Season (And a brief Lincoln Memorial) preview

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Its here (I'm so basketball starved I'm counting the exhibition as the start of the season), basketball is upon us. This is set up to be a very interesting year for Auburn basketball. Huge expectations,  but injuries, and roster turnover will present formidable challenges. I hope to resume posting previews and reviews this season, and observations as the season rocks along. However, life is busy and I make no guarantees. 

Let's start with a quick Lincoln Memorial preview:  Lincoln is highly ranked, but it is mostly hype from where they finished last season and their reputation of being competitive in their recent past. They lost four starters and six of their top performers from last year's team, and frankly, I'm not really sure what kind of team they have. Their starting point guard is good, and they have a kid from Phenix City Central High School. They are small and based on their point totals from last year, they play up-tempo and like to shoot the 3 ball (shooting 40% as a team making 11 per game). I would expect them to play a similar style this season and be hungry to have a shot at a preseason #11 AU team limping into the season. 

We come into this game down a few men. Wiley and Doughty are both out and McLemore is returning from injury (I have my doubts he is truly 100%). Purifoy is eligible to play in this game, and I would expect him to get decent minutes. Harper, Brown, Spencer, Dunbar, Okeke all return and we will get our first look at McCormick and maybe a few walk-ons. It will be interesting what Coach Pearl does with the rotations when Purifoy is on the bench to give some insight as to how we will play the early season while waiting on Doughty, Wiley, and Purifoy to return to action. Also will be interesting to see how many minutes Myles Parker gets. He is a walk-on small forward who has a pretty good resume for a walk-on. We may need him while Doughty and Purifoy are out. 

No matter the result, these games are teaching moments. This game will not be a cake walk. I don't expect to lose, but I won't panic if it happens. We will learn more from a struggle than if we blow them out of the gym. 

 

Thoughts on the season: My initial gut thought is this season will be better and worse than last. I don't think we win as many regular season games, nor do I think we win the league. However, if we get to the end of the season healthy, and chemistry develops along the way, I think we have better performances in the SEC and NCAA tournaments. The early part of the season will be a struggle until we are healthy, and/or get Purifoy back. If Doughty and Wiley's injuries linger, we could lose 4+ games before Purifoy gets back (based on the difficulty of the schedule). If they are truly healthy before the Maui invitation as reported, that number could be as low as 1 (I don't think we're good enough to beat Duke). 

Overall I'd project a record of 9-4 in the non-conference and project a record of 12-6 in league play for an overall record of 21-10. Good for probably 3rd or 4th in the league and a spot to the NCAA Tourney as a 6 seed or so.  

I'm very excited about all the potential talent on this roster, but I am very concerned with the chemistry issues with Wiley and Purifoy back. Add injury issues on top to start off the season and I can't be as high on us as I want to be. If the injury front is better than expected or at least not worse than reported, I'd improve my projections by a game or two, but if they are worse (particularly for Doughty) I'd decrease them as well. 

I can't recall the last time we won 20 games in back to back seasons, but nows our chance. 

 

War Eagle. 

 

[Gene Loblaw 636]

I’d be disappointed in a 9-4 non con record

[AU64 10,122]

2 hours ago, Gene Loblaw said:

I’d be disappointed in a 9-4 non con record

Yep but then again, we could be playing a lot of that part of our schedule with some players still in "recovery mode" and less than 100%. and look at the schedule...some very tough games....Xavier, Washington, Duke and a couple others before Purifoy is eligible......I'd be pretty happy if we only lost 4 of those. 

[cole256 17,043]

4 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Its here (I'm so basketball starved I'm counting the exhibition as the start of the season), basketball is upon us. This is set up to be a very interesting year for Auburn basketball. Huge expectations,  but injuries, and roster turnover will present formidable challenges. I hope to resume posting previews and reviews this season, and observations as the season rocks along. However, life is busy and I make no guarantees. 

Let's start with a quick Lincoln Memorial preview:  Lincoln is highly ranked, but it is mostly hype from where they finished last season and their reputation of being competitive in their recent past. They lost four starters and six of their top performers from last year's team, and frankly, I'm not really sure what kind of team they have. Their starting point guard is good, and they have a kid from Phenix City Central High School. They are small and based on their point totals from last year, they play up-tempo and like to shoot the 3 ball (shooting 40% as a team making 11 per game). I would expect them to play a similar style this season and be hungry to have a shot at a preseason #11 AU team limping into the season. 

We come into this game down a few men. Wiley and Doughty are both out and McLemore is returning from injury (I have my doubts he is truly 100%). Purifoy is eligible to play in this game, and I would expect him to get decent minutes. Harper, Brown, Spencer, Dunbar, Okeke all return and we will get our first look at McCormick and maybe a few walk-ons. It will be interesting what Coach Pearl does with the rotations when Purifoy is on the bench to give some insight as to how we will play the early season while waiting on Doughty, Wiley, and Purifoy to return to action. Also will be interesting to see how many minutes Myles Parker gets. He is a walk-on small forward who has a pretty good resume for a walk-on. We may need him while Doughty and Purifoy are out. 

