Keith Predicting The Class

[ellitor 33,062]

Since Keith usually makes these free I thought it would be cool to keep up with & see how things progress through the cycle. Only the link will be provided because the article is too long. Here's his late Octoner projection...

https://auburn.247sports.com/ContentGallery/Predicting-the-2019-Auburn-Tigers-football-recruiting-class-123797400/

 

Long way to go but would be Gus' best class on paper by a good margin in terms of total points (284.65) & project to a 5th-8th finish the past 5 years. And leave room to add a Grad Transfer to the mix, likely as an OL.

[CR 2,427]

I would hate to be trying to predict AU's recruiting class. This has the makings to be one of the most unpredictable signing periods in recent memory. Good work by Keith as usual.

[gc2525 17]

8 hours ago, ellitor said:

Since Keith usually makes these free I thought it would be cool to keep up with & see how things progress through the cycle. Only the link will be provided because the article is too long. Here's his late Octoner projection...

https://auburn.247sports.com/ContentGallery/Predicting-the-2019-Auburn-Tigers-football-recruiting-class-123797400/

 

Long way to go but would be Gus' best class on paper by a good margin in terms of total points (284.65) & project to a 5th-8th finish the past 5 years. And leave room to add a Grad Transfer to the mix, likely as an OL.

I would gladly finish with Keith's prediction.....that would be a very good class

[Beaker 2,457]

That would be a crazy good class.   

Wouldn't that be sweet if Cain fell into our laps?   

 

[steeleagle 2,945]

3 hours ago, gc2525 said:

I would gladly finish with Keith's prediction.....that would be a very good class

I didn't look at it, but where are the weaknesses showing in this class, as to what we didn't get enough of in quality and numbers?

After following recruiting, for sure over the last 5-6 years of Malzahn's term, the end has brought either euphoria, or heartbreak,  with the top recruits we are fighting for, with the likes of Bamas, Clemsons, FSU, and GAs of the world.

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, steeleagle said:

I didn't look at it, but where are the weaknesses showing in this class, as to what we didn't get enough of in quality and numbers?

OT & 1 LB below planned & as Mikey would say needed. Would be a good to great class on paper everywhere else.

[AU64 10,122]

Not many from Alabama....is that indicative of the available talent ….or ????   

[ellitor 33,062]

42 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Not many from Alabama....is that indicative of the available talent ….or ????   

Not really. There is some good talent at the top of the state. 4 of the top 6 are likely Bama bound. We would take all 4 if we could.  #8 is a QB we don't need. #7 is a local LB/Buck we didn't start recruiting til late & he's now committed to UF. 9 & 10 aren't needed, 11 was never interested in AU,  Counting the in state committed kids we would have taken 10-11 in state if we could get them. 13 4*s or better is the 2nd most in state rated recruits in the last 7 classes.

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

Not really. There is some good talent at the top of the state. 4 of the top 6 are likely Bama bound. We would take all 4 if we could.  #8 is a QB we don't need. #7 is a local LB/Buck we didn't start recruiting til late & he's now committed to UF. 9 & 10 aren't needed, 11 was never interested in AU,  Counting the in state committed kids we would have taken 10-11 in state if we could get them. 13 4*s or better is the 2nd most in state rated recruits in the last 7 classes.

Thanks.....seems maybe we've lost some ground to bama in the state....for this year at least maybe?   Nice that Georgia has so much talent and UGa can't take 'em all. 

Despite our discussions over the years about reaching out, we still apparently pretty much recruit within 4 or 5 hours of campus.. 

[fredst 9,064]

16 hours ago, AU64 said:

Despite our discussions over the years about reaching out, we still apparently pretty much recruit within 4 or 5 hours of campus.. 

As has been stated before, there isn’t much need to do otherwise. If we can be successful in AL/ GA/FL, we can get top 10 classes pretty much just from that, our traditional recruiting grounds. Add MS, and the gives us a few more quality players to potentially sign. Anyone we attract from outside that area is gravy, not a lot of need to sink lots of resources into other places; a satellite camp or two if feasible might be worthwhile as well as pursuing the occasional “special case” (that’s right, I’m talking Jonah Williams, JB😒). Bammer taking more from elsewhere just opens regional doors honestly.

[AU64 10,122]

2 minutes ago, fredst said:

As has been stated before, there isn’t much need to do otherwise. If we can be successful in AL/ GA/FL, we can get top 10 classes pretty much just from that, our traditional recruiting grounds. Add MS, and the gives us a few more quality players to potentially sign. Anyone we attract from outside that area is gravy, not a lot of need to sink lots of resources into other places; a satellite camp or two if feasible might be worthwhile as well as pursuing the occasional “special case” (that’s right, I’m talking Jonah Williams, JB😒). Bammer taking more from elsewherejust opens regional doors honestly.

JMO but a national top ten or top 12 class usually puts us in 4th place in the SEC.  And while we are getting mostly  4* and 3* players, we are often recruiting in the second tier of top players in adjacent states. ..maybe getting just one or two of the best ten players.. 

SO....if we are demanding that our coaches win conference championships or make it to the playoffs, we gotta have more talent than we are getting now...JMO. 

That link E posted is very interesting and if you go to it,  you can check the top players by each state and who they are committed to.  Pretty revealing. And whether they did not want AU or we did not want them....AU has mostly struck out in Alabama this year. 

[ellitor 33,062]

2 hours ago, AU64 said:

seems maybe we've lost some ground to bama in the state.

Not really. They've always gotten most of the in state guys they wanted under Saban. Some years they don't do much in state because they feel there is better talent out of state they want.

