Fire Gus (merged threads)

[keesler 5,924]

17 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

 

Here's the thing...the vast majority of the time even the elite programs don't just pluck an elite coach from someone else.  They hire up and comers.

Georgia:  When Dooley retired in 1988, they promoted his RB coach Ray Goff.  Goff was succeeded by Jim Donnan, the HC at Marshall.  Next was Mark Richt - the OC at FSU.  And now Kirby - the DC at Alabama.

Alabama:  After Bryant they hired an alum, Ray Perkins - a middling coach in the NFL.  He was followed by Bill Curry (lol), Gene Stallings (a failed coach in the NFL), Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchione (HC at TCU) and then Shula before getting Saban.

LSU:  a laundry list of no names and has beens.  When they hired Saban in 2002, he was just an up and comer at Michigan State.  Then Miles who was a pretty good get from Oklahoma St. and now Oregeron.

Florida:  Hit it big with UF alum Spurrier.  Floundered grabbing a one-year NFL DC in Ron Zook.  Hired up and coming Urban Meyer away from Mountain West Conference Utah.  Since then hired a coordinator (Muschamp), a HC from a Group of Five team (McElwain), and a HC from a mid tier SEC team.

Clemson:  laundry list of nobodies, promoted Swinney to interim HC then HC and took him six seasons to break through.

About the only "went out and got an elite coach" examples I've seen in recent times were Michigan getting Harbaugh, Bama getting Saban, and Ohio State getting Meyer.  All of them required some good fortune and none of them were swiped from another big time program.  Michigan had pursued Harbaugh, a UM alum, for years and his gig with the Niners was souring.  Saban had jumped to the NFL and quickly realized it was a disaster and wanted back in the college game, conveniently just as Shula's run was coming to an end.  Meyer had "retired" for health reasons and just happened to be available as the Tressel thing was falling apart and one year under Fickell.  There might be an example out there I'm missing but the point is taking an elite coach from somewhere else is about as rare as hen's teeth.  Most schools hire a guy from a lower tier program, or an up and coming coordinator.

Maybe your definition of elite coach is different from what I'm thinking so you're welcome to expound.

No need for me to expound, you gave an excellent breakdown of the rarity of any program pulling an elite coach ~ and it further's my notion that Auburn isn't going to be able to do it in my lifetime.  We all want UF-OSU/Meyer - LSU-UAT/Saban caliber, they're few and far between so then we want CU/Dabo - FSU-aTm/Fisher - caliber and they are hard to come by as well.  Hell, at this point I feel like CGM's resume is equivalent to a WU/Patterson or a UGA/Smart and yet it's not enough.

[Tiger 8,818]

10 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Based on what I’ve heard some notable Auburn people say on the radio today it may be win or gone for Gus this weekend.  Steele as interim and Lindsey running the O.  That’d either be complete team implosion or the light would come on.

What kind of world are we living in where an Auburn win over Ole Miss dictates whether the man is fired or not. If we have arrived at this place he should be fired anyways.

[keesler 5,924]

1 minute ago, Tiger said:

What kind of world are we living in where an Auburn win over Ole Miss dictates whether the man is fired or not. If we have arrived at this place he should be fired anyways.

+1 If the MSU (1st yr HC) and UT (1st yr HC) losses didn't do it, then OM (2nd yr HC) ain't going to swing the pendulum one way or the other.  PTB won't make a definitive decision until the season ends, all this white noise from the radio heads and "journalists" means nothing at this point. 

[AUwarrior 26]

6 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

This is a fallacious way of seeing this - the idea that we've invested so much in him we have to ride it out unless there's a clear better option.  Sometimes you don't have a clear way to make it better, but you still have to cut your losses.  Stop throwing good money after bad or in this case, stop allowing the program to sink further and further into irrelevance, creating a major rebuilding job for the next guy just so save some coin.

In Year Six, we know what we have with Gus.  We're kidding ourselves if we think it's going to get better.  He's an 8-5, 7-6 type coach who every few years will pop up and shock everyone.  That's not good enough.

