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weathergeakal

under Malzahn when scoring first vs P5

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I was thinking about how many times we have scored first under CGM and wondered what our record was when we indeed score first. So Excluding non-P5 teams (I included UCF & Memphis due to it being a bowl game) I calculated the recorded.  Auburn has played 52 games vs P5 teams under CGM and in 36 of those (69.23 %), AU has scored first. Now let us look at the results of those 36 games.

 

 

Mississippi State 2013: 24-20 W

Ole Miss 2013: 30-22 W

@Arkansas 2013 35-17 W

Georgia 2013: 43-38 W

Alabama 2013: 34-28 W

Arkansas 2014:45-21 W

@Kansas State 2014:20-14 W

LSU 2014: 41-7 W

@Ole Miss 2014:35-31 W

@Georgia 2014: 34-7 L

Louisville 2015: 31-24 W

@UK 2015: 30-27 W

Georgia 2015: 20-13 L

Memphis 2015: 31-10 W

Clemson 2016: 19-13 L

Texas A&M 2016: 29-16 L

LSU 2016: 18-13 W

@Mississippi State 2016: 38-14 W

Arkansas 2016: 56-3 W

@Georgia 2016: 13-7 L

@Alabama 2016: 30-12 L

Oklahoma 2016: 35-19 L

@Clemson 2017: 14-6 L

@Mizzou 2017: 51-14 W

Mississippi State 2017: 49-10 W

Ole Miss 2017: 44-23 W

@LSU 2017: 27-23 L

@Arkansas 2017: 52-20 W

Alabama 2017: 26-14 W

Georgia SECG 2017: 28-7 L

UCF 2017: 34-27 L

Washington 2018: 21-16 W

Arkansas 2018: 34-3 W

@Mississippi State 2018: 23-9 L

Tennesee 2018: 30-24 L

@Ole Miss 2018: 31-16 W

 

Final Record: 23-13 (63.89%) 

Now IMO that is not good that you are only winning 63% of your games that you score first in. Now one thing that stood out to me was how many games we have scored first in since 2016. Since 2016 we have played 28 P5 teams (Including UCF) and we have scored first in 22 of those(78.57%). In those 22 games, we are 11-11( 50%). Now that is terrible. But that also means we were 12-2 (85%) pre-2016. So why are we doing so bad since 2016? 

 

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I think I’m stat overwhelmed at this point in the season.  None of this makes sense.  Can we have a context of average to see if it’s good or bad.  Like what is the average record for teams that score first or win percentage or whatever.   

Heck we may score first in the Bama game that doesn’t mean we are the better team.  

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1 hour ago, gr82b4au said:

Because the first few drives are usually scripted and we score quite often. Then the team we are playing adjusts and we Stop scoring. 

Even opposing coaches are saying this...watch KS in the post game interview.  He says that Gus goes by a script and they adjust.  Very telling! 

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