reach that goal in 5 of their last seven regular season games?
     
  • Through 5 games, the Auburn offense is averaging 376.2 yards per game, scoring 18 offensive TD's. The 2011 Auburn offense averaged 370.6 yards and scored 16 TD's and the 2015 offense averaged 343.0 yards and scored 14 TD's. It has been bad this season but it has been worse in the past. The 2003 offense averaged 372.4 yards and scored 16 TD's. The 2008 Auburn offense averaged 329.4 yards per games and scored only 8 TD's during the first 5 games. The 2012 Auburn offense averaged 302.4 yards per games, scoring just 7 TD's.
     
  • Since taking over the defense, Kevin Steele's defense has held the opponent to 23 points or less during 24 of 32 games, meaning his defense has put his team in position to win 75 percent of the time. Auburn is 20-4 during those 24 games the opponent was held to 23 points or less. How many of Auburn's remaining regular-season opponents will the defense hold to 23 points or less?

War Eagle!

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I’m not at practice and don’t see the day to day effort given by particular players , but one thing I have observed from CGM is that if does not trust players, he doesn’t give them enough opportunities to showcase their talent.   On one play , you can tell that Milik Miller has potential.   

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The 2003 offensive disaster led to Jetgate and the arrival of Borges. The 2008 fiasco led to Tubervilles' "resignation." The 2012 embarrassment led to Chiziks' firing.
Not very comforting that those years are the years mentioned as having even worse offensive teams than we have now. And before the normal Gus fans hammer me, I know he's not going anywhere. But to see folks blaming Chip, Stidham, the OL etc. mystify me. The guy whose name is on the door got this job based on his offensive prowess. He is ultimately responsible for this units (lack of) performance.

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44 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

I’m not at practice and don’t see the day to day effort given by particular players , but one thing I have observed from CGM is that if does not trust players, he doesn’t give them enough opportunities to showcase their talent.   On one play , you can tell that Milik Miller has potential.   

Yep.  1 fumble and you are benched for at worst the game.  2 fumbles and your career to make a difference at Auburn is shot. 

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20 Combined SEC starts on the OL entering the year......

With that VERY inexperienced OL, we've played so far:

The #9, #17 and #38 ranked teams in total defense

The #4 and #11 teams in Pass Yards Allowed

The #7, #9 and #45 ranked teams in Rush D

The #4(Tied, with bammer, we are #3), #15 and #21 teams in Scoring D - less than a TD separates #1 from #21

And a Hog team that is pretty clearly on a mission to improve every week.

Just sayin' that there are two teams on the field, and they mighta had jes a li'l to do with our abysmal O performances. Washington, LSU, and yes, USM, are not chopped liver. USM was #9 in total D coming into this game. Their 1 pt loss to ULM was their 1st since 1987 to ULM in a fluky game where they lost 2 picks, 2 fumbles and missed 2 FGs. 

Bammer is ranked in the 20's (or worse) in all but Scoring D against a cupcake schedule, for reference. (Since so many use them as a yardstick.)

MSU ranks pretty high in all D categories as well, so a 3-2 rerun might not be out of the question next week. I'd take it and leave Starkville smiling from ear to ear. 

Stid definitely has a case of happy feet. He is moving around at times when he should be setting up and throwing. At least two of the false starts tonight looked to be on our brand new C not snapping the ball when he was supposed to. Both of those are eminently fixable. If you watched (and literally heard) USM run over Kam in the backfield when he pass blocked last night in the 2nd half, that's why you wouldn't have had the much smaller, younger Worm Shivers in on those plays. 

I'm not giving up on this season yet......I think no more than 2 more L's the rest of the way, if we get past MSU and their noise. The one thing that could cause more losses would be losing both starting tackles, which we might have done last night. 

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4 minutes ago, AUBwins said:

Yep.  1 fumble and you are benched for at worst the game.  2 fumbles and your career to make a difference at Auburn is shot. 

On the other hand, whiff at a block that leads to the fumble, and you remain an O-lineman indefinitely. ?? 

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4 minutes ago, TigerHorn said:

The #9, #17 and #38 ranked teams in total defense

I appreciate your optimism. But there is a difference in letdowns due to youth and growing pains, and a complete discombobulation. Our offense is in a complete state of chaos, and our O-line has not only failed to improve, they have regressed mightily. Teams are not beating us with exotic blitzes or 1st round elite pass rushers. The last 2 weeks, Arky and USM played base with 3-4 d lineman, surged straight ahead, and consistently lived in our backfield. They beat us all night rushing 3-4 against 5-6 blockers. At some point a coaching staff has a responsibility to fix that or at least show improvement. 

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I’d be interested to know the breakdown of 1st down plays this season.  Are they throwing more?  How many yards on 1st down pass compared to run etc.

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Well as an offense this team doesn't look good and while all the blame cant be blamed on the OL.......they deserve the lion's share.......our offensive guards could have been called for holding on nearly every play........hate being critical because on my best day I couldnt do  half as good as they do on their worst......

 As a team other areas are stepping up to get the wins.....which is what teams do.........it took LSU's best performane and a little help to beat Auburn........and LSU may be the real deal at the end of the day.....

While I am dissapointed with some of gameplay.......I couldnt be more proud of how they fight as a team........War Eagle!