No matter the result, these games are teaching moments. This game will not be a cake walk. I don't expect to lose, but I won't panic if it happens. We will learn more from a struggle than if we blow them out of the gym. 

 

Thoughts on the season: My initial gut thought is this season will be better and worse than last. I don't think we win as many regular season games, nor do I think we win the league. However, if we get to the end of the season healthy, and chemistry develops along the way, I think we have better performances in the SEC and NCAA tournaments. The early part of the season will be a struggle until we are healthy, and/or get Purifoy back. If Doughty and Wiley's injuries linger, we could lose 4+ games before Purifoy gets back (based on the difficulty of the schedule). If they are truly healthy before the Maui invitation as reported, that number could be as low as 1 (I don't think we're good enough to beat Duke). 

Overall I'd project a record of 9-4 in the non-conference and project a record of 12-6 in league play for an overall record of 21-10. Good for probably 3rd or 4th in the league and a spot to the NCAA Tourney as a 6 seed or so.  

I'm very excited about all the potential talent on this roster, but I am very concerned with the chemistry issues with Wiley and Purifoy back. Add injury issues on top to start off the season and I can't be as high on us as I want to be. If the injury front is better than expected or at least not worse than reported, I'd improve my projections by a game or two, but if they are worse (particularly for Doughty) I'd decrease them as well. 

I can't recall the last time we won 20 games in back to back seasons, but nows our chance. 

 

War Eagle. 

 

Great write up

[jared52 4,354]

Yeah, I think have to be realistic with the difficulty in the schedule so I’m on board with 21-10. AU Arena being built on an Indian burial ground ddoesnt help either 😂😱. Still think it’s going to be a fun season and hopefully March finds AU in a better position to make a run in both tournaments. 

[The Plainsman 948]

This is at minimum a 23 win team imo.

#WDE! 

[doverstutts 1,643]

3 minutes ago, The Plainsman said:

This is at minimum a 23 win team imo.

#WDE! 

gotta' do better than this 1st half....really ragged and lincolns foul trouble is all that bailed us out

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 11/1/2018 at 4:54 PM, JwgreDeux said:

Overall I'd project a record of 9-4 in the non-conference and project a record of 12-6 in league play for an overall record of 21-10. Good for probably 3rd or 4th in the league and a spot to the NCAA Tourney as a 6 seed or so. 

With one regular season game left, I was listening to talk about under achieving and expectations etc....  I’d say this team is almost as expected. The injuries have been off and on costing us games, not just early as expected. We are a bit worse in the league than expected but about right in track overall. 

Team also seems to be coming together at the right time. 

[AU64 10,122]

25 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

With one regular season game left, I was listening to talk about under achieving and expectations etc....  I’d say this team is almost as expected. The injuries have been off and on costing us games, not just early as expected. We are a bit worse in the league than expected but about right in track overall. 

Team also seems to be coming together at the right time. 

Expectations probably about right with regard to the record but huge inconsistencies was not expected by me at least.    As for the injuries...every team has them along the way....and you have to deal with them.   The big problem is other than AW we have no bigs to play the middle and last year's inside guy (AMac) has become a part-time shooting guard it seems.    In a very quiet way,  Okeke has been the man this year IMO..    He's my MVP..

Won some big games and let a couple get away that would have glossed up our record and NCAA seeding....but just getting there is good by AU standards. . 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 3/6/2019 at 8:57 AM, AU64 said:

Expectations probably about right with regard to the record but huge inconsistencies was not expected by me at least.    As for the injuries...every team has them along the way....and you have to deal with them.   The big problem is other than AW we have no bigs to play the middle and last year's inside guy (AMac) has become a part-time shooting guard it seems.    In a very quiet way,  Okeke has been the man this year IMO..    He's my MVP..

Won some big games and let a couple get away that would have glossed up our record and NCAA seeding....but just getting there is good by AU standards. . 

But all things considered, would you rather have last year's team or this year's team at this point in the season? I think we would all rather have this year's and that is progress, despite the inconsistencies at times. 

[AU64 10,122]

3 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

But all things considered, would you rather have last year's team or this year's team at this point in the season? I think we would all rather have this year's and that is progress, despite the inconsistencies at times. 

good question...and not sure that on balance there is much difference in "team potential" at this point. ...though we did finish weakly last year.     Ask me again tomorrow after the UT game..

[Tiger 8,818]

I'll take the overall health of our team right now. Last season we were hanging on by a thread since our team was so depleted. The 2019 version of our March roster (as it stands right now) is in better shape than the team exactly one year ago regardless of what happens tomorrow IMO.