Season Long Poll & NET (New RPI ) Thread

[AUBwins 10,064]

I don't think we will jump Tennessee.  If Kansas won by a healthy margin then maybe.  Tenn basically lost to the #2 about the same difference we lost to #1. Tenn actually led in their game and took them to overtime.  The top 5-8 teams may just stay status quo with maybe the exception of UNC.

[Gene Loblaw 636]

2 minutes ago, AUBwins said:

I don't think we will jump Tennessee.  If Kansas won by a healthy margin then maybe.  Tenn basically lost to the #2 about the same difference we lost to #1. Tenn actually led in their game and took them to overtime.  The top 5-8 teams may just stay status quo with maybe the exception of UNC.

Yeah. I don’t think we will either but AU does have way more quality wins than UT right now so it’s possible 

[ellitor 33,062]

22 hours ago, Gene Loblaw said:

Doubt it. Imagine AU will stay the same. No chance MSU or FSU jump us especially since MSU already has a loss and AU still has 3 quality wins.

Pollsters basically look at current week only. Spaty's loss was in the season opener against a team as respected as our loss in Kansas. Sparty won a tourney this week going 2-0 vs a ranked & soon to be ranked team. We went 2-1 playing only 1 ranked team albeit an elite team. FSU could go 4-0 this week including beating a ranked LSU & still very respected Nova if they win that tourney today.

23 hours ago, Gene Loblaw said:

What will be interesting is to see if AU jumps Tennessee in the polls after their loss to Kansas 

Nope. Pollsters will see our respective losses as a wash. Louisville still has enough respect for a win I think it keeps them above us.

[ellitor 33,062]

22 hours ago, Gene Loblaw said:

AU does have way more quality wins than UT right now.

That's how selection committee looks at things. Pollsters just typically look at what did you do this week.

[AUDub 11,131]

 

[ellitor 33,062]

Good call @Gene Loblaw. I was wrong & pleasantly surprised with the pollsters.

[ellitor 33,062]

AU is #16 in the first ever NET rankings. It has replaced the RPI & is now the standard the NCAA committee looks at for selections. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

[AUDub 11,131]

2 minutes ago, ellitor said:

AU is #16 in the first ever NET rankings. It has replaced the RPI & is now the standard the NCAA committee looks at for selections. https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Actually about where we are on RPI so that's probably a fair ranking.

NET overall looks a bit wonky early on, but it's early and doesn't have a good sample yet. Let's see how it looks after a few more weeks. 

[ellitor 33,062]

2 hours ago, AUDub said:

Actually about where we are on RPI

We are 9th on the RPI because RPI doesn't count non D1 games like the NET apparently does... http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/rpi-live

[AUDub 11,131]

Just now, ellitor said:

We are 9th on the RPI because RPI doesn't count non D1 games like the NET apparently does... http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/rpi-live

We've climbed since I last looked, I guess. I checked that this past weekend (Warren Nolan is also my go to) and it had us parked at 16th. 

[ellitor 33,062]

Just noticed in the coaches poll they apparently felt UK did something last week to jump us. I don't see it myself.

[ellitor 33,062]

34 minutes ago, AUDub said:

We've climbed since I last looked, I guess. I checked that this past weekend (Warren Nolan is also my go to) and it had us parked at 16th. 

Me too. U-Dub & Arizona moved a lot since I had looked Friday night. 50s to 28 & 94 to 60 respectively. That helped us in the RPI. U-Dub specifically gave us a Group 1 win for now in the RPI.

Group breakdowns in RPI vs NET FWIW

RPI

Group 1: 1-1
Group 2: 1-0
Group : 1-0
Group4: 1-0

NET

Group 1: 1-1
Group 2: 1-0
Group 3: 1-0
Group 4: 1-0

In the RPI U-Dub is a G1 win as stated above where it's a mid level G2 win on the NET. Zona is a low G2 win on the RPI but a G1 win on the NET. Xavier is a mid level G3 win in the RPI but a near G2 win on the NET.