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

Not really. They've always gotten most of the in state guys they wanted under Saban. Some years they don't do much in state because they feel there is better talent out of state they want.

Last year we had 6 of the top 20 and bama 2 from in-state.    Is that because they did not want any others or we can't sign anyone that bama has an interest in?    Could be true but if that's the case it's hard to see how we ever catch them....since it's unlikely we get any top player from any other state that the "name" state university wants. 

[AU64 10,122]

3 hours ago, ellitor said:

Just suggesting that I'm not impressed that our current / incoming class is gonna do much to close the gap with our two powerhouse neighbors. 

[ellitor 33,062]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

SO....if we are demanding that our coaches win conference championships or make it to the playoffs, we gotta have more talent than we are getting now...JMO.  

Would be nice but it's not a neccessity. Many teams in the BCS & playoff eras have proved you can get to the playoffs or title game if you are getting top 10-12 classes even while still finish 3rd or 4th in your conference in recruiting rankings. What we need is better talent retention & development.

6 hours ago, AU64 said:

whether they did not want AU or we did not want them....AU has mostly struck out in Alabama this year. 

Striking out can only consist of players you want but didn't get. The players not wanted can later be deemed misses only if they develop well wherever they go.

[ellitor 33,062]

On 10/26/2018 at 9:59 PM, AU64 said:

Just suggesting that I'm not impressed that our current / incoming class is gonna do much to close the gap with our two powerhouse neighbors. 

Outside of Bama the gap isn't on talent acquisition. It's in talent retention & development as noted in another post.

[ellitor 33,062]

7 hours ago, fredst said:

As has been stated before, there isn’t much need to do otherwise. If we can be successful in AL/ GA/FL, we can get top 10 classes pretty much just from that, our traditional recruiting grounds. Add MS, and the gives us a few more quality players to potentially sign. Anyone we attract from outside that area is gravy, not a lot of need to sink lots of resources into other places; a satellite camp or two if feasible might be worthwhile as well as pursuing the occasional “special case” (that’s right, I’m talking Jonah Williams, JB😒). Bammer taking more from elsewherejust opens regional doors honestly.

I GIF-fed the wrong post earlier. This is the one I meant...

[ellitor 33,062]

3 hours ago, AU64 said:

Last year we had 6 of the top 20 and bama 2 from in-state.    Is that because they did not want any others or we can't sign anyone that bama has an interest in?    Could be true but if that's the case it's hard to see how we ever catch them....since it's unlikely we get any top player from any other state that the "name" state university wants. 

Of the top 20 in state last class AU wanted 11, 9 of which were in the top 12. Looks like the staff thought there was a pretty good talent gap after 12. Of the top 20 Bama only wanted 6 in the end but only landed 2. 5 of the 6 Bama wanted in the top 20 were in the top 11 so it looks like they thought there was a talent gap after the 1st 11 or 12 also. FWIW it's rare that Alabama high school football produces 20 guys in a class who are high level SEC talent. A better number to look at in state is usually in the 12-15 range on a given year.

And we get some out of state kids each year in state university schools wanted. This year, as of now. there's Pappoe, Handy, Gordon, Zion, & Kelly. That's 5 & 1/3 of the current class so far as well as 42% of the out of state commits to this point. Not that rare.

[AU64 10,122]

Did I hear correctly that 6 bama commits were playing in the H-T vs Thompson game last night?   Amazing?   

[ellitor 33,062]

4 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Did I hear correctly that 6 bama commits were playing in the H-T vs Thompson game last night?   Amazing?   

Yes. 4 in this class & 2 in the next class.

[AU64 10,122]

2 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Yes. 4 in this class & 2 in the next class.

Thanks...and of course the AU bound kids too.

Our local HS has had one Div 1 commit in the past 2 years though we played a team that had 4 of them earlier this year and got waxed.

Hard to believe so many college bound kids on the same field as in the game last night.

 

[corchjay 5,311]

Just gonna throw this out there.  Regardless of 247 rankings which they do a great job... but Nix and Pickens are the best 2 players in the state.  Kight and Quick probably next...  Webb is Top 10ish but I would be hard pressed to put him in the top 5. 

Speaking in regards to the 6 Bama commits last night in the game.  Kight is still looking around some.  The juniors Moore and Worsham are solid but both are a little overrated.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see Bama look around to replace Moore.  Worsham just depends on how much size he adds over the next year.  Decent hands and great speed already.

[corchjay 5,311]

4 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Thanks...and of course the AU bound kids too.

Our local HS has had one Div 1 commit in the past 2 years though we played a team that had 4 of them earlier this year and got waxed.

Hard to believe so many college bound kids on the same field as in the game last night.

 

64 you have to remember for the most part these are the best players money can buy in the state.  Very good coaches in the region as well.  The only good team in the region that I’m not aware of that “recruits” a lot is Mountain Brook... and they do some just not like Hoover and HT

of the star players on HT Quick is the only home grown one.  Tyson transfered from Mt Brook, Worsham from Gardendale, Johnson from St. Clair, and Goodwin from Florence.  

[AU64 10,122]

😀

yeah….our only import is an exchange student from Sweden who managed to make the it as a back-up RB and kick returner the first year he ever saw an American football game.   

[waaegl 64]

2 hours ago, AU64 said:

Did I hear correctly that 6 bama commits were playing in the H-T vs Thompson game last night?   Amazing?   

I couldn’t help but hear it. I think it was stated about 120 times during the game - a 3-hour bama lovefest.