pro gamblers feeding frenzy against auburn

[aubiefifty 16,699]

Professional gamblers in a feeding frenzy against Auburn

Updated 2:55 PM; Posted 2:41 PM

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn watches on during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Ole Miss in Auburn, Ala., Saturday, Oct. 7, 2017. Auburn won 44-23. (AP Photo/Thomas Graning)

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By Christopher Smith

Auburn opened as a 20.5-point home favorite against Tennessee on Sunday at BetOnline, the first offshore sportsbook to release college football lines each Sunday afternoon.

By Monday morning, professional gamblers had bet so much money on the Vols that the line moved a full four points down to Auburn -16.5, with indications it could move even further.

That's a continuation of a recent trend of sharp bettors profiting off of Auburn's offensive struggles.

Since beating Washington 21-15 in the season opener, the Tigers are 1-4 against the spread. Auburn was a little fortunate to beat the Huskies, and ridiculously fortunate in their lone cover since then, a 34-3 win against Arkansas.

In that game, Arkansas outgained Auburn by 65 yards and ran 12 more offensive plays. Yet the Tigers still won by 31 points thanks to two turnovers, a kickoff return for a touchdown and offensive scoring drives of 27, 1, 10, 0, 72 and -10 yards. (The word "offensive" has a double meaning there.)

Even with that unfortunate non-cover, bettors who have gone against Auburn since the season opener are doing well for themselves.

If you've bet $100 on Auburn's opponent against the spread during that time, you've made $263.64. Which doesn't sound like much. But consider that it's a 52.7 percent ROI in essentially one month. When's the last time any of your investments did that well?

Back to this week's matchup against the Vols. According to The Action Network, 76 percent of the money wagered on this game so far has backed Tennessee.

Think about how remarkable that is. Tennessee is 2-3, but the wins have come against an FCS team and UTEP, which is 0-6 and the team most people consider the worst in all of FBS. The Vols have lost by exactly 26 points in all three Power 5 games they've played this season.

Professional bettors feel that Auburn, at home, won't be able to beat Tennessee by 17.

Which is fair, considering Auburn's offense has scored 11 touchdowns in five games against FBS opponents.

I'm not here to break out pitchforks against Gus Malzhan. Auburn just gave him a significant contract extension last offseason.

He's beaten Alabama twice in five years at the peak of Nick Saban's powers, securing SEC West championships both times. He's 26-17 against SEC competition, which isn't going to win him any Hall of Fame spots, but it's not bad in the SEC West, considering he had a 2-6 season in 2015.

Particularly, I don't think Malzahn gets enough credit for hiring Kevin Steele as defensive coordinator when Will Muschamp left to become South Carolina's head coach prior to the 2016 season. Most thought it was a puzzling hire at the time, and almost everyone assumed it was a downgrade compared to Muschamp.

Instead, the decision looks brilliant in retrospect. Auburn has allowed 17.2 points per game since hiring Steele, compared to 25.8 the previous three years. There were times where some groused that Malzahn's offense never would allow the defense to excel.

It's also easy to understand why Malzahn would trust his offensive system so completely. He was once an innovator in college football, in the truest sense of the word.

And Malzahn couldn't have guessed that his offensive line and running backs would struggle this much, even after losing four starting offensive linemen and an array of very good SEC ball-carriers for several years running.

But his insistence on running his offense, and not adapting to his personnel, has cost the team this year. And let's not forget his stubbornness in the second half of the loss at LSU in 2017.

That's not to say that this offense would be capable of looking like Alabama's with just a few tweaks. A bad offensive line can't be hidden so easily.

Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt is very familiar with Auburn's offense. He's facing it for the sixth consecutive season as a defensive coordinator with his fourth different team. (Florida State in 2013, Georgia in '14 and '15, Alabama in '16 and '17 and Tennessee this year.)

The Vols also have had two weeks to prepare for this game and enjoyed a bye week Saturday, while Auburn was smashing against Mississippi State in a physical road game.

The Tigers have to go back on the road next week against Ole Miss, so this is a sandwich game of sorts, a home game against a bad SEC team in between road SEC West contests.

Malzahn also is 8-18-1 ATS as a home favorite since the magical 2013 season.

In other words, this is not a good schedule spot to back Auburn as a bettor either.

Fortunately, Auburn's defense is good enough to dominate this Tennessee team. Based on both teams' performances this year, I suspect the Vols will manage between 10 and 17 points.

Let's split the difference and say Tennessee scores 14. Do you trust this Auburn offense to score 31 or more right now? It scored 24 against Southern Miss and 27 against Arkansas.

I'm siding with the pros on this game, and managed to get a Tennessee +20.5 ticket Sunday afternoon.

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper. He's the founder of Sports Locksmith and also works full-time for MyBookie out of Costa Rica.

[thrustmaxwell 413]

No news here.  Betting against the spread's made me some coin the last 3 seasons.  Under has been good to me as well.

[AU64 10,122]

Betting for or against AU and taking the points has been a rocky process for as long as I can remember....our famous preference for being the underdog.   JMO but whoever is establishing the opening spread needs to do a bit more research on the matter unless the purpose of big opening spreads is to provide some professional betters with a chance to get an advantage of later arriving amateurs.    

JMO but, NOBODY who has been watching AU's offense would consider that the team is 20 points better than any other SEC team.....though I guess we managed to get by Arky with that margin. 

 

[SaltyTiger 7,763]

2 hours ago, AU64 said:

JMO but, NOBODY who has been watching AU's offense would consider that the team is 20 points better than any other SEC team

If anyone had been watching this team the way we have Auburn would have never been ranked in the top 15 this year. I have no clue how the pros do it. 

[AU64 10,122]

Just now, SaltyTiger said:

If anyone had been watching this team the way we have Auburn would have never been ranked in the top 15 this year. I have no clue how the pros do it. 

Started based on two expectations:    1)  Heisman trophy QB    2)  Best DL in the country....well maybe behind bama and Clemson...

Once you are up there the burden of proof is on you to show that you DO NOT belong there....which is now happening. 

[sandyclawedtiger 206]

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