 

Yes I'm a numbers nerd & damn proud of it!

[ellitor 33,062]

Looking at NC State shows something interesting. NC State has mostly pounded on weak teams so far & have been rewarded on the NET with a #31 ranking whereas they are 210 on the RPI. We get that one on the road & it will be a nice NET boost.

Also noticed the NET likes the SEC overall better than the RPI. SEC is an average 16 spots higher per team in the NET than the RPI right now.

[AUDub 11,131]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

Looking at NC State shows something interesting. NC State has mostly pounded on weak teams so far & have been rewarded on the NET with a #31 ranking whereas they are 210 on the RPI. We get that one on the road & it will be a nice NET boost.

Also noticed the NET likes the SEC overall better than the RPI. SEC is an average 16 spots higher per team in the NET than the RPI right now.

We'd better hope we don't drop either Dayton or NC State. One of those would sting us badly if we want a high seed. 

[ellitor 33,062]

18 minutes ago, AUDub said:

We'd better hope we don't drop either Dayton or NC State. One of those would sting us badly if we want a high seed. 

Potentially agree on Dayton because it's at home. On NC State it depends how they play out the season. The NET likes them a lot right now so that would be a quality road loss unless they tank in the ACC. FWIW the committee no longer uses the RPI in selection assessment.

[AUDub 11,131]

17 hours ago, ellitor said:

Potentially agree on Dayton because it's at home. On NC State it depends how they play out the season. The NET likes them a lot right now so that would be a quality road loss unless they tank in the ACC. FWIW the committee no longer uses the RPI in selection assessment.

Nate Silver is being pretty vocal about how much he dislikes NET. It may end up being a damn mess come selection Sunday. At least RPI, for all its faults, had a tendency to self correct from the wonkiness of the early rankings as the season wore on. Silver doesn't believe NET will. 

One wonders if they took the time to hindcast the model against prior seasons. Would be pretty laughable if it spat out something like Loyola Marymount as a 1 seed.

[Gene Loblaw 636]

 

we’re number 5 according to this nerd’s calculations

[ellitor 33,062]

37 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Nate Silver

[AUDub 11,131]

14 minutes ago, ellitor said:

The guy that runs FiveThirtyEight. Basically ESPN's numbers/stats wonk before he moved to ABC.

[homersapien 11,353]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/the-ncaa-ending-the-rpi-in-favor-of-the-net-is-a-long-overdue-overhaul-on-an-outdated-process/

Well, to this novice, NET sounds pretty good - as least qualitatively. (Of course, that's what they want you to think.)

But to be honest, my only takeaway from this discussion is the elation that comes from it being actually relevant for our BB program. 

 

[ellitor 33,062]

OP updated

12/3 Update: AU is #8 in both polls & #7 in the newest NET rankings. Also worth noting AU is #5 in the RPI & #8 in the KenPom rankings which many people in the basketball world think is the best rankings system out there.

Looks like the NET is starting to normalize some.

[lost 452]

On the NET rankings---   I am like Bruce, as i am down on the counting the amount of points you win by as a reference.  I think this really clouds the issue somewhat and puts undue pressure on every team .  It takes away the opportunity to award your scout team and hard workers a chance to play as now you will need to win by the biggest margin to insure Your NET ranking.  I know for the upper echelon it will not matter that much because the victories will be there, but even Bruce was saying he thought maybe this was not the best thing.....

[Gene Loblaw 636]

Net only factors point difference up to 10 points I believe. Anything higher than that doesn’t matter. The system isn’t set up to encourage blow outs. It’s just one more minor piece of data

[ellitor 33,062]

32 minutes ago, Gene Loblaw said:

Net only factors point difference up to 10 points I believe. Anything higher than that doesn’t matter. The system isn’t set up to encourage blow outs. It’s just one more minor piece of data

I believe this is correct.

[AUJedi 243]

I’ve not been keeping up with basketball lately as much as I should. But how is Kentucky ranked ahead of us in coaches poll. A team that lost by 30+ to Duke???