I don't think it's that cut and dry to know what you have in a coach with only 6 years experience. People would have said the same thing about Saban after his 6th year and CGM has had more success than him up to that point of his career. Does that mean CGM is the next Saban, HELL NO!  But we've come this far so unless we can get a big dog I'd rather see how CGM develops over the next couple seasons rather than start the process over again. It may not matter because his buyout is so large for the next couple seasons. I dont know what the highest buyout ever paid to a HC was but the highest I could find was 13M to Jim Mora from UCLA and we are a few years from being in that neighborhood.  I think if we did pay the $30M+ to fire him it would be major negative PR for AU. Bottom line is we all want to win and we are in a tough situation. War Eagle!

[Tiger 8,818]

@AUwarriorIn what capacity would it be negative PR for us to fire him with the buyout? It'd show the rest of the landscape that we are serious about winning and we will pay for it. Coaches around the country are understanding Gus is not a good coach so us cutting him loose wouldn't deter anyone from coming to AU IMO. They know he's a joke at this point in his career due to inability to progress his system. Coaches talk to one another, I promise it's not a secret. I bet Pruitt, Saban, and Smart all have shared many laughs laughs over how dumb our offense and how it's run is.

Shoot, even Ed O is probably chuckling it up with Aranda after their literal one adjustment put our O into the tank last season.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

1 minute ago, AUwarrior said:

I don't think it's that cut and dry to know what you have in a coach with only 6 years experience. People would have said the same thing about Saban after his 6th year and CGM has had more success than him up to that point of his career.

Not really an apples to apples comparison between Michigan State and Auburn, but ok.  Saban came in after MSU went 0-11 the year before and had won 8 or more games only 4 times in the previous 28 seasons (they won 8 three times and 9 once).  Saban improved them to 6-5-1 his first season and hung there until his fifth year, when he went 9-2.  Gus on the other hand came in two seasons removed from a national championship, with many of the player he'd recruited for his system still there and took off, only to have spectacular ineptitude in the three seasons that followed.  He partially puts it together last year after a craptastic showing at Clemson and an inexplicable loss at LSU after leading by 20 and goes on a run, only to see it die on the vine because he can't recruit more than one good tailback.

Now here we are with many of the pieces back from that run and we're staring at 6-6, if we're lucky enough to win this weekend.  And it's not just that we'd be 6-6, it's the bumbling, Keystone Cops way we get there.  We look absolutely lost.  

 

1 minute ago, AUwarrior said:

Does that mean CGM is the next Saban, HELL NO!  But we've come this far so unless we can get a big dog I'd rather see how CGM develops over the next couple seasons rather than start the process over again. It may not matter because his buyout is so large for the next couple seasons. I dont know what the highest buyout ever paid to a HC was but the highest I could find was 13M to Jim Mora from UCLA and we are a few years from being in that neighborhood.  I think if we did pay the $30M+ to fire him it would be major negative PR for AU. Bottom line is we all want to win and we are in a tough situation. War Eagle!

Sometimes you have to swallow the bitter pill.  Putting it off fixes nothing.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Bill Clark makes less than 1 million at UAB btw.

[keesler 5,924]

13 minutes ago, AUwarrior said:

I don't think it's that cut and dry to know what you have in a coach with only 6 years experience. People would have said the same thing about Saban after his 6th year and CGM has had more success than him up to that point of his career. Does that mean CGM is the next Saban, HELL NO!  But we've come this far so unless we can get a big dog I'd rather see how CGM develops over the next couple seasons rather than start the process over again. It may not matter because his buyout is so large for the next couple seasons. I dont know what the highest buyout ever paid to a HC was but the highest I could find was 13M to Jim Mora from UCLA and we are a few years from being in that neighborhood.  I think if we did pay the $30M+ to fire him it would be major negative PR for AU. Bottom line is we all want to win and we are in a tough situation. War Eagle!

Gus' buyout reaches unprecedented waters and it's the $15mm within 30 days of termination that hits so hard.  Les Miles buyout was just above $9mm over 6 yrs, Bret Bielema's was $12mm over 3 yrs if I remember correctly.  Mora's was stiff as well.

But "if" AU goes the route of canning CGM this season, this buyout will be record setting at the college level fo sho.