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1 hour ago, kevon67 said:

Well as an offense this team doesn't look good and while all the blame cant be blamed on the OL.......they deserve the lion's share.......our offensive guards could have been called for holding on nearly every play........hate being critical because on my best day I couldnt do  half as good as they do on their worst......

 As a team other areas are stepping up to get the wins.....which is what teams do.........it took LSU's best performane and a little help to beat Auburn........and LSU may be the real deal at the end of the day.....

While I am dissapointed with some of gameplay.......I couldnt be more proud of how they fight as a team........War Eagle!

Well put 

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32 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

The first stat in the post is everything ... poor planning, limited adjustment = coaching failure 

I don't disagree........just pointing out positives?

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6 hours ago, StatTiger said:

After JaTarvious Whitlow injured his shoulder during the second quarter, Kam Martin had 24 carries and Auburn's remaining running backs combined for one attempt. Shaun Shivers, Asa Martin, and Malik Miller were on the field but the coaching staff elected to ride Kam Martin the remainder of the game. There is no reasonable logic for not playing other backs under this circumstance.

Hmmmm ... I feel like I've seen this exact same thing before. I'm not sure where, though. *insert yellow font*

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-- Kam Martin "was definitely a bright spot" offensively.

-- Difference in Kam Martin last night? "Yeah, I think he made quick decisions, was a little more assertive."

-- "I think all backs have their own style.... Maybe that is (Martin's) style."

From Chip Lindsey's post game presser.

Isn't it funny how a running back magically got better once he was allowed to actually carry the damn football a few times? 

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22 hours ago, StatTiger said:

69 percent of Jarrett Stidham's pass attempts the past two games have been within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. The high percentage of short passes makes the offense predictable and easier to defend.

I see this number actually increasing. I mean we have no other choice at this point, right? The O line is terrible and the main RB is now out for weeks. We really should (or have to ) incorporate a quick passing scheme with a few runs and deep passes to keep them honest. 4 wide with a 1 back set ? 

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16 hours ago, tgrogan21 said:

Hmmmm ... I feel like I've seen this exact same thing before. I'm not sure where, though. *insert yellow font*

it is a combo of of a few things. 1) they have no trust in freshmen to tote the rock for fear of a turnover and 2) Kam was going to transfer and he was told he would get carries. But to be honest - neither of those excuses work. You play the best RBs and don't run one into the ground.

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22 hours ago, StatTiger said:

After JaTarvious Whitlow injured his shoulder during the second quarter, Kam Martin had 24 carries and Auburn's remaining running backs combined for one attempt. Shaun Shivers, Asa Martin, and Malik Miller were on the field but the coaching staff elected to ride Kam Martin the remainder of the game. There is no reasonable logic for not playing other backs under this circumstance.

This is just speculation, but I suspect that it has to do with the fact that they trust Kam Martin to protect the football and the other RBs, not so much.  It's debatable whether that's 'reasonable logic'.

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23 hours ago, StatTiger said:

69 percent of Jarrett Stidham's pass attempts the past two games have been within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage.

Would you happen to have the percent of his passes that are 30 yards or longer?  Just curious how many intermediate throws that leaves room for after adding up the short and deep throws.

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Once we get a few minor details worked out our offense can be great!

1.  Offensive philosophy of HC

2.  Play calling of OC

3.  Tougher mentality on offense (especially OL)

4.  Find better OLinemen than we currently have, or teach these to block someone, anyone.  

5.  Stidham (or another QB) to scan the field better and faster and get rid of the ball before he gets sacked. 

6.  Take what the defense gives you.  It’s ridiculous to keep trying the same junk when everyone knows what you’re going to do, schemed for it, and shut it down over and over again.  (see 1 and 2)

7.   Use the talent we have.  We have no OL and some very talented receivers.  We should be running a lot of 3 step drops, quick reads, slants, fades, etc.  taking advantage of the talent we have and minimizing our weaknesses.  (see 1 and 2)

These few minor details would be a great start!

Sorry, I just needed to beat that dead horse again.  I feel better now. 

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On 9/30/2018 at 12:04 PM, StatTiger said:
  • After JaTarvious Whitlow injured his shoulder during the second quarter, Kam Martin had 24 carries and Auburn's remaining running backs combined for one attempt. Shaun Shivers, Asa Martin, and Malik Miller were on the field but the coaching staff elected to ride Kam Martin the remainder of the game. There is no reasonable logic for not playing other backs under this circumstance.

While I agree other backs should've been utilized a bit more, KMart seemed to really be gaining some steam towards the end of the game.  He was running with some attitude and anger on that last drive.

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15 hours ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

Sorry, I just needed to beat that dead horse again.  I feel better now. 

We're all here for therapy. It's basically just a bunch of people holding hands and singing 'Lean On Me' cleverly disguised as arguments and pissing matches.

:grouphug:

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11 hours ago, bigbird said:

While I agree other backs should've been utilized a bit more, KMart seemed to really be gaining some steam towards the end of the game.  He was running with some attitude and anger on that last drive.

And we should totally have *individual games* where we ride the hot hand.

Man. Not even going to be able to enjoy watching KMart go off and be proven right this season, are we?

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