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StatTiger

Upon Further Review -Ole Miss Game

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The team effort we witnessed against Ole Miss was present the week before against Tennessee.  The difference in the outcome of the two games was better execution in critical moments of the game. Auburn did not commit self-destructing errors against Ole Miss as they did against the Volunteers. Auburn's defense allowed Tennessee to convert 7 of 10 third-down situations of at least eight yards.  Auburn's remaining opponents this season converted only 9 of 63.  The three turnovers against Tennessee were poor decisions on the part of the quarterback.  Take the sack on all three plays and Auburn survives to play another series. Both offensive game plans were to feed the football to the playmakers and for the most part, Auburn was successful in both games.

 

Looking at the big picture, Auburn's three losses this season are inexcusable, but the team cannot afford to look back at what could have been. The only element they have control over is the remaining games to be played.  Auburn has more than enough talent to win their next three football games. The outcome of the next three games will be no different from the first eight games. The coaching staff must place their personnel in a position to be successful, and the players must execute and limit their mistakes.  The bye week allows the players to rest up and for the coaching staff to self-evaluate their team.  The coaches and players need to focus on the "short-term" goals, treating each remaining game as a season within a season.

 

  • Auburn's ten impact plays netted 303-yards, a season-high against FBS competition. JaTarvious Whitlow was responsible for five of the plays for 142-yards. Through eight games, Auburn's top-4 playmakers are JaTarvious Whitlow (13), Seth Williams (12), Anthony Schwartz (10) and Darius Slayton (10). During the last three games, the quartet is responsible for a combined 277-yards per game on 12.0 yards per play. Add Ryan Davis, and Shaun Shivers to the game plan and Chip Lindsey has plenty to work with to win the next three games.

 

  • During the first five games of the season, Auburn's opponent gained at least 5-yards on 31.1 percent of their snaps. During the last three games, it has increased to 43.9 percent. The defense is tired and in dire need of the upcoming bye week.

 

  • Auburn averaged 6.3 yards per play on first down against Ole Miss, a season-high for the Auburn offense against an FBS opponent. Malzahn's Auburn teams are 31-2 when they average at least 6-yards per play on first down and 19-23 when they do not.

 

  • During the last three games, Sal Cannella has been targeted more in the passing game than Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz. Cannella during the last three games averaged 6.2 yards per reception, while Schwartz averaged 24.7 yards and Williams, 24.0 yards per catch. The time has come to target the playmakers rather than trying to make someone a playmaker. Sal Cannella can still have a role in the offense but not at the expense of limiting the proven personnel.

 

  • Through eight games, Auburn's defense has defended 67 possessions beginning at least 75-yards away from the Tiger's goal line. They have surrendered only three touchdown drives. Special teams, field position, and turnovers will likely decide the outcome of Auburn's next three games. Gus Malzahn must dig deep to become a better situational coach the next two games.

 

  • During the past five games, 61.3 percent of Stidham's pass attempts are within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. He has completed only 33.9 percent of his passes beyond 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. Regardless of how Stidham has performed this season, he will be needed to make plays in the intermediate range to win the next two conference games. During his last ten games, Stidham is completing 49 percent of his intermediate passes and only 33 percent of his deep balls.

 

  • Auburn averaged 4.4 yards per rush during the first half against the Rebels and 7.5 yards during the second half.

 

  • 57 percent of Auburn's offensive snaps were part of a scoring drive, a season-high against an FBS opponent.

 

  • Auburn averaged 40.3 yards per offensive possession, a season-high for the Tiger's offense.

 

  • Last season 31 percent of Auburn's offensive touchdowns were scored outside the red zone. This season it has dropped to just 16 percent, the lowest percentage of touchdowns outside the red zone since 1974. The lack of the big play on offense this season has stymied the offense. The decision to focus the game plan on the playmakers is beginning to show results. During the first five games, Auburn averaged a play of at least 30-yards, every 58 snaps. During the last three games, it has improved to 1 every 34 snaps.

 

  • Auburn has been out-gained on first down during seven of their last eleven games, posting a 6-5 record.

 

  • The Tigers went back to running heavily on first down with 80.6 percent of the snaps being run plays. Auburn had run the ball 57.6 percent on first down this season, coming into the Ole Miss game. Emphasizing the running game against the Rebels was an excellent "short-term" decision. First down play selection could change against the next two conference opponents.

 

  • Auburn's offense under Gus Malzahn is now 58-10 during games the Tigers attempt at least 45 runs.

 

  • The Auburn defense is allowing a TD every 56.9 plays, the best ratio since the 1989 Auburn defense. Hopefully, the bye week is the spark needed to pump up a defense with rubber legs.

 

  • Auburn's pass-efficiency defense is currently at 112.9, fifth-best among the last 25 Auburn defenses. Except for the occasional play of 20-plus yards, Auburn's pass defense has been relatively consistent this season.

 

  • Auburn has now been scored on in 15 consecutive quarters, the longest such stretch since the 2015 season.

 

  • During Auburn's last 12 conference games, the opponent has attempted 372 passes and the Tigers have intercepted only two of those passes.

 

War Eagle!

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I would love an analysis of how many times per game Auburn has targeted the middle of the field in the passing game, and what percentage of those plays have been successful. It seems to me that the completion percentage is very high, yet the attempts per game are extremely minimal. 

  Some things in the Malzahn/Lindsey offense continue to puzzle me. One being what you alluded to in your analysis, the lack of targets for Williams. Or, why when a deep ball is attempted its almost always Slayton that is the target. Call me crazy, but I think I would make somebody on the defense have to try to keep up with Shwartz at least 3, or 4 times per game on a deep ball.