 

[keesler 5,924]

19 minutes ago, AUwarrior said:

I don't think it's that cut and dry to know what you have in a coach with only 6 years experience. People would have said the same thing about Saban after his 6th year and CGM has had more success than him up to that point of his career. Does that mean CGM is the next Saban, HELL NO!  But we've come this far so unless we can get a big dog I'd rather see how CGM develops over the next couple seasons rather than start the process over again. It may not matter because his buyout is so large for the next couple seasons. I dont know what the highest buyout ever paid to a HC was but the highest I could find was 13M to Jim Mora from UCLA and we are a few years from being in that neighborhood.  I think if we did pay the $30M+ to fire him it would be major negative PR for AU. Bottom line is we all want to win and we are in a tough situation. War Eagle!

As I've said dozens of times, a comparison of any kind btwn Gus Malzhan & Nick Saban is an exercise best avoided.

Nick Saban has a pedigree, he came from superior breeding in the coaching realm.  He's always had valuable resources, top shelf mentors and priceless experience under his belt. 

Gus' roots are in high school with a Houston NUTT/Gene Chizik caliber breeding.

[SKIPPER_01 99]

25 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

 We look absolutely lost.  

Sometimes you have to swallow the bitter pill.  Putting it off fixes nothing.

Ok Titan, I'm with you. 

Hotty Toddy this weekend.

My short list is:

1. Cristobal

2. Kiffin

3. Brohm

[DAG 33,964]

Why do people keeping comparing Michigan State and Auburn? This argument has been used 1000x. It is nowhere near the same thing 

[AURealist 2,185]

53 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Based on what I’ve heard some notable Auburn people say on the radio today it may be win or gone for Gus this weekend.  Steele as interim and Lindsey running the O.  That’d either be complete team implosion or the light would come on.

This is all (probably) just magical thinking.  The same type that has others thinking Gus just needs a little bit more time and encouragement to turn things around.  We're looking like a bunch of Gomer Gumps either way we go with Gus now.  

I seriously doubt his $30M future is riding on one game against OM.  But then again, we're Auburn and our leaders are clearly stupid, so just about anything can happen.

[DAG 33,964]

And another thing. Elite coach parameters are so subjective. Dabo is considered elite now. However, he wasn't elite until he became elite if that makes sense. He wasn't a slam dunk hire when he first came on. I think what people want is a proven coach but again that is a small minority. As Titan posted, they were very few proven coaches available to hire. A couple failed at the NFL level and fell in the lap of universities. Another was UM who pretty much ran from UF. Otherwise, you got to do your due diligence to find your Dabo 

[bigbird 60,460]

1 hour ago, Tiger said:

What kind of world are we living in where an Auburn win over Ole Miss dictates whether the man is fired or not. If we have arrived at this place he should be fired anyways.

A win would just postpone the inevitable...

 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

1 hour ago, keesler said:

Gus' buyout reaches unprecedented waters and it's the $15mm within 30 days of termination that hits so hard.  Les Miles buyout was just above $9mm over 6 yrs, Bret Bielema's was $12mm over 3 yrs if I remember correctly.  Mora's was stiff as well.

But "if" AU goes the route of canning CGM this season, this buyout will be record setting at the college level fo sho.

 

Which is why all of this canning Gus talk is hogwash. I am not saying he does not deserve it but come on... Auburn will never shell out $15 million in 30 days. That is nuts. And Gus will never take less. 

[PigskinPat 2,575]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

Not really an apples to apples comparison between Michigan State and Auburn, but ok.  Saban came in after MSU went 0-11 the year before and had won 8 or more games only 4 times in the previous 28 seasons (they won 8 three times and 9 once).  Saban improved them to 6-5-1 his first season and hung there until his fifth year, when he went 9-2.  Gus on the other hand came in two seasons removed from a national championship, with many of the player he'd recruited for his system still there and took off, only to have spectacular ineptitude in the three seasons that followed.  He partially puts it together last year after a craptastic showing at Clemson and an inexplicable loss at LSU after leading by 20 and goes on a run, only to see it die on the vine because he can't recruit more than one good tailback.

Now here we are with many of the pieces back from that run and we're staring at 6-6, if we're lucky enough to win this weekend.  And it's not just that we'd be 6-6, it's the bumbling, Keystone Cops way we get there.  We look absolutely lost.  

 

Sometimes you have to swallow the bitter pill.  Putting it off fixes nothing.

Don’t start derailing this conversation by using common sense and facts.

