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StatTiger

Iron Bowl Report Card

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The 2018 regular season is mercifully over with as Auburn awaits their destination for this season's bowl game. It was another predictable game plan against Auburn's biggest rival and was smothered as predicted. During his five games against Georgia and Alabama, 95 of Jarrett Stidham's 150 pass attempts have been within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage (63.3 percent). Stidham threw only 11 passes beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage during those five games, completing only two. Auburn had some early success running the football but not at the level the Tigers could build anything substantial. Auburn managed only three impact plays on offense, which would have never been enough to be competitive against a team like Alabama. Once Alabama went up 31-14 in the third quarter, Auburn ran the ball 11 of 13 times on the first down. When Alabama increased their lead to 45-21, it was evident Malzahn was satisfied with running the clock to avoid any additional scoring. 

 

The Auburn defense played its worst game of the season, allowing 500-yards on only 59 snaps. It was the first time from 1961-2018 (685 games), an Auburn defense allowed 500-yard of offense on less than 60 snaps. After allowing 184-yards on 37 snaps during the first half, Auburn surrendered 316 yards on just 22 snaps during the second-half. Auburn could not apply any pressure on Alabama's quarterbacks, and the secondary was toasted, giving up seven pass plays of 20-yards or more. Credit should be given to Alabama, fielding one of the most explosive pass offenses in the country. Alabama had only 123-yards rushing, which would typically result in a loss in the Iron Bowl. Fifteen times during the last 56 Iron Bowls, Alabama was held to under 130-yards rushing. Auburn won 11 of those 15 games, allowing an average of 18 points per game against UAT. Alabama's quick-strike ability in their passing game is one of the primary reasons they are favored to win yet another National Championship. 

 

The result was not surprising as Alabama entered the games as a 24-point favorite to win the game. What was disappointing was another big game, where Gus Malzahn refused to attack the opponent's secondary downfield. The last two years, the pass offense has become way too reliant upon the short passing game. It is the primary reason why Malzahn must relinquish control of the offense should he return as the head coach in 2019. Since 2014, Auburn is 5-14 against FBS teams with a winning record, when the offense runs for under 200-yards. During those 19 games, Auburn's pass offense averaged 187-yards and 19 points per game. Auburn completed only 55 percent of their passes for 6.5 yards per attempt, which included only 16 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Malzahn was given the opportunity to correct the passing issues after the 2016 season but he elected to hire an inexperienced offensive coordinator. Only time will tell if he makes the necessary changes on the offensive side of the football.           

War Eagle!

 

Game #12 Statistical Evaluation (Alabama Game)

Offensive Report Card

01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [3.6] fail
02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs:  [50.0%] pass
03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush:  [3.0] fail
04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions:  [21.4%] fail
05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%:  [28.5%] pass
06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [4.8 yds] fail
07) Score at least 75% inside red zone:  [100.0%] pass
08) TD red zone above 60%:  [100.0%] pass
09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession:  [20.2 yds] fail
10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [20.0%] fail
11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6:  [3 / 1] pass
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps:  [25.0] fail
13) At least 8 impact plays:  (3) fail
14) At least 2 big plays:  (1) fail
15) Pass rating of at least 126.3:  [101.4] fail

16) Yards to Point Ratio of 14.0 or under: [13.4] pass 

Score: 6 of 16 (37.5%) FAIL

  
Defensive Report Card:

01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [9.1] fail
02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs:  [45.4%] fail
03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less:  [4.7] fail
04) Score  1/3 of possessions or below:  [61.5%] fail
05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%:  [30.7%] fail
06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [11.4 yds] fail
07) Score below 75% inside red zone:  [100.0%] fail
08) TD red zone below 60%:  [66.7%] fail
09) Avg under 30-yards per possession:  [38.5 yds] fail
10) 40% or less of offensive snaps part of scoring drives:  [67.8%] fail
11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6:  [7 / 0] fail
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps:  [8.4] fail
13) Less than 8 impact plays:  (9) fail
14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: (4) fail
15) Pass rating below 125.0:  [234.7] fail

16) Yards to point ratio of 18.0 or higher: [9.6] fail 

Score: 0 of 16 (0.0%) FAIL



Special Teams Report Card:

1) Punt Average (Above 41.3):  [40.3] fail
2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [0.0] pass
3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [2.0] fail
4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [N/A]
5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [21.7] fail
6) PAT’s (100%): [3/3] pass
7) FG Pct (75% or above): [N/A%]

Score: 2 of 5 (40.0%) FAIL

 

* 50% is a passing score.

 

 

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Thanks Stat, as always.  Unfortunately, the report card makes it worse than it seemed.  0 out of 16 on defense?  I can't ever remember our defense scoring a 0. 

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Gus should be required to answer the questions these stats present. AD Greene use the above data when evaluating the coach.

How can Gus not be embarrassed, ashamed and shocked at how bad a job he has done.

After the game only Steele took responsibility for the pathetic display.

 

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3 hours ago, StatTiger said:

It is the primary reason why Malzahn must relinquish control of the offense should he return as the head coach in 2019.

Please Santa! Please!

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