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StatTiger

Tennessee Game Report Card

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Turnovers by the offense and hideous play on defense in third & long were the story of this football game. There were the usual issues such as the lack of a running game and poor pass protection to go along with a defense that has surrendered explosive plays all season long. But overall, this version of the Auburn Tigers is just a bad offensive team coupled with a defense that fights every week to keep the Tigers in the ball game.

Auburn's defense allowed eight third-down conversions of at least 8-yards, surrendering 169-yards on the eight successful conversions. On the remaining 60 snaps defended, Auburn allowed only 3.8 yards per play but the 21.0 yards per play allowed on third and long destroyed any success the Tigers had on defense. I cannot recall a game in recent memory, where Auburn's defense played so poorly in third and long.

The first two Auburn offensive possessions appeared to be a good start for the Tigers, but Auburn had only 10 points after four possessions, despite gaining 207-yards on offense. It has been a trademark of Gus Malzahn's offense when it comes to the first four possessions of the game.  From 2015-2018, Auburn has been held to 10 points or less during the first four possessions of the game 26 times, averaging only 21.3 PPG when it occurs. Auburn is 10-16 during those games and 8-12 in conference play.

Bottom line, if the offense cannot score more than 10 points during their first four possessions of the game against a Power-5 opponent, there is a higher probability for a loss than a victory. During his last nine games, Jarrett Stidham has 13 combined fumbles and interceptions and 11 combined passing and rushing touchdowns.

Similar to last week's performance against Mississippi State, there were several moments of blown opportunities on offense. Jarrett Stidham missed on a couple of deep balls, and Darius Slayton dropped a potential deep ball for a touchdown. Last week it was four plays out of 59 snaps, and this week it was three of 80 snaps. Some will focus on less than ten plays to extract some form of moral victory or hope for the future. The reality is Auburn lost these last two games primarily on the remaining 132 snaps. The only positive from this game was the players did not quit.

Midway into his sixth season as head coach, Gus Malzahn has a team that cannot run the football and cannot protect the quarterback. His best running back is a converted quarterback with a bad shoulder and there isn't a reliable and prepared backup at quarterback to take over for Jarrett Stidham. The offensive line lacks experience and is playing hurt with very little depth to tap into. One of the starters transferred in from U-Mass and quickly became a starter. It is a nightmare scenario for a first-year head coach rebuilding a program, so how did Auburn arrive here after six years?
 

Game #7 Statistical Evaluation (Tennessee Game)

Offensive Report Card

01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [4.72] fail
02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [56.2%] pass
03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [3.70] fail
04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [30.8%] fail
05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [38.5%] fail
06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [7.00 yds] fail
07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] pass
08) TD red zone above 60%: [66.7%] pass
09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [34.4 yds] pass
10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [47.5%] pass
11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [1.0] fail
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [26.7] fail
13) At least 8 impact plays: (10) pass
14) At least 2 big plays: (1) fail
15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [125.3] fail
16) Yards to Point Ratio of 14.0 or under: [18.7] fail

Score: 6 of 16 (37.5%) Fail

Defensive Report Card:

01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [4.40] pass
02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [52.6%] fail
03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less: [1.9] pass
04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [41.7%] fail
05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [25.0%] fail
06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [10.3 yds] fail
07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] fail
08) TD red zone below 60%: [0.0%] pass
09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [33.0 yds] fail
10) 40% or less of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [50.0%] fail
11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [2/0] fail
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [34.0] pass
13) Less than 8 impact plays: (10) fail
14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: (4) fail
15) Pass rating below 125.0: [172.3] fail
16) Yards to point ratio of 18.0 or higher: [13.2] fail

Score: 4 of 16 (25.0%) Fail

Special Teams Report Card:

1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [44.3] pass
2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [0.0] pass
3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [N/A]
4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [N/A]
5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [15.0] fail
6) PAT’s (100%): [3/3] pass
7) FG Pct (75% or above): [50.0%] fail

Score: 3 of 5 (60.0%) Pass

* 50% is a passing score.
 

War Eagle!

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Keep up the good work stat.   I don’t know how you do it,  I have a hard time watching the product on the field,  much less figure up what went wrong.   But thanks for providing 

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The third down defensive performance reminds of the tenure of P.W. Underwood as DC. I can remember dreading third and long situations when the defense was on  the field.

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All about turnovers.  One player had a bunch of turnovers.  That player was not playing up to par and should have been replaced.  Qb should not be treated differently than Wr or Rb.  He wasn’t the reason this team was in the game.

 Boobee’s injury made a change more necessary.  

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Thanks Stat.  How are we rebuilding after year 6.....   Does CGM have an identity, is he a detailed driven coach committed to his identity?   He CGM committed to excellence and holding his coaches accountable?

i think not or how can one explain we are a running program with a piss poor o-line and 2nd tier RB?

 

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20 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

... so how did Auburn arrive here after six years?

By gifting huge guaranteed contracts to coaches that haven't earned them.

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21 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Midway into his sixth season as head coach, Gus Malzahn has a team that cannot run the football and cannot protect the quarterback. His best running back is a converted quarterback with a bad shoulder, and there isn't a reliable and prepared backup at quarterback to take over for Jarrett Stidham. The offensive line lacks experience and is playing hurt with very little depth to tap into. One of the starters transferred in from U-Mass and quickly became a starter. It is a nightmare scenario for a first-year head coach rebuilding a program, so how did Auburn arrive here after six years?

I believe the answer is poor recruiting at O-line and running back. I don't see a quick remedy for these areas of weakness and or lack of depth. It appears on the surface that we are going to have to watch a long slow tragedy unfold to a throughly decent man and possibly a brillant  offensive play caller that happens to not be a very good HC or recruiter.

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Gus hired back the OL coach he let go because he couldn't recruit. His RB coach has been looking to jump ship for 2 years. Dell McGhee turned him down. Bad situation.

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1 minute ago, CR said:

Gus hired back the OL coach he let go because he couldn't recruit. His RB coach has been looking to jump ship for 2 years. Dell McGhee turned him down. Bad situation.

Grimes left on his own accord to coach with his son at Cincinnati.  

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1 minute ago, around4ever said:

Grimes left on his own accord to coach with his son at Cincinnati.  

Some well respected posters on here confirmed that was a cover for all involved.

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50 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Turnovers by the offense and hideous play on defense in third & long were the story of this football game. There were the usual issues such as the lack of a running game and poor pass protection to go along with a defense that has surrendered explosive plays all season long. Overall, this version of the Auburn Tigers is just a bad offensive team and a defense that fights every week to keep the Tigers in the ball game. Auburn's defense allowed eight third-down conversions of at least 8-yards, surrendering 169-yards on the eight successful conversions. On the remaining 60 snaps defended, Auburn allowed only 3.8 yards per play but the 21.0 yards per play allowed on third and long destroyed any success the Tigers had on defense. I cannot recall a game in recent memory, where Auburn's defense played so poorly in third and long.

 During his last nine games, Jarrett Stidham has 13 combined fumbles and interceptions and 11 combined passing and rushing touchdowns.

  Similar to last week's performance against Mississippi State, there were several moments of blown opportunities on offense. Jarrett Stidham missed on a couple of deep balls, and Darius Slayton dropped a potential deep ball for a touchdown. Last week it was four plays out of 59 snaps, and this week it was three of 80 snaps. Some will focus on less than ten plays to extract some form of moral victory or hope for the future. The reality is Auburn lost these last two games primarily on the remaining 132 snaps. The only positive from this game was the players did not quit. Midway into his sixth season as head coach, Gus Malzahn has a team that cannot run the football and cannot protect the quarterback. His best running back is a converted quarterback with a bad shoulder, and there isn't a reliable and prepared backup at quarterback to take over for Jarrett Stidham. The offensive line lacks experience and is playing hurt with very little depth to tap into. One of the starters transferred in from U-Mass and quickly became a starter. It is a nightmare scenario for a first-year head coach rebuilding a program, so how did Auburn arrive here after six years?

War Eagle!