[PigskinPat 2,575]

Just now, gr82b4au said:

Which is why all of this canning Gus talk is hogwash. I am not saying he does not deserve it but come on... Auburn will never shell out $15 million in 30 days. That is nuts. And Gus will never take less. 

Auburn might not but Auburn people absolutely will.

[AEAugirl 9,623]

I still wonder if Arkansas really came after Gus or if Jimmy Sexton took advantage of the situation in the AD and played Auburn like a fiddle.  

[Auburn Kev 1,653]

8 minutes ago, AEAugirl said:

I still wonder if Arkansas really came after Gus or if Jimmy Sexton took advantage of the situation in the AD and played Auburn like a fiddle.  

 

[TitanTiger 20,472]

16 minutes ago, AEAugirl said:

I still wonder if Arkansas really came after Gus or if Jimmy Sexton took advantage of the situation in the AD and played Auburn like a fiddle.  

I can't say for sure, but what I believe happened is that Arkansas was dead serious about getting Gus, but Gus was never planning to go to Arkansas.  That's a major rebuild with multiple recruiting challenges compared to Auburn.  Meanwhile he just won the West and had his starting QB coming back, most of the defense, and a killer WR corp along with a Top 10 recruiting class.  Gus/Sexton used the Arkansas interest to the hilt but unless Auburn totally stonewalled him or the offer was just insulting, he was never leaving.

[TigerFanAU 586]

1 minute ago, TitanTiger said:

Gus/Sexton used the Arkansas interest to the hilt but unless Auburn totally stonewalled him or the offer was just insulting, he was never leaving.

It's still amazing how Sexton is fooling universities with this act. He's been doing for over a decade. Saban to Texas etc...

[keesler 5,924]

13 minutes ago, AEAugirl said:

I still wonder if Arkansas really came after Gus or if Jimmy Sexton took advantage of the situation in the AD and played Auburn like a fiddle.  

Bert was a big old slab of dead pork by 10/21/17 after AU beat him - then he proceeded to beat OM by 1 pt and Coastal Carolina by 1 pt and lost the remainder of the games.  While our fan base (spurred on by the media) were ready to can Gus after that horrible LSU loss on 10/14/17. 

The timing of it all started at the volatile moment between Arky's collapse  (10/21) and Gus losing the lead to LSU (10/14) - Sexton went for the kill shot, stirred up the rumor mill, secretly contacted/sourced some mediots, crept onto some message boards and the whirlwind commenced.  The whole thing got really squirrely when Gus won out and made it to ATL, but by that time Gus/Jimmy already had the AU contract sealed.

 

[TitanTiger 20,472]

Just now, TigerFanAU said:

It's still amazing how Sexton is fooling universities with this act. He's been doing for over a decade. Saban to Texas etc...

The thing is, he just knows how to play poker.  And when he knows he has a legitimate offer on the table from the likes of Texas or Arkansas, he has nothing to lose.  Sure, his client may prefer to stay, but he doesn't have to advertise that to the school he's negotiating with.  And if it all falls apart, what's the worst that happens?  Saban gets paid a bazillion dollars to coach Texas and Gus gets a fat paycheck for a fresh start back home in Arkansas.  It's literally win-win for him, mostly win-win for his client, but not for the school he's negotiating with. 

Easy to win when you hold all the cards.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

27 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

Auburn might not but Auburn people absolutely will.

I find all of the talk fascinating, but still...  This is like fantasy stuff we are talking about here, right? I read rivals, and what the mod over there is selling is subscriptions. I think he is casting a net like a "shock" journalist and people are jumping in like fish. Talking about firing the president of a university or the head football coach ? Talking about not paying him or paying him less money to bow out? That is crazy talk.  IF we canned Gus we would have to pay per his contract because if we did not, there would not be a coach to want to come here...ever. Maybe there are some super rich boosters (not Tim Cook) that are willing to pony up this cash but come on...it seems very, very far fetched. 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

3 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

We're a public university and Gus is a public employee.  His contract is readily available and has been posted here elsewhere.  There is no fine print.  We'll either pay him the full amount or figure out a way to negotiate it down with him. 

Even without further negotiations, we have one of the top athletic departments in the country in terms of value. Revenues approaching $150M last year alone. Surplus in profit too. GM's buyout against the numbers removes quite a bit of anxiety about the financial hit IMO.