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7 hours ago, StatTiger said:

 

  • Last season 31 percent of Auburn's offensive touchdowns were scored outside the red zone. This season it has dropped to just 16 percent, the lowest percentage of touchdowns outside the red zone since 1974. The lack of the big play on offense this season has stymied the offense. The decision to focus the game plan on the playmakers is beginning to show results. During the first five games, Auburn averaged a play of at least 30-yards, every 58 snaps. During the last three games, it has improved to 1 every 34 snaps.

 

War Eagle!

Stat; hopefully  if we can get the receivers in space this can change quickly.    

Another huge issue is our lack of ability to force turnovers these last three games.   If we can get consistent pressure maybe this will change.  

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6 hours ago, jluvah said:

Stat, your last bullet point is mind boggling! 2 out of 372!!

I don’t recall them. I think we got two vs udub. 

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6 minutes ago, alexava said:

I don’t recall them. I think we got two vs udub. 

That stat was for conference games. 

Aside from any against UW, we had 3 against ASU.

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1 minute ago, yngwie1995 said:

That stat was for conference games. 

Aside from any against UW, we had 3 against ASU.

Maybe one vs UT early? I missed much this of the last two games. 

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1 hour ago, Wings said:

It’s because Stidham doesn’t see the field and they’re afraid he will throw picks over the middle.

Perhaps but mostly he sets his eyes on his receiver immediately and everyone in the defensive backfield knows where the ball is going and they close on the intended receiver.  .   On those few occasions where JS  looks one way and then checks the other side of the field, our guys are wide open.  There seems to be great potential for stop and go routes....and trailing receivers crossing the middle ...JMO

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2 hours ago, Wings said:

It’s because Stidham doesn’t see the field and they’re afraid he will throw picks over the middle.

So you're saying in two years no one has been able to teach him to read coverages. About what I expected.

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8 minutes ago, Eagle-1 said:

So you're saying in two years no one has been able to teach him to read coverages. About what I expected.

Doesn't mean that they have not tried......can lead a horse to water and all that.....

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8 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Doesn't mean that they have not tried......can lead a horse to water and all that.....

QB issues seem to be a recurring theme at Auburn, and the one common denominator: Gus Malzahn. Unless you want to give him credit for teaching Nick Marshall, and Cam Newton how to run.

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12 hours ago, Eagle-1 said:

QB issues seem to be a recurring theme at Auburn, and the one common denominator: Gus Malzahn. Unless you want to give him credit for teaching Nick Marshall, and Cam Newton how to run.

Cam and nick also read defenses very well and improved as their time here progressed. Jeremy never did. Some can some can’t. Coaching is a part of it. QBs are very hard to find and evaluate. 

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13 hours ago, AU64 said:

can lead a horse to water and all that.....

When all your horses die of thirst, somethings wrong with the water.

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1 hour ago, oracle79 said:

When all your horses die of thirst, somethings wrong with the water.

Much as I hate this kind of response...but Cam and Nick say hello....:)

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4 hours ago, AU64 said:

Much as I hate this kind of response...but Cam and Nick say hello....:)

Weak. They drank their fill before they arrived.

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1 hour ago, oracle79 said:

Weak. They drank their fill before they arrived.

Talk about weak.....???  JUCO ?    

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Not looking to argue with you guys, but you have to be able to read defenses yourself before you can teach someone else to. I'll just leave it at that.

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On October 22, 2018 at 12:10 PM, AU64 said:

Much as I hate this kind of response...but Cam and Nick say hello....:)

Woody, John, Jason, Jonathan, Zeke, Kodi, Kiehl, Tyrik, Sean, Tyler and Jeremy say hello back? ;D

Edited by amsterjam
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1 hour ago, amsterjam said:

Woody, John, Jason, Jonathan, Zeke, Kodi, Kiehl, Tyrik, Sean, Tyler and Jeremy say hello back? ;D

And none of them became QBs above the FCS level but I can name that many unsuccessful QBs at about any school you care to name.   JMO but seems that most if not all of them were over-rated by HS ranking services...

And I'm still putting it on JS to show that he is a real NFL prospect.....and seems that he has accepted personal responsibility for what's going on which is good to hear.   The OM game was a small step forward....hoping to see the next step against TAUM. 

 

Added comment.....and not that it matters much but the much maligned names of Sean and Jeremy can be found in the AU record books among top 10 QB performances....along with Nick and Cam and Todd and Stidham.    The game has changed of course and a good percentage of single season offensive records for AU,  ..passing and rushing have been set in the last ten years. 

Edited by AU64

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On 10/21/2018 at 9:34 AM, StatTiger said:

The time has come to target the playmakers rather than trying to make someone a playmaker. Sal Cannella can still have a role in the offense but not at the expense of limiting the proven personnel.

Why this wasn't the plan since March is so frustrating

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5 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Why this wasn't the plan since March is so frustrating

Seth not targeted til 3rd qtr at Ole Miss. I just don't get it.

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12 hours ago, bigbird said:

Why this wasn't the plan since March is so frustrating

This past March, or every March since Gus has been here?

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On 10/23/2018 at 10:08 PM, CR said:

Seth not targeted til 3rd qtr at Ole Miss. I just don't get it.

I’m just guessing but maybe the play was called and Jt audibles out or didn’t see him. But I agree. Williams would get 5-6 targets minimum every game. Schwartz too. But we start running out of snaps when we theoretically script touches. 

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