 

Stat, what I see is a D that knows it has to gamble to win. They cant just be good, they have to be great AND look to possibly score for the Lack of O.

The real disappointing thing for this team is that they are not getting better in any aspect of the game. They are losing ground every week.

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5 minutes ago, CR said:

Some well respected posters on here confirmed that was a cover for all involved.

I wouldn't want to coach with Gus either.  I was surprised Grimes came back.  

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I encourage anyone interested to listen to Bryan Matthews podcast post game Tennessee. Blasting the coaches for not playing Asa Martin, says this is the worst group of RB's at AU since the Bowden days. Says Gus has done a terrible job recruiting every position on offense and said Leath did a terrible job on the contract. Thinks there is a chance he is bought out if this thing keeps going downhill.
And Bryan's not a flame thrower, but he's brutally honest. Philip Marshall he's not.

Edited by CR

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2 minutes ago, CR said:

I encourage anyone interested to listen to Bryan Matthews podcast post game Tennessee. Blasting the coaches for not playing Asa Martin, says this is the worst group of RB's at AU since the Bowden days.
And Bryan's not a flame thrower, but he's brutally honest. Philip Marshall he's not.

IMO, the RBs are not the problem.  They have nowhere to run. When they do find a seam or get around the corner they are fine.  The OLine is the problem with the running game.  Kam Is too light to run up the middle.  Miller is coming into his own.  I would like to see Asa get some touches.  I hope our plan is to redshirt Joiner.  

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Just now, around4ever said:

IMO, the RBs are not the problem.  They have nowhere to run. When they do find a seam or get around the corner they are fine.  The OLine is the problem with the running game.  Kam Is too light to run up the middle.  Miller is coming into his own.  I would like to see Asa get some touches.  I hope our plan is to redshirt Joiner.  

He didn't single them out, I just couldn't type everything I heard. Gus and Leath caught more heat(fairly I think) than anyone.

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1 hour ago, Win4AU said:

All about turnovers.  One player had a bunch of turnovers.  That player was not playing up to par and should have been replaced.  Qb should not be treated differently than Wr or Rb.  He wasn’t the reason this team was in the game.

 Boobee’s injury made a change more necessary.  

AU’s failures run much deeper than turnovers.

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2 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Midway into his sixth season as head coach, Gus Malzahn has a team that cannot run the football and cannot protect the quarterback. His best running back is a converted quarterback with a bad shoulder and there isn't a reliable and prepared backup at quarterback to take over for Jarrett Stidham. The offensive line lacks experience and is playing hurt with very little depth to tap into. One of the starters transferred in from U-Mass and quickly became a starter. It is a nightmare scenario for a first-year head coach rebuilding a program, so how did Auburn arrive here after six years?

Inexcusable on every level.

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Thanks, Stat. Good analysis as usual. Very disappointing. I don't think it would have been much different with the Coaching, and play on both sides of the line if we were playing the  "Tennessee State Game".

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Thanks Stat.  It’s a sad day to be an Auburn Tiger.  Every week I go in thinking it just has to get better.  Then it gets worse.  I have never seen an Auburn OL this bad.  The QB is shell shocked needs to take a seat.  The defense is giving out from staying on the field the whole game.  It’s just a mess and I don’t think Gus has a clue about how to fix it.  

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1 hour ago, around4ever said:

IMO, the RBs are not the problem.  They have nowhere to run. When they do find a seam or get around the corner they are fine.  The OLine is the problem with the running game.  Kam Is too light to run up the middle.  Miller is coming into his own.  I would like to see Asa get some touches.  I hope our plan is to redshirt Joiner.  

Miller played pretty well but he may be the slowest player to ever wear an AU jersey. Asa Martin is the only hope going forward and I can't fathom why he wasn't involved today. 

But as others have stated - it doesn't matter much if the OL can't get any push. Their performance was dreadful all day. 

Edited by Sani-Freeze

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Did you guys see how different Schwarts made the whole tempo???? Bench Stidham and put in Malik with Schwarts and we have a Poster Gus offense.... Boy Schwarts is fast